Are the Twins Frontrunners for Carlos Correa?

[Ted Schwerzler]

While it has always been unlikely that Correa would wind up back in Minnesota, and it remains unlikely, this is probably as close as it has felt to them looking like a front-runner.

 

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

 

It wasn’t supposed to go this way for Carlos Correa. He spent the last offseason seeking a long-term deal over $300 million. He never got that and instead settled for a one-year contract that paid him the highest average annual value we’ve ever seen for an infielder. Now, still unsigned on January 8, his long-term prognosis has been scrutinized, and sources continue to indicate that Minnesota could be the benefactor. 

It has been multiple weeks since reports trickled in that Carlos Correa would be signing a 12-year, $315 million deal with the New York Mets. They were a late suitor to the party, but stood there with a wad of cash after the San Francisco Giants wanted to rework their 13-year, $350 million offer following a physical. We now know that the issues stemming from the physical all tie back to an ankle that was surgically repaired as a prospect, and the Twins have seen the same information.

According to a source, Minnesota is now using the physical to their advantage. Correa was already cleared last March for what was a three-year contract. As recently as Saturday morning another offer was made. While the deal would still likely require a physical, the Twins have indicated they are comfortable with where Correa’s health and body are. 

Coming into the season, Minnesota knew that Correa would opt out after one season unless he played poorly or was injured. They sought to keep him on a long-term contract, ultimately offering 10-years, $285 million. That didn’t reach the same realm as either the Giants or Mets, and therefore left the Twins short. Prior to San Francisco making their last push, the Twins felt well positioned. Although that may have been shortsighted, it appears the chances may now be higher than ever.

New York is looking to rework Correa’s deal, and a source indicated that language protecting the Mets meant his guaranteed money could be cut by as much as one-third. Correa is looking for long-term certainty, and the Mets adding conditions to exit the deal after seven years would be a non-starter. Although the Twins $285 million over 10 years was originally well short on dollars, it’s now in the ballpark of (or even exceeding) the truly guaranteed money.

A source indicated the latest offer, which is thought to give Minnesota very firm footing, is in the range of that previous final offer. 

With New York reluctant on the length at this point, and with alternatives in top prospects Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, the Mets backing out altogether is not unfathomable. Mets owner Steve Cohen recently liked a tweet suggesting that the player needs his team more than the team needs him. Although that may be true for a franchise that has Francisco Lindor at shortstop and would be pushing Correa to the hot corner, it’s certainly not an ideal way to go about welcoming talent.

From the get-go, Minnesota has made Correa and his family feel welcomed and a priority. Again, the front office has stood steadfast in holding close to an original offer despite multiple cutbacks from organizations that have since gotten cold feet. The Twins are growing increasingly comfortable that Boras is not simply playing with the Twins as leverage for the Mets. Instead, he has grown annoyed with the proceedings, wants resolution in the coming days, and Minnesota may even now be the frontrunner.

It’s a wait-and-see game regarding Cohen and his unlimited amount of dollars. Whether general manager Billy Eppler wants to push forward or not remains to be seen, but the Mets have acted at the last minute multiple times during this saga.

Knowing that players like Manny Machado and Shohei Ohtani will be free agents next offseason has helped to keep some of the biggest markets out of this race. Minnesota won’t be in consideration for those two, and this represents their best chance to make a splash of this caliber. Correa’s dollars could come in nearly $100 million more than Joe Mauer’s hometown extension, and seeing that type of commitment would be welcomed by Twins Territory.

While it has always been unlikely that Correa would wind up back in Minnesota, and it remains unlikely, this is probably as close as it has felt to them looking like a front-runner.

 

 

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[PseudoSABR]

Quote

 A source indicated the latest offer, which is thought to give Minnesota very firm footing, is for $275 million over nine years. 

JUST. GET. IT. DONE.

[Eris]

I think it would be a mistake for the Twins to offer a 9 year deal that was not contingent on a physical especially since both the Giants and the Mets had enough concerns to scuttle their deals with Correa. 

[IA Bean Counter]

It’s one year 30mil too much if that’s the contract, compared to what he could get elsewhere and with the risk of the ankle.  I will be very curious to see if they front load salary and how many opt outs there will be.  

[lukeduke1980]

It should probably be fine if it's front loaded.  40 per for 5 years, 20 per on the last 4, roughly.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Why back off of the 10 year, $285 million offer? Why would the Twins do that if they really are convinced the 10 year/$285 offer was fair  a month ago and if the Twins have no new medical info to consider? Seems like a poor way to negotiate by the Twins. It is difficult to lower an offer "for no reason" and expect the player to jump, all over it. It would leave a bad taste in the player's mouth if that is the case. 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

"As recently as Saturday morning another offer was made, and Minnesota is not making the deal contingent upon a new physical."

This seems like trouble.

[IA Bean Counter]

As a note Jim Bowden on mlb radio stated Correa would sign a deal with the Mets they were just finalizing details, supposedly this was from someone close to Correa, relative maybe?  I think this will be over by Monday night one way or another.  

[High heat]

That 270 over 9 yrs seems about right. Even giving him an opt out after 3 yrs.  That comes out as 30 mi per yr. 
 

Twins should be comfortable with his health and should already have his physical and aware of such rod in his ankle.  They should have known about it before signing the last deal even if it didn’t scare them off because it was only a 3 yr deal.  

[Brandon27]

Just sign him get this drama over with so they can do trades for pitching 

[PseudoSABR]

 

 

[Ted Schwerzler]

36 minutes ago, Eris said:

I think it would be a mistake for the Twins to offer a 9 year deal that was not contingent on a physical especially since both the Giants and the Mets had enough concerns to scuttle their deals with Correa. 

There will still be a physical, they just trust what they already know. The 10 year deal was offered knowing his injury history.

[Ted Schwerzler]

26 minutes ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

"As recently as Saturday morning another offer was made, and Minnesota is not making the deal contingent upon a new physical."

This seems like trouble.

This was edited to better explain. Yes, there would be a physical, but they are comfortable with what they already know and have stated that to him.

[Fatbat]

Whatever the final amount of $$$ correa gets, he will be an asset to any clubhouse he is in. 5 years from now, it will probably look like a bargain if we get him for 9/$275ish. It would also be nice to beat the mets in the WS in one of those years ?

[sun]

The Twins were offering multiple contract lengths from the beginning. If Correa wants to bet on himself  after he gets his guaranteed money then I'll be happy for him & the Twins. Both parties need to take what they can get. I'm glad that the disclaimer was stated that it's unlikely to get done because that's a good reality check. Let's wait for the news to be official.

[Dman]

If 9/270 is the offer I think given the circumstances that is more than a fair deal with all the balking other teams are doing.  Still I would offer a 10th year as a team option with 10M buyout just to be sure.

From what I have read online and no one knows for sure but it seems like the Mets are fine with the first 7 years at the 26.25 AAV they offered on the initial 12 year deal so that puts them comfortable with the first 184M of this deal.  If they want injury protection on the leg for the next 5 years and lets say that means they pay half of the 26.25 for the next 5 years then that comes out to around 250M after 12 years so not that far off of the Twins offer granted with more years.  If the Mets we willing to stretch to 9 years like the Twins with only 3 years of discount if injury to the leg then their deal comes out even closer to what MN if offering at about 280M through 12 years.  So I don't think this thing is a done deal for Minnesota yet.

I mean I know players need to be excited about the team that ponies up the money for them but I am a little surprised that given how much he supposedly liked MN that his camp is so willing to work toward the Mets versus MN.  Maybe Boras needs to keep Cohn happy as he is likely to have more clients that need big money contracts and the higher markets are better to work with.

Running the numbers I still think MN falls just short but not as short as I originally believed.  Turns out the FO had a good offer from the start I just couldn't see it at the time.  If Correa wants to be a Met he will be Met if wants to be a Twin he will be a Twin.  The Twins did their part as Correa asked them to.  Will he do his part?  That remains to be seen.

[Heiny]

I really hate the long term contracts.  I think anything over 6 years is to long except in cases like Buxton where you have lower guarenteed money and great bonuses for great performance.  That being said, I think that unfortunately this is the world we currently live in.  And "that being said", I would like to see the Twins sign Correa but only if it doesn't prevent the Twins from giving extensions to some of our deserving young players in 4 or 5 years.  If we don't get Correa, then go with what we have.  I like alot of our young prospects and hope to see them do well.

[Minderbinder]

"The Twins are growing increasingly comfortable that Boras is not simply playing with the Twins as leverage for the Mets."

The vic is always the last to know....

[jmlease1]

As I've stated before, I'd take the risk on Correa. 10/$285? 9/$275? fine. Would do those deals.

But I don't think it's going to happen, and I don't think the twins are any kind of front-runner. There's still a chance that the Twins will end up with Correa and the Mets will end up either backing out or throwing up enough conditions and clauses that Correa walks away, but the odds are still against the Twins.

Correa is a great player, and I think he's going to be a great player for the next 3-4 years at an absolute minimum. I think he'll likely age better than most, as some of his best skills at SS (positioning, arm strength, consistent glove) should age better than ones that are speed or reaction-based. With his arm, he'll be able to slide down to 3B and provide superior defense even if his range declines to where he needs to move off SS. If he keeps hitting close to where he's been at, then he's an all-star at either spot. We know he's a good guy in the clubhouse and that players gravitate to him, which is good when you expect to have young players consistently coming up. That's all good.

There's risk in any deal, and it gets higher the longer it is. But Correa is the kind of player that's a) worth the risk, and b) isn't often available for the Twins. Go for it.

Hells bells, no one in Twins leadership is likely to be around at the end of this contract anyways.

[KirbyHawk75]

1 hour ago, IA Bean Counter said:

As a note Jim Bowden on mlb radio stated Correa would sign a deal with the Mets they were just finalizing details, supposedly this was from someone close to Correa, relative maybe?  I think this will be over by Monday night one way or another.  

So it is over?  The Twins get screwed again.  I can't believe how much time I wasted.  As a Hawkeyes, Vikings, Twins, and Timberwolves fan I am used to disappointment.  He gone.  

[Valdespino]

But but but, I thought everyone knew that the Twins never had a serious chance to sign Correa long-term.

[Doctor Gast]

Cohen doesn't appear to me as a low baller. It also appears to me that he really wants Correa. So any action he is doing is to protect himself in the long run. I don't see why they'd single out Correa & not the other FA he signed.  Correa burned too many bridges last season because he wanted Seager money. Boras is a smart guy, I don't understand why they haven't dreamed up a creative deal yet. The only problem I see is maybe Correa's ego.

As I stated from the beginning there should be a creative heavy incentive contract that can max out at $45MM/ year. That would include time playing SS, 3B, DH; World Series, ALC, post season games won, division championship and game played. And guarantee $15MM if he can only play at DH towards the end of his 10 yr contract. This just a guide line something that could work from. On the surface it looks like a 10yr/ $450MM contract (which would satisfy Correa's ego) yet in reality would be closer to 1/2 that price. If he wants no trade or trade approval, opt outs give it to him. If Correa believes there's problem let them prove it by agreeing to this kind of contract. It'd be a contract that could be attractive to any team that'd like him in trade. If he doesn't like it let him walk.

My worry that FO act out of desperation because of their lack of success in this offseason (much like this Gallo move). They don't listen to the doctors & insurance assessors & proceed believing that nothing will happen. And again something happens & we are holding the bag again. 

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, Heiny said:

I really hate the long term contracts.  I think anything over 6 years is to long

I agree. If we are going to keep the 10-year, $285 million offer on the table (when it seems like no other teams are left to make anything close to this offer now), lets give Correa an opt out at 2 years and the Twins an opt out after 7 years. 

[Reptevia]

1 hour ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

There will still be a physical, they just trust what they already know. The 10 year deal was offered knowing his injury history.

Then our medical people are smarter than the Giants and Mets people?  I find that hard to believe given all the injured players they’ve signed off on. 

[jorgenswest]

I think they go in with understanding of the risk. It is the injury risk that makes him available to a mid/small market team. I’d take the risk.

[Brandon]

Even though Correa is still a free agent, he is still entertaining us Twins Fans with all this offseason drama.  This is just such a great show.  I am going to sit back with my popcorn and enjoy the last few episodes before spring training.  

[LewFordLives]

If Correa wanted to be a Twin he would still be a Twin. The Twins alleged offer wasn't that different from the Mets offer. 

[VINMANCT]

Love Correa. Not worth the money. I'd much rather see all that cash spent on a great, young starting pitcher. Then trade Kepler for another good arm. Farmer will be better than expected. Lewis will be great. So will Lee. Gallo, Buxton, Laurnach, and Kiriloff are all determined. Wallner can't wait. The injury situation will never be as bad as last year, and they led the division for much of the year with a patchwork roster.

Ryan, Gray, Maeda, Ober, Mahle, Paddock, Varland and a better pen.

Buxton

Arraez

Miranda

Larnach

Gallo

Polanco

Wallner

Kiriloff/Garlick

Farmer/Lewis

Vasquez/Jeffers

DO NOT TRADE ARRAEZ!

Let's play ball!

 

 

 

[BuxtonBonanza]

Even if they don't end up with Correa after the second bite at the apple, at least they are willing to play in the deeper end of the free agent waters. Sure there are no free agent medals for second place but the FO is willing to spend $200M+ which is what is going to take for upper tier free agents moving forward. Of course, some free agents like Ohtani and perhaps Soto will have their number start with a 5 but given how much past FOs have played in the shallow end, they have to start somewhere so why not Correa?

[IA Bean Counter]

2 hours ago, KirbyHawk75 said:

So it is over?  The Twins get screwed again.  I can't believe how much time I wasted.  As a Hawkeyes, Vikings, Twins, and Timberwolves fan I am used to disappointment.  He gone.  

Based off this Bowden it seems Mets fans are getting optimistic. It is hard to say at this point. With Correa nothing is done until the signs, personally I thinks he would rather be a met than a twins player and we were merely used as leverage.