Can Change-of-Scenery Help Sanchez?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Unfortunately, Gary Sanchez won’t have the privilege of seeing those beautiful center field trees at Target Field, but he does get the benefit of changing zip codes. Maybe a change of scenery is all the former Yankees backstop needs?

When the Minnesota Twins acquired Sanchez in exchange for Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, much was immediately made about the former top prospects’ struggles. He’s certainly been bad behind the dish, and he hasn’t been much good in the box of late either. However, not long ago, there was a time that he was a force to be reckoned with. Finding that again will be the key for the Twins.

Not unlike Sanchez, Sonny Gray was also recently acquired by the Twins. Also, similar to Sanchez, a change of scenery was a great prescription for his career as well. New York initially dealt for Gray because he owned a 3.45 ERA across his five years in the Majors. With Oakland, Gray had established himself as a frontline starter while picking up an All-Star nod and nearly winning a Cy Young.

Then he got to New York.
 
The first 11 starts resulted in a workable 3.72 ERA, but the walks hit a career-worst rate, and so did the home runs. The Yankees went just 4-7 in his 11 starts, and it was clear the Cracker Jack box that is Yankee Stadium was doing Gray no favors. The following season, 2018, things got even worse. Gray posted a 4.90 ERA, and there was plenty of media pressure. It was more than clear things weren’t working out.
 
Fast forward to 2019 after signing with the Cincinnati Reds, Gray was once again back to his dominant self. A 2.87 ERA was nearly a career-best, and his 10.5 K/9 represented the first time he’d averaged double-digits during his career. Despite Great American Ballpark being a hitter’s paradise, Gray dropped the HR/9 back below 1.0 to 0.9 before suppressing it further to 0.6 in 2020. Gray’s 2021 wasn’t as great. He was above the 4.00 ERA mark again and did give up too many homers, but it’s still a smashing success to see the 3.49 ERA across 68 starts with Cincinnati.
 
I’d imagine a few tweaks were made along the way by a new staff, but it’s hard not to note that a guy who was once good with Oakland was good again when escaping New York.
 
Sanchez has experienced a similar career path. After being a highly-touted prospect, he came out to the tune of a .923 OPS and 53 homers across his first 175 games. He struggled in 2018 but then rebounded with a. .841 OPS in 2019. Since 2020 however, Sanchez has played in 166 games for the Yankees and posted just a .698 OPS. He was benched regularly for Kyle Higashioka, and the media had a field day with his defensive woes. While no longer a kid at 29-years-old, I can’t imagine that didn’t weigh on him.
 
Coming to Minnesota, Sanchez gets to settle in with a group he knows well. Latin players are prevalent all over the Twins roster, and there are long-established friendships with Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco. Rocco Baldelli and his staff will look to make inroads with their new backstop, but it could be the relationships Sanchez has established from earlier in life that help acclimate him most quickly to his new home.
 
I don’t know that we’ll ever see Sanchez receive MVP votes again or capture a Silver Slugger, but I think there’s a better case than not to bank on him performing better than he did the last few years in New York. What are your thoughts? Does a change of scenery help a person? Is the New York media that damaging?

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[miracleb]

Oh boy......2-3 days later.......and we are already working the "change of scenery" angle?  Next week:  "He really worked on his pitch framing in the off season........"

[big dog]

We'll see. Hitters don't usually go from bad to good at this stage in their careers, but they do sometimes go from good to bad to good again.

I'm antsy. You give us 3 trades in a day and a half and now nothing? Quit ghosting us, Front Office!

[Dman]

He might do better in Minnesota simply because he gets to face a less competitive division.  The East with Boston, Tampa and Toronto can make it tough sledding.  Granted pitching in the central appears to be picking up as well so might be easier said than done. 

After a certain point in time hitters are generally who they are and catchers are notoriously streaky because they get injured so much.  I kind of think Sanchez is who he is at this point.  The Yankees brought in one of the better Catcher coaches (stolen from Minnesota) and it doesn't look like Sanchez improved behind the plate so again what exactly would be the plan to make him better at this point?  Maybe Bean or someone else can take a deeper dive and get some stats to tell us if there if much hope for changes for the better.

[Nashvilletwin]

Well, we all hope so.  But we shouldn’t really expect it. Sanchez may be a wonderful person, but a bad fielding, bad hitting catcher really has no place on this ball club right now.

I’m wondering how many of us on the TD (understanding how smart we are as stay-at-home GMs) would take Sanchez over Rortvedt straight up?  I would not. IMHO, it goes to show how badly the FO wanted to move JD.

Good luck Gary. I’ll be rooting for you. I just won’t be surprised if the change of scenery doesn’t make you a better catcher. 

[Eris]

Towards the end of the 2021 season, when the games really started to matter, Sanchez lost his starting job to Kyle Higashioka. A Defensive first cather. 
 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-higashioka/5517/stats?position=C

It could well be that the Yankees see Rortvedt as one of their catchers of the future

edited to add. One of the Yankees top prospects, Austin Wells (#5 in their system) is an offense first catcher with an ETA of 2023  

 

[rv78]

It appears this FO likes guys that can hit .199 or less and 30 HR's while ignoring their lack of defensive capabilities. They have taken what was probably the best catching situation of most teams in all of baseball and made it a question mark. 

[dgdynasty]

The Yankees beat us again.. they got the best player in the trade, the better of the two catchers, and the better of the two other infielders. Basically they gave us what they no longer wanted and we accepted it.

[mikelink45]

Sanchez has been in MLB for six years his BA (yes I still like this stat) over that time:

299

278

186 

232 

147 

204

OPS+ has been under 100 three times.   I am not expecting much, but as rv78 says they like the big K sluggers - Sano, Sanchez, Rooker - next up Wallner and Sabato.  

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, dgdynasty said:

The Yankees beat us again.. they got the best player in the trade, the better of the two catchers, and the better of the two other infielders. Basically they gave us what they no longer wanted and we accepted it.

This all seems true. However, I am open to the idea of the post. Sanchez shouldn't catch more than a couple dozen games but there is a scenario where he rediscovers his swing and is a good DH, perhaps even returning to his previous form. However (#2), this means that our current DH, Miguel Sano, must play in the field all year.

I would think there is a NL team that might see Sanchez in the same hopeful fashion and if the Twins can turn him for a prospect in a team's #20-30 range of prospects, this would be a further savings for the Twins. Ditto Urshela (San Diego?).

[Dman]

26 minutes ago, dgdynasty said:

The Yankees beat us again.. they got the best player in the trade, the better of the two catchers, and the better of the two other infielders. Basically they gave us what they no longer wanted and we accepted it.

I just hate getting fleeced and beaten by the Yankee's all the time.  I feel pretty much the same way. They didn't want Sanchez or Urshela anymore and got the better 3rd baseman and catcher in the deal and to top it off took our shortstop as well.  I don't see how the FO makes this hurt less but I will wait and see.  Right now it isn't sitting well.

[LewFordLives]

You forgot one interesting tidbit about Sonny Gray's time in NY. There is evidence that his lack of success had at least something to do with.....Gary Sanchez! And now they're together again!

https://www.nj.com/yankees/2018/05/why_yankees_sonny_gray_wants_and_needs_austin_romi.html#incart_river_index

Nothing personal against Gary Sanchez. I'm sure he's a good person, but I don't see how he fits on this team. They need a reliable defense-first backup catcher, and that's not him. He's still got some pop in his bat, but hasn't had a credible OBP since 2018. If they use him at DH he'll just be taking at bats away from younger guys who will hopefully still be around when this team is back in the playoffs (whenever that might be). 

If they can't trade him, then I would not be opposed to just releasing him.

 

[strumdatjag]

Is there any way to get La Tortuga back?? 

[dex8425]

26 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

You forgot one interesting tidbit about Sonny Gray's time in NY. There is evidence that his lack of success had at least something to do with.....Gary Sanchez! And now they're together again!

https://www.nj.com/yankees/2018/05/why_yankees_sonny_gray_wants_and_needs_austin_romi.html#incart_river_index

Nothing personal against Gary Sanchez. I'm sure he's a good person, but I don't see how he fits on this team. They need a reliable defense-first backup catcher, and that's not him. He's still got some pop in his bat, but hasn't had a credible OBP since 2018. If they use him at DH he'll just be taking at bats away from younger guys who will hopefully still be around when this team is back in the playoffs (whenever that might be). 

If they can't trade him, then I would not be opposed to just releasing him.

 

NY thought about releasing him. I'd at least give him some AB's before releasing him. He can't possibly be any worse than he was last year, right? I think he'll hit more than Rortvedt would this year, but of course he's worse defensively and a lot more expensive. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, dgdynasty said:

The Yankees beat us again.. they got the best player in the trade, the better of the two catchers, and the better of the two other infielders. Basically they gave us what they no longer wanted and we accepted it.

The Twins payroll got smaller. That was the goal. They wanted to have roughly the same team, but cheaper. The trade with the Yankees had nothing to do with improving the roster.

[LewFordLives]

7 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

Is there any way to get La Tortuga back?? 

Signed a minor league deal with Miami.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/marlins-sign-willians-astudillo-to-minors-contract.html

 

[TwinsDr2021]

47 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This all seems true. However, I am open to the idea of the post. Sanchez shouldn't catch more than a couple dozen games but there is a scenario where he rediscovers his swing and is a good DH, perhaps even returning to his previous form. However (#2), this means that our current DH, Miguel Sano, must play in the field all year.

For this scenario to work, don't the Twins have make a bunch of moves, getting a second catcher, probably trading Sano, so AK can play first, and hoping Rooker and or Laranch are a capable LF? Possibly move Arraez? Seems like a lot just to get a not very good hitter to DH?

To me he makes no sense on this team if you have Sano. A back up catcher that can't catch and currently can't DH because you can't start both of your catchers, can you?

[LastOnePicked]

Ah, to be a baseball fan after a trade. We're always pretty sure that the guys we gave away are going to continue regressing, while the guys we got are just on the cusp of a rebound season.

No FO in MLB would have traded Garver for Sanchez. No FO in MLB would have traded Rortvedt for Sanchez. We essentially gave up both for Sanchez. So yes, let's pray he has a great season here - or that those involved in making that trade don't get to keep making more bad deals here.

[wsnydes]

56 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Sanchez has been in MLB for six years his BA (yes I still like this stat) over that time:

299

278

186 

232 

147 

204

OPS+ has been under 100 three times.   I am not expecting much, but as rv78 says they like the big K sluggers - Sano, Sanchez, Rooker - next up Wallner and Sabato.  

I wish that I could unread this comment...

[LewFordLives]

1 hour ago, dgdynasty said:

The Yankees beat us again.. they got the best player in the trade, the better of the two catchers, and the better of the two other infielders. Basically they gave us what they no longer wanted and we accepted it.

As much as I hate this trade for the Twins, I really don't understand it from the Yankee perspective either. Yeah, Kiner-Falefa fills a hole for them, but taking on Donaldson's contract puts them $20 million over the CBT threshold this year (according to COTs), and possibly next year as well. In addition to the $50 million he's still owed, they could realistically end up paying $10 million in additional luxery tax from this trade.  They better hope he stays on the field. I get it's the Yankees, but I gotta think that's a tough pill to swallow, even for them.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/

[wsnydes]

Considering that he's a hit first player with no defensive skills moving from an extremely hitter friendly park to a more balanced park, I'm guessing that the odds of a scenery change helping are minimal.  

Of course, if he's on the roster, I really hope that I'm very wrong.

[USAFChief]

9 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

As much as I hate this trade for the Twins, I really don't understand it from the Yankee perspective either. Yeah, Kiner-Falefa fills a hole for them, but taking on Donaldson's contract puts them $20 million over the CBT threshold this year (according to COTs), and possibly next year as well. In addition to the $50 million he's still owed, they could realistically end up paying $10 million in additional luxery tax from this trade.  They better hope he stays on the field. I get it's the Yankees, but I gotta think that's a tough pill to swallow, even for them.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/

Some organizations prioritize winning over bottom line.

[mikelink45]

8 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

As much as I hate this trade for the Twins, I really don't understand it from the Yankee perspective either. Yeah, Kiner-Falefa fills a hole for them, but taking on Donaldson's contract puts them $20 million over the CBT threshold this year (according to COTs), and possibly next year as well. In addition to the $50 million he's still owed, they could realistically end up paying $10 million in additional luxery tax from this trade.  They better hope he stays on the field. I get it's the Yankees, but I gotta think that's a tough pill to swallow, even for them.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/

The Yankees just signed Rizzo - the penalty does not matter to their bottom line.  They have always been willing to pay.  Donaldson is not done, with Rizzo, Kiner, Torres, and Donaldson they have an excellent IF. I know everyone wanted to get rid of Donaldson and his contract, but it was not his contract that held us back, it is the Twins budget.  Donaldson still performed well and did what was expected.  

They saw what they wanted with Rortvedt, and he pairs with Higashioki which means NY values quality behind the plate.  Stanton, LeMahieu, Hicks, Judge and Gallo round out the lineups.  We do not match them.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, dgdynasty said:

The Yankees beat us again.. they got the best player in the trade, the better of the two catchers, and the better of the two other infielders. Basically they gave us what they no longer wanted and we accepted it.

Look, I've been as big a Ben Rortvedt supporter as anyone on this site, but unless he developed his hitting a lot in the offseason...Ben Rortvedt is not actually a better catcher than Gary Sanchez right now. Rortvedt was so horrible on offense that it wiped out all of his value on defense. Sanchez was roughly league average as a hitter and didn't have a good year. Defensively, he's below average, but he's not actually the complete horror show that he's being portrayed as. But his biggest weaknesses is in blocking the plate which shows out more obviously than anything. Historically, he's given up too many passed balls and doesn't protect his pitchers well against wild pitches. And when he's not hitting well, those are magnified even more. Sanchez was worth 1.5 fWAR and 0.7 bWAR last year. YMMV on which measure you trust more. Rortvedt was worth 0.2 fWAR and -0.1 bWAR. There's a real possibility that Rortvedt is simply not going to hit in MLB; it was always the fear with him. 

I'm not expecting sanchez to suddenly have a renaissance now that he's out of NYC, but deciding that Ben Rortvedt will now develop into a quality starting catcher in NYC is assuming a lot. His defense is good enough for him to be a backup (and Sanchez's offense is good enough for him to do the same, frankly), but let's not put on the rose-colored glasses about Ben Rortvedt just because we're mad at the front office.

The average of 7 projection systems used by Fangraphs have Sanchez being with 1.6 fWAR for 2022. For Rortvedt, it's 0.9 fWAR. (admittedly, a couple of these have Rortvedt playing very little time, but even if you quadrupled his time...Rortvedt's average comes in at 1.3 fWAR, and all of these projections have Rortvedt being a significantly better hitter in 2022)

[tarheeltwinsfan]

12 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Ah, to be a baseball fan after a trade. We're always pretty sure that the guys we gave away are going to continue regressing, while the guys we got are just on the cusp of a rebound season.

No FO in MLB would have traded Garver for Sanchez. No FO in MLB would have traded Rortvedt for Sanchez. We essentially gave up both for Sanchez. So yes, let's pray he has a great season here - or that those involved in making that trade don't get to keep making more bad deals here.

Man, looking at it this way, you could also add giving up K-F for Gio. I'd rather have K-F over Gio any day. This is disturbing. I'm glad the Twins got rid of Donaldson, who never should have been signed in the first place, but now the FO is compounding its mistakes. This has been a heavy price to pay in order to accomplish getting rid of Donaldson, who many posters liked as a productive 3B. I personally did not want to give up Petty for Gray, but I do understand the logic behind that trade. I have come to the conclusion that he Twins should have signed Story without losing Garver and Rortvedt, and could have traded Donaldson for some prospects and possibly paid some of the high contract money, which the FO obligated itself to pay when it signed Donaldson.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Hopefully he hits well enough to be of value to a playoff-capable team at the trade deadline this season.

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Ben Rortvedt is not actually a better catcher than Gary Sanchez right now.

Yes, Rortvedt is actually a better catcher and it isn't even close. The Yankees were forced to change their thinking on catchers last season .... by their pitchers. There is nothing a pitcher can do to succeed if they cannot throw the ball in the dirt occasionally and trust their catcher. Sanchez is no more a catcher than Sano would be. He has awesome power and may be great DH. The Yankees never trade a player because of money, they trade players because they lack the skills needed to help their team win games. The Yankees only care about winning.

[LastOnePicked]

6 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

now the FO is compounding its mistakes

Spot on. This is exactly where I'm at with all this. I actually liked the Garver for IKF/Henriquez trade. I came to accept that the logic for the Gray/Peguero for Petty was sound, at least since no free agent pitchers had been signed. I cannot and never will accept the logic behind this absolute debacle with the Yankees. The implosion potential for 2022 - and even 2023 - is unreal. It's a move that just reeks of desperation and panic from a FO that is in way over their heads.

But, to Ted's point in the article, little to do now but pray that the ol' "change of scenery" myth somehow comes to life here for Sanchez. 

[mikelink45]

While we debate this less that star quality player Toronto trades for Chapman from A's and Atlanta signs Olson from the A's and Schwarber signs with Phillies. 

And cubs sign Suzuki.

Why does the moves other teams make seem more exciting than the ones we do?

[MABB1959]

The Yankees always know what they are doing.  Oh my!