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Week in Review: Death Spiral


Nick Nelson

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Undermanned and clearly unequipped for the season-defining challenge ahead of them last week, the Minnesota Twins shrunk in the moment, watching their postseason hopes wilt nearly into nothingness. 

There will be plenty of time ahead for broader postmortem analysis of a team fading into irrelevance just in time for fans to turn their attention to football. For the purposes of this column, we'll stay centered on the past seven days and what to take away.

Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/5 through Sun, 9/11
***
Record Last Week: 1-6 (Overall: 69-70)
Run Differential Last Week: -15 (Overall: +13)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (4.5 GB)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 133 | NYY 5, MIN 2: Homers from Marwin, Judge Sink Twins
Game 134 | NYY 5, MIN 4: Offense Stymied by Yankees Bullpen
Game 135 | NYY 7, MIN 1: Nothing Left in the Tank for the Nightcap
Game 136 | MIN 4, NYY 3: Twins Finally Scrape Out a Win in NYC
Game 137 | CLE 7, MIN 6: Late Rally Can't Overcome Bad Bundy
Game 138 | CLE 6, MIN 4: Another Early Hole Proves Too Deep
Game 139 | CLE 4, MIN 1: Overmatched Twins Go Quietly in Sweep

NEWS & NOTES

A week ago the Twins found themselves precariously perched atop the division. "While they're still tied for first out of sheer circumstance" I wrote in the lede, "this team is not in a good place."

Boy, that was putting it mildly. Seven long days later, the Twins are now below .500 and buried in third place. Their chances of making the postseason, according to FiveThirtyEight, have sunk to 8 percent.

Sigh.

The past week saw a lot of roster movement on the pitching staff, with the usual drumbeat of churn and burn remaining steady here as the end draws near. A quick rundown:

  • Cole Sands was activated from his injured list stint on Thursday, supplanting Austin Davis from the roster. In fact, Davis was designated for assignment, one day after giving up three runs on four walks in one inning against the Yankees. Another brilliant waiver pickup by this front office.
  • Speaking of waiver pickups, right-hander Jake Jewell – claimed from Cleveland in mid-August – was outrighted from the 40-man roster. He never got a chance with the Twins.
  • STILL speaking of waiver pickups, Jharel Cotton will likely get another chance with the Twins, having been re-added to the 40-man and active rosters. Minnesota needed the additional pitching depth with Chris Archer landing on the IL due to pectoral tightness that forced him out of Saturday's game. 

In slightly positive news, the Twins did get Josh Winder back following his time spent on the IL, rehabbing, and then at Triple-A. He gave up a couple of solo homers but mostly looked solid in his return to action. Sands was optioned to make room for Winder.

HIGHLIGHTS

Louie Varland, take a bow.

The reigning Twins minor league pitcher of the year was called upon for his big-league debut in the toughest of circumstances on Wednesday: at Yankee Stadium, against an eternal franchise tormentor, in the midst of a tight pennant race. Despite the immense pressure, Varland came through in flying colors, allowing just one run through five innings before being pulled midway through the sixth.

The runner he left behind scored on a home run off Griffin Jax, so Varland finished with this nevertheless brilliant line: 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K. He returned to the minors later that day, having been called up as a 29th man for the doubleheader, but we'll presumably see the right-hander again soon.

Varland's arrival will go down as a signature moment in this season, but likely one that came too little and too late from a team contention perspective. The same can be said about Carlos Correa emerging at last with the game-changing clutch hits we've all been waiting for. 

The shortstop was instrumental in securing a single victory at Yankee Stadium, with his two-out, two-run homer in the eighth inning on Thursday proving to make the difference in a 4-3 win. The following night, Correa went 4-for-5 with four RBIs in trying (futilely) to will the team past Cleveland.

Sadly, because Correa's teammates have done so little to support the cause, his September heroics will likely end up doing more to stoke his impending free agent market than thrust the Twins back into contention.

LOWLIGHTS

If the previous weekend's 13-0 dismantling in Chicago was the lowlight of the entire season – and I'd argue it was – Tuesday's tragic mess in New York has to be a close runner-up. 

Despite getting a brilliant start from Varland in his debut, and taking a 3-0 early lead, and throwing all of their best relievers, and having endless opportunities to break the game open ... the Twins fell in 12 innings. Their absolute lack of fortitude was as glaring as it has been all year. 

It really felt like the Yankees didn't even care much to win the game, trotting out a backup-filled lineup and lower-caliber arms, while the Twins were furiously throwing everything they had – their six best relievers, pinch-runners, pinch-hitters – and still they couldn't find a way to squeak it out.

Max Kepler, who struck out looking as a pinch-hitter with two outs and two on in the eighth that night, has been completely ineffective for several months, and it snowballed last week as he battled through a hip injury that ultimately shut him down on Sunday. Kepler struck out in two of his three pinch-hit appearances and popped out behind the plate in another. On Saturday he hit cleanup and went 0-for-5.

With their season rapidly slipping away and so many key fixtures sidelined, the Twins have been desperate for Kepler to step up – left with no choice but to write him into the middle of their decimated lineup against right-handed pitchers. Kepler has done the opposite of answering the call, with the worst WPA on the team since August 1st. It's not lost on me that he's been playing through things physically, but those excuses feel empty for a player whose unwavering, deeply flawed approach keeps him endlessly bound to mediocrity, while those around him grow and progress. 

Maybe the new rules limiting defensive shifts in 2023 will prove to be a salve for Kepler's long-stagnating game. To be honest I'm not super interested in finding out. 

Kepler contributed to a roundly horrible performance from the Twins' beleaguered outfield in another sparse offensive week that saw the club score more than four runs just once in seven games:

  • Kyle Garlick, also playing through pain while being forced into more action against righties than anyone would like, went 3-for-24 with 11 strikeouts. Zero walks, zero extra-base hits, zero RBIs. Like Kepler, he probably shouldn't even be on the field.
  • Jake Cave's moment as catalyst and hype man proved short-lived. He managed a double and two singles in 23 at-bats.
  • Gilbert Celestino produced four singles in 19 at-bats. His OPS has cratered to a season-low .623 as he's ceased to present any kind of meaningful threat at the plate. In an ideal world he'd be learning how to hit in Triple-A.

With the exception of Varland, pitching was really no better over the past week, surrendering 37 runs and 13 homers in seven games. You of course had the expected lapses from Dylan Bundy (4.2 IP, 7 ER vs. CLE) and Archer (2 ER allowed in 2 IP before exiting Saturday's game). Other struggles were more concerning – like those of Jorge López, continuing to exhibit shaky confidence and command ever since being acquired, as well as the rookie starter they hoped to entrench as a rotation cornerstone.

Almost every time he faces a lineup with power, we're reminded why the prospect of Joe Ryan starting a playoff game is so foreboding. That's becoming less of an immediate concern, but still, the Twins will be positioned to depend heavily on Ryan again in 2023, with Tyler Mahle in total limbo, Chris Paddack rehabbing into the season, and Kenta Maeda returning from a lost season at age 35. 

Wednesday night's game typified the new norm for Ryan, who nibbled around the zone and issued four walks before (former Twin!) Isiah Kiner-Falefa – owner of a .328 slugging percentage coming into the game – delivered a back-breaking grand slam in the fourth inning on a first pitch that must've looked like a beach ball. 

After looking so cool, collected, and in control early on, Ryan now seems to be on the defensive more often than not, trying keep hitters off his low-90s fastball with secondary stuff that just hasn't been very effective.

In the first two months Ryan posted a 2.28 ERA with three home runs allowed in eight starts (0.6 HR/9). Since the start of June, he has a 5.01 ERA with 17 home runs allowed in 15 starts (1.9 HR/9).

That's a trend that has reflected the team at large: strong front-runners early on, progressively running out of steam to the point where they now barely look competitive against quality opponents. There's technically time left to turn it around, but why would anyone believe?

TRENDING STORYLINE

Trailing by 4 ½ games in the AL Central with 23 left to play, the Twins are mathematically still alive, and they actually have a path to making up rapid ground with 11 games in those remaining 23 against the two teams ahead of them. 

Given the current state of the team, it feels nigh impossible to envision such a turn of fate, but stranger things have happened. For what it's worth, there is still a possibility of the roster getting a bit stronger during these last few weeks. Winder looked decent in his return on Sunday. Bailey Ober rejoining the rotation is imminent after a 66-pitch rehab tune-up at St. Paul on Sunday. 

Jorge Polanco should be back this week. Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers and Byron Buxton are all still ostensibly expected to return before year's end, although time is running out for them to make any kind of meaningful impact. 

LOOKING AHEAD

As poorly as they've played, and as fatal as the past week might've felt to any lingering hopes for the Twins, there's a pretty feasible scenario that gets them back within striking distance in the next eight days: 

  • Twins sweep the Royals at home.
  • Cleveland drops two of three at home against the Angels while the White Sox split a home two-game series against Colorado.
  • White Sox beat Guardians in a makeup game on Thursday.
  • Twins take four of five from Guardians in Cleveland, while White Sox lose two of three in Detroit.

It's a series of events that would leave the division looking like this with a little over two weeks to go:

  • 1st: CWS: 75-71
  • 1st: MIN: 75-71
  • 3rd: CLE: 75-72 (0.5 GB)

This would put the Twins in front of Cleveland and tied with Chicago, still holding six head-to-head matchups against the latter. Of course, you might tell me it's not especially feasible for Minnesota to pull this off, given how they've looked, and I'd agree. But the fact remains that the opportunity is still there. Even if you picture a slightly less rosy scenario, it's not unthinkable the Twins are somehow in the thick of it a week from now. Which is incredible to think about.

TUESDAY, 9/13: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Kris Bubic v. RHP Joe Ryan
WEDNESDAY, 9/14: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Zack Greinke v. RHP Sonny Gray
THURSDAY, 9/15: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Daniel Lynch v. RHP Dylan Bundy
FRIDAY, 9/16: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – TBD v. RHP Shane Bieber
SATURDAY, 9/17 (G1): TWINS @ GUARDIANS – TBD v. LHP Konnor Pilkington
SATURDAY, 9/17 (G2): TWINS @ GUARDIANS – TBD v. TBD
SUNDAY, 9/18: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Cody Morris


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Friday and Saturday look like the defining moments of the season for me.  The two free agent starters the FO selected both came up small when the situation was big.  Bundy allowed 4 runs in the first inning.  Archer made it through 2 innings before succumbing to injury, after five months of light duty for a starter.  I don't question the two pitchers themselves, who I have no doubt worked hard and performed to the best of their abilities and who might have contributed to a championship caliber team in some different role.  The Front Office's judgment, however, I do question.

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I've seen enough. This organization needs to take a hard look at why we're leading the league in missed games because of injury. There's got to be more going on than random chance. We've also got front office problems, managerial problems and assuming Correa leaves, leadership problems on the field. IMHO they need more fire and less blind devotion to algorithms. Go Vikes and Wild!

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Quote

On Saturday he hit cleanup and went 0-for-5.

Batting Kepler 4th, no matter what the situation is a reflection on the team and its decisions.  As painful as this is, I once again applaud your clear and concise summary.

Please answer me these questions:

  1. Why have we not given Wallner a chance to do something in this lineup?
  2. Shouldn't Ober's last rehab have been in Minneapolis?
  3. Is there a trend in picking Lopez and Pagan that might be avoided in the future?
  4. Should we really be expecting Buxton - injured every year, Kiriloff and Larnach injured both years on the club, Lewis injured in unimaginable ways each year, Mahle, Paddock, Maeda, Alcala, Ober, Winder in pitcher's purgatory to be healthy for a full year? 
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14 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Batting Kepler 4th, no matter what the situation is a reflection on the team and its decisions.  As painful as this is, I once again applaud your clear and concise summary.

Please answer me these questions:

  1. Why have we not given Wallner a chance to do something in this lineup?

Kepler has 13 errors in right field in 8 major league seasons.

Wallner has 22 errors in right field in 3 minor league seasons.

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13 minutes ago, RpR said:

Kepler has 13 errors in right field in 8 major league seasons.

Wallner has 22 errors in right field in 3 minor league seasons.

Given the state of the Twins batting order and bench players, Wallner likely represents something of a blind hope for a change in the outcome of the futile at bats we are seeing right now from some of the overmatched Twins players. In other words, Wallner can't be any worse at the plate. He should be seen as strictly a DH though until he has a chance to work  more at being an outfielder. It should be noted that Wallner has improved some this season in the field.

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8 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Given the state of the Twins batting order and bench players, Wallner likely represents something of a blind hope for a change in the outcome of the futile at bats we are seeing right now from some of the overmatched Twins players. In other words, Wallner can't be any worse at the plate. He should be seen as strictly a DH though until he has a chance to work  more at being an outfielder. It should be noted that Wallner has improved some this season in the field.

Well Palacios was brought with good Minor League batting and lousy fielding; now it is lousy batting and fielding in the majors.

Crap shoots for the Twins do not work well.

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59 minutes ago, Mark G said:

This team has enough talent to compete in this division.  The talent isn't being used to the best of their ability.  Until that changes, what you see is what you get.  Enough said.  

Almost all the talent is on the injured list.

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I am intrigued at the scenario presented whereby the Twins could be tied for first by next Monday. I also can't think of any way that is remotely possible. I don't see how Twins can sweep the Royals, as bad as they are, Twins are equally as bad. Angels are awful so how could they win a series against the Guards? Detroit is also awful so taking 2 of 3 from Chisox seems unrealistic. And of course Twins winning 4 of 5 from Cleveland is a pipe dream right now, unless something seismic happens to the Twins lineup and pitching.  But--it did demonstrate the math that says it isn't over until Yogi says its over.

Twins won one game last week. Thats hardly a 'playoff push'. Rather its a demo of a team that has run out of fuel. Wish it weren't so.

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12 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Almost all the talent is on the injured list.

I really really hope the Twins, from top down, critically examine their entire medical protocol.

It's ridiculous, the amount of injury and time missed despite fewer and fewer demands on players. 

Playing every day used to be the expectation, and if a players level of play warranted it, pretty much standard practice. 

Whatever they're doing, it ain't working.

I'd suggest trying what used to work. Starting in the minors, you play every day, unless you're on the IL. Starting pitchers take every rotation turn with the expectation of going at least 7. More if things are going well. 

Analytics aren't worth **** if you're not willing to admit they show a need for change.

 

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Unless both Chicago and Cleveland decide to play down to their competition, there is no way the Twins are close to first a week from now.  The Twins have to hope to sweep Cleveland next week and win almost all their upcoming games against Chicago to have a chance (and win some games against the bottom feeders they will be playing in between).

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Would look like Ober, WInder and Varland pitching against Cleveland. Question is how do they shuffle in Ober (probably for Sanchez after he gets another use in the Bundy start). Varland would be the doubleheader add.

The outfield is...pathetic. When Polanco comes back we can see...The Return of Gordon! And, if Kepler is laid up, let's just bring up Wallner...over Contreras (sorry, Mark).

 

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1 hour ago, Mark G said:

Not hardly!

Apparently you weren’t at the game today like I was, watching an outfield of Cave/Celestino/Garlick. The Twins had to field that group because injuries have sidelined Buxton, Kepler, Kiriloff, Larnach, and Contreras. All higher options on the depth chart than the players that were actually playing.

The infield is missing Polanco, Sano, Lewis and Jeffers. 

That’s without even mentioning the many pitching injuries that have gutted the starting and relief corps.

The team is broken. They are cooked. They are severely injured. I feel it’s disingenuous to claim otherwise.

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This article twice characterized Wnder looking good today. I disagree. He was getting hit hard and managed to take advantage of some nice breaks. Glad he got through it, but I don’t think many of us there today felt confident with the frequent hard contact he was allowing. 

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All that's left to do is wait for the inevitable announcement of Mahler and Buxton's "Surgery/Procedure To Be Named Later"

Nick.... your proposed pathway to being tied for the division lead is essentially 'showing the work' for Five-Thirty-Eight's estimated 8% chance of winning the division ?

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As unlikely as making the playoffs are, I have to wonder why we would even want to.  We’d either get the Rays and their all-around competence, the imposing lineup of the Blue Jays, or the Mariners who will trot out Castillo, Ray, and Gilbert.  Any ways you cut out, no way this team takes 2 of 3 against any of those teams.

Now is the time to see who can be helpful for next year.  Archer should be shut down for the year, Bundy should be released, Pagan DFA’d, etc.  Bring up SWR and Wallet at minimum, and then anyone else with a pulse across the river.

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6 hours ago, RpR said:

Kepler has 13 errors in right field in 8 major league seasons.

Wallner has 22 errors in right field in 3 minor league seasons.

This. For all his poor judgment at the plate and the holes in his swing, Kepler's defense is consistently top class. At age 29, with a year left on his contract plus an option year, Kepler has about 80 games left to prove his value before the club starts to look elsewhere...

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6 hours ago, PopRiveter said:

Apparently you weren’t at the game today like I was, watching an outfield of Cave/Celestino/Garlick. The Twins had to field that group because injuries have sidelined Buxton, Kepler, Kiriloff, Larnach, and Contreras. All higher options on the depth chart than the players that were actually playing.

The infield is missing Polanco, Sano, Lewis and Jeffers. 

That’s without even mentioning the many pitching injuries that have gutted the starting and relief corps.

The team is broken. They are cooked. They are severely injured. I feel it’s disingenuous to claim otherwise.

You're right, many of the players currently playing day to day are AAA level at best. 

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10 hours ago, Mark G said:

This team has enough talent to compete in this division.  The talent isn't being used to the best of their ability.  Until that changes, what you see is what you get.  Enough said.  

I agree , but nick  did write a very good season article , even if it is the death spiral  ...

I was encouraged by it , but I don't think we have a prayer  ....

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7 hours ago, PopRiveter said:

The team is broken. They are cooked. They are severely injured. I feel it’s disingenuous to claim otherwise

Fan is short for fanatic. As irrational as it seems, I tend to maintain hope until  the team is mathematically eliminated.

But the more realistic side of me quoted  you for a reason. Sadly, I know you are right. The Twins just don't have the horses to compete.

 

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10 hours ago, RpR said:

Kepler has 13 errors in right field in 8 major league seasons.

Wallner has 22 errors in right field in 3 minor league seasons.

13/8 = 1.62 

162/1.62 = 1 error every 100 games

22/3 = 7.33

162/7.33 = 1 error every 22 games

While you wait 22 games for that Wallner error to occur.

Max Kepler is hitting .227 while slugging .348

Jake Cave is starting in CF

Kyle Garlick hasn't been allowed to hit righthanders for 4 years

Gilberto Celestino... during a pennant chase... can't remember how many outs there are despite being one of the rare baserunners that the team produced during an awful offensive stretch... not to mention Celestino somehow has a lower OPS than Kepler, which is hard to do.  

Wallner is 24.7 years old.

Wallner will need to be added to the 40 man in December

The law firm of Hamilton, Hamilton and Palacios are on the 26 man roster and none of them are playing during a time when we are desperate for ANYONE to PLAY DECENTLY. 

Obviously we have 26 man space plus 40 man space.

AND... AND... It is important to note that they were just swept by a team featuring 7 rookie hitters out of 14 hitters on the roster.

In conclusion... Defense better not be the reason. 

 

 

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I hope your right on saying twins/sox tied with 75-71. It can happen but don’t think it will. We just don’t have the horses to compete anymore-injuries did us in. Let’s see what happens this week before we write off twins. Need to sweep KC/take 4 of 5 from Cleveland with help from other teams. If not time to look in mirror and be ready for 2023

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