Assessing the Twins' Signing of Carlos Correa

[Ted Schwerzler]

Let’s all take a collective deep breath here first; they did it. They really did it! In back-to-back offseasons, the Minnesota Twins landed arguably the greatest free agent available. Carlos Correa is staying in Minnesota.

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

As reported this morning by Jeff Passan, the Minnesota Twins have officially agreed to terms with Carlos Correa. No, it’s not the $300+ million deal that the San Francisco Giants or New York Mets initially agreed to, but it is the largest contract this franchise has ever handed out to a free agent. Correa is locked in at six years and $200 million with a no-trade clause and no opt-outs through his age-33 season. The deal includes vesting options for years seven through ten, which could bring the total value to $270 million.

The negotiations over the past several weeks have been an absolute whirlwind. From the time the New York Mets expressed concern over Correas health, through weeks of negotiations decreasing the guaranteed money, Minnesota remained persistent. Their efforts finally paid off Monday night when Correa's agent Scott Boras ended conversations with the Mets.

Rocco Baldelli now has a significant amount of certainty regarding his infield on Opening Day. While Royce Lewis remains out for at least the first half of the year, Correa will play shortstop into the foreseeable future. Jorge Polanco is locked in as the starting second baseman, and Minnesota wants Jose Miranda to play the hot corner. It’s conceivable that Joey Gallo could factor in at first base, or it could be a combination of Luis Arraez and Alex Kirilloff. Either way, only the long-term replacement of Miguel Sano is truly up in the air.

For Minnesota, the revolving door at shortstop is over. Yes, they acquired Kyle Farmer to set a baseline this offseason, but he’ll now be pushed to more of a utility role. Correa starts at short for the second straight Opening Day. No Minnesota shortstop has made three consecutive Opening Day starts since Cristian Guzman last did so in 2004. That level of fluctuation has never been a good thing at such a premium position.

Last year Correa showed an immeasurable amount of leadership and production in the clubhouse. His 4.4 fWAR led the team, and Steamer projections have him coming in at 4.9 fWAR for 2023. Still entering his prime, there is no reason why Minnesota can’t see Correa replicating the 6.0 fWAR season he previously put up with the Houston Astros or potentially pushing the bar even further and winning an MVP.

The clubhouse has to be elated to get such a rare monumental talent back for the long haul. Polanco, Arraez, and Miranda all found themselves on FaceTime with Correa during the Twins jersey reveal at Mall of America, and it’s clear this group is more than excited to have him still on their team. Outfielder Byron Buxton took to Twitter to show his emotions as well.

For the rest of the roster, there is a bit of fallout to deal with. Correa, as mentioned, likely pushes Farmer to a utility role. Unfortunately, that impacts Nick Gordon the most. He could factor in as an extra outfielder, but the bat of Kyle Garlick could be a bigger draw. On the infield, it’s both Lewis and Brooks Lee that see a bit of an adjustment. Lee has yet to debut and now may have the luxury of more time to develop. Lewis has plenty of runway to clear before his health is restored, but he has positional flexibility already built-in with his athleticism.

It remains to be seen what the Twins will do on the trade market. Their outfield seems packed, and now there are some assets on the infield that competitors could covet in trade. At this point, Minnesota is better off having Correa in their clubhouse, and they can shuffle the pieces as they need to when the time comes.

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[EGFTShaw]

What I think got it done, (but remember none of this would have happened if SFG/NYM hadn't balked at the physical), is the FO's ability to be flexible.  It helps having a ton of salary space.

But they basically took a $35M "date" last year and found it that a long-term relationship had potential.

I like this signing for many reasons I have already espoused on this site before.
 

• Leadership
• Defense
• Hitting
• Solidifying our long running SS problem.
• Sliding Farmer into a super utility role.
• RH bat

Now if the Baseball Gods, (and they are fickler than Loki himself), smile upon the health of the Twins we should be a fun team to watch.

I am not penciling us in to Win the division, yet, but the Central Division maybe the easiest division to win.

TC Bear: "Skol"

[DJL44]

I think Correa is going to have a chip on his shoulder for a while. Prove them all wrong, Carlos.

[jmlease1]

It's a pretty great deal for the Twins. The shorter term works for them and they have the payroll space now to front-load this contract for his prime years. 4 years on the back end if it vests at an AAV of less than $20M should look pretty reasonable assuming Correa continues to hit and stay reasonably healthy. There's still real risk with this deal, but they've mitigated it pretty reasonably considering the caliber of the player they are getting. But there's always going to be risk with any long-term deal, and sometimes you have to roll the dice. Correa is worth it, especially right now.

So nice not to have to worry about SS for a while. Correa checks every box; literally the only issue is whether or not he can stay healthy for the duration of the deal. You know what? That issue exists for every other SS who signed this offseason. I wish no ill on Dansby Swanson, but if he tears his ACL in year 2 of his deal...yikes.

Correa is a leader, a complete player who adds plus offense at the plate and elite defense in the field. I'm thrilled to have him back and glad the Twins stuck it out, accepted the risk, and made it happen.

[chpettit19]

Reports are that it's a frontloaded deal. Love that. Looks like it's 36, 36, 36, 31.5, 30.5, 30 then the vesting options kick in (basically has to be a full time player the season before) at 25, 20, 15, and 10.

This doesn't make them instant contenders as the key is still health and production from the young guys. Buxton and Correa signed for less than 50 million a year combined with a whole bunch of young position players around them on pre-arb and arb deals is a great situation in my eyes. Young guys need to stay healthy and produce. Same with pitchers. This team's future was always going to be dependant on the young guys stepping up. Correa and Buxton (talent-wise) are awfully nice supplements to the new, young core.

[Trov]

Once the contract is officially signed, reports are we are much closer physical wise than other teams were, there will be domino of trades I am thinking.  We will clear up our OF, someone will get dealt I think, and someone on right side of IF will get moved I think as well. 

[jmlease1]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Reports are that it's a frontloaded deal. Love that. Looks like it's 36, 36, 36, 31.5, 30.5, 30 then the vesting options kick in (basically has to be a full time player the season before) at 25, 20, 15, and 10.

This doesn't make them instant contenders as the key is still health and production from the young guys. Buxton and Correa signed for less than 50 million a year combined with a whole bunch of young position players around them on pre-arb and arb deals is a great situation in my eyes. Young guys need to stay healthy and produce. Same with pitchers. This team's future was always going to be dependant on the young guys stepping up. Correa and Buxton (talent-wise) are awfully nice supplements to the new, young core.

If the vesting option on the last 4 years doesn't kick in unless CC plays essentially a full season in year 6 of this deal then the Twins have done an excellent job of mitigating the risk.

Teams frequently prefer to defer money to later in a deal, and from a pure finance standpoint that makes sense (a dollar now is generally "worth" more than a dollar in 5 years), but in terms of roster and payroll management, front-loading can really help you out. I like this structure quite a bit.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

This is great news. If I were a pitcher, I would want to pitch on a team which has a Platinum Glove CF and a Platinum Glove SS. And an experienced catcher who has a reputation for being good with the pitching staff. And a young super stud closer. 

[HerbieFan]

I don't care what anyone...or anything...or any stats say.  It's Carlos Correa.  And he'll be with the Twins for the next 6 years.  Mic drop......

[mikelink45]

I like the adjustment in years - this is what makes sense.  Good luck to Correa to stay in top shape.  When you look at the impacts I have to say I prefer Gordon to so who do we off load one of these to.  

I am stuck with Gallo so some of my desires will be circumvented since I want Arraez, Kiriloff, and Larnach all in the lineup.  Of course the question mark is Kepler. 

[2wins87]

56 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Reports are that it's a frontloaded deal. Love that. Looks like it's 36, 36, 36, 31.5, 30.5, 30 then the vesting options kick in (basically has to be a full time player the season before) at 25, 20, 15, and 10.

This doesn't make them instant contenders as the key is still health and production from the young guys. Buxton and Correa signed for less than 50 million a year combined with a whole bunch of young position players around them on pre-arb and arb deals is a great situation in my eyes. Young guys need to stay healthy and produce. Same with pitchers. This team's future was always going to be dependant on the young guys stepping up. Correa and Buxton (talent-wise) are awfully nice supplements to the new, young core.

Do we know that these are simple vesting options or is it a vesting player option?

If he ends up proving to be pretty healthy and productive through his age 33 season I could still see him getting much more than $70 million in the FA market.  I'd be a little surprised if Correa and Boras wouldn't at least want the option to potentially leverage that later on.

[Oldtimer]

With an apparent abundance of middle infield talent now....is it now time to  consider a trade to strengthen the pitching staff.?

[Minfidel]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I think Correa is going to have a chip on his shoulder for a while. Prove them all wrong, Carlos.

I hope he keeps the chip on his shoulder for 10 years. 

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Do we know that these are simple vesting options or is it a vesting player option?

If he ends up proving to be pretty healthy and productive through his age 33 season I could still see him getting much more than $70 million in the FA market.  I'd be a little surprised if Correa and Boras wouldn't at least want the option to potentially leverage that later on.

Everything I've seen is that they're all vesting options based on him getting 502 PAs the season before. No options or opt outs in the deal. It's certainly early so reports may be wrong, but multiple reports are saying they're straight up vesting options based on PAs the season before.

Edited: Dan Hayes is reporting they're vesting options at 575, 550, 525, and 502 PAs. If he doesn't hit those marks they become team options. So Correa has no outs, but Twins can keep him if he only gets to 574 in 2029, etc. 

[jmlease1]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Everything I've seen is that they're all vesting options based on him getting 502 PAs the season before. No options or opt outs in the deal. It's certainly early so reports may be wrong, but multiple reports are saying they're straight up vesting options based on PAs the season before.

If that's correct, it's an excellent stipulation for the team that really does protect them pretty nicely. And considering how much lower the dollars are in those last 4 years...it's a very good structure for the Twins. And to be very honest, front-loading money is very good for Correa too, unless he gets ripped off by his money managers.

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

If that's correct, it's an excellent stipulation for the team that really does protect them pretty nicely. And considering how much lower the dollars are in those last 4 years...it's a very good structure for the Twins. And to be very honest, front-loading money is very good for Correa too, unless he gets ripped off by his money managers.

I had to edit that comment. I was behind on my twitter checking. Dan Hayes is reporting they're vesting options at 575, 550, 525, and 502 PAs. If he doesn't hit those marks they become team options. So Correa has no outs, but Twins can keep him if he only gets to 574 in 2028, etc. Looks absolutely wonderful for Twins. Full no trade for Correa.

[jmlease1]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I had to edit that comment. I was behind on my twitter checking. Dan Hayes is reporting they're vesting options at 575, 550, 525, and 502 PAs. If he doesn't hit those marks they become team options. So Correa has no outs, but Twins can keep him if he only gets to 574 in 2029, etc. Looks absolutely wonderful for Twins. Full no trade for Correa.

That's pretty great for the Twins. I don't worry about no-trade clauses like this; they can always get waived. But the structure makes so much sense for the Twins. They're not locked into a bunch of years after Correa turns 40 (there are so few players that have hit well at that age, let alone be effective defensively at any position), they've got outs if he can't stay on the field, they don't have to worry about him opting out if he has an MVP-type year in year 2, and the bulk of the money is located in his prime years.

And I really really like Correa as a player. There aren't that many players at SS who can hit like Correa does. Heck, there aren't that many 3Bs that hit like he does. He's a player you can build around.

I bashed the FO pretty hard for appearing to whiff on Correa and seeming to settle for Vazquez and Gallo. But in the end, they got it done on Correa (pending physical, lol) and this offseason has gone from poor to great in a hurry. I'm still not sold on Gallo (and the plethora of LH corner OFs) but if they can make another move to bolster things from the right side and solidify the bullpen, then I feel awfully good about this offseason.

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

That's pretty great for the Twins. I don't worry about no-trade clauses like this; they can always get waived. But the structure makes so much sense for the Twins. They're not locked into a bunch of years after Correa turns 40 (there are so few players that have hit well at that age, let alone be effective defensively at any position), they've got outs if he can't stay on the field, they don't have to worry about him opting out if he has an MVP-type year in year 2, and the bulk of the money is located in his prime years.

And I really really like Correa as a player. There aren't that many players at SS who can hit like Correa does. Heck, there aren't that many 3Bs that hit like he does. He's a player you can build around.

I bashed the FO pretty hard for appearing to whiff on Correa and seeming to settle for Vazquez and Gallo. But in the end, they got it done on Correa (pending physical, lol) and this offseason has gone from poor to great in a hurry. I'm still not sold on Gallo (and the plethora of LH corner OFs) but if they can make another move to bolster things from the right side and solidify the bullpen, then I feel awfully good about this offseason.

I think the no trade clause is a great sign that Correa wants to be here (I mean he was always going to chase the money, but the idea that he was lying about enjoying his time here seems to be refuted by asking for an ntc). The contract structure is better than anything I could've imagined. It's absolutely perfect for the Twins.

I bashed the FO for ignoring other players in hopes of him accepting 10/285. And I stand by that. There's no way they thought he was going to lose 2 contracts of 300+ and fall in their laps again. They lucked into this. But I'm glad they did. I hope there's some moves to be made to better balance the lineup (have to trade a LH OF) and add more controllable pitching if possible. I hope they don't go too crazy, though. I still wouldn't be willing to deal Lewis, Lee, or Rodriguez unless they're getting someone like Alcantara (never happening) or Gallen who are controllable past 2025. Don't destroy the little elite high minors (plus Rodriguez) depth they have to chase 2023 without a plan for the rotation in 2024 and beyond.

[twinstalker]

I haven't seen it reported, but the obvious thing here is that Correa will have an option each year to accept the vesting guarantee or opt for free agency.  He's not going to kick butt for 9 years, say, and accept $10 million that 10th season, which is what the vesting guarantees.

And that's totally fine.  If the Twins get five mostly healthy seasons out of the next six, they made a good deal.  If they get three or less, it could be a blocker to adding other talent.  The fact that the Mets were willing to go six years makes me feel better.

[SanoMustGo]

Move farmer to 2nd, and let Gordon be super utility(both IF & OF).  Work out a trade using Polanco and whoever else to get more pitching.  Even if this team has league average health, they will win at least 85 games.  Possibly more if some of the prospects develop.  Let's hope for better health this season.  The way things are now, I full expect some sort of trade.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

I haven't seen it reported, but the obvious thing here is that Correa will have an option each year to accept the vesting guarantee or opt for free agency.  He's not going to kick butt for 9 years, say, and accept $10 million that 10th season, which is what the vesting guarantees.

And that's totally fine.  If the Twins get five mostly healthy seasons out of the next six, they made a good deal.  If they get three or less, it could be a blocker to adding other talent.  The fact that the Mets were willing to go six years makes me feel better.

There have been reports that there's no opt outs included for Correa. The vesting options turn to team options if he doesn't hit the needed PAs the season before. Based on everything out there Correa is with the Twins for 6 seasons no matter what, and he has no control over the 4 after that.

[tony&rodney]

It is a solid gamble at the correct time for the Twins because of the number of young players and health risks.

[twinstalker]

37 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

There have been reports that there's no opt outs included for Correa. The vesting options turn to team options if he doesn't hit the needed PAs the season before. Based on everything out there Correa is with the Twins for 6 seasons no matter what, and he has no control over the 4 after that.

I still doubt that Correa will have no choice but to accept a bad salary.  Why even put that in the contract, if you're Boras?  I can see the first year or two, maybe, because that's just making up for paying so much up front,  Maybe you're right, but I have to believe Correa won't be playing for $10 million then.  He'd probably retire.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, twinstalker said:

I still doubt that Correa will have no choice but to accept a bad salary.  Why even put that in the contract, if you're Boras?  I can see the first year or two, maybe, because that's just making up for paying so much up front,  Maybe you're right, but I have to believe Correa won't be playing for $10 million then.  He'd probably retire.

It's early enough that the reports could be wrong, but the amount of detail in the reports certainly lend them to be believable. If the deal is as reported he will truly have no choice but to accept 10 million (when he's 38 years old, by the way, so it's not like he's going to be a great player still) or retire.

Their goal was to get as much guaranteed money as possible, and then tack on the best chances they could of adding more money on top of that. From other reports, the Mets dropped down to 157 million guaranteed for 6 years, then options on the next 6 years. They also wanted him to pass a physical every year or be able to void his deal (Jon Heyman I believe was the source on that report). It sounds like 200 million was the most guaranteed that he could get. So he took his 200 million since his ankle isn't likely to look better on scans after next year. It's pretty crazy how far he fell in terms of money. 350 to 200 in less than a month. Yikes.

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

Correa won't be playing for $10 million then.  He'd probably retire.

Baseball players work extremely hard to excel at their jobs and as shown years ago they would play for nearly nothing to stay in the game. Free agency changed the money but these athletes still had to earn their way up through the system. In ten years Correa would most certainly be thrilled to still be playing baseball and bringing home $10 million would just be an added bonus/treat. 

[ashbury]

24 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Baseball players work extremely hard to excel at their jobs and as shown years ago they would play for nearly nothing to stay in the game. Free agency changed the money but these athletes still had to earn their way up through the system. In ten years Correa would most certainly be thrilled to still be playing baseball and bringing home $10 million would just be an added bonus/treat. 

If he's (still) on a HoF track by that point in his career, an extra year of counting-stats could be appealing to him. As for the money, I think he already has set up a charitable foundation, and each additional year of earnings might in his eyes be "for the kids" or whatever way he directs his donations. Those strike me as a couple of good reasons he would put off retiring if he's physically capable, even though the earnings peak is long past.

[rv78]

Through it all the Twins FO got lucky two years in a row. No way did they seriously try to sign Correa until he fell into their lap a 2nd time. The fact that they got it done with really only a 6 year commitment shows that Correa and Boras were both getting desperate. Now the FO has to hope that the ankle issue does not make them look like fools. One thing is for sure, Falvine does not view injuries as a problem, which bit them in the backside bigtime in 2022. Only time will tell if it does again.

[Elliot]

Good move. I am happy. Unless something very significant has happened to his ankle, I am really not worried about $36M/yr for his age 28, 29, and 30 seasons. The backend of the contract now covers his ages 31 thru 33. Bad things can take place, but I like the odds a lot better than the other 3 SS being anything but a financial drain for the last half of their contracts in their upper 30’s. 
I know. $25/M/ year can sooth a lot of hurt feelings, but I wonder how much thought they give to playing out the last 4 or 5 years of their careers like Miguel Cabrera; a financial drain with no way to contribute. Albert Pujols was the same story, but will be remembered for his storybook final month. 
Overall, I think it is the rare win/win in MLB contracts. Much like Buxton. Maybe it is time to give this FO some credit. 

[Melissa]

Happy household here! Exploring “shared season ticket” options….

[Fat Calvin]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I think Correa is going to have a chip on his shoulder for a while. Prove them all wrong, Carlos.

If anyone should have a chip, it's the Twins, the fans.  He dumped us twice for coastal elites.  We're not even the maid of honor; we're the second bridesmaid!  But I hope nobody has a chip.  I hope we follow the words of the Bard: All's well that ends well.