Believe in Buxton for 2023

[Ted Schwerzler]

Of course, it’s the beginning of January and hope springs eternal. Maybe that sentiment is more traditionally reserved for Spring Training, but the dead of winter needs some heat in Twins Territory. An offseason ago the front office paid the man, now in 2023 it’s time to watch Byron Buxton break loose.

Image courtesy of © Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Realistically fans of the Minnesota Twins have been awaiting a breakout from Byron Buxton for the better part of seven years. In that time he’s either flashed ability, or shown a very brief glimpse of availability. Only once, in 2020, did we come close to seeing what it looked like together and even that is debatable.

For Minnesota, paying Buxton should’ve been a no-brainer. He’s among the best players in the world when healthy, and the only reason they were in position as the only to be able to give him a $100 million contract is because free agency and a $300 million contract has been thwarted by injury.

Buxton spent the early portion of his Major League career being instructed to put the ball on the ground, utilize his speed, and sacrifice a power tool that was so evident during his pre-draft process. The Georgia native looked to project as a true five-tool player, and a previous Minnesota regime sought to get less of a ceiling while attempting to ensure a safer floor.

By 2017, we began to see how silly that looked. Buxton racked up MVP consideration largely for his defense, winning both a Platinum and Gold Glove. He did hit 16 longballs though, and that came across a big league best 140 games. Injury struck again in 2018, but by 2019 it was clear the Twins star was an offensive threat too. In 2020 he advanced his MVP positioning while posting a career-best 125 OPS+. It’s hard to count the contribution as whole however, given that he played in just over 50% of an already truncated 60 game season.

The past two seasons we have seen Buxton compile a 150 OPS+ and look the part of a guy who should rack up bombs and extra-base hits with ease. While still seeking a season of true availability to pair it with, 2022 brings promise.

In the first year of a new seven-year deal, Buxton played in 92 games. That is the most he’s logged in any season since 2017, and comes with the caveat that he was injured almost from the get go. Despite needing consistent fluid drains of his knee following a slide against the Boston Red Sox, Buxton continued to produce. Although his pendulum swung a bit too far in the slugging over on-base direction, he managed pain and remained available for Rocco Baldelli’s club for much of the competitive duration.

Despite the Twins feeling good about where Buxton is in his offseason program, there is some reason for caution. He underwent a knee surgery following the regular season, and will soon ramp back up to baseball activities. Given what he produced while playing with a substantial injury last season though, it’s more than clear that Minnesota stands to come up big time if he can be kept on the field.

That has definitely been the mantra throughout the duration of his eight year career, but Buxton posted numbers that would extrapolate to 49 homers, five triples, and 23 doubles over the course of a full season. His 7.0 fWAR would have ranked 6th in baseball, and behind only American League MVP winner Aaron Judge among hitters.

There is no one more focused on keeping Buxton on the field this season than himself, and the Twins are certainly attempting to put a new foot forward with Nick Paparesta leading the training staff. For the vast majority of Minnesota’s roster, the production from those carried over will largely impact how much noise this club makes. We shouldn’t be questioning how good Buxton is anymore, he’s otherworldly. The only question is if he can remain out there, and fighting through what he did a season ago and racking up 92 games, should bring some promise for something we haven’t seen in years.

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[djvang]

He can't stay healthy.

[dxpavelka]

8 minutes ago, djvang said:

He can't stay healthy.

HASN'T.  The past is an excellent predictor of the past.

[rv78]

In the quest for Buxton to produce his other worldly power numbers that some think will make him the next superstar 2nd only to Aaron Judge, he has become Sano-esque and by the end of his Twins career, IMO he will be the biggest over-hyped disappointment this organization has ever had, along-side Sano. He can't put together 1 good full season much less 2.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

It'd be interesting to know if Nick Paparesta is handling him any different this year that he has been handled in the past.  If so, then I would at least be encouraged that they are trying something different to keep him healthy.  If not, then same old same old.

[Beast]

I’m optimistic, but very cautiously.

Im a huge fan of his.  The deal they signed is still a great deal, even with the injuries - those complaining about that will hopefully stop after seeing this years free agent market.

He’ll miss some time.  I no longer hold out hope in that regard.  I just hope it’s not excessive and not in September/October.  We’ll see.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Let's face it, Buxton is fragile. The man could tear an ACL pulling on his pants, herniate a disk with a sneeze, tear the ol' latissimus dorsi just picking up a baseball bat. That means the only way to prevent him from becoming injured is to not play him. Which defeats the purpose of having him on the roster in the first place. Best we can hope for, in my semi-lucid opinion, is that unless the Twins pack Buxton in cotton and don't allow him to move is maybe 30 games in full health, 30 games at 3/4 health and 20 games of tough-it-out gutsy DHing. And since Baldelli can't schedule in health (sorry Rocco, no spreadsheet for that), let Buxton play when he's healthy without forcing him to take "pre-planned rest days", stick the talented centerfielder on the IL as soon as he gets injured (don't have him riding the pine for a couple of weeks first), and plan on having a half-time centerfielder not named Lewis on the roster.

[Beast]

40 minutes ago, rv78 said:

In the quest for Buxton to produce his other worldly power numbers that some think will make him the next superstar 2nd only to Aaron Judge, he has become Sano-esque and by the end of his Twins career, IMO he will be the biggest over-hyped disappointment this organization has ever had, along-side Sano. He can't put together 1 good full season much less 2.

The guy has accumulated over 20 WAR in 585 games.  That’s .035 per game.  Joe Mauer was at .030 for his career.  Aaron Judge and Mike Trout are around .05 per game.  Bryce Harper is around .031.

Saying he a bust and he can’t put together a good full season is absurd.  He’s responsible for more wins in half a season than almost everybody else is in a full one.  Alex Bergman had 4.5 WAR in 2022.  Rafael Devers 4.4.  Luis Arraez 4.4.  George Springer 4.0.  Clad Guerrero 4.0.  Byron Buxton 4.0.

He had .5 higher WAR than Matt Chapman in 2022.  1.2 higher than Acuna, Yelich, Wander Franco. 1.5 more than Bryce Harper.

Thats significant value added.  It’s just a fact that if he plays a full season (the way he’s played historically), that he would be near the top of the MLB in WAR.  You’re flawed perception doesn’t change that.

[mikelink45]

Ted you have definitely found something to give you hope.  Throughout your writing you remain so positive - thank you, even though I do not feel the same.  Buxton has now been a Twin 8 years.  He has averaged 73 games a season.   67 in CF.  He is a superstar if he is in the field, as a DH not so much.  244/301/473 - OPS+ 108.  That is a good player, not a star.

Yes I would like to see him step up and turn it around in year 9, but I have to see it to believe it.  I will root for him, enjoy him, but I do not want false expectations.  

He is in line with Mahle, Maeda, Larnach, Kiriloff, Gallo, Kepler, Pagan, Lopez, Alcala, Ober, Jeffers as players we would sure like to see match our earliest expectations.  

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

HASN'T.  The past is an excellent predictor of the past.

Good point.  Everyone knows that humans get less injury prone as they age.

[Cap'n Piranha]

I believe in Byron Buxton.  I do not believe in Byron Buxton’s health.  Unfortunately, the impact of the former is controlled by the latter.

[chpettit19]

If Nick Paparesta keeps Buxton in CF for 130 games each of the next 2 seasons the Pohlads should give him an ownership stake in the team.

[Doctor Gast]

I'm a believer in Buck. Yes he has been hampered by bad luck & the result of his extreme efforts that he gives. I also believe this year he won't see so much bad luck & compete for MVP. Hopefully Nick Paparesta can influence the way Buxton has been managed and not try squeeze every game they could out of him. Instead focus on having him ready for post season. 

[MABB1959]

Sad but typical for most of the Twins #1 draft picks.  I agree with many posts that to be the player we thought we were getting is if he plays in the outfield and not as DH and far less "rest" days as those do not seem to help.  Get him out there playing and if he breaks, he breaks and we can be done with this I understand they are trying to protect the investment but a what cost?  A half-year all-star?

Hopefully this new medical staff can GET and KEEP him healthy for a full season.  He should be able to play in 120+ games to be compared to Judge.

 

 

[Brandon]

He does have the talent to be a 40/40 guy.  He is kinda of like Eric Davis.  a guy who had incredible talent but couldn't stay healthy for a full season either.  He did do better than Buxton has but man that guy could hit and run too.  

Eric Davis Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

[Col M]

I love the optimism, and Buxton is an astonishingly gifted player when he is intact and healthy! Just not convinced a new trainer can make enough of a difference. Keeping fingers crossed!

[Squirrel]

4 minutes ago, Col M said:

I love the optimism, and Buxton is an astonishingly gifted player when he is intact and healthy! Just not convinced a new trainer can make enough of a difference. Keeping fingers crossed!

Welcome to TD! ?

[Trov]

Every year we get the, if only Buxton can stay on the field we can see some great numbers.  Then he misses half the year and we point out to the few months he was healthy and get back into what if mode.  At this point, you just need to slot him for 60 to 90 games, of which maybe 30 of them he will be hurting and not at max.  He will carry us for a month or 2, then will struggle with staying on field.  I will believe he can play a full season, and be what he does over 30 to 60 days, when he actually does it. 

[roger]

I do not believe that Buxton is as fragile as many say.  A good share of his injuries have been normal baseball related injuries.  How many times has he been on the IL after being hit in the hand/wrist with a 90+ mph fastball?  I don't recall the exact number, but believe it is several.

Running into a fence at full speed will destroy anyone's body, especially hitting some fences which aren't properly padded at his speed.  Yes, some of his injuries have been nagging injuries you would think/hope a professional athlete could avoid.  But most were either normal baseball injuries or due to his playing 100% on every play.

As for 2023, if Byron plays 130+ games with most being in center field the Twins will win.  They will be in the playoffs. 

[Mark G]

Can I ask again that we stop saying he "played" in 92 games?  He "played", as in the field, 58 games; the rest were DH or pinch hitting, etc.  Slightly over 1/3 of the games.  We can dream of him roaming CF for 140 plus games a year, and that would probably mean the difference in making the playoffs or not, but it has happened........let me see........how often?  And we have to accept this fact, because as he said fairly recently in this off season, I am not going to change the way I play.  He knows the way he plays is a primary factor in his injury history and doggedly states he will not change.  Well........ what can we genuinely expect?  Not hope for, expect?  

The man is the best player I have ever seen..........in the trainers room.  But to stay out of the trainers room he may need to alter his playing style........which he won't do, so.........I don't know, brighter minds than mine can chew on this.  But I do hope he finds that fine line that blends both worlds.  

[Whitey333]

It's the same thing every off season.  People speculate on Buxton.  What if he played a full season? What if?  To extrapolate his part time status into a season of full time stats is absolutely ridiculous.  Comparing Buxton to players like Trout, and others is ludicrous.  How can a normal logical person compare that way when Buxton never plays?  The superstars are superstars because they produce throughout the season.  And for season after season.  Not by playing baseball in the trainers room.  We've followed this B's for 8 going on 9 years.  He shows flashes of brilliance.  He also shows flashes of Sano.  He is no superstar!  To call him that with so little evidence does a great disservice to the real superstars of the game.  The ones who play and produce.  I hope he plays all year and has an MVP year.  But I sure doubt it.  Buxton is what he is.  A good player, great center fielder, when he plays.  Problem is he doesn't play nearly enough.

[Ted Schwerzler]

3 hours ago, rv78 said:

In the quest for Buxton to produce his other worldly power numbers that some think will make him the next superstar 2nd only to Aaron Judge, he has become Sano-esque and by the end of his Twins career, IMO he will be the biggest over-hyped disappointment this organization has ever had, along-side Sano. He can't put together 1 good full season much less 2.

I'm not sure what you expect all top prospects to become, but very few are guaranteed Hall of Famers. Buxton also already has more than double Sano's career fWAR...

[Ted Schwerzler]

3 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

It'd be interesting to know if Nick Paparesta is handling him any different this year that he has been handled in the past.  If so, then I would at least be encouraged that they are trying something different to keep him healthy.  If not, then same old same old.

I mean, basically none of his injuries are precursors for the next....

[Ted Schwerzler]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Ted you have definitely found something to give you hope.  Throughout your writing you remain so positive - thank you, even though I do not feel the same.  Buxton has now been a Twin 8 years.  He has averaged 73 games a season.   67 in CF.  He is a superstar if he is in the field, as a DH not so much.  244/301/473 - OPS+ 108.  That is a good player, not a star.

This is a bit intentionally misleading. Correlating Buxton's first years with his last is only to support and argument that tears down his value. Since 2019 he has posted a 137 OPS+ 

[Ted Schwerzler]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm a believer in Buck. Yes he has been hampered by bad luck & the result of his extreme efforts that he gives. I also believe this year he won't see so much bad luck & compete for MVP. Hopefully Nick Paparesta can influence the way Buxton has been managed and not try squeeze every game they could out of him. Instead focus on having him ready for post season. 

I don't even think this is so much on the training staff as it is bad luck. Buxton played 92 games last year despite messing up his knee on a fluke slide. He was needing injections and drains constantly. He was looking at infection. He still produced significantly and was out there that much.

We have grown accustomed to it ALWAYS being something. Maybe that continues. On the off chance that it doesn't, he's otherworldly.

[Ted Schwerzler]

1 hour ago, Col M said:

I love the optimism, and Buxton is an astonishingly gifted player when he is intact and healthy! Just not convinced a new trainer can make enough of a difference. Keeping fingers crossed!

This really wasn't about a new trainer. It's about the fact he played 92 games despite an injury suffered immediately that required surgery. If he can avoid some fluke thing, yet again, there's no reason to believe he can't be amazing.

[Ted Schwerzler]

34 minutes ago, Mark G said:

But to stay out of the trainers room he may need to alter his playing style........which he won't do, so.........I don't know, brighter minds than mine can chew on this.  But I do hope he finds that fine line that blends both worlds.  

Two things:

1. Altering his style saps his value

2. His style didn't lead to the injury that had him coming up lame from a weird slide.

[Kipp35]

4 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

HASN'T.  The past is an excellent predictor of the past.

And the ONLY thing we have to grade future expectations.

[Elliot]

Arguing over who has the best crystal ball is pointless. He has faced injury issues in the past, a fact that is reflected in the contract agreed upon. Both sides are protected.
I am not sure if those critical of Buxton are suggesting he be cut, released, traded, or just publicly criticized since there really are no suggestions offered.  I am sure Buxton, Rocco, FO, and most fans would love to see him healthy and productive for a full season. Pencil him in CF and the middle of the order and let it play out. History cautions the team to have a good backup plan in place, but it also shows that no one on the team has more “transcendent player” potential than Byron Buxton. Thank you Ted for sharing a bit of hope and optimism. 

[CRF]

Unfortunately, the only thing I believe about Buxton, is that somehow he'll get injured again and miss a decent chunk of the season.