Has Miguel Sano Met Expectations?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Over a decade ago, the Minnesota Twins signed Miguel Sano to a contract with a $3.15 million bonus. He immediately was among the most exciting prospects in the system, and now all these years later, has he lived up to expectations?

Sano played his first professional game for Minnesota at the age of 17. He appeared in both the Dominican Summer League and Gulf Coast League during that same season. Sano had plenty of controversy during his signing period, and the story has been told through a documentary. However, he did nothing to cause questions of his talent, as his first pro season resulted in an .870 OPS.
 
He made his Major League debut five years later at 22. Up until that point, he’d topped out as the 4th best prospect in baseball, ranked as such by MLB Pipeline ahead of the 2014 season. He was coming off a .992 OPS split between High-A and Double-A, punctuated by a whopping 35 homers.
 
Now seven years into his big-league career, it’s worth wondering if he’s lived up to expectations?

Initially signed as a shortstop with projection for growth and maturation, there was never really any belief he’d stay at that spot. More a corner player with power potential, the hope was that athleticism would continue translating. Quickly moved to third base, Sano has played the edges of the dirt for the duration of his career (we’ll give Terry Ryan a pass on the right-field experiment). Offensive prowess comes first at those spots and has been the cornerstone of Sano’s game.
 
Removing the identifier of a top-10 prospect across all of baseball, Sano has been worth 9.5 fWAR across his career. Fangraphs estimates his value as worth $75.6 million which compares favorably to career earnings just north of $22 million.

Production-wise, Sano has been above average, posting an .819 OPS and 119 OPS+. In over 600 games, he’s clubbed 161 homers and 123 doubles. His lone All-Star appearance came in 2017, just two years after finishing third in the American League Rookie of the Year vote. He’s participated in a Home Run Derby and has twice topped a .900 OPS in a single season.

With just one guaranteed year left on his deal, the chapter could turn quickly, but it’s worth questioning where Sano lands, given the lofty expectations for him as a prospect. The context of his positioning in 2014 is also interesting. Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton was baseball’s best prospect. Those immediately following Sano include Archie Bradley, Taijuan Walker, Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, and Francisco Lindor. To say the list was stacked is putting it lightly.
 
Where, as Twins fans, do you feel Sano falls on this spectrum? He’s been a regular, and while streaky, an offensive asset. He’s made an All-Star team, but he’s certainly not a generational talent by any means. Is this what you’d have signed up for when the hoopla began with his initial courting?

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[Rosterman]

He is just so....streaky.

 

Coming up with two outs, men on base.

 

You say "Don't swing at that low outside pitch" and nine out of ten times he swings. He like tries hard not to do it for a day, taking one-two-three pitches...and maybe drawing a walk.

 

But what do we have to do to keep him from going after a pitch all pitchers know he will swing at 90% of his at bats?

 

Every ten at bats can you expect two hits, one of which is a homer. One walk. four strikeouts?

[Doctor Gast]

I'll have to say, he has not. I'd rate him as a good glove but far from Golden Glove caliber. But what disappoints me most is his inconsistance at the plate and all those SOs. Sano' is strong, quick and has a good eye which are are great qualities to be a great hitter. 

This is his moment of truth. At the end of 2021 I liked his more compact swing. That swing will result in less towering HRs but create less SOs and more hits, which many will be HRs because he's so strong. If he can stay with that swing, he'll be well worth his hype if not it's time to cut him off.

Both Sano' and Kepler has had a tough time adjusting their swing. A former article on Kepler this off season, I saw his swing and it seemed like when the ball was leaving his bat it was going to the opposite field. It's a moment of truth for both of them but I'm very hopeful.

[Ted Schwerzler]

45 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

He is just so....streaky.

 

Coming up with two outs, men on base.

 

You say "Don't swing at that low outside pitch" and nine out of ten times he swings. He like tries hard not to do it for a day, taking one-two-three pitches...and maybe drawing a walk.

 

But what do we have to do to keep him from going after a pitch all pitchers know he will swing at 90% of his at bats?

 

Every ten at bats can you expect two hits, one of which is a homer. One walk. four strikeouts?

Fair assessment. He flashes elite talent, then goes in the tank, and settles somewhere in between. The perception would likely be infinitely better if he never touched a .900 OPS or a .700 OPS

[Ted Schwerzler]

18 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'll have to say, he has not. I'd rate him as a good glove but far from Golden Glove caliber. But what disappoints me most is his inconsistance at the plate and all those SOs. Sano' is strong, quick and has a good eye which are are great qualities to be a great hitter. 

Love that you point this out. So many are quick to suggest Sano’s strikeouts are a reflection of a power guy that chases. When he loses his swing, he’s still incredibly disciplined, but the bat can’t get to the ball.

[mikelink45]

I had hope for Sano, but no he has not lived up to my expectations, but then I am not of the opinion that Ks don't matter.

[TwinsDr2021]

IMO, he has exceeded my expectations of player signed at 17, he has played in the majors for 7 years (8 if there is a season this year), has hit 161 homers, has a career OBP of .329, SLG of .491, and 8.4 career WAR.

With that said, after making the majors he has not my expectations, his .238 is a bit low, his age 25 season was an embarrassment, and he is too streaky. After his first 3 years in the majors I was expecting him to be a 2.5 and up WAR player, and he has only got there once in the last 4 years.

I will say that if we got his performance out of all of the international signings and high draft picks, the Twins would more than likely be good to great every year.

[chpettit19]

He certainly hasn't lived up to the expectations of being the next Miguel Cabrera. He's been a good major league player, but not the 3 hole hitting, .300 BA, 40 HR guy people had in their dreams. From the outside he never seemed to have the desire or "need" to be a great hitter, but was happy being a good power hitter. I wonder what he may have been if he were 10-15 years older and played in the era just before this and 200 Ks a year was still somewhat embarrassing and people still cared a lot about BA. He fell in love with 450 foot HRs and slugging % which played right into this era of baseball. But when he's been at his best he's sprayed the ball all over with a nice short swing. He's disappointed, but still been more than useful during his Twins career.

[Brandon]

in being fair,  we drafted him at 16 years of age.  Being that he made it to the show is beating all reasonable expectations.  Though I would have liked to see more production.  in terms of more AB, HRs, RBIs and fewer K's.  but he can still be a 400 HR hitter with 1000-1200 RBI if he gets after it when all is said and done.  I hope he has more years with the Twins after this one.

 

[gunnarthor]

He's a good player but my hope would be that he would become a HOF type bat. He has shown flashes of that - particularly his rookie year and 2017 before he got hurt a bit - but generally he's been a dangerous middle of the order type bat with injury issues. For example, he's strongly outplayed Michael Cuddyer through age 28 season. But the hope was that he'd be more like Morneau, as a floor.

Still, realistic expectations instead of HOF expectations probably favor Sano better. Outside of injuries, we probably shouldn't complain.

[roger]

Sano needs to move on from the Twins.  Because if he is traded, say next week or this summer, he will then be free to become the super-star we all expected.

[Mike Sixel]

100% yes. Odds are that a player doesn't even make the majors, let alone be REALLY good for a year or two and a legit MLB most other years. Yes. Did he meet our hopes? No, not yet. But I still think he can.

[GNess]

He has had his moments like the grand slam to beat Cleveland. He has been pretty good overall, but as pointed out by others his inconsistency, protracted slumps and high volume strikeout totals diminish his shine.

[Cap'n Piranha]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

He certainly hasn't lived up to the expectations of being the next Miguel Cabrera. He's been a good major league player, but not the 3 hole hitting, .300 BA, 40 HR guy people had in their dreams. From the outside he never seemed to have the desire or "need" to be a great hitter, but was happy being a good power hitter. I wonder what he may have been if he were 10-15 years older and played in the era just before this and 200 Ks a year was still somewhat embarrassing and people still cared a lot about BA. He fell in love with 450 foot HRs and slugging % which played right into this era of baseball. But when he's been at his best he's sprayed the ball all over with a nice short swing. He's disappointed, but still been more than useful during his Twins career.

I mean, to be fair, a Miguel Cabrera comes along once every, what...10 to 15 years?  No 16 year old should ever have that expectation put on him.  Cabrera is Top 30 all time in HR, RBI (meaning he's been good for a long time--he'll definitely be top 30 in hits soone enough too), and top 60 in SLG, WAR, wRC+, and OPS.  He's one of the handful of best hitters ever, and a surefire first-ballot HOF, with close to a unanimous vote.  If that is the expectation for a 16 year old, the problem is not the kid, it's the expectation.

[h2oface]

Has Miguel Sano Met Expectations?

Not my expectations.... but in general. Fair or not, Sano was projected to be a HOF player from the beginning. Movie and all. So the short answer is........... no.

Justify it all you want, unless he has a renaissance and becomes the sustained late career consistent hitter ala Nelson Cruz, no HOF will be in his future. And there are about 5 young players right now, and some more established young vets, that are in the one in 10-15 years of Cabrera realm, so it really is not that rare....... by 5 to 10 times....... 

But it certainly isn't Sano.

[Devilsadvocate]

8 hours ago, Brandon said:

in being fair,  we drafted him at 16 years of age.  Being that he made it to the show is beating all reasonable expectations.  Though I would have liked to see more production.  in terms of more AB, HRs, RBIs and fewer K's.  but he can still be a 400 HR hitter with 1000-1200 RBI if he gets after it when all is said and done.  I hope he has more years with the Twins after this one.

 

Hate to be the guy to say it, but he was an international free agent signing, rather than a draftee. Have a good day. 

[ashbury]

He wasn't just some random 16-year old signing, and expectations were high at the outset.  He hasn't met them.

[stringer bell]

Sano has turned out to be closer to Mark Reynolds than Miguel Cabrera or Frank Thomas. Given the hype that surrounded him as a minor leaguer and then as a rookie, he has been a disappointment. The power is there, but making contact has been a perpetual problem. He has hurt the team in the field, despite a rocket arm and more quickness than one might expect from such a large man.

The problem with Sano has not been his work ethic or commitment. He has gaps in his game that he has not been able to fill and he approaches his 29th birthday. 

[Karbo]

Sano has certainly been worth more than what he's been paid. As far as expected Avg, no he has not even come close to his minor league and rookie numbers that most were thinking he would hit as a norm in the .270 to .280 range. As others have noted his lack of contact has killed him. He just cant seem to grasp he is so strong he can power the ball out of any field even without pulling or in some cases if he doesnt even get the solid contact. This era of "homers are sexy" has hurt so many promising players that all they think about is the mammoth blasts to get on sports center or whatever TV highlights are on, and the writers are talking about.

[Blyleven2011]

No he has not met expectations  with his streaky hitting ..

 

His rookie season he was able to hit to all fields and was more a clutch hitter  and has gone backwards on his approach since than with some injuries and demotions , maybe he should stop listening to all the advise like Buxton did and hit like sano used to hit  ...

[Minny505]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

100% yes. Odds are that a player doesn't even make the majors, let alone be REALLY good for a year or two and a legit MLB most other years. Yes. Did he meet our hopes? No, not yet. But I still think he can.

This.

He's been about a 9 WAR player, splitting the difference between bWAR and fWAR. Maybe with his national prospect ranking levels you would expect more, but even by that he is probably only 2-3 wins short, at most, of the average.

On a side note, anybody looking for content to produce? Create a list of average career earnings by Baseball America Top 100, using the year a player debuted as the data point for each spot. I would love to see that. Could also do by highest rank anytime before debut. 

[Otaknam]

He has not met my expectations. He looked like a Miguel Cabrera clone when he first came up, massive power and could put the ball into play and would go the other way with a pitch. Now it’s all about pulling every pitch, strikeouts be damned. If he would strive for more contact he’d still hit 30+ home runs, 100+ rbi and average .275. 

[awmonahan]

He's been good, but I was hoping for more. Making it to MLB and producing as he has is rare. That being said, there has been little improvement to his game or batting approach since he came up. I can't speak to work ethic, but there seems to be contentment with the an approach that (200-ish Ks/year) produces results that are far from ideal.