How Big is the Twins Catching Problem?

[Major League Ready]

23 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The Texas Rangers led the league in stolen bases with 128. The Rangers also led the league in caught stealing with 41. 

The league leading Texas Rangers were caught stealing approximately 25% of the time. 

128+41 = 169. That's 1 attempt per game. Plus 7 extras. 

League Average is 110 Stolen Base Attempts per team over 162 games.  .67 Attempts per game

Omar Narvaez has a career CS% of 22%. Yadier Molina had a career CS% of 40%

 How many bases will be stolen at will? How much do you invest to prevent this specific line item? 

 

 

Not that much.  How many passed balls per game?  How does Narvaez or any other catcher compare in that stat.  I would assume working with pitchers and calling a game is more important than either of these stats but that's a really tough one to quantify.

[TopGunn#22]

I'm convinced Jeffers will never be more than an adequate backup.  The Twins need to either trade for Jansen (BTV has the cost of Moreno or Kirk VERY expensive) or look to acquire Rodriguez from the Pirates.  The cupboard is absolutely bare for the Twins at catcher.  They need to acquire someone with the plan that guy is the starter and Jeffers is the backup.  

[Trov]

I am more concerned about the complete lack of controlling the running game.  Maybe that is more on the pitchers, but fact is teams were running like crazy on him all year when he was catching.  Unless he can hit a ton, never throwing a runner out will pile up after awhile. 

[Karbo]

51 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The Texas Rangers led the league in stolen bases with 128. The Rangers also led the league in caught stealing with 41. 

The league leading Texas Rangers were caught stealing approximately 25% of the time. 

128+41 = 169. That's 1 attempt per game. Plus 7 extras. 

League Average is 110 Stolen Base Attempts per team over 162 games.  .67 Attempts per game

Omar Narvaez has a career CS% of 22%. Yadier Molina had a career CS% of 40%

 How many bases will be stolen at will? How much do you invest to prevent this specific line item? 

 

 

IMO base stealing will go up quite a bit this season, which makes holding guys on and being able to throw them out is going to be much more important. This coaching staf, as of yet, hasn't showed the ability to "coach up" the pitching staff much if any, so it looks to me like they better get a catcher that won't be as overmatched as Jeffers has been so far in his career.

[Riverbrian]

24 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Not that much.  How many passed balls per game?  How does Narvaez or any other catcher compare in that stat.  I would assume working with pitchers and calling a game is more important than either of these stats but that's a really tough one to quantify.

I agree... putting the proper fingers down at the proper time is probably the most important skill a catcher possesses but I have no suggestions on how to quantify that since you don't know the outcome on the fingers not chosen.  

Passed balls per game is something you can tack on to add to the overall story but like CS%, the pitchers have influence over those results. How quickly the pitcher gets the ball to the plate, how many spiked breaking pitches. Either way... there are not a ton of passed balls or stolen bases per game. So, you have to wonder if your investment focus is better spent elsewhere.  

[umterp23]

Throwing out runners is 50/50 proposition.  Pitchers will be limited to the amount of times they throw over to a base to hold a runner is a rule that will make me chuckle.  Catchers have to be in a position to throw a runner out.  Twins love the idea of Jeffers with one leg out to frame low strikes.  Problem #1 for throwing out a runner, no leverage to have a quick release with any strength behind.  Low positioning behind the dish, PB or WP %'s increase exponentially.  Is it all on Jeffers to control as a catcher, shouldn't be when your setup puts you in a bad spot to start with.  

500 AB's at the MLB level, aged 25, one injury to wipe away his mini hot streak, 1st time father during IL stint and a guy who never had a dedicated catching coach until he was drafted.  Too early to say he can't be a solid guy for the twins.  Need a good rotational partner and let him mature some more before we say he sucks.

 

[Riverbrian]

10 minutes ago, Karbo said:

IMO base stealing will go up quite a bit this season, which makes holding guys on and being able to throw them out is going to be much more important. This coaching staf, as of yet, hasn't showed the ability to "coach up" the pitching staff much if any, so it looks to me like they better get a catcher that won't be as overmatched as Jeffers has been so far in his career.

The bases will be bigger, opinions may be adjusting a little but how much of an increase is coming to make it "much more important"? 

We may see an increase but out management is probably going to outweigh everything under the sun.

You get 3 outs per inning to do damage. If you lose an out on the base paths, you have lost 33% of your allotment. That lost 33% is huge when you consider that only 31% of batters on average don't make an out. 

Those numbers will calm teams down on the base paths.  

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

20 hours ago, ashbury said:

For me the ideal 40 man has 3 catchers: a really good one if you can, an experienced backup who perhaps complements the starter in some specific way, and then a young guy who is promising but hasn't established himself but has minor league options so you can stash him at AAA in readiness for when one of the older guys is injured.  A fourth veteran on a minor league contract, break glass in emergency, completes the preparation for the season; having that guy as your third catcher is begging for roster trouble since you can't send him back down at will.

IMO we're missing the first two guys.  It's a leap of faith to think Jeffers is your number one, especially in the absence of another prospect knocking on the door.  He's ideally my number three, and let him fight his way back up.

The FO is going to have to give up salary and/or prospect capital, to cover catcher next season unless they want to admit they're not really contending.

Isn't our break glass in emergency guy now Farmer?  That also is a plus in that they do not have to send him down when not functioning as a catcher.

[ashbury]

14 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Isn't our break glass in emergency guy now Farmer?  That also is a plus in that they do not have to send him down when not functioning as a catcher.

Sure, it's great to have a guy who can finish the game, or even be pressed into service for a game or two over a short period if the other catcher has a relatively minor owie.  Positional flexibility is always good.  But I doubt they view Farmer as a backup catcher, and you do need to have a plan for what-if two of your better catchers are on the actual IL for overlapping periods.  That's the break-glass scenario I had in mind.  If Farmer turns out to be so adept behind the plate that you don't need a third or fourth guy, well, that's an unplanned bonus I guess.

[Bill Ward]

On 11/30/2022 at 10:16 AM, mikelink45 said:

Battey, Wynegar, Laudner, Mauer, Pierzynski, Harper, Suzuki, Mitterwald, Borgman, Steinback, Rosboro, Butera, Walbeck,  That is not a list of greatness from top to bottom, but 5 - 6 of them are top catchers.  Where does Jeffers fit into this list?  He is the only catcher which has to change, but his performance so far has him outside the rank of good (not great) catchers, and the Great Mauer, Battey, Pierzynski, Harper group at the top is a long way from anything we have now. 

Jeffers will be no help. The Twins need a catcher.

[cHawk]

10 minutes ago, Bill Ward said:

Jeffers will be no help. The Twins need a catcher.

Welcome to Twins Daily!

[nicksaviking]

16 hours ago, mnfireman said:

I'd think Toronto would start the conversation by asking for Lee, Duran and possibly Arraez, Gordon or Kirilloff. Are you willing to go that big??

For a guy who's only year as the starter saw him put up a .640 OPS? The value you seem to be putting on him would make him the Twins best player.

The Blue Jays would ask for one of Lee or Duran, then hear a dial tone.

Not that I really have interest in him anyway.

[mnfireman]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

For a guy who's only year as the starter saw him put up a .640 OPS? The value you seem to be putting on him would make him the Twins best player.

The Blue Jays would ask for one of Lee or Duran, then hear a dial tone.

Moreno isn't the starter yet and he put up a .733 OPS as a 22 yr old.

Jansen put up a .640 OPS as a starter in 2019....

[jorgenswest]

9 hours ago, Trov said:

I am more concerned about the complete lack of controlling the running game.  Maybe that is more on the pitchers, but fact is teams were running like crazy on him all year when he was catching.  Unless he can hit a ton, never throwing a runner out will pile up after awhile. 

Gary Sanchez was better than league average at throwing out runners. It wasn’t entirely the pitchers. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, Bill Ward said:

Jeffers will be no help. The Twins need a catcher.

Why?

[RpR]

4 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Why?

Because Jeffers is not a good catcher.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

11 minutes ago, RpR said:

Because Jeffers is not a good catcher.

I didn’t ask you, I asked Bill. Bill can speak to his own claims without evidence.

[RpR]

7 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I didn’t ask you, I asked Bill. Bill can speak to his own claims without evidence.

LOL, ?

[dxpavelka]

22 hours ago, mnfireman said:

I'd think Toronto would start the conversation by asking for Lee, Duran and possibly Arraez, Gordon or Kirilloff. Are you willing to go that big??

So you're thinking Toronto views him as Herschel Walker......

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

So you're thinking Toronto views him as Herschel Walker......

I'm thinking Toronto values him at pretty close to his actual worth, and will then ask for a little more as is their right...

[dxpavelka]

7 hours ago, mnfireman said:

I'm thinking Toronto values him at pretty close to his actual worth, and will then ask for a little more as is their right...

Then they'll never trade him.  Lee, Duran AND one of Arraez, Kirilloff or Gordon?  I can see two of those three and lower level and a lower level lottery ticket type but not three of those five.  And he doesn't have that type of value as long as they have Kirk.  But again, our inability or unwillingness to move prospects to fill an obvious need will continue to keep us from filing those needs and ultimately from competing.

 

[nicksaviking]

10 hours ago, mnfireman said:

I'm thinking Toronto values him at pretty close to his actual worth, and will then ask for a little more as is their right...

Well if his value is equal to, Lee, Duran and Arraez, that would suggest Toronto's back up catcher is better than anyone the Twins already have. Bold take you have there.

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 11/30/2022 at 11:13 AM, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

BIG decision for this FO.  Do they keep grooming Jeffers and add a platoon player or go big with a trade or a Contreras signing?  That decision will tell us a lot about what they think of Jeffers.

I also noticed a comment in a different thread regarding Rule 5 catchers.  Could we snatch one there that would be acceptable to platoon with Jeffers?  Maybe one who has a long-term future also.  I would include that in the equation.

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Ted, I'm not being critical, just curious when I ask, what did you mean that the pitching staff was playing against a stacked deck with Sanchez? 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Will somebody please answer this question for me.? Who calls each pitch for the Twins? Is it the catcher? Is it the manager? Is it a coach? If it is the catcher, shouldn't the Twins be looking primarily for a cerebral, experienced, baseball-wise, catcher, whom the pitchers can trust to make wise, effective calls for certain pitches, at certain locations, against various batters and in various game situations and a personality which is an encourager to the various pitchers, first and foremost? The pitchers need to have trust in their catcher, if the catcher is calling each pitch.  

[DJL44]

On 12/1/2022 at 8:22 AM, Karbo said:

IMO base stealing will go up quite a bit this season, which makes holding guys on and being able to throw them out is going to be much more important.

Then they'll probably tell Jeffers to set up in a crouch.

[DJL44]

17 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Gary Sanchez was better than league average at throwing out runners. It wasn’t entirely the pitchers. 

Agreed, but there is also going to be a lot of noise in SB numbers. The pitcher matters, the runner matters, catchers only get about half the games for a team. With Jeffers you're talking about 38 stolen base attempts in 2022. Nobody would expect OBP to tell the whole story after 38 at-bats. With that small amount of data you're probably better off with a stopwatch measuring pop time and estimating.

Even for his career it's 103 stolen base attempts. You can get some information about batting after 103 at-bats. Then we have the unknown of how Jeffers would do if he stopped setting up with a leg out and set up in a crouch instead to stop the running game when there is a fast baserunner.

[mnfireman]

I have continued doing my homework on Toronto's catchers and their team in general. Maybe I set the ask for Moreno too high, but I think Toronto asks big for him. 

They have a top closer in Jordan Romero, so they don't need Duran, unless they plan on converting him to a starter, which they do need. They also need a LH batting OF after trading Teoscar Hernandez. They also have an above average Utility player in Whit Merrifield, but he will be 34 on opening day and has been trending downward since 2019. They carried 3 catchers all year in order to use Kirk at DH regularly, releasing Tyler Heineman in May and Zach Collins in September, both of whom were picked up by Pittsburgh. 

According to BTV (some TD posters favorite place to build trades) Moreno's median value is 53.7, Kirk's median value is 39.3, and Jansen's median value is 24.9. These values would make Jansen the most likely to be traded, but I've read where Toronto really likes him. And they don't have to trade any of them, they could carry 3 catchers and use 1 of them as the DH. I won't post all the Twins median values unless I include them in a proposed trade and I won't include Duran, Miranda or Polanco as they don't fit Toronto's current needs.

Kepler (5.8) and Arraez (19.7) might get Jansen

Larnach (14.6) and Mahle (11.2) might get Jansen

Arraez (19.7) and Gray (6.1) might get Jansen

Kepler (5.8) and Ober (19.5) might get Jansen

Kepler(5.8), Thielbar (13.4) and Gray (6.1) or Gordon (6.7) might get Jansen

Kirilloff (11.9) and Mahle (11.2) and Jax (.7), Lopez (.7), or Pagan (0) might get Jansen 

Kepler (5.8), Arraez (19.7) and Mahle (11.2) might get Kirk (might have to add Jax, Pagan, or Lopez )

Larnach (14.6), Arraez (19.7) and Gray (6.1) might get Kirk

Kirilloff (11.9), Arraez (19.7) and Mahle (11.2) might get Kirk (Twins lose 2/3s of 1B options)

Arraez (19.7) Thielbar (13.4) and Gray (6.1) or Gordon (6.7) might get Kirk

Lee (38.9) or Ryan (38.6) and Jax (.7), Lopez (.7) or Pagan (0) (or 2 of the 3) might get Kirk  

Lee (38.9) or Ryan (38.6) and Arraez (19.7) might get Moreno

Lee (38.9) or Ryan (38.6), Kirilloff (11.9) and Gordon (6.7) might get Moreno

There are many more possible combinations, but these are enough to show that it will take a lot to get 1 of the Toronto catchers. 

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Will somebody please answer this question for me.? Who calls each pitch for the Twins? Is it the catcher? Is it the manager? Is it a coach? If it is the catcher, shouldn't the Twins be looking primarily for a cerebral, experienced, baseball-wise, catcher, whom the pitchers can trust to make wise, effective calls for certain pitches, at certain locations, against various batters and in various game situations and a personality which is an encourager to the various pitchers, first and foremost? The pitchers need to have trust in their catcher, if the catcher is calling each pitch.  

with the pitch clock the catchers needs to be quick in making the right call, because the clock is ticking. A quick & confident call will help out a pitcher a lot.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think people look at other catchers statistics at all when commenting on Jeffers' relative value. Nor do they look at the stats posted here and how many more or less SBs he (and the pitchers) give up in a year relative to other teams. Not even a little. Nor how valuable a steal is. 

He's also 25 and didn't play much in the minors. I really think people are wrong in their lack of patience here.

That said, I'd like a much better compliment to him than what they are likely to have. 

This is nowhere near their biggest issue for next year. SS is, and it isn't close. Then backup CF, since Buxton will play 100 games if the team is lucky.