The Loss of Smeltzer Brings Dozier to a Close

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins outrighted lefty Devin Smeltzer off the 40-man roster this week, and rather than take another trip across town to St. Paul, he opted for an opportunity to utilize his skills at the big league level for an organization willing to keep him. In doing so, the Twins chapter with Brian Dozier is closed.

 

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

 

Brian Dozier hasn’t played professional baseball since the 2020-pandemic-stricken-season. He last played for the Minnesota Twins during 2018. There was talk of him being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers earlier for Jose De Leon, and even while Minnesota asked for the like of Cody Bellinger or Walker Buehler, those discussions never moved far. Ultimately, Minnesota netted a return of Logan Forsythe, Luke Raley, and Devin Smeltzer following an agreement set by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine.

Fast forward to where we are now, and things have come full circle for both organizations.

Dozier wound up playing in just 47 games for the Dodgers. Down the stretch in 2018, he posted a .650 OPS and was never able to regain his 134 OPS+ form from the 42-homer season in 2016. Raley was ultimately sent back to the Dodgers when Minnesota acquired Kenta Maeda by including Brusdar Graterol. Forsythe was never meant to be more than a stopgap, and Smeltzer was the only player remaining.

Set to become a free agent following the World Series this season, Smeltzer got a jumpstart on his alternatives by denying his outright to St. Paul. Coming off a career-high 70 1/3 innings for Minnesota, Smeltzer posted a career-best 3.71 ERA. He made 15 appearances, including 12 stars, and while the 5.23 FIP suggests some smoke and mirrors, his results ultimately didn’t reflect the path set out for him.

Over the course of his Twins career, there has been a handful of realities. As a southpaw, Smeltzer is not a high-velocity arm, and he doesn’t pile up strikeouts, but he’s a guy that’s shown an ability to create a slow bleed and benefit as his outings go on. Homers have certainly been a bugaboo for him at times, but the former Los Angeles prospect has also done a great job in limiting free passes. The H/9 totals have jumped in recent seasons, and the strikeout numbers have tumbled, but he’s worked around traffic to generate solid outings.

Ultimately, it looked as though Smeltzer could be an ideal long reliever for a big-league club. It’s odd that Minnesota didn’t opt for that path more frequently this season with a bullpen so obviously needing someone in that role. Having been shuttled back and forth with no real opportunity to settle in at either place, Smeltzer likely finds the lack of direction for his future with the Twins, and therefore will look to greener pastures.

You’d be hard-pressed to argue against Smeltzer being a big-league arm, and at just 27 years old, he has the runway to become an arm that got away. No matter where he winds up, his focus will likely be in contributing at the Major League level regardless of his outlined role.

The Twins will turn to the rest of their internal depth when looking to eat innings, and we’ll see what’s next for the final piece of the Dozier trade.

 

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[Linus]

It is strange that they didn’t try him at long relief. I mean it’s not like they didn’t have a spot or four to upgrade in the pen. 

[Blyleven2011]

It's strange that they didn't try and trade him when his value was peaking ...

Smeltzer is a starting pitcher because his mental preparation  is better for a starter ,,, I always thought he pitched better as a,starter ...

He'll latch on to another team  and do okay  , he's a lefty and also you can't have enough pitching but the FO evidently thinks we do  ....

That's my plan and I'm sticking to it  ...

[Dave The Dastardly]

Odd that we cut Smeltzer and hung onto (at least so far) pitchers that shouldn't be allowed anywhere near a pitching rubber. If there's a plan it must be so devious we mere mortals can't decipher it.

[Wizard11]

I am grateful for what Smeltzer gave us this year.  I think the FO made the right call.  There was little evidence that he should take up a 40 man roster spot.  There certainly are arguably others on the 40 man that should be dropped but that does not create a very compelling argument to keep Smeltzer.  I wish him the best on his next stop.

[rv78]

Not surprising he was let go. The Twins have tried him as a starter multiple times and while he has shown a few really good outings he could never put it together over the long haul. As a bullpen guy, even though it wasn't many times, he was worse. I think his time to move on was here and the right decision was made for both him and the Twins. It's time to let guys like Varland, and Woods-Richardson have a chance.

[Nine of twelve]

I agree about the smoke and mirrors comment in the OP. He could be effective at times, but only at such times when his control was perfect. And if he were right handed with exactly the same stuff he would have been even less likely to succeed. Roster spots need to go to potential up-and-comers, not 27-year-olds who are borderline at best. So it is the proper move to thank him for his efforts and his service and to wish him well in his future endeavors.

[Nine of twelve]

47 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

It's strange that they didn't try and trade him when his value was peaking ...

I'm afraid that his peak value was a pretty low peak, and no team would have offered a player who was likely to become a major leaguer.

[tony&rodney]

Makes sense for Smeltzer and the Twins to part ways. He never fit the profile of an analytic pitcher. The Twins gave him some experience and it was time to move on.

[Whitey333]

Good for Smeltzer.  I'm hoping he finds a real major league team with real coaches and a common sense plan to develop a major league roster.  It sure seems to be lacking in Minnesota.  Where else can you have two terrible back to back seasons and each time shrug your shoulders and say it was bad luck and injuries?  This FO loves to take bows for the moves they make but criticism is not allowed.  It violates the plan.

[rv78]

3 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Good for Smeltzer.  I'm hoping he finds a real major league team with real coaches and a common sense plan to develop a major league roster.  It sure seems to be lacking in Minnesota.  Where else can you have two terrible back to back seasons and each time shrug your shoulders and say it was bad luck and injuries?  This FO loves to take bows for the moves they make but criticism is not allowed.  It violates the plan.

The problem is they are being praised for their accomplishments by St Peter who oversees the entire organization. Why deviate from the "Plan" when your boss thinks it is working. The only person who can bring this whole mess to a halt is the OWNER and he seems to either be 1. On board with their decisions or 2. MIA.

[tony&rodney]

15 minutes ago, rv78 said:

The only person who can bring this whole mess to a halt is the OWNER and he seems to either be 1. On board with their decisions or 2. MIA.

Pohlad doesn't have much of an interest in baseball. He is generally active in the community, a good business man, and baseball is a good business. If the team begins to lose money, Pohlad will raise an eyebrow. He has more important concerns in his life.

[Captain18s]

Smeltzer was gone when he questioned the early hook he got in mid season. From golden boy to has been.

[Old fox]

The feeling is mutual as to win. The Twins have too many pitchers whose ability depends which side of the bed they get out bed on. The Twins can ver easily clear $40m  off of payroll by releasing Sano~, Pagan, Archer, Bundy, Megill, Columbe, Garlick, Stahek, A.  Sanchez, Fulmer,  Sanchez, Hamilton, Contrases. Rogers salary will stop on 12/31/22. And they resign Correa at $37m for 5 yrs. with a. 3 yr. mutual option. 
Then sign FA Contreras (c), Leclerc (rp), Gallo, (of).  Then, I would be open to trading Kepler, or Kirilloff, or Larnach and a position prospect to the Marlins, or  Rockies, for a starting pitcher. Just dreaming!

[Old fox]

The feeling is mutual as to win. The Twins have too many pitchers whose ability depends which side of the bed they get out bed on. The Twins can ver easily clear $40m  off of payroll by releasing Sano~, Pagan, Archer, Bundy, Megill, Columbe, Garlick, Stahek, A.  Sanchez, Fulmer,  Sanchez, Hamilton, Contrases. Rogers salary will stop on 12/31/22. And they resign Correa at $37m for 5 yrs. with a. 3 yr. mutual option. 
Then sign FA Contreras (c), Leclerc (rp), Gallo, (of).  Then, I would be open to trading Kepler, or Kirilloff, or Larnach and a position prospect to the Marlins, for a starting pitcher. Just dreaming!

[jmlease1]

Smeltzer was behind Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Winder and Woods Richardson in the starter pecking order and rightfully so. (When Paddack comes back, he'd be behind him too. He might be behind Sands) Should they be spending a roster spot on the 40-man for a depth pitcher who profiles as a 5th starter and didn't seem to have a future as a reliever?

I wish him luck in his next stop, but he's a borderline MLB player and doesn't do anything to move the needle for the Twins rotation right now.