Is Carlos Correa Really Going to Get Paid?

[RpR]

Is there a chart for Minor leaguers that shows like Baseball Ref. a AA or AAA players defense ability?

[Otto von Ballpark]

5 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I’m still going to watch every game and cheer for the Twins 

Only because you were unable to negotiate an opt-out in your fan contract.

[Reptevia]

I think he would be a fool to opt out.  No one will give him $35M AAV. 

[terrydactyls]

19 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Considering the alck of free-agent talent that will come and play in Minnesota, the Twins can afford Correa for another season.

Also, Lewis won't be ready right away.

Be interesting to see how Austin Martin progresses next season and if Brooks Lee is for real.

Whether or not the Twins can afford Correa for another season is immaterial.  The decision is Correa's, not the Twins.

[saviking]

22 hours ago, SanoMustGo said:

I was all in when he signed, but I am now not sure he is worth 35 million per year.  I would think the Twins could use that money(and after the Sano buyout) to fill some other holes.  It leaves a hole at SS, but frankly he hasn't earned that money in my book this season.

I agree 100%. The money can be spent better somewhere else. Unfortunately Correa has done nothing to increase his value this year. Yes, he could take the 36 mill for two more years but by then I think his value might plummet.  

2024 is his best shot as there won't be many quality shortstops coming out so I expect Correa to play for the Twins one more year and hope he has a banner year. I think that's the message he is sending out right now.

To be honest, I'm glad we only have him signed for 3 years. I would assume his agent is feeling the waters right now to judge interest. But for us, it's not about whether Correa winds up with a great long term deal. It's simply, does he opt out or not. If he does we are off the hook, ala, Donaldson and if things don't go well, maybe he will come back on a club friendly one year deal ..

[DJL44]

Correa's offensive rate stats look pretty good. He's missed 20 games due to a bruised finger and COVID. His defensive numbers have not been as impressive but I wonder how much of that is the Twins defensive positioning versus where the Astros positioned him.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Correa's offensive rate stats look pretty good. He's missed 20 games due to a bruised finger and COVID. His defensive numbers have not been as impressive but I wonder how much of that is the Twins defensive positioning versus where the Astros positioned him.

DITTO.

[RpR]

4 hours ago, saviking said:

 

2024 is his best shot as there won't be many quality shortstops coming out so I expect Correa to play for the Twins one more year and hope he has a banner year. I think that's the message he is sending out right now.

 

So many posters say this or some thing similar; are you guy gazing into the Magic 8 ball, that you know what is in aother person's mind?

[LewFordLives]

There really is no reason for him NOT to opt out.  If it turns out like last year and he and Boras are left without a chair once the music stops, then what's the worst that can happen?  They can go sign another short-term make-good contract. Ok, so maybe it's only $30M instead of $35M. So what.  They could even circle back to the Twins, who have no one else ready to play SS.

[jjswol]

Not at all convinced he is going to opt out.

[Cap'n Piranha]

21 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Correa was obtained on the FA market so the ratio is relevant. 

I get a chuckle out of these quick math arguments when we all know teams aren't filling out their active rosters with 26 guys earning market value. 

It's only relevant in determining if the Twins overpaid on the already inflated cost.  As it turns out, unless Correa makes it to 4.4ish WAR, the Twins will have overpaid twice.  There are a handful of teams that can afford to do that: the Twins cannot.

Of course no roster is filled out with guys whose rank by salary and rank by WAR are identical.  But that's not the point that I, or anyone else saying similar things, is making.  The point we are making is that when you are the Twins, and you start handing out late-stage arbitration or FA deals/extensions, the production from rookie-scale or early-stage arbitration players is going to have to increase.  Correa, Sanchez, and Kepler are making $51.1M this year; they've accounted for 5.1 WAR (on pace for about 7), leaving the rest of the roster to make $92M while needing to produce 35 WAR.  That puts a lot of pressure on 23 players to either produce like all-stars, or be (relatively) low paid.  Do you see the problem here?

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

It's only relevant in determining if the Twins overpaid on the already inflated cost.  As it turns out, unless Correa makes it to 4.4ish WAR, the Twins will have overpaid twice.  There are a handful of teams that can afford to do that: the Twins cannot.

Of course no roster is filled out with guys whose rank by salary and rank by WAR are identical.  But that's not the point that I, or anyone else saying similar things, is making.  The point we are making is that when you are the Twins, and you start handing out late-stage arbitration or FA deals/extensions, the production from rookie-scale or early-stage arbitration players is going to have to increase.  Correa, Sanchez, and Kepler are making $51.1M this year; they've accounted for 5.1 WAR (on pace for about 7), leaving the rest of the roster to make $92M while needing to produce 35 WAR.  That puts a lot of pressure on 23 players to either produce like all-stars, or be (relatively) low paid.  Do you see the problem here?

Overpaid and inflated in comparison to what? The Twins started this year with a payroll $10M less than last year, it's clear they're not committing significant money to pitching, and they've got a lineup that's almost exclusively young/cheap/on team friendly deals, so what exactly about the Correa signing isn't viable for them?

Conversely Arraez, Polanco, and Miranda cost roughly $8M combined and have been worth 6+ WAR and counting. Half of the Twins top WAR producers aren't even arb eligible, 3 of the remaining 5 are on the aforementioned team friendly deals, Sanchez is gone after this year, which leaves only Correa if he inexplicably decides to stay. You see my point about why it's silly to paper a FA dollars to WAR ratio across an entire roster when we know things are more fluid than that right?

[Thegrin]

1. I love watching Correa play defense.   His mistakes are so rare that they stand out.  He makes so many good throws that we just take for granted.  This can give some fans a distorted idea of Correa's value.
2. Can anybody remember the Twins having a SS of his quality?  Smalley? Gagne?:  They were good but not near as good as Correa.
3. Enjoy him while he is here.  However long that may be. 

 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Thegrin said:

1. I love watching Correa play defense.   His mistakes are so rare that they stand out.  He makes so many good throws that we just take for granted.  This can give some fans a distorted idea of Correa's value.
2. Can anybody remember the Twins having a SS of his quality?  Smalley? Gagne?:  They were good but not near as good as Correa.
3. Enjoy him while he is here.  However long that may be. 

 

Simmons was just as good,  a bit better fielding the hard plays, but Correa's bat is much better.

[Squirrel]

On 8/24/2022 at 10:45 PM, Reptevia said:

I think he would be a fool to opt out.  No one will give him $35M AAV. 

But someone might give him $20-25million AAV for 6 years or more. Guaranteed money. And that is way better than $35million for 2 years.

[Reptevia]

It’s very possible, even likely that he can get that same contract in 2 years. $70m birds in the hand. 

[SwainZag]

19 hours ago, Squirrel said:

But someone might give him $20-25million AAV for 6 years or more. Guaranteed money. And that is way better than $35million for 2 years.

If he opts out of the final 2 years, I offer 7 years - $200M.

2023 - $35M, 2024 - $35M, 2025 - $26M, 2026 - $26M, 2027 - $26M 2028 - $26M w/player opt out, 2029 - $26M w/player opt out.

Contract would still give him the original $70M for the two opt out years, but would be adding a 5 year - $130M extension on with 2 opt out years at the end of the deal.  Realistically there might be more lucrative offers out there, but I would imagine it would be somewhere in the ballpark.

With the current year, total contract with Twins would be 8 years, $235M which comes out to $29.375 AAV.  It's about $3M a year short of what Seager got last year.  You could always tack on some incentives to up the ante.