The Minnesota Twins' Front Office Played Themselves

[Matthew Taylor]

Derek Falvey and company put all of their eggs in the Carlos Correa basket this offseason. After Correa opted to join the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday night, the Twins are now left scrambling with few options left to choose from.

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Since day one of the offseason, the Minnesota Twins made it abundantly clear that priorities one, two and three were bringing back Carlos Correa. With plenty of payroll room to spend, and a pre-existing relationship with Correa, this seemed like the unique situation where the Twins could spend with the big boys and sign a franchise cornerstone for a long time.

Unfortunately for the Twins, it was reported late Tuesday night that Correa was signing with the San Francisco Giants for a 13-year, $350M contract. A contract that the Twins weren’t willing to match.

According to our friend Dan Hayes, the Twins’ best offer for Correa was a 10-year, $285M offer.

While missing out on Correa was a big bummer for everyone, it was also somewhat understandable. The San Francisco Giants play in one of the biggest markets in America and are used to routinely throwing around this kind of money. The issue for the Twins wasn’t missing out on Correa, it was that they put all of their eggs in the Carlos Correa basket.

By zeroing in on Carlos Correa and waiting for him to make a decision, they missed out on nearly every other impact free agent. Shortstops like Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner, impact pitchers like Chris Bassitt and Tyler Anderson, and big bats like Willson Contreras and José Abreu all signed elsewhere while the Twins were waiting on a decision from Correa.

By waiting on Carlos Correa the Twins front office needed to be extremely confident in the power of the offer that they held. They needed to be so sure that the amount of money that they were willing to give to the Gold Glover was so great that he couldn’t possibly turn down his former team.

Once Dan Hayes’s report came out that the Twins’ maximum offer was $285M, though, it made the front office’s handling of this offseason all the more troubling.

$285M was never going to get a deal done for Carlos Correa. In 2021 Francisco Lindor signed for $341M. Being younger and more decorated than Lindor, and with Scott Boras as his agent, there was no way that Correa would be signing for any less than $300M and there was a good chance that he would exceed Lindor’s number. Then when Trea Turner signed for $300M (and being offered $342 by the Padres), that notion was only cemented more.

Now that Carlos Correa has made his decision to sign with the Giants, the Twins are staring at a severely depleted free agency market with few impact players remaining. After Dansby Swanson and Carlos Rodón, no other free agents are projected to amass more than three wins above replacement in 2022. Outside of signing one of those two, the Twins can only acquire an impact player via trade. Dealing from a depleted farm system to improve a 78-win team that is worse than that 78-win team was on the last day of the 2022 season doesn't sound smart either.

The Twins are now in an incredibly tough situation because of the front offices misreading of the Carlos Correa situation and they have nobody to blame but themselves.

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[Peter]

Just dumb! Will they get roldan or Swanson ? I hope so!!! Otherwise it’s looking like a long season with 2-3 year rebuild. Royce won’t be ready until mid season/lee is 2-3 years away. Not to be negative but it’s looking like a 4th place finish 70 win season. Unless pitching steps up. I hope I’m wrong but….

[terrydactyls]

My feelings exactly!  That's why I think the Twins should invest any money or prospects trying to improve the 2023 team.  Put up the "We Are Sellers" sign right now and get ready for a very busy July.

[dgdynasty]

I know I am in the minority in that I really wanted us to sign CC, almost feeling we had to do whatever to make it happen. Let's be honest, we are a small market team in the frigid north. All Star caliber leadership players are not fighting each other to sign with us (or really any MN teams for that matter). So when there is actually a chance to get a difference maker because they like it here, then I feel like it is a big missed opportunity. Who is gojng to be our clubhouse leader(s)? It just doesn't feel like there are enough.. or any.. hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst..

[S E Schier]

Look at the free agents listed in the article.  They either received contracts quite bad for the Twins over time -- way too long and too expensive -- or don't address well the team's top needs.  So the team is right to look elsewhere.

[old nurse]

What a team with 60 million more in revenue is the problem. If you look at career numbers Correa, Turner and Bogarts are all close on fear.  The teams that can put out the 300 million dollar contracts are limited. There was one more than what was expected. The thing is at a shorter contract of 10/285 were known to be possible perhaps the Dodgers and/or Yankees would have started to consider. Did Boras use the Twins. Yes. It is prudent to have a fallback plan. Did the FO here know that? Likely, it is Boras.  Did the FO miss out of anyone who would have, could have or was worth that money? Nope

For whatever reason the aging curve on middle infielders is not good. Drop off at around age 32 with an occasional year where the player finds the fountain of youth. The analytics people have more than likely dissected this.  Should they have offered Correa a 10 year contract last year for the 300 million or so like Seagar got?  Hindsight is so clear

[MarcF]

Exactly. You've nailed it here. And I am so tired of hearing that we are a 'small market team' so can't compete with the big boys. The CC situation could have, and should have been handled much better. The Twins final offer wasn't even competitive. As for the 'frigid north' where no one wants to play, players love it here once they figure out how great Target Field and the Twin Cities is to call home. What they don't like is playing for a franchise that isn't committed to putting a winning team on the field. 2023 is looking like another year of saving my money to travel to other cities for some top-quality games. And to St. Paul, since I love baseball, but don't want to spend my life savings watching it. 

[saviking]

Crying over spilt milk. Yes, Correa played us the minute he approached Minnesota and signed what in essence was a one year contract.  Then kept us on a string until he go the contract he wanted. I'm more upset with Correa than the Twins front office except for their gullibility. Time to move on. 

[Whitey333]

Great article.  I agree with your thoughts.  But this isn't unusual for the Twins.  Wait until late to sign a free agent after the good ones are gone.  Then low ball offers like Correa and tell people how hard they tried and what a great offer they made.  Probably just public relations ploy.  What bothers me most is letting other free agents sign elsewhere and the Twins left holding the bag again.  It further tells me that if they signed Correa there would not have been much flexible payroll dollars left.  Otherwise they should have signed some players while awaiting his decision.  I'm glad we didn't sign him!  We would have been a mediocre team with no payroll to pursue other players.  No we will just be our normal mediocre team without busting the bank.

[RJA]

Amen.  There was no way that offer was going to be acceptable, and if all of us know that, how can the FO geniuses (kudos to Sid Hartman) not know that?  They did the same thing in the Wheeler situation, and ended up getting Donaldson, who like virtually all Twins trade additions, had an injury history.  Surprise, surprise, he was injured here, too.  It is like this group is constipated in their decision making, and then when their unrealistic plans don't materialize, they frantically look to do something to save face.  It is not like even bringing Correa back (even assuming that was a good idea), was going to make this team better.  It would have been the same team.   Let's hope Kirilloff, Larnach, Miranda and the rest of the next generation take a big step forward.  If we don't improve to compete this year, in 24 we will be without Mahle, Gray and Maeda, and only have one year left for Paddack, and he is coming off his second surgery.  This FO is in a pickle IMHO.  It will be interesting to see what they do next.  Let's hope it is something that makes this team better in a meaningful way.

[Kipp35]

Does this article sound familiar to anyone else? Sounds EXACTLY like last season when we stopped everything in order to ensure we got a deal done with Buxton, who was still under contract, no going anywhere, had no other team pursuing him (as noted by NO offers at the trade deadline). But, they did get Bundy to help out last year... this FO needs to be done and let someone else who can evaluate value, do the job.

[Dman]

I will agree the Front Office looks clueless if they thought 285 was going to get it done.  Given Boras and Correa wanted 35.1 Million to get him the highest AAV for a shortstop should have been a clue to anyone not deaf or blind what it was going to take to sign him.  300 was the starting point and they didn't even make it to starting line.  I think 325 might have gotten it done but we will never know as the Twins never got there and from the sounds of it never were going to get there.

I will disagree on missing out on some of those players on the OPs list.  Turner turned down more money to stay on the east coast he was never coming to MN.  The Twins had no interest in Contreras for what ever reason and they got the catcher they did want.  I don't believe they were in on Abreu either and all of the central passed on him as well. Maybe Boegarts but given his number was past the absolute max of 285 getting that deal done seems unlikely as well.

I will give you Basset and Anderson who knows if that had anything to do with Correa or not.  So yes I agree they were clueless if they were waiting on Correa given what they offered but I don't think I can agree they missed out on many of the names you mentioned above because of it.

[howeda7]

The honeymoon for this front office has been over since the 2019 trade deadline. It's only a question of how many more years we're going to waste on them. 

[mikelink45]

You nailed it Matthew.  So let's move on.  I look at our prospects and remember when Hrbek, Puckett, Gaetti, Gagne...all came up and jelled as they got experience.  We have the on field prospects to do that again - do we, will we, have the pitchers?

[Thebigalguy]

I like where the Twins are. They have what they need on the roster and in the minors. If they play up to their potentials, we're playoff bound. Forget free agents and trades. The team has what it needs if they get the job done and stay healthy.

[nicksaviking]

Yeah, they should have told Boras from the start that Correa was out of their price range and told him they wanted Bogaerts instead.

[Unwinder]

Yeah, I don't know if the doom and gloom is totally justified here. I'm very frustrated with the free agency situation and want to the FO to make a big splash, but the Twins' have had big FA names on big contracts for the last 2-3 mediocre years, and the last really good season the biggest free agent name was Nelson Cruz and he was getting paid 14 million. Different situation! Strong core! Career season for many players! Miguel Sano was competent! I know, I know, I'm just saying it's not inherently hopeless. We already have a better starting rotation than we did in 2019, an adequate if uninspiring plan B at shortstop, and we've figured out the catching situation. We're mostly free to look for upgrades wherever we can find them instead of desperately plugging holes, and we've got tons of spending money. Total optimism would be pretty silly right now, but total hopelessness is nearly as silly.

[Eris]

I would not consider Correa to be more decorated than Lindor.  Per Fangraphs, Lindor has put up 11 more WAR than Correa.  They were both rookies in 2015. Lindor also plays a better and more consistent defense.   Correa is the better offensive player. 
 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2015-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31

[MGM4706]

"It was somewhat understandable? That's funny! Every Twin fan with an ounce of sense knew it was going to happen exactly the way it did! The number would go high and the Twins would say "We tried"!

But the sad part is even tho everyone could see what was happening the FO stood by hoping for a miracle on Correa while all the pitching they so sorely needed was scooped up. Now they are a worse team than last year. The Whiz Kids got played and failed;!

Edited December 15, 2022 by MGM4706
Spelling

[Unwinder]

1 minute ago, MGM4706 said:

"It was somewhat understandable? That's funny! Every Twin fan with an ounce of sense knew it was going to happen exactly the way it did! The number would go high and the Twins would say "We tried"!

But the sad part is even tho everyone could see what was happening the FO stood by hoping for a miracle on Correa while all the pitching they do sorely needed was scooped up. Now they are a worse team than last year. The Whiz Kids got played and failed;!

I think they got cocky after lowballing Buxton.

[laloesch]

Sorry but 13 years 350 million for Correa was insanity.  I'm glad the Twins didn't sign him to that deal.  It would have tied their hands financially for years.  Good riddance. 

[Mike h]

A couple comments:  it seems some people have forgotten that one of the first things the FO did was to hedge their bet against signing one of the top FA shortstops  by trading for Kyle Farmer. Initially I was disappointed that they gave up a rising pitcher  for a shortstop we wouldn't need after the expected blockbuster signing, but then I learned more about Farmer.  His BA was .277 compared to .291 for CC, and he hit fewer HR, but this is not a terrible drop off. Besides that, he apparently was a fan favorite in Cincinnati, a great clubhouse leader, and an all-around great guy.   Just the kind of player I like to root for. So I don't think we have a "gaping hole" or a "pressing need" at SS.  The payroll budget can be directed at pitching where it will do the most good. I think this was a score for the FO.

Regarding the competitiveness of the Twins offer to CC, I think the Twins were looking at what XB just signed for - 11 years and $280M. So they offered 5M more for 1 year less time.  That was very competitive and very reasonable. Who could have known that SF would go crazy and push it way over 300M? Even so, matching that offer would have been irresponsible considering the other teams' needs. Not matching that offer was another score for the FO.

Also, the FO may have seen that Trea Turner turned down $42M more from another team in order to sign where he wanted to go.  It may seem unbelievable that a player would turn down that much money, but then money isn't everything.  Wasn't there maybe a chance CC would also turn down extra millions to stay where he liked it so much?  I don't blame the FO at all for how this was handled.

Which takes me to my last comment.  Did CC really play the Twins?  We're his comments about liking the team and his teammates just a ploy? Was he smart enough to set that up from the beginning, trying to create the impression that it would take a boatload of money to pry him away from this wonderful place? Maybe not, but what about his agent? Were we set up? I think it's far-fetched, and I don't believe it. But the way I feel about CC right now I kinda WANT to believe it.

[mnfireman]

After reading comments on this thread and others about the teams FO, I don't think I would let most of these posters (posers?) be the GM of my Fantasy baseball team, more less the GM of a MLB team. If you guys think that team was so focused on Correa that they let other players "slip" away you are very delusional. There are more than enough FO members, assistants and interns to keep in contact with all players and agents, all keeping  Falvey and/or Levine up-to-date on negotiations. 

Realistically, who does everyone think the team should have "tried harder" to sign? Judge? Wasn't going to happen, he turned down more $$$ and years to stay in NY. Turner? Turned down more $$$ to go back to the east coast. Bogaerts? Boras played that one correctly, getting every teams "back-up plan" SS to sign first, and at a very steep commitment to the Padres at that. Nimmo? Boy did the Mets get played on that contract, $62 MM more guaranteed money than Buxton. Haniger? Maybe, but he's 32, has a history of injuries and he's from the west coast, San Francisco is close to family. Verlander or deGrom? Not happening, too expensive. Bassitt, Walker, Taillon, Elflin? If you believe in your system and feel it is going to produce soon, you don't sign aging veterans to 3 and 4 year contracts, especially veterans with past injury issues. Clevinger or Syndergard? Veteran pitchers with injury history on 1 year make-good or build-value contracts, where have we heard this before? 

Rodon may be in play, but he is on record as saying he prefers NYY as his landing spot, why outbid them for a guy who doesn't want to be anywhere else. But if 5/$135 gets it done, do it.*

Swanson may also be in play, but he has sat back and watched Correa, Turner and Bogaerts get stupid $$$ for stupid years, he has got to be thinking "I can get some of that." But if 6/$141 gets it done, do it.*

* + FanGraphs/CrowdSource estimates.

I think we will some FA signings and some trades and we may be very surprised who is involved. Or maybe not. Either way, Falvey and Levine etc... are building this team around expectations of prospects future performance, just like every previous FO this team has had, good or bad.

[LewFordLives]

I generally disagree with the premise of this article and others I've read suggesting the Twins got "played". Everyone knows Boras is willing to drag these things out, and the acquisition of Farmer suggests the front office knew they better start thinking about plan B. Bottom line is we don't know what discussions were/are taking place, and we don't know that the delay with Correa affected other negotiations. I like to think they could have afforded both Correa and Bassit, but we don't know if Bassit would have been willing to play in Minnesota, or maybe the FO just didn't think he was worth the money.

 

I would add that nothing was going to happen on Correa until the Judge situation was resolved. Setting ultimatums would have been pointless.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

10 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

After reading comments on this thread and others about the teams FO, I don't think I would let most of these posters (posers?) be the GM of my Fantasy baseball team, more less the GM of a MLB team. If you guys think that team was so focused on Correa that they let other players "slip" away you are very delusional. There are more than enough FO members, assistants and interns to keep in contact with all players and agents, all keeping  Falvey and/or Levine up-to-date on negotiations. 

Realistically, who does everyone think the team should have "tried harder" to sign? Judge? Wasn't going to happen, he turned down more $$$ and years to stay in NY. Turner? Turned down more $$$ to go back to the east coast. Bogaerts? Boras played that one correctly, getting every teams "back-up plan" SS to sign first, and at a very steep commitment to the Padres at that. Nimmo? Boy did the Mets get played on that contract, $62 MM more guaranteed money than Buxton. Haniger? Maybe, but he's 32, has a history of injuries and he's from the west coast, San Francisco is close to family. Verlander or deGrom? Not happening, too expensive. Bassitt, Walker, Taillon, Elflin? If you believe in your system and feel it is going to produce soon, you don't sign aging veterans to 3 and 4 year contracts, especially veterans with past injury issues. Clevinger or Syndergard? Veteran pitchers with injury history on 1 year make-good or build-value contracts, where have we heard this before? 

Rodon may be in play, but he is on record as saying he prefers NYY as his landing spot, why outbid them for a guy who doesn't want to be anywhere else. But if 5/$135 gets it done, do it.*

Swanson may also be in play, but he has sat back and watched Correa, Turner and Bogaerts get stupid $$$ for stupid years, he has got to be thinking "I can get some of that." But if 6/$141 gets it done, do it.*

* + FanGraphs/CrowdSource estimates.

I think we will some FA signings and some trades and we may be very surprised who is involved. Or maybe not. Either way, Falvey and Levine etc... are building this team around expectations of prospects future performance, just like every previous FO this team has had, good or bad.

Stop bringing logic to an emotional argument.  You make everybody look bad.

[mnfireman]

1 minute ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Stop bringing logic to an emotional argument.  You make everybody look bad.

Yeah, sorry about that.....???

[Dave Lemke]

Lets see who comes out ahead. Twins offered a higher AAV but fewer years. With the cost of living in California being higher than Mn Correa will make even less per year in SF. So Twins lose and Correa loses. San Francisco is stuck with a contract that probably doesnt age well. They lose. Only winner I see is Boras getting a cut from 350 instead of 285!

[KBJ1]

The Giants will come to regret the last 5 years of that contract. How many 38 -42 year old SS of note have there been?

He will be an expensive DH without Nelson Cruz power at twice the price.

If Lewis can come back and continues on the path he was on, we will be just fine.

Get pitching, pitching and more pitching and sign Brad Fullmer for crying  out loud.

His slider is unhittable!

Well a power hitting corner OF wouldn't hurt either. We have the money, but there aren't many prospects in the OF or catcher department unfortunately.

And we desperately need Kiriloff to step up and play 1B.

Thoughts?

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

After reading comments on this thread and others about the teams FO, I don't think I would let most of these posters (posers?) be the GM of my Fantasy baseball team, more less the GM of a MLB team. If you guys think that team was so focused on Correa that they let other players "slip" away you are very delusional. There are more than enough FO members, assistants and interns to keep in contact with all players and agents, all keeping  Falvey and/or Levine up-to-date on negotiations. 

Realistically, who does everyone think the team should have "tried harder" to sign? Judge? Wasn't going to happen, he turned down more $$$ and years to stay in NY. Turner? Turned down more $$$ to go back to the east coast. Bogaerts? Boras played that one correctly, getting every teams "back-up plan" SS to sign first, and at a very steep commitment to the Padres at that. Nimmo? Boy did the Mets get played on that contract, $62 MM more guaranteed money than Buxton. Haniger? Maybe, but he's 32, has a history of injuries and he's from the west coast, San Francisco is close to family. Verlander or deGrom? Not happening, too expensive. Bassitt, Walker, Taillon, Elflin? If you believe in your system and feel it is going to produce soon, you don't sign aging veterans to 3 and 4 year contracts, especially veterans with past injury issues. Clevinger or Syndergard? Veteran pitchers with injury history on 1 year make-good or build-value contracts, where have we heard this before? 

Rodon may be in play, but he is on record as saying he prefers NYY as his landing spot, why outbid them for a guy who doesn't want to be anywhere else. But if 5/$135 gets it done, do it.*

Swanson may also be in play, but he has sat back and watched Correa, Turner and Bogaerts get stupid $$$ for stupid years, he has got to be thinking "I can get some of that." But if 6/$141 gets it done, do it.*

* + FanGraphs/CrowdSource estimates.

I think we will some FA signings and some trades and we may be very surprised who is involved. Or maybe not. Either way, Falvey and Levine etc... are building this team around expectations of prospects future performance, just like every previous FO this team has had, good or bad.

Contreras would've been a massive upgrade at C. Haniger would've solved the RH OFer hole or Abreu at DH if the Twins just wanted a RH bat. Throw the Vasquez money at David Robertson and maybe take a flier on Tommy Kahnle since this FO doesn't fear injury risk with pitchers. All of that was absolutely possible with the money MN has to spend. Of course the Twins did, or hopefully will find other players to fill those holes, but the guys that "slipped away," were the more desirable players. That's the criticism. 

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Mike h said:

A couple comments:  it seems some people have forgotten that one of the first things the FO did was to hedge their bet against signing one of the top FA shortstops  by trading for Kyle Farmer. Initially I was disappointed that they gave up a rising pitcher  for a shortstop we wouldn't need after the expected blockbuster signing, but then I learned more about Farmer.  His BA was .277 compared to .291 for CC, and he hit fewer HR, but this is not a terrible drop off. Besides that, he apparently was a fan favorite in Cincinnati, a great clubhouse leader, and an all-around great guy.   Just the kind of player I like to root for. So I don't think we have a "gaping hole" or a "pressing need" at SS.  The payroll budget can be directed at pitching where it will do the most good. I think this was a score for the FO.

Regarding the competitiveness of the Twins offer to CC, I think the Twins were looking at what XB just signed for - 11 years and $280M. So they offered 5M more for 1 year less time.  That was very competitive and very reasonable. Who could have known that SF would go crazy and push it way over 300M? Even so, matching that offer would have been irresponsible considering the other teams' needs. Not matching that offer was another score for the FO.

Also, the FO may have seen that Trea Turner turned down $42M more from another team in order to sign where he wanted to go.  It may seem unbelievable that a player would turn down that much money, but then money isn't everything.  Wasn't there maybe a chance CC would also turn down extra millions to stay where he liked it so much?  I don't blame the FO at all for how this was handled.

Which takes me to my last comment.  Did CC really play the Twins?  We're his comments about liking the team and his teammates just a ploy? Was he smart enough to set that up from the beginning, trying to create the impression that it would take a boatload of money to pry him away from this wonderful place? Maybe not, but what about his agent? Were we set up? I think it's far-fetched, and I don't believe it. But the way I feel about CC right now I kinda WANT to believe it.

Very nice post!  It is possible they were hoping he would take less to stay in MN and maybe in the end that is why SF needed to bump their offer 70M over the Twins offer.  Still I think the Twins needed a way to get to at least 300M to have a chance.  Every team has their limits and I am guessing the Twins felt they stretched as far as they could go at 285M.  I have to believe that kind of money for that many years made them very uncomfortable as it was.  Still they had to know SF was likely going to make him the highest paid shortstop.  I don't think Boras was going to give in until he got that for Correa.  IMO They needed to get closer to that mark for Correa to do an I like MN discount.  An extra 70M is pretty hard to turn down no matter how much you like MN.  If they "truly" wanted him they needed to do better than that.