Guardians 4, Twins 3: Cold Offense, Defensive Miscues, Cost the Twins the Game

[Thiéres Rabelo]

Bailey Ober had a fine start in his return from the injured list, delivering five solid shutout innings. The offense came through early but went ice-cold for the rest of the game, and Cleveland took advantage of a couple of defensive miscues to steal the game late.

Image courtesy of David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober, 5 IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 5K (70 pitches, 47 strikes, 67.1%)
Home Runs: none
Bottom 3 WPA: Griffin Jax (-.305), Jhoan Duran (-.239), Nick Gordon (-.123)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Ober looks sharp in his return, tosses five scoreless
Bailey Ober was activated from the 60-day injured list earlier on Friday and was set to make his first big league start since June 1. That last start, which came a few days before he was placed on the 15-day injured list due to a right groin strain, didn’t make for a very good impression, as he gave up five runs in a 5-0 loss to a fourth-place Detroit team. But since returning to action on a minor league rehab assignment, he looked sharp, maintaining a 3.24 ERA through four starts in the minors. That good performance carried on into tonight’s game.

Ober looked fantastic to start this game. It took him only 32 pitches to get through the first three innings, and he didn’t allow a single hit in that span. Despite not missing a lot of bats and allowing some hard contact, Ober made sure to induce bad-quality contact. Cleveland hitters couldn’t figure him out earlier, and the only Guardians baserunner came when José Ramírez got hit on the foot during the bottom of the first.

The offense came through in response to Ober’s hot start. José Miranda nearly hit a home run in the first after a tremendous 12-pitch at-bat, but he had to settle for a double. Cleveland starter Triston McKenzie got on a roll and retired six consecutive batters after that Miranda double, but he ran into trouble during the third inning. Luis Arráez and Carlos Correa hit back-to-back two-out singles, and Miranda made McKenzie pay. With another double, the rookie pushed Arráez across to score the game’s first run.

The bats weren’t done. Gio Urshela led off the top of the fourth with a ground ball single, and a couple of at-bats later, Jake Cave crushed the first pitch he saw on the at-bat for a 412-feet two-run bomb, making it 3-0 Minnesota. That poor ball – may it rest in peace – left his bat at 105.2 MPH.

Ober found himself in his only jam of the game in the bottom of the fourth. Ramírez reached for the second time on the night by drawing a one-out walk, then suddenly reached third when Óscar González knocked a two-out single. Ober calmly struck out the last batter to end the threat, though. He came back for the fifth, his final inning of the night, and completed his shutout on 14 pitches.

As solid as he had been this season before he got injured – he maintained a 3.25 ERA through the first six of his seven starts before tonight – this was actually Ober’s first shutout of the season. Now, the Twins have gotten three shutout starts from their starters in the last four games, which have combined for a total of 19 innings.

Cleveland takes advantage of mistakes, takes the lead
It wasn’t just the starting pitching that started clicking for the Twins in the last few days. Coming into tonight’s game, Minnesota’s bullpen had pitched nine consecutive shutout innings in the previous three games. Michael Fulmer came into tonight’s game in relief of Ober, and he extended that streak to ten innings with a scoreless sixth in which he pitched around a Ramírez double.

But that streak came to an end during the seventh inning, and it all started with a fielding error. Andrés Giménez reached on a throwing error by Nick Gordon to lead off the inning. He was moved up to third on an Owen Miller single next and scored the Guardians’ first run on a Myles Straw one-out single off Griffin Jax (who was replacing Caleb Thielbar). Had Gordon not made the fielding error, not only would Gimenez not have scored, but Cleveland wouldn’t have tied the game. Jax retired Steven Kwan for the second out of the inning, but he couldn’t get Amed Rosario, who lined to center for a two-run single, to tie it up.

After the Cave home run in the fourth, the offense couldn’t figure out McKenzie anymore, going 1-for-12 against him before he departed the game. The bats also went down in order in the top of the eighth, allowing Cleveland to snatch the lead in the home half of the inning. And once again, they took advantage of a Minnesota mistake. Before he could record a single out, Jhoan Duran lost the first two batters on back-to-back singles. Then, on a wild pitch in which Gary Sánchez couldn’t find the ball behind him, pinch-runner Ernie Clement had time to round third and score the winning run.

Postgame interview

What’s Next?
On Saturday, both teams will be back on the field for a doubleheader. Game one is set to begin at 12:10 pm CDT, with rookie Louie Varland (3.38 ERA) taking on staff ace Shane Bieber (2.91 ERA). Then, with first pitch scheduled for 6:10 pm CDT, Josh Winder (3.83 ERA) gets the start of game two, facing Konnor Pilkington (4.30 ERA).

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	TOT
Moran	0	40	0	0	0	40
Jax	0	0	0	18	22	40
Thielbar	0	0	12	12	15	39
Duran	0	0	0	19	16	35
Fulmer	0	0	0	21	11	32
López	0	0	17	0	0	17
Megill	0	0	0	14	0	14
Pagán	0	0	0	0	0	0
Sanchez	0	0	0	0	0	0

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[ashbury]

The average team scores 4 runs a game.  Score more than that, your chances of winning are good.  Score fewer, your chances are not.

Baseball's a simple game like that, sometimes.  Season on the line, and our Twins scored 3.

[minman1982]

Looks like Cleveland pretty much sealed the deal tonight.  Twins have some work to do in the off season if they want to go to the playoffs in 2023.  I always thought that 2023 and/or 2024 would be the best chances for this group to make a run in the playoffs.  They are in a better place than they were a year ago but still have some room to improve.

[KnoblauchWasFramed]

Nothing more to say about this joke called Rocco than I've seen all I've ever needed to see of him.  And I'll say it for the thousandth time... THIS TEAM WILL NEVER SUCCEED WITH ROCCO AND THE SPREADSHEET.  NEVER.  

[Danchat]

7 minutes ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

Nothing more to say about this joke called Rocco than I've seen all I've ever needed to see of him.  And I'll say it for the thousandth time... THIS TEAM WILL NEVER SUCCEED WITH ROCCO AND THE SPREADSHEET.  NEVER.  

What spreadsheet decision lost the game today? The back end of the bullpen lost the game, in baseball that's sometimes going to happen even when Jax/Thielbar/Duran were pitching well up to this point. And spreadsheet or not, the lineup is decimated by injuries.

[MABB1959]

Same thing year after year.   The only way not to get frustrated is to come to terms that this team probably will never turn it around.  They can’t or won’t get an Ace or even #2 quality pitcher.  My guess is no pitcher in the prime of his career would not to waste it with the Twins.  When we do get quality players they let them go for little to nothing.  I am 100% sure Berrios did not want to stay.  He has bigger goals.  Probably 3-4 others that got out or want out.  Instead they ALWAYS are looking for the cheaper players hoping for resurgence in their career.   These players either get worse or can’t stay healthy.   

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Pennant drive sputters...

[tony&rodney]

Sanchez or Maile?

Miranda or Naylor?

Gimenez or Gordon?

Ramirez or Urshela?

Rosario or Correa?

Kwan or Cave?

Straw or Celestino?

Gonzalez or Contreras?

The bench, starting pitching, and bullpens?

The Twins simply do not have the talent up and down the roster. Sure there are a few guys we might pick and maybe an injured player too, but injured players cannot win games and there is a whole entire difference in styles as well. Cleveland plays fundamental baseball and has an energy and talent lacking in the Minnesota team.

The Twins are playing hard and hustling but they are a step short of Cleveland at this time. 

If Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, or others are too injured to play they need to try replacements. Maybe Billy Hamilton. Maybe someone else. Right now Caleb Hamilton is just taking up a spot that could be used for anyone else: Wallner, etc.

Tough to catch a break if you don't look for one.

[KnoblauchWasFramed]

28 minutes ago, Danchat said:

What spreadsheet decision lost the game today? The back end of the bullpen lost the game, in baseball that's sometimes going to happen even when Jax/Thielbar/Duran were pitching well up to this point. And spreadsheet or not, the lineup is decimated by injuries.

Bailey Ober tonight - 5IP / 1 H / 5 K / 70 Total Pitches

Who was it that decided to pull Ober after 5 near perfect innings and go to said bullpen that blew the game.  Every extra inning that Ober would have been allowed to pitch was one less inning that the bullpen got to.  Ober had 4 full rehab starts and was fully capable of, at the bare minimum, pitching one more inning if not pushing into the 7th, 

All the way to the bitter end of this horrible season when we are in must win mode and can't afford to give away any of these 5 games and Rocco still shows he is completely overmatched and incapable of making "on the fly decisions".  Rocco determined before the game even started that Ober would pitch 5 innings no matter what.  No matter how good he did there was never a scenario where he would pitch the 6th.  And when Ober was at only 70 pitches and was shutting down the Guardians in a must win game, Rocco was not able to make a split decision and followed The Spreadsheet and went to the bullpen and the rest his history.  Just like the 70 other times he's done the same exact thing this season.    

[Mark G]

40 minutes ago, Danchat said:

What spreadsheet decision lost the game today? The back end of the bullpen lost the game, in baseball that's sometimes going to happen even when Jax/Thielbar/Duran were pitching well up to this point. And spreadsheet or not, the lineup is decimated by injuries.

The back end of the bullpen might have lost the game, but every one that pitched tonight pitched last night as well, with Thielbar having pitched Wednesday too.  Your starter going the 3rd time through the order, or your reliever going for the 3rd night in a row.  Not a hard choice, and to this extremely humble observer, Rocco makes the wrong one far too often.  Looking at the bullpen spread sheet, how many of our back end guys are available tomorrow at all, much less for both games?  If you push them tomorrow, who comes in Sunday?  We have been saying for months that the starters have to pitch deeper into games, or the pen burns out.  I am hoping for a sweep of the next 4 games, but with our pen being spent, injuries are the least of our problems.  Short starts are problem #1, and it is a self induced problem.  

[tony&rodney]

The White Sox lost tonight because they made an error in a critical situation. The Twins lost with the Gordon error and Sanchez not going back to the screen and then looking for the ball after it got past him. Urshela and Miranda are covering ricochets up either line because you cannot give up two bases on that play which is why it is so rare. Cleveland makes the play to end the game on a slow roller. Can't win if you can't make the plays.

[tony&rodney]

Tomorrow it looks like Varland and Moran in Game 1 and Winder and Sanchez in Game 2; sweep.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I love the way Francona substituted that pinch runner in the bottom of the 8th.

Instead of putting in the pinch runner right away after the lead off batter reaches first, like lots of managers do automatically, wait another batter or two to see what happens. If the next batter hits into a double play, you just lost the substitution and lost your batter with nothing to show for it. Also possible is a bunch of strikeouts or fly outs, and the pinch runner never makes it around the bases. Sure, that might have been a bunting situation 10-20 years ago too, but times are changing as are the players.

Obviously situations are going to be different, but that was very well done by Francona. And it won them the game.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

13 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

you cannot give up two bases on that play

Actually, four bases, if you count the trail runner. 

[h2oface]

Gordon is not the man, apparently. A pretty routine short throw was the game.  (Plus 0-4 with 3 Ks.) May as well have happened this game. Then our great Correa just couldn’t make the great play and the two unearned runs. Quite a telling sequence. 3/4runs simple? Execution knows no averages. And double header coming up. Bullpen couldn’t even do back to back games! Execution. 3 runs was plenty if plays are executed. 3 run lead going into the bottom of the 7th. I believe averages will show that means wins in more cases than the 4/3 run difference. Muah. Kiss it goodbye.  
 

We are actually 6 games back of Cleveland now. They also clinched the season tie break tonight, too. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up 9-10 games back and 5 games or so under .500 now. Especially with 4 more against Cleveland with the finality setting in and 6 against the White Sox after it has settled. Won’t even be surprised to see them tank against KC, LAA, and Detroit now. 

[AceWrigley]

Well, we literally threw that game away.

[Rosterman]

Okay, got a double-header tomorrow. Can pretty much use any of these guys in at least one of the games.

But, Sanchez and Pagan? What are they, chopped liver? Not travelling with the team? During the Royals series they were watching games in St. Paul?

Hell, with a 3-run led I would HAVE TRIED Pagan (on a very short leash).

Yes, Thiebar got a bad error. But, forgive me, I love Jax...but he seems to have problems with runners on base (i.e. see the dreaded 10th inning with a runner on second). This is where you pitch Duran to get you out of the inning (if he would stop bouncing the ball).

Moran was up and throwing at one point when Ober was still on the mound.

I'm waiting to see the s*&tstorm of pitcher usage in tomorrow's double-header...especially if we have a couple of rookies pitch like there is no tomorrow (as Ober happily did today). 

The Twins had this game...and the guys they threw up a the plate in the 9th were......wait, where's Garlick? Oh, IL-list. I guess Kepler isn't worthy of being a pinch-hitter....

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

What spreadsheet decision lost the game today? The back end of the bullpen lost the game, in baseball that's sometimes going to happen even when Jax/Thielbar/Duran were pitching well up to this point. And spreadsheet or not, the lineup is decimated by injuries.

I agree with the statement. Over used pen. Under valued starters. Yes there were errors but the biggest one was management of pitchers. 

[mikelink45]

Where is KC when you need them?  

[milkytoast]

The bullpen is taxed after yesterday and we have a double header tomorrow, and you pull Ober, who is absolutely cruising, after 70 pitches????????

 

Even if they won this game they would be screwed for the double header. I can't even anymore. 

[mikelink45]

Cleveland starter 7 innings only 2 RP needed it

[gunnarthor]

That was a rough loss. Still, four more games can turn things around. Hope Springs Eternal!

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The White Sox lost tonight because they made an error in a critical situation. The Twins lost with the Gordon error and Sanchez not going back to the screen and then looking for the ball after it got past him. Urshela and Miranda are covering ricochets up either line because you cannot give up two bases on that play which is why it is so rare. Cleveland makes the play to end the game on a slow roller. Can't win if you can't make the plays.

Fundamentals - mistakes. Both by our players and manager.  
 

It’s our Achilles Heel. Has been, and always will be, under Rocco.  And we will never win unless we are better at the fundamentals than the other teams. It’s not rocket science. Why can’t our ownership see that? 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Danchat said:

What spreadsheet decision lost the game today? The back end of the bullpen lost the game, in baseball that's sometimes going to happen even when Jax/Thielbar/Duran were pitching well up to this point. And spreadsheet or not, the lineup is decimated by injuries.

Perhaps you're not aware of this, but Rocco Baldelli has a binder of printed spreadsheets created by FedEx Office before every game delivered to the dugout. The paper is harvested from illegally poached, rare California Redwoods because the paper they create is also water resistant from his sweaty palms and fingers. It takes 2 - 50 foot tall redwoods to make one binder because Rocco rejects most of the wood he inspects, and if he suspects his secret harvesting location has been compromised, he lights another "wildfire" to cover it up. Baldelli's printed spreadsheets are the biggest cause of California's de-forestation problems.

It's also why most of the pitchers take so long. Rocco literally has to flip through hundreds of pages to see what pitch to throw and where to throw it at what count, then relay it with hand signs to the catcher who relays it to the pitcher.

[bean5302]

That was a damn tough call on Gordon getting an error there. Running away from first to field the ball, pivoting 120*, throwing off balance while still running and the throw didn't beat the runner anyway. When the ball hits the glove at 1B, the runner's foot was on the bag already as shown in the image. Not a routine play. I would have scored it an infield hit.

[TopTwinsFan]

4 hours ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

Nothing more to say about this joke called Rocco than I've seen all I've ever needed to see of him.  And I'll say it for the thousandth time... THIS TEAM WILL NEVER SUCCEED WITH ROCCO AND THE SPREADSHEET.  NEVER.  

Never. If we have a great season next year his poor game management will doom us. Such a frustrating season. Out managed and out smarted by the Guardians. Pathetic.

Hope the Twins dont sacrifice our future with him. He has had his chance. Congrats on that 100+ win season. Lets find a coach who can win us a next playoff game. Hell, win us a playoff series for the first time in over 20 years.

Teams take on the personality of their coach. This team underperforms, doesnt trust one another and chokes.

I have never seen a more disappointing Twins team in 35 years of being a fan. 

?

[TopTwinsFan]

2 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

 

I love the way Francona substituted that pinch runner in the bottom of the 8th.

Instead of putting in the pinch runner right away after the lead off batter reaches first, like lots of managers do automatically, wait another batter or two to see what happens. If the next batter hits into a double play, you just lost the substitution and lost your batter with nothing to show for it. Also possible is a bunch of strikeouts or fly outs, and the pinch runner never makes it around the bases. Sure, that might have been a bunting situation 10-20 years ago too, but times are changing as are the players.

Obviously situations are going to be different, but that was very well done by Francona. And it won them the game.

Imagine having a manager that wins your 5-8 extra games a year with his brilliant management.

Our reality: Losing 5-`10 extra games this year, probably more when you consider the horrendous lineup decisions with a very poor game manager.

Heartbreaking. Cant win with a leader who is in over his head,

Baldelli clearly is not the man for the job.

Is Falvey? starting to think he may not be.

[TopTwinsFan]

Kinda tuning out now guys cuz exhibition baseball doesnt do much for me. The writing has been on the wall since the Twins epic choke against the Guardians in the summer. Baldi ball at its worse. Time to recognize its over. All the best to every Twins fan. Remember those of us who dont want Baldi back dont want him fired because we dont like him. We want him fired because we want to win another World Series and I promise you he will never get us anywhere near that level. He simply doesnt get the most from his players. 

[h2oface]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

That was a damn tough call on Gordon getting an error there. Running away from first to field the ball, pivoting 120*, throwing off balance while still running and the throw didn't beat the runner anyway. When the ball hits the glove at 1B, the runner's foot was on the bag already as shown in the image. Not a routine play. I would have scored it an infield hit.

Totally disagree. This pic does not represent the play well, or a throw that was on line and lower that would not have been in error. But they took the video down of the play now, and edited it out of the summary as it was edited down from 3+ minutes to 1+. They were both there earlier. (Or at least I can’t find it now, but had watched it several times earlier.) Far too many errors are called hits these days, in my opinion. Charity workers for batters and fielders and the pitchers get the fallout of shoddy defense ignored in their line. In fact, I was surprised Gordon didn’t get a gift. It doesn’t matter though. I am sure you have made your decision, anyway, and you have that right.

[wabene]

6 hours ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

Nothing more to say about this joke called Rocco than I've seen all I've ever needed to see of him.  And I'll say it for the thousandth time... THIS TEAM WILL NEVER SUCCEED WITH ROCCO AND THE SPREADSHEET.  NEVER.  

You mean never succeed again?