Do Other Top Shortstops Entertain Twins?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins are entering an offseason of extreme uncertainty when it comes to the shortstop position. After watching Carlos Correa fall into their laps this past spring, the Twins will need to decide where they go from here. Will any of the other top options be available to them?

 

Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Late in spring training, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were able to acquire Carlos Correa following a trade of Josh Donaldson and his contract to the New York Yankees. While the deal was technically for three years, it was always seen as a one-year pact given the sequential player options. Minnesota would be best positioned to pay Correa over a long-term agreement, but if that doesn’t work out, they’ll need to explore other options.

Jermaine Palacios was probably the most veteran-ready internal candidate to hold the position for Minnesota until the return of Royce Lewis next summer. He was jettisoned off of the 40-man roster and claimed by the Detroit Tigers. That leaves Minnesota in limbo, and there’s a good bet the Opening Day shortstop isn’t currently employed by the organization.

After flashing his talent in his brief time with the Twins, there are plenty of reasons to understand why the Twins may opt to wait for Lewis’ return. He’ll be coming off his second ACL surgery, and there were already questions about him sticking at the position, but he definitely looked the part in a limited sample.

If the Twins want to sign a long-term answer at the position, and that they can’t find common ground with Correa, is there any reason to believe either Trea Turner or Dansby Swanson would even make it to them? Why wouldn’t their current clubs bring them back?

Los Angeles allowed Corey Seager to leave a year ago. He got $325 million from the Texas Rangers after Turner was acquired at the 2021 deadline from the Washington Nationals. Turner has already been invested in when it comes to prospect capital, and paying him to stay for the long haul makes a good deal of sense. He’s much less of a sell to the fan base than a former Houston Astros talent in Correa, and there’s already been an acclimation process.

Yes, the Dodgers have an elite farm system, but they don’t have a ready-made shortstop. Allowing Turner to continue manning the position, for an organization that already prints money, seems all too straightforward.

There’s an easier argument to make for a team moving on in Swanson. He’s still young, but this is truly his first breakout season. His 115 OPS+ is not otherworldly, and he’s going to command a premium that could very well outweigh his production. Braden Shewmake and his .715 OPS at Triple-A is hardly a lock to replace production, but a top prospect looms for the Braves. Like Turner, if Atlanta wants to pay someone to play shortstop, the guy they already know makes sense.

In both scenarios, things benefit the Twins in terms of retaining Correa. If both teams losing star shortstops bring them back, that’s two fewer teams willing to look at the open market. Correa seems unlikely to go to either organization, and both the Cubs and Giants continue to look like possible destinations. No matter what though, if Minnesota isn’t spending on Correa, then spending on anyone else at short makes little sense.

Do you agree?

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[Brett]

I appreciate the fact that shortstop is a demanding position, and surely should be the centerpiece of a competitive team.

However, I’m looking at box scores and stats of starting shortstops for the remaining 4 teams, and all I see is competent performers, not game-altering talents:

Jeremy Peña

IKF

Bryson Scott

Ha-Seong Kim

Not exactly Murderer’s Row. I leave it to the good care of you and the other smart folks at Twins Daily to tell me if this year is a major exception, or if we’re all just perhaps overcooking the importance of shortstops.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I think "spending" may need a little more clarification.

If the Twins believe Lewis will be back in 23, is a 1/$5M contract for a defense-first SS too much?

If they dont' think Lewis will be back (effectively) in 23, is a 1-2yr/$20-25 for a middle of the road veteran too much?

I know the market is slim after the big names, but regardless the Twins currently have a gap and need to fill it with a few AAAA names at a minimum

Could always bring Nick Punto out of retirement.

[TwinsDr2021]

5 minutes ago, Brett said:

I appreciate the fact that shortstop is a demanding position, and surely should be the centerpiece of a competitive team.

However, I’m looking at box scores and stats of starting shortstops for the remaining 4 teams, and all I see is competent performers, not game-altering talents:

Jeremy Peña

IKF

Bryson Scott

Ha-Seong Kim

Not exactly Murderer’s Row. I leave it to the good care of you and the other smart folks at Twins Daily to tell me if this year is a major exception, or if we’re all just perhaps overcooking the importance of shortstops.

You can't look at the SS and say a great SS isn't needed, you have to look at the whole team.

Do the Twins have Realmuto, Hoskins, Harper, Schwarber, Nola, Wheeler, Suarez, Alarado, Dominguez, Hand?

Do they have Darvixh, Musgrove, Suarez, Garcia, Machado, Kim, Croneworth, Soto?

Do they have Judge, Torres, IKF, Rizzo, Stanton, Trevino, Cortes, Colde, Homes, Tailon, King?

Do they have Valdez, Verlander, Javier, Stanke, Garcia, Pressly, Montero, Neris, Alvarez, Tucker, Alltuve, Pena, Bregman?

 

And the answer is the Twins have some players like that and need to add more, where is the easiest spot to add those type of players this year? It seems the FA starting pitchers is limited to Rodon (maybe Bassitt) and some others that aren't looking at the twins. The outfield has Judge and ???, 1B, 3B? and Catcher has Contreras.

The Twins seemingly have money to spend and not much money tied up in the future, most players that are worth anything have multiple years before hitting free agency.  So do the Twins get into a bidding war for the top starting pitcher who may or may not even consider the twins without some concessions on pitching philosophy. (My opinion completely) A game they have never won at, or focus on offensive with a current staff of Gray, Ryan, Mahle and a few guys that could easily start as long type relievers that could go 3-5 innings and get thought the last two spots in the rotation and earn a bigger role. (Ober, Winder, Varland, Maeda (possibly Duran), SWR, Padack (eventually), Henriquez. That could be the staff with Thielbar, Jax, Moran and go out and sign a Diaz? or Hand/Rogers/Fulmer/Robertson?

Just my two cents.

 

[Doctor Gast]

I agree with you Ted. I heard not too long ago that maybe just maybe that LAD might not pursue Trea Turner and focus on Judge and go with Lux at SS. IMO Phillies are our main competition for Correa, with Turner available they might just go after Turner instead. Reducing the demand for Correa.

[Blyleven2011]

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I think "spending" may need a little more clarification.

If the Twins believe Lewis will be back in 23, is a 1/$5M contract for a defense-first SS too much?

If they dont' think Lewis will be back (effectively) in 23, is a 1-2yr/$20-25 for a middle of the road veteran too much?

I know the market is slim after the big names, but regardless the Twins currently have a gap and need to fill it with a few AAAA names at a minimum

Could always bring Nick Punto out of retirement.

Lew Ford  is still playing  in the east coast just notch above town ball in the Penn league I think  ....

There's quite a few players retired from major league baseball that are still playing in America or internationally  ...

 

Yes we need a shortstop  but I haven't given it much thought of who is possibly available  ...

I'll wait until it's official and the list of free agents are available  and evaluate teams shortstops that might be available in a trade ... 

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Do the Twins have Realmuto, Hoskins, Harper, Schwarber, Nola, Wheeler, Suarez, Alarado, Dominguez, Hand?

Do they have Darvixh, Musgrove, Suarez, Garcia, Machado, Kim, Croneworth, Soto?

Do they have Judge, Torres, IKF, Rizzo, Stanton, Trevino, Cortes, Colde, Homes, Tailon, King?

Do they have Valdez, Verlander, Javier, Stanke, Garcia, Pressly, Montero, Neris, Alvarez, Tucker, Alltuve, Pena, Bregman?

They Do Not

[Richie the Rally Goat]

[minman1982]

Let's look at the top of the list.  Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts are both going to long term deals in the $30-35M/yr range.  It would not shock me if neither of these guys changes teams.  Correa is probably number three behind these two in terms of free agent shortstops.  Dansby Swanson is probably about the same as Correa or at least not that far behind.  Beyond that you have some serviceable and cheaper options in Elvis Andrus and Jose Iglesias but neither of those would seem like a long term solution.  Tim Anderson may not return to the White Sox, so he could be available.

The question I have is how many teams are in the market for a long term (say 6 to 8 years) contract worth $30M+/year?  Could the Twins get Correa again (or Turner/Bogaerts) on another short term, creative contract with a high annual value but short term?  If they pursue a cheaper option, would the remaining $25-30M be spent somewhere else (pitching)?  I think the FO assumes that either Royce Lewis or Austin Martin is going to be the future answer.  If a player like Trea Turner fell into their laps (I doubt he will), would they pull the trigger on a 8-10 year/$250-350M deal?

[beckmt]

11 hours ago, minman1982 said:

Let's look at the top of the list.  Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts are both going to long term deals in the $30-35M/yr range.  It would not shock me if neither of these guys changes teams.  Correa is probably number three behind these two in terms of free agent shortstops.  Dansby Swanson is probably about the same as Correa or at least not that far behind.  Beyond that you have some serviceable and cheaper options in Elvis Andrus and Jose Iglesias but neither of those would seem like a long term solution.  Tim Anderson may not return to the White Sox, so he could be available.

The question I have is how many teams are in the market for a long term (say 6 to 8 years) contract worth $30M+/year?  Could the Twins get Correa again (or Turner/Bogaerts) on another short term, creative contract with a high annual value but short term?  If they pursue a cheaper option, would the remaining $25-30M be spent somewhere else (pitching)?  I think the FO assumes that either Royce Lewis or Austin Martin is going to be the future answer.  If a player like Trea Turner fell into their laps (I doubt he will), would they pull the trigger on a 8-10 year/$250-350M deal?

You also have forgotten Lee.  My feeling is that if you go cheap, move Polonco back to SS.  Twins now have mainly a fly ball staff. You could even play Urshala there for a few months.  Julian may also be ready soon.  Twins have a lot of decisions to make, and I for one would rather put extra money into pitching, extending Gray for a couple of more years, finding one or two bullpen arms (we still have Lopez for 2 years and Alcala may come back). Fullmer would be fine for me for a couple of years.  IF you want to get a shortstop go big and let things settle out,  some propects may be back a very good reliever or a #2 starter. 

[Major League Ready]

21 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

You can't look at the SS and say a great SS isn't needed, you have to look at the whole team.

Do the Twins have Realmuto, Hoskins, Harper, Schwarber, Nola, Wheeler, Suarez, Alarado, Dominguez, Hand?

Do they have Darvixh, Musgrove, Suarez, Garcia, Machado, Kim, Croneworth, Soto?

Do they have Judge, Torres, IKF, Rizzo, Stanton, Trevino, Cortes, Colde, Homes, Tailon, King?

Do they have Valdez, Verlander, Javier, Stanke, Garcia, Pressly, Montero, Neris, Alvarez, Tucker, Alltuve, Pena, Bregman?

 

And the answer is the Twins have some players like that and need to add more, where is the easiest spot to add those type of players this year? It seems the FA starting pitchers is limited to Rodon (maybe Bassitt) and some others that aren't looking at the twins. The outfield has Judge and ???, 1B, 3B? and Catcher has Contreras.

The Twins seemingly have money to spend and not much money tied up in the future, most players that are worth anything have multiple years before hitting free agency.  So do the Twins get into a bidding war for the top starting pitcher who may or may not even consider the twins without some concessions on pitching philosophy. (My opinion completely) A game they have never won at, or focus on offensive with a current staff of Gray, Ryan, Mahle and a few guys that could easily start as long type relievers that could go 3-5 innings and get thought the last two spots in the rotation and earn a bigger role. (Ober, Winder, Varland, Maeda (possibly Duran), SWR, Padack (eventually), Henriquez. That could be the staff with Thielbar, Jax, Moran and go out and sign a Diaz? or Hand/Rogers/Fulmer/Robertson?

Just my two cents.

 

No, they don't have all those great players and retaining (not adding) Correa is not going to make them anywhere near as good as those other teams.  Lewis or Brooks doing a good job replacing him and spending that $35M on players like Cruz that produce nearly as well for 40% of the money is how a mid market team can compete.

You listed the most players for Houston the team that let him and George Springer go.  It's all about producing the Correa / Springer / Valdez / Bregman / Alvarez, etc.  Then, spending on free agents matter retaining Correa or signing big free agents means nothing if we don't build a great core from within.  

[gman]

For the Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson teams if they won't pay for these 3, then they won't pay for Correa. The Twins for pay for any of them. You're right in that the Twins are in no position to challenge the best teams in baseball with or without Correa. Consequently I don't think it's much of a reach to expect the team to continue with the player development position for building a club. If they get lucky and fall into a division title next year, I wouldn't expect them to go out and bring back a free agent star for 2024 unless the division title is due to development of in house talent. They have a lot of players with potential, but not a lot of verified success. Beyond Arreaz and if healthy Polanco,  what else do you have. You can't count on Buxton for more than 30-40 healthy games a year. The veteran portion of the starting rotation is on 1 year deals at this point, and I would think more about trying to extend a few this winter.

[PatPfund]

I totally agree with Ted that next year's Opening Day is probably not in the organization right now. Palacios was definitely the most MLB-ready, and he essentially played himself out of the competition in September (with at-bats of the quality that got pitchers replaced with the universal DH).

We also demonstrably need far MORE than a shortstop since we had Correa this year, and were not good. Spending over $30 million on SS will both severely restrict adding in other areas of need (because the people who point out our roster is several players short of the current LCS teams are correct), and IT HAS LITTLE HISTORY OF WORKING.

Because @Brett this year is NOT a fluke. No team in at least a decade has won the Series spending big dollars at SS. Your SS can be great or not (though they do need to be decent), but you need a complete roster around them, and NOBODY has managed that budget strategy successfully after committing big coin to SS. (And any team that pulls it off is almost certainly going to be one like the Yankees or Dodgers who have revenues that dwarf ours.)

The Astros are the model here. Develop a great SS, play him through the arbitration years, then let him walk into free agency and move on so you can put money into proven areas of need (like elite starting pitching and higher power bats than any shortstop wields).

The glove is most important here with a bat that doesn't hurt the order and a salary that doesn't limit the roster.

[MTV]

On 10/21/2022 at 11:52 AM, Brett said:

I appreciate the fact that shortstop is a demanding position, and surely should be the centerpiece of a competitive team.

However, I’m looking at box scores and stats of starting shortstops for the remaining 4 teams, and all I see is competent performers, not game-altering talents:

Jeremy Peña

IKF

Bryson Scott

Ha-Seong Kim

Not exactly Murderer’s Row. I leave it to the good care of you and the other smart folks at Twins Daily to tell me if this year is a major exception, or if we’re all just perhaps overcooking the importance of shortstops.

Those teams have powerful offenses around them, and therefore don’t need a massive SS. Compare Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper to Nick Gordon and Max Kepler, or Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez to Urshela/Polanco/Miranda. This team needs a stud somewhere and SS is the most needed position and easiest one to fill with a star.

[twinfan]

While it would be great to bring in Turner for 5+ years or bring back Correa, it's definitely a long shot. With so many big name shortstops out there, Correa may not get the offers he is seeking and may return to us. Iglesias is a good fit and he has hit well in the recent past. I don't think Lewis will be the answer but I have never been high on him. Polanco at short didn't work in the past and won't work here. Urshela is a possibility but then we need a third baseman unless Miranda goes there and Arraez to first (or vice versa). And I wouldn't overpay for Swanson. Let's see what happens.