Latest on Carlos Correa's Chaotic Free Agent Saga: Could the Twins Get Back In It?

[Nick Nelson]

In one sense, nothing has happened with Carlos Correa yet. A full two weeks after first agreeing to a historic deal with the Giants, he still hasn't put pen to paper and officially signed a contract.

In another sense, SO MUCH HAS HAPPENED. The twists and turns in this unprecedented high-stakes free agency quagmire are almost incomprehensible. Let's get up to speed on where Correa's market stands, and how the Twins might still fit in.

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

First, a quick recap of the events leading up to this point. On December 13th, Carlos Correa reached agreement with the San Francisco Giants on a 13-year, $350 million contract. It would've ranked as the second-largest for any free agent in MLB history.

Alas, it was not to be. 

Just before it was scheduled to take place, the Giants postponed a press conference to make the deal official, citing concerns raised in Correa's physical. Scott Boras balked at the request and quickly returned to the market, rushing into an overnight agreement with Steve Cohen and the New York Mets for 12 years and $315 million.

Soon after, we learned that Correa's agreement with Mets was ALSO in question, because their medical staff ran into similar concerns as San Francisco when going through a physical. The point of contention allegedly relates to an old ankle injury from 2014 -- controversial in that it hasn't affected him on the field in nine years since, but is evidently raising red flags for long-term risk. 

Reports of the Mets' concerns generally came with the caveat that New York and Correa were expected to work through the issue and ultimately agree on a deal. Alas, three days later -- albeit with a holiday break mixed in -- the two sides have yet to settle on agreeable terms.

Meanwhile, it sounds as if confidence is waning, at least somewhat. A column from Mike Puma in the New York Post on Monday indicates that while there is "optimism a deal can still be completed," that optimism could hardly be described as emphatic, with "one source on Monday placing the likelihood at 55 percent that the two sides find common ground." 

Correa "isn’t open to restructuring the length or financial terms of the contract," according to Puma. 

The question now bouncing around every Twins fan's mind is: what does the other 45 percent side of this scenario look like? If Correa's deal with New York fizzles, where do he and Boras go? Back to the Giants? Re-engage the Twins? Connect with an outside suitor, as they did originally with the Mets?

Puma reports that "at least three teams have been in contact with Correa’s camp in recent days," and the Twins are presumably among them. The team's stance, at last check, was that they remained open to sticking with their original offer of 10 years and $285 million, but only under the condition they could review his medical situation and feel comfortable with what they saw.

Theoretically that conversation could fire back up as Correa and Boras push to complete a deal and put an end this two-year free agent odyssey once and for all. 

The thing I can't quite get past is this: If two of the most impulsive and free-spending owners/franchises in baseball are unwilling to go 13 or 12 years with Correa based on what they've seen with a deeper look, what are the chances that one of the shrewdest and least impulsive will go 10 or more? 

Can we really conceive that the Twins -- mired in a litany of pivotal health questions as they already are -- will emerge the winners in what's quickly becoming one of the most prominently publicized high-risk ventures in the history of free agency? Do we even honestly believe they should?

At the same time, I can't stop circling back to another burning question: If ever there was a series of events that was going to play out and give the Twins a serious chance to "get creative" and sign a deal that is legitimately within their targeted range ... this would seem to be it, right?

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[baul0010]

It seems at this point that Correa does not want to return.  I was initially sad about this, but we may be closer to rebuilding than contending with Correa.  It will be a fun season to see if our young talent can stay healthy and produce.  If that happens we will be in good shape.  If not, it'll be time to sell, and not having Correa on the books for 9+ years should only help.  

[EGFTShaw]

I dunno.  You make some good observations.  I think the observation was made by @Ted Schwerzler about the Twins saw the same medical reports last year.

I think C4 would return and would be happy.  

I really think he/they (Boras), were trying to set some contract records to help down the road.  Remember Soto is coming up after 2024 I think it is.  Hence the reason he went with the 13 year and then 12 year contracts.

I honestly still believe, assuming C4 was genuine when he was here and I have no reason to think otherwise, his best overall place to play would be here.  I think he becomes the DeFacto leader along with Buxton of the Twins with guiding the young talent (and the Twins have a lot of it), on how to be a professional and how to prepare every day during the season and also what to do in the offseason.

But at this point, purely speculative and I am trying not to think of it any other way.  

Been a Twins fan far too long to get my hopes too HIGH...LOL

[DaneRyan87]

I initially had strong feels about the Correa signing elsewhere but this has been such a mess that it is probably impossible in the short term whether or not the Twins or another team would be smart to reach a long-term deal with Correa. 

[DocBauer]

Just my opinion:

1] His medicals and physical were good enough for the Twins to commit 3yrs and $35M per. Any injury or health situation in 2022 was never related to this old injury. He "dinged" his leg once during the season and it appeared to hurt pretty good. But he was fine after that. This appears to be something the Twins are already fully aware of.

2] On the other hand, sure seemed weird that Boras was in such an immediate hurry to make a midnight deal with the Mets for a lesser amount than the Giants, though reportedly slightly higher than the Mets 1st offer. Were the Giants just DONE? Were the Mets the only $300M option? 

If Boras and Correa do come calling again, I think the Twins should probably jump as long as nothing new has happened to alter what they, seemingly,  already previously knew.

[roger]

I don't expect Correa to be worth his annual salary six or seven years from now, regardless of whether this injury becomes a problem.  And that is around the time that Lewis, AK, Larnach, Lee, Varland, SWR, Duran and others are going to need to be extended.  Well, a couple actually should be extended sooner.  So the problem I see in bringing him back is the nearly $30M he will be paid in 2028-2029-2030-2031 and 2032...assuming it is a 10-year deal.  

The Twins are a mid-market team with a rational business plan.  Because of how his contract will affect the longer term future, I will continue to believe they should take a pass on bringing him back.

[wsnydes]

Walk away.  Just walk away.

If the big market teams are shying away from a long term deal, then this team most certainly should.  The disclaimer there is if they can get the term down to a more manageable length where the ankle issue isn't likely to be as big of a question mark.  And this team already has first hand knowledge of how it holds up over a season.  

[Doctor Gast]

I think  Correa's response that he doesn't want to restructure is an ego thing & maybe some kind of ploy. What it really boils down to is Correa really wants to play for the NYM but at the original salary & Cohen really wants Correa but with at a restructured salary. IMO it'll eventually gets done.

By signing Gallo they didn't really kept their powder dry. If they sign Correa they couldn't do anything else.

I think that this FO burned up too many creative brain cells coming up with their last creative offer so if there any creativity it has to come from Boras again?.

[SanoMustGo]

I think Boras tried to sucker the Mets into a quick signing.  It hasn't worked, and my bet is if Correa doesn't re-negotiate, the Mets will part ways.  Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy than Boras...again, bad for baseball.

[Ghost_Of_Sid_Hartman]

38 minutes ago, roger said:

I don't expect Correa to be worth his annual salary six or seven years from now, regardless of whether this injury becomes a problem.  And that is around the time that Lewis, AK, Larnach, Lee, Varland, SWR, Duran and others are going to need to be extended.  Well, a couple actually should be extended sooner.  So the problem I see in bringing him back is the nearly $30M he will be paid in 2028-2029-2030-2031 and 2032...assuming it is a 10-year deal.  

The Twins are a mid-market team with a rational business plan.  Because of how his contract will affect the longer term future, I will continue to believe they should take a pass on bringing him back.

While his level of play will undoubtedly deteriorate over the last years of a long term contract, that is balanced in part by the fact that payrolls are likely to increase over time and the fixed outlay each year comes to represent an increasingly smaller percentage of the overall team payroll. Another way to avoid being hamstrung by an outrageous outlay for declining production would be frontloading the contract, with the annual salary dimishing as the player ages and production wanes. 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Welp. Good luck to Correa wherever he ends up playing!

[IA Bean Counter]

Here is the thing,  the Mets are likely trying to get a short term deal done or an injury clause.  However even with all the money in the world, Cohen went with a low AAV high amount of years.  Meaning the Twins can likely beat the Mets on an higher AAV/shorter years deal if they want to.  Correa will go to whoever pays him.  He has shown to have that mercenary mentality,  however even last year he did all the right things when he was on the team.  I would expect the same thing.  Correa wants the big payday,  likely concerned about his own health.   I guess I am slightly confused on what is the best path.  Basically this is the only way the twins can ever get a superstar to sign with them on a long term contract, as we can see they can easily be outbid on any other year.  Obviously its a no go if insurance is unwilling to insure the contract unless he goes for a shorter term higher AAV deal.  If so the Mets hold all the cards on that front because Cohen can personally afford to pay him and lose him to injury.  

I am leaning towards a deal with the Twins again.  This has already gone 2-3 days,  meaning the deal with the Mets will likely fall apart,  unless no one else can or will give a long term contract in the 9-10 years range that he wants.  I could make a better estimate if we knew what the counter offer from the Mets is.  Have they lopped off 75 mil and are in the 250 mil range,  are they only in at a 6 year deal at 190 mil?   It is hard to say.  However only the Twins and the Giants appear to have the money to pull this off and I am fairly certain the Giants won't get involved again with Boras unless they get a very good deal in the situation.  Boras drug them through the mud.  I would venture the 3 teams consist of the group of (Twins, Red Sox, Cardinals, and Giants).  

[bloomwcjkl]

In a "hot" market you waive all contingencies! No inspection. (I guess that is housing, not beisbol)

Maybe a 20 year contract for 50% ownership would seal the deal. :-) :-(

Time to move on for me.

[se7799]

I just don't get fans not wanting to spend up.  Look..if the owners don't spend it, they are not going to mail you a check reflecting the money saved.  I understand the owners being hesitant..just not the fans.

[chinmusic]

This is no longer about Carlos Correa, the baseball player. It's taken on a life of its own.

Replicating his 2022 season as a Minnesota Twin would be cool, otherwise.... fuhgeddaboudit

(I'd like a second shot at a full season  with a healthy Buxton and Correa)

[umterp23]

Another week and another correa would of, could of, should of story.  The rinse cycle repeat is old.  At this point, there is no way I would even come close to offer anything beyond 5 years for a contract.  5/$142.5 with Correa having an opt out after year 3 and Twins have trade no trade through 3 years and can have limited trade options in year 4 and full trade if he doesn't opt out.  That takes to what age 33.  You can structure the annual numbers to allow him to make more money in the first 3 years and reduced rate for final two.  Opt out has to have some performance values added in so that he just doesn't walk because he wants to walk.  Boras will never go with it but buyer beware since Correa chose to move on after year one.  If he had stayed through his 3 years, he would be sitting pretty if Mets/Giants truly do walk away.

Move on - Go Twins

[Vanimal46]

Can his ankle hold up enough to dance on the field? I’d like to find out. 

[Thebigalguy]

It's good comedy, ain't it? From the outside looking in, anyway. I can't imagine Correa is having much fun about now. But the bottom line is that the guy is going to get a big payday, even if it's not quite as gigantic as he had hoped. He won't have trouble feeding his family. (We all remember when former NBA player Latrell Sprewell refused a $21-million three-year contract because it wouldn't be sufficient to feed his children.) Right about now Correa should be submitting to a Twins physical so that the team can decide whether to stick with the offer it made him or not. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

The Twins should do in essence a 3 part contract with Correa;

Part 1: 3 years, $120M, followed by a player opt-out

Part 2: 2 years, $70M, followed by a team option with a $15M buy-out (payable across two years, disappears if Correa signs a deal in excess of 4 years, $100M, or $30M in AAV)

Part 3: 3 years, $90M

Correa gets another shot at FA (if he wants to), while the Twins max their investment at $205M ( in the years Correa should be healthy/producing)

[I wish the twins were good]

Coincidentally, they just opened a Dior store at the outlet mall!

[SteveLV]

I, too, would be much happier with a higher AAV, shorter deal.  Something like 6/$220M would make more sense--to the extent that is even possible--than they decades plus long deals getting signed and are manifestly silly.

[SteveLV]

I was also offline all day and fully expected to read tonight that Correa and the Mets had worked out a new deal.  Still expect that to happen, but the longer it is taking, the more it seems other options may materialize.

[Danchat]

Maybe Correa can get Kirk Cousins contracts every other year or so? Just keep taking short deals high on APY and keep betting on yourself.

[mikelink45]

I love your writing, but am I the only person who does not want to think about Carlos anymore?  Really this is just too much for me.  There are more players than Carlos who can lead us to a sub 500 season.

 

[mikelink45]

PS - the Rangers signed Eovaldi. I would have been happier with him than with Carlos.  Look at the Rangers new Rotation - We should have signed one of them if we were not SS obsessed

 

[Vanimal46]

14 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I love your writing, but am I the only person who does not want to think about Carlos anymore?  Really this is just too much for me.  There are more players than Carlos who can lead us to a sub 500 season.

 

I find the situation really compelling. As do most Twins fans because we are now approximately 100 Correa articles into the offseason with tons of comments. I can’t recall another situation with another star player like Correa this offseason. 

There are no remaining free agents who will make an impact like Correa, so let’s see it play out. If the Mets bow out, he could fall into our laps once again with little to no leverage. 

[Einheri]

If Carlos wanted to go back to his previous Twins' contract (now with two years left at $35.1M/yr and with a player opt out at the end of 2023), I'd let him.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, Ghost_Of_Sid_Hartman said:

While his level of play will undoubtedly deteriorate over the last years of a long term contract, that is balanced in part by the fact that payrolls are likely to increase over time and the fixed outlay each year comes to represent an increasingly smaller percentage of the overall team payroll. Another way to avoid being hamstrung by an outrageous outlay for declining production would be frontloading the contract, with the annual salary dimishing as the player ages and production wanes. 

Front-loading a contract may sound wise, however I believe that the total amount paid out over the life of the contract is what is important to the player and his hot-shot agent. I believe it is a pride thing. But a counter to Ghost's proposal of front loading a contract is that a million dollars today is worth more than a million dollars payable in 7, 8, or 10 years.  Therefore the owners will pay less in overall "value paid" by back-loading, instead of front-loading a contract which has the same total number value for the life of the contract.   

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The Twins should do in essence a 3 part contract with Correa;

Part 1: 3 years, $120M, followed by a player opt-out

Part 2: 2 years, $70M, followed by a team option with a $15M buy-out (payable across two years, disappears if Correa signs a deal in excess of 4 years, $100M, or $30M in AAV)

Part 3: 3 years, $90M

Correa gets another shot at FA (if he wants to), while the Twins max their investment at $205M ( in the years Correa should be healthy/producing)

Not disagreeing. And some front loading makes tons of sense, especially as I believe that was in the original offer.

But I believe the initial offer had a player opt out at 4yrs. And I'd stick with that. That pays him, but let's him opt out when he's still around 31-32yrs old. And if I'm Boras and Correa...wanting to bet on himself...I'd really like this option. In fact, ultimately, it MIGHT play in the Twins favor as if he DID opt out at that stage. They would get 4 of his very best years and might be better prepared to "lose" him at that point, have a replacement option potentially available, and free up $ for extensions to current players and future signings. And if he sticks around, he gets 1 more opt out 2yrs later, at his discretion, and makes a boatload of guaranteed $ even if he never opts out.

Personally, when the Giants deal was over and done, I thought the Twins deal still made better sense for Correa than the Mets offer. Another $30M guaranteed with ZERO opt outs vs being able to do so in 4yrs  and look for yet another deal makes more sense to me from Correa's perspective. Turner is about 3yrs older than Correa and got a $300M deal. So why not take a somewhat lesser, still guaranteed deal, and re-enter the market in 4yrs where you might make even more?

IMO, if the Mets try to lower their offer, Boras should be BANGING on the Twins door to get their offer DONE! 

*Caveat, he still has to pass a physical. But he already did when the Twins gave him the initial 3yr and $105M deal. Has anything really changed since then?

[RaoulDuke]

Teams with money to light on fire are looking at the medicals and saying "nope".  That seems like a major red flag on signing him for the next decade.  We probably won't know until years later when the injury potentially flares up but it seems like maybe the contact he took to the surgical plate last year loosened something (pure speculation)?

I would be more than happy to do the higher AAV less years route, looks like it will still take at least the 10 year 285 million they initially offered.  I really wonder what this whole thing would look like with a different agent that isn't hell bent on setting salary records.

Correa has become Dior that has fraying stitches somewhere on the garment, do you still pay brand new off the shelf price for that or is it an open box deal?

All that being said it is becoming the kind of large contract the Twins have actually signed or traded for, somewhat damaged or questionable goods that lowers the price.