Did the Twins Plan to Fail this Offseason?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Sometimes you fail to plan, which is not what the Minnesota Twins did this offseason. Sometimes you plan to fail, which certainly could be what the Minnesota Twins did this offseason.

Entering the trade deadline period, Minnesota needed to address pitching in both the starting rotation and the bullpen. They also found themselves in the market for catching help, although that was more by circumstance rather than a reflection of their own decisions. No matter what way you look at it, the 26-man roster needed something like four or five additions to truly be considered supplemented. How does that reflect what took place this winter?

Every team in baseball has an ample amount of opportunity to spend money. While some organizations are better off than others due to desirability or revenues, no front office bill will ever scratch the surface of what an ownership group can truly afford. On that end, I was told by a front office source during this season that the desire to hit $150 million from a payroll perspective is something that will not likely be touched. That could change as economic standards adjust, but in the foreseeable future, Minnesota will not reach that threshold for an Opening Day roster.

Per Spotrac, Minnesota’s current payroll sits at $138 million for the season, or roughly $10 million below what is seen as a non-starting amount. In getting there, they paid handsomely for Carlos Correa ($35.1 million) and brought in Gary Sanchez to replace Mitch Garver. Sonny Gray commands $10.6 million and was acquired for a prospect that the Twins handed a $2.5 million bonus just a year prior. Up against where ownership has given the front office somewhat of a line, that meant value plays had to pan out.

The front office gambled on a bullpen largely reflective of their own development. Even without considering the Taylor Rogers trade, that meant big innings would be needed from Jhoan Duran (who was not seen as a lock going into Spring Training), Tyler Duffey, and Caleb Thielbar. The only addition to the relief corps was Joe Smith, a 38-year-old veteran with no velocity making just $2.5 million.

On the starting front, behind Gray, it was all bargain bin additions. Dylan Bundy was a bounce-back candidate at $4 million, and Chris Archer was inked to an incentive-laden deal that starts at just $2.75 million. In and of themselves, neither pitcher has been the issue, while both have provided plenty of issues for Rocco Baldelli as a whole.

Smartly, the skipper has tried to avoid having any of his back-three pitchers in the rotation see a lineup for the third time. Archer and Bundy have both been bludgeoned as games have gone on, and that’s made for significant bullpen workloads. On the flip side, a taxed relief unit that has largely underperformed has given a constant chicken-or-the-egg situation to navigate through. This all goes back to the situation Minnesota now finds themselves in, and if the plan originally dictated by ownership, was worth it.

The front office has to play within the parameters of the budget given to them. That’s always going to present a value proposition scenario in which you attempt to acquire the most amount of return for the least amount of money. Bundy and Archer are a perfect representation of that; so too is Joe Smith. The significant surplus was applied to Correa, but then it was deemed that the well had been tapped.

Say the Twins' front office could’ve been given another $10 million during the winter, does that change the level of starting arms they target looking to take work off the plate of the bullpen? Could they have added another reliever or two and passed on Smith being the only reinforcement? Adding at the deadline is a tricky scenario in that you’re likely bringing on more money anyways, and vying with multiple suitors all attempting to acquire the same available talent.

I certainly don’t think there’s an argument to be made that the Twins front office failed to plan this year. They didn’t want the slew of injuries, but no one does. If they failed to plan, it was in that the constraints presented by ownership, and maybe not pushed back on by the front office, left them a couple of pieces short to start, and even more when the season drew on.

There’s probably never an amount that represents enough spending in the eyes of fans, and that’s really not a fair place to operate a budget from. Considering the actual acquisitions, however, squeezing value from all but the big one clearly didn’t provide enough of an opportunity to withstand the rigors of a long season.

 

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[mikelink45]

The signing of Correa says that they did not want to lose this season, but the quality of pitching that we add and subtract each year has us all shaking our heads.  What did they expect and didn't Happ and Shoemaker prove that retreads don't work out.  Now we have Sanchez and while trades have been going all around the league we have been adding free agent arms to our minors.  If they are free agents now it is because no one wanted them.  Time for a FO correction - they are typically late in the free agent and trade market, but this year the quality is moving fast so I am just waiting to be amazed. 

[Loosey]

I disagree with a lot of this article.  They signed Correa so they planned to win.  Also, Correa was signed very late if I recall, so they were at a payroll of just over $100M when he signed.  So Correa didn't eat into the budget, they had money to spend and were not getting the guys they were after, weren't targeting them or some other reason.  Planning to fail was not the their plan.

[RJA]

Generally, I think it is a mistake to trade high end prospects for deadline acquisitions as you are eating your young, and unless you have an incredible farm system, that catches up with you.  But, if it is a year when you have an opportunity to make noise in the postseason, it makes sense.  I am not sure it makes sense this year precisely for the reasons you note.  The FO sat on their hands during free agency while the Rays, Rodons, and Gausmans went elsewhere.   Instead they traded for Gray--a good move in my opinion--and Paddack--a risky move given his injury history--hoping that they would allow them to contend.  They were expecting/hoping that one of the young guys like Winder, Balazovic, or Canterino would make the jump.  They were trying to be Cleveland.  It didn't work.  Besides, Cleveland develops pitchers and trades them as established starters for prospects.  Now, they are stuck with a roster that needs major additions to have any hope of contending in the postseason.  At this point, the future of the Twins depends on this front office developing their pitching pipeline.  They are trying, but if they can't do that, then the only option is to go to free agency, and as you note, it is very unlikely the Twins would do that.  So far, most of their best pitching prospects--Winder, Balazovic, Canterino, and others have either underpeformed, been injured, or both.  This offseason, they better find a way to solidify their pitching, or they will probably be in the same or a worse situation at this time next year.  It would be a shame to waste the best years of Buxton, Polanco and Arraez waiting for a first rate pitching staff.  Maybe I am just feeling a bit pessimistic, and next year Winder, Canterino, Balazovic, Povich and others will be injury free and moving into prominent roles with the Twins.  If that is the case, I will have my crow medium rare, please.

[HrbieFan]

Another click bait article by Ted. Dude must be a MN native with his negativity.  Should just leave it alone, but I hate the negative nellies, especially writers.

Twins went after the As pitchers, but didn't want to give up or didn't have the prospects to match. They went after multiple SPs in FA, but were outbid. They gained flexibility by trading Donaldson and didn't sit on the money. Who are they trading to get Castillo or Montas? We don't have the arms in our minors, unless you dip into A ball. 

[cHawk]

If they 'planned to fail,' then that's infuriating. That is calling blatant tanking.

More likely they 'didn't plan well'. They expected the farm system to fill in holes on the big-league roster, which is a bit ambitious.

[JoeCool]

I am ok with the front office philosophy from this past offseason in comparison to what we were getting before.

They avoided the burden of large unproductive contracts hurting the franchise for years. If Buxton performs he gets paid. If not he gets paid less.  Correa at a short term deal was also very smart. He is a fantastic player but not really worth $35 million. For 1 to 3 years that is not as bad as 10 years and no production at the end. 
 

They have some good pieces to build around and have payroll flexibility to get more if needed. I for one would be really excited if we went all in on some mid level prospects to get a rental like Devers from Boston. Contreras also would be fun to see as a Twin. 
 

With pitching we have some prospect nice starters we can convert to relievers in the short term. I would love to see us use these assets on the bullpen and get one more starter but I think separate of Pablo Lopez there really is nothing worth going after with higher end prospects.  

If we bring in Hendrix from the Cubs, Lopez from the Fish and got some more consistent bats in Devers and Contreras for the middle of the lineup. We are formidable.  If Buxton or correa are injured they both can help carry the lineup. If they are all healthy at playoff time we should end the postseason drought for winless games.  

I like throwing in some minor league starters with electric stuff as relievers. 
 

 

[wsnydes]

I've mentioned this before, but my pre-season take was that the youth of the organization would determine how far this team goes.  That's still true.  I don't think that they intended to be leading the division for most of the year to this point.  I think they tried to keep the valley as shallow as possible and worked to set up a good run next year, but I don't think they planned on being as competitive as they have this season.  The Correa signing was a win/win in any situation.  They needed a SS, potentially for just one season.  They signed him to a deal that I don't think anyone seriously sees playing out to completion.  The Lewis injury complicates that considerably.  But the way the staff was built does not scream WS title contender at all.  Injuries have decimated that plan in my view, but it wasn't set up to do a lot of damage in the first place.  Partly due to injury, partly due to ineffectiveness, I don't think the pitching evolved they way that had hoped.

With all of that, you have this strange dichotomy of an absolutely brutal division that leads to a pretty average team leading the division for 4 months to this point.  So they've put themselves in a situation where they find themselves on the doorstep of a divisional title, an IL full of trade chips and guys that they'd hoped to contribute now, and in serious need of pitching help.  I'm not sure that they completely failed, I just don't think the season has played out in a way that they saw it unfolding.  The injuries this team has suffered the last couple of seasons is astounding and has impacted organizational depth, but they haven't really had many, if any, minor league players jump up and fill a void when needed either.

[baul0010]

45 minutes ago, Loosey said:

I disagree with a lot of this article.  They signed Correa so they planned to win.  Also, Correa was signed very late if I recall, so they were at a payroll of just over $100M when he signed.  So Correa didn't eat into the budget, they had money to spend and were not getting the guys they were after, weren't targeting them or some other reason.  Planning to fail was not the their plan.

I am not so sure.  I think Correa fell into their laps.  I feel like Boras came to them, not the other way around.  After it was presented, then they had to have the mass sell off to fit Correa and still be under budget.  

Like the article stated, we are under budget, we should add a couple higher salary relievers non contenders may just want off their books.  It's starting to look like that will be our only option.

Here's hoping it's not.

 

[Eris]

While the front offices’ failure to address the bullpen this past off season deserves some criticism, in my view the real problem is the number of pitchers on the injured reserve list. It is hard to plan for this many pitchers being out. Have the Twins been unlucky  or is their pitching philosophy/approach of adding velocity  a key factor in causing these injuries? 

[Tibs]

This article is pointless without any proposed alternatives.

Who were realistic SP or reliever targets the Twins did not sign but should have?

[Whitey333]

Interesting article.  The Twins have been dumpster diving for pitching during the Falvine regime.  That's the way they function.  And the results?  You get what you pay for.  Twins new this past off season they didn't have much of a pitching staff.  The starters were ok early but what you see is what you get.  Except for Ryan and Gray it's a losing crapshoot.  My question has always been with the Correa signing.  Why pay one guy that much money when you know you don't have the pitching to contend.  I kept waiting for more significant moves and signings after Correa.  I figured we would surround him with some other great players.  During the shortened off season all we heard from the FO was that starting pitching was hard to find and too expensive.  Then they sign one player to that much money?  I like him but it seems the FO had no plan.  Maybe they still don't.  So now we have a huge asset in Correa that will likely leave after the season.  We will have nothing to show for it assuming they don't trade him.  Very strange plan to me.  I will admit they have had a ton of injuries.  Way too many and also way too many prospects underperform.  Seems like they are in a tough position.

[MMMordabito]

47 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

Another click bait article by Ted. Dude must be a MN native with his negativity.  Should just leave it alone, but I hate the negative nellies, especially writers.

Twins went after the As pitchers, but didn't want to give up or didn't have the prospects to match. They went after multiple SPs in FA, but were outbid. They gained flexibility by trading Donaldson and didn't sit on the money. Who are they trading to get Castillo or Montas? We don't have the arms in our minors, unless you dip into A ball. 

I don't think you've read many of Ted's articles.  If there is a glass half full, he's drinking from it.  The plan to fail wordsmithing comes across as harsh, but, with the massive youth injection, you expect some failure and hopefully a lot of learning from those failures.

[Karbo]

I agree with Aris. The biggest problem now is the fact that our top prospects seem to get hurt all the time. I do fault the FO for ignoring the bullpen in the off season, though I'm guessing they were planning on some of the prospects (now injured) to help out there. Then factor in the way Rocco handles his staff, and they should have known they would need more help in the pen!

[Mark G]

25 minutes ago, Eris said:

While the front offices’ failure to address the bullpen this past off season deserves some criticism, in my view the real problem is the number of pitchers on the injured reserve list. It is hard to plan for this many pitchers being out. Have the Twins been unlucky  or is their pitching philosophy/approach of adding velocity  a key factor in causing these injuries? 

That is the 64,000 dollar question.  I seem to remember when this group came here they talked about their future vision and pitching was #1 on the list.  They were going to trade for prospects and draft power pitchers, moving away from the pitch to contact previous folks here were developing.  Well, the power pitchers are here, littered through the entire system, and the injuries are littered throughout the entire system as well.  Coincidence?  Bad luck?  Or are young arms not developed enough to produce that much stress with every pitch?  And since we do not stretch out our young players and develop that strength as they mature physically, is it really any wonder they have the injuries they do?  Pitch counts and innings limits are designed to keep the young guys from getting injured from over taxing their arms.  The results appear to speak for themselves, considering we are 5 years in.  All babying our guys has done is turn high school, college, and low pro ball starters into short relievers blowing their arms off on every pitch.  How is that working out for us?  

[goulik]

If there was a failure, it was pre lock out. There were a bunch of Starters and the Twins just were not ready to jump on that market until it was too late. Post lockout, the free agents had been picked over and the front office was scrambling. The preseason was crazy with trades and signings in an attempt to make up for the failure in the fall of 2021. The Correa signing was evidence of their desire to win but it was only because everything else didn’t go as planned and there was an incredible opportunity.

[PatPfund]

Well. A few things.

It's August, and one of the worst teams (the Twins) in the AL last year, a team whose season was already done at this point in 2021 is one of the better teams this year, and is in first place in the division (and has been most of the year). That's a win, not a fail.

Nobody seems to remember that most of the offseason was wasted in the stupid lockout. Our front office, and the rest of MLB's did nothing for months, because they couldn't. Once the stupid lockout ended, no team was more active than the Twins, acquiring the best pitcher in our rotation, inking another who has probably made more starts than any other SP (though really Archer is more of an Opener), churning the closing spot to add an SP and RP, churning the catcher spot to land a SS, then churning the top of the payroll and acquiring arguably the top shortstop in baseball. So definitively NOT planning to fail. Or failing to plan since they had deals ready to roll ASAP.

Can we just stop with the 'Correa fell in our laps' stuff? It just isn't true. The Twins used the Yankee interest in our new shortstop to dump Josh Donaldson's salary AND vacate the SS position precisely to jump into the top of the free agent SS market. Yep, they were targeting Story, but the ONLY reason Boras contacted the Twins is they had already done the work to make a deal with Carlos feasible. Without that work, Boras does not call, and if he did the Twins wouldn't have been able to afford him, and Correa is playing elsewhere.

On the other hand, their pitching plans failed. Bundy pitches with more guts than Happ or Matty Shoe, but not really any more talent. Hard to say how much of last offseason's original plan was shredded by the stupid lockout, but if the Falvines haven't figured out to stop building around washed up castoff arms next year could register in the Fail category. But maybe we should enjoy this year, and not freak about next year until... next year?

[Doctor Gast]

Sometimes I think this FO is like schizophrenic. They told Correa and us that they want to compete and then they turn around and trade away our only proven closer in a pen that has been sub par the last 2yrs. Early in the off season with a rotation of 2 rookies and plans on taking on some weak arms projects which we had started w/ Bundy our only pre lock-out acquitition. With that in mind they proposed the piggy-back phylosophy.  

At 1st I resisted because I wanted them to go after better pitchers but I conceded. I advocated for a long time to establish a strong long relief corp and this would do exactly that. A formula of SP/ 5 innings + long relief/ 3 innings + closer/ 1 inning leaving some room to manuever. Having everything pretty much scheduled out, everyone knows when & where they'll be used well in advance so they can adaquetly prepare. But after Winder was used only 3X in April, long relief was totally abandoned for the year which leaves us in this fiasco of too much stress on SPs and short relief resulting in blown arms and injuries.

They also promised to go after a good pitcher like Montas, but they dragged their feet again in negociations and lost their best chance for him with a lot of healthy prospects. Dead-line trading can be very tricky & expensive (NYY got lucky w/ Montas). There are still some good pitchers out there but it'll be very tricky because we lack some healthy trading pieces.

[bean5302]

I don't think anybody is asking these questions if Carlos Correa didn't somehow fall into the Twins' laps, and I'm very sure the Twins didn't plan on that happening. It changed the entire season plan right then and there. 

The Twins were dealt a situation where they were suddenly, maybe, competitive in what promised to be a much tougher division. I think it sent them scrambling to be creative when so much of the free agent market was already wrapped up. Basically, I don't think the Twins were prepared for this scenario.

[Mark G]

52 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

Well. A few things.

It's August, and one of the worst teams (the Twins) in the AL last year, a team whose season was already done at this point in 2021 is one of the better teams this year, and is in first place in the division (and has been most of the year). That's a win, not a fail.

Nobody seems to remember that most of the offseason was wasted in the stupid lockout. Our front office, and the rest of MLB's did nothing for months, because they couldn't. Once the stupid lockout ended, no team was more active than the Twins, acquiring the best pitcher in our rotation, inking another who has probably made more starts than any other SP (though really Archer is more of an Opener), churning the closing spot to add an SP and RP, churning the catcher spot to land a SS, then churning the top of the payroll and acquiring arguably the top shortstop in baseball. So definitively NOT planning to fail. Or failing to plan since they had deals ready to roll ASAP.

Can we just stop with the 'Correa fell in our laps' stuff? It just isn't true. The Twins used the Yankee interest in our new shortstop to dump Josh Donaldson's salary AND vacate the SS position precisely to jump into the top of the free agent SS market. Yep, they were targeting Story, but the ONLY reason Boras contacted the Twins is they had already done the work to make a deal with Carlos feasible. Without that work, Boras does not call, and if he did the Twins wouldn't have been able to afford him, and Correa is playing elsewhere.

On the other hand, their pitching plans failed. Bundy pitches with more guts than Happ or Matty Shoe, but not really any more talent. Hard to say how much of last offseason's original plan was shredded by the stupid lockout, but if the Falvines haven't figured out to stop building around washed up castoff arms next year could register in the Fail category. But maybe we should enjoy this year, and not freak about next year until... next year?

"Can we just stop with the 'Correa fell in our laps' stuff? It just isn't true. The Twins used the Yankee interest in our new shortstop to dump Josh Donaldson's salary AND vacate the SS position precisely to jump into the top of the free agent SS market. Yep, they were targeting Story, but the ONLY reason Boras contacted the Twins is they had already done the work to make a deal with Carlos feasible. Without that work, Boras does not call, and if he did the Twins wouldn't have been able to afford him, and Correa is playing elsewhere."

Hmmmmm.......interesting take, but I seem to remember Falvine openly admitting that Boras contacted them, saying he had a proposition he believed they would be interested in.  Hence the belief that he "fell into our laps".  Now, we were actively trying to dump JD's contract, and we found a way to do it with NY, but the concept we were doing all of that so we could get Story or Correa, specifically targeting one of them, is,,,,,,,well,.......an interesting take.  Without freeing up JD's contract Boras doesn't call.......hmmmmm........not sure I can buy that one.  But it is an interesting take.    

[Minny505]

2 hours ago, baul0010 said:

I am not so sure.  I think Correa fell into their laps.  I feel like Boras came to them, not the other way around.  After it was presented, then they had to have the mass sell off to fit Correa and still be under budget.  

Like the article stated, we are under budget, we should add a couple higher salary relievers non contenders may just want off their books.  It's starting to look like that will be our only option.

Here's hoping it's not.

 

I suspect they went all the way thru the offseason and into spring training with a retooling year in mind for 2022, with an eye on contending again in 2023. Every single MLB player they acquired in the offseason had team control thru, or team options for, 2023 or beyond. Every one of them (please correct me if I'm wrong). 

I think they expected to see which of the vets could be serviceable, along with getting their AAA talent valuable experience, in preparation for a 2023 run. Not tanking, but not contending.

Then one morning, shortly after spring training began, Falvey woke up to a text from Boras reading, "Correa wants to sign with you on a 1-3 year, high AAV contract. Interested?"

Then expectations for 2022 began to shift for the fans, but the FO did not execute plans to contend up to that point.

And here we are. 

[Morneau for Gov]

My take is that the Lockout was a complete unknown and the Twins took the position that they didn't want to sign contracts going into an unknowable situation. They signed Bundy to a modest contract then when the lockout ended, they unleashed a flurry of moves, but it was probably too late to assemble the roster they really wanted. 

I don't believe they "Planned to Fail". I believe they committed themselves to not get financially burned by a lockout that might potentially ruin the 2022 season. 

[SGL]

8 minutes ago, Morneau for Gov said:

My take is that the Lockout was a complete unknown and the Twins took the position that they didn't want to sign contracts going into an unknowable situation. They signed Bundy to a modest contract then when the lockout ended, they unleashed a flurry of moves, but it was probably too late to assemble the roster they really wanted. 

I don't believe they "Planned to Fail". I believe they committed themselves to not get financially burned by a lockout that might potentially ruin the 2022 season. 

Of course

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

They didn’t want the slew of injuries, but no one does.

No one wants injuries, and every team gets them anyway.

I don't give them a pass, though.  They courted injury, arguably counted on it and thought they had a plan to work around it, presumably as a way to exploit a perceived market inefficiency.

This FO has a reputation for conservatism, as did the last one.  But just as the regime under Terry Ryan at times took on some unaccountable risks (Sano in RF? Tyler Jay?), the FalVine regime has too.  Injury risk, for example.  The present organizational philosophy, exemplified by Wes Johnson, aims to gain extra MPH from pitching arms - that can't come for free or else everyone would have done it long ago, and has to be a calculation on their part that the increase in injury frequency will be tolerable.  So we're in the sixth year of their regime and the pitching pipeline still has a clog in the spigot; a few arms have graduated during those years.

Turning to the here-and-now, they constructed the 2022 pitching staff by beginning with some young arms that have an injury track record; they supplemented that by signing Archer and Bundy who have similar recent resumes and would have to be handled gently, trading a key prospect for Sonny Gray who has been less than a workhorse the previous couple of seasons, and topped it off with a trade for a TJS candidate that the Mets looked over and turned down in Chris Paddack.  They've threaded the needle with Archer and Bundy and Gray about as successfully as possible, which means not actually very much contribution from them by analytic measures due to short outings each time, Gray being by far the best of this group.  (And, credit where due, Joe Ryan has been the exception to this entire narrative.  That trade last July was a coup.)

Sorry, but I'm not buying the "ohhhh, if we can just get some arms back from this unlucky spate of injuries" message.  This has gone about like they constructed this roster to do.

[Blyleven2011]

The FO planned to be competitive  and they have been  in a weak division  ...

They did not plan to contend for the playoffs  from my point of view by not addressing the bullpen ...

The yankees goal in spring training is  to win a world series  , everyone hates them  ....

The twins need to be like the yankees  ( yes I know there a big revenue team ) , my point is the yankees have a killer instinct that they have instilled into their players from rookie ball to the majors  ,,, when was the last time the twins had a 10 game winning streak ...

[PatPfund]

On 8/2/2022 at 11:07 AM, Mark G said:

"Can we just stop with the 'Correa fell in our laps' stuff? It just isn't true. The Twins used the Yankee interest in our new shortstop to dump Josh Donaldson's salary AND vacate the SS position precisely to jump into the top of the free agent SS market. Yep, they were targeting Story, but the ONLY reason Boras contacted the Twins is they had already done the work to make a deal with Carlos feasible. Without that work, Boras does not call, and if he did the Twins wouldn't have been able to afford him, and Correa is playing elsewhere."

Hmmmmm.......interesting take, but I seem to remember Falvine openly admitting that Boras contacted them, saying he had a proposition he believed they would be interested in.  Hence the belief that he "fell into our laps".  Now, we were actively trying to dump JD's contract, and we found a way to do it with NY, but the concept we were doing all of that so we could get Story or Correa, specifically targeting one of them, is,,,,,,,well,.......an interesting take.  Without freeing up JD's contract Boras doesn't call.......hmmmmm........not sure I can buy that one.  But it is an interesting take.    

I guess you can repeat "interesting take" as much as you want, but the timeline is pretty public (the Twins acquire Kiner-Falefa; the Yankees contact the Twins about him immediately and eat Donaldson's money to get him, all on the weekend; the Twins are linked in Story rumors right away, because they now have payroll and need a shortstop; Boras sees the situation and contacts the Twins; the two sides work out a deal and Correa agrees mid-week).

We weren't "trying" to dump JD's contract, we had done so before any Correa contact. Boras only made contact, because the Twins had freed up the money and entered the top-level SS market. So he didn't fall into our laps, the Twins took active steps to enter the premium SS market, and they got one. Not even my take. https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-correa-road-to-signing-with-twins

[Linus]

They surely had a plan it just didn’t turn out too well. I believe it was a fools errand to rely on the so called pitching pipeline this year. In any group of unproven pitchers a substantial percentage just won’t cut it and several others will be hurt. That left them with the eventual outcome which was close to nothing. They fixed the problem to a certain extent by having a great trade deadline but that can’t be the long term solution or you won’t have a farm system left. 
Here is something to consider: all our best pitchers have been obtained via trade. Not one good pitcher developed from the farm. I could throw them a bone with Jax but that’s pretty thin gruel. 

[bean5302]

On 8/2/2022 at 10:08 AM, PatPfund said:

...Can we just stop with the 'Correa fell in our laps' stuff? It just isn't true. The Twins used the Yankee interest in our new shortstop to dump Josh Donaldson's salary AND vacate the SS position precisely to jump into the top of the free agent SS market. Yep, they were targeting Story, but the ONLY reason Boras contacted the Twins is they had already done the work to make a deal with Carlos feasible. Without that work, Boras does not call, and if he did the Twins wouldn't have been able to afford him, and Correa is playing elsewhere...

 

On 8/3/2022 at 8:41 PM, PatPfund said:

I guess you can repeat "interesting take" as much as you want, but the timeline is pretty public (the Twins acquire Kiner-Falefa; the Yankees contact the Twins about him immediately and eat Donaldson's money to get him, all on the weekend; the Twins are linked in Story rumors right away, because they now have payroll and need a shortstop; Boras sees the situation and contacts the Twins; the two sides work out a deal and Correa agrees mid-week).

We weren't "trying" to dump JD's contract, we had done so before any Correa contact. Boras only made contact, because the Twins had freed up the money and entered the top-level SS market. So he didn't fall into our laps, the Twins took active steps to enter the premium SS market, and they got one. Not even my take. https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-correa-road-to-signing-with-twins

I know I'm late responding to this, but Correa absolutely, totally, undeniably fell into our laps. Without the lockout, and long lockout at that, Correa isn't available for a contract the Twins are willing to make. Correa would have gotten 7-10 years and $250MM+, no doubts. The Twins were never in a million years going to do that or probably even make a call on Correa. With Spring Training reporting 2 weeks earlier, Correa desperately needed a contract fast or he'd be behind the curve and be ill-prepared for the start of the season. 

Marcus Semien - 11/28/21 - 7yrs $175MM vs. prediction 6yrs $138MM
Javier Baez - 11/30/21 - 6yrs $140MM vs. prediction 5yrs $100MM
Corey Seager - 12/1/21 - 10yrs $325MM vs. prediction 10yrs $305MM
Trevor Story - 3/20/22 - 6yrs $140MM vs. prediction  6yrs $126MM
Carlos Correa - 3/23/22 - 3yrs $105MM vs. prediction 10yrs $320MM <--- this does not happen unless a lot of things go wrong for Correa's offseason.

A bunch of things had to go in the Twins' favor to get Correa including the need to dump Donaldson's contract which they'd been trying to do since the trade deadline in 2021. The Twins were not clearing payroll for Correa. They were clearing payroll, period, and got ahead of the Yankees to organize a big reshuffle. The Twins were in the hunt for Trevor Story, but they lost out. I suspect Falvey was hoping Story would come in much less expensive than he did and weren't able to keep pace. When Scott Boras called the Twins and offered them a March Christmas present (and probably several other teams, too), it wasn't possible to pass it up. The offer to the Twins from Boras was totally out of the blue and totally unexpected.

"We had no fewer than four to five plans [for the offseason] that were running kind of concurrently," general manager Thad Levine said. "We were trying to do some revisionist history and trying to figure out, 'Where was Carlos Correa on the plans?' And I think he was somewhere above Plan A, whatever that represents, if it's Plan A-plus or something that transcended even Plan A."

Correa was never on the radar.