The Twins Prospect You’re (Actually) Waiting For

[Ted Schwerzler]

During the 2021 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins saw little execution in terms of expectations. They did see a minor leaguer in Jose Miranda leap well above his. Nash recently looked at ten breakout candidates, but there’s one guy still not getting his due.

In 2017, the Twins selected Brent Rooker 35th overall out of Mississippi State. He was a stud from a strong SEC conference. Rooker was coming off a ridiculous 1.306 OPS and power that was expected to translate. However, he was immediately tabbed as a bat-only prospect, and his greatest path to the big leagues was in being able to hit. We’ve seen him struggle in the outfield, and reports are that his footwork at first base is worse. Rooker may have a future yet, but he’s now 27 and has just 234 plate appearances to the tune of a .713 OPS under his belt. That’s not going to earn time as a regular.
 
This isn’t a piece to knock Rooker though, Minnesota’s hope undoubtedly is that a guy under team control through 2027 will find it. Instead, the player you may have been expecting could instead come from 2019 39th overall pick Matt Wallner.

Wallner is a Minnesota native from Forest Lake. He played his college ball at Southern Mississippi, and his 1.127 OPS out of college was plenty impressive in its own right. Wallner both pitched and hit for the Golden Eagles. He has a cannon from the outfield and an arm on the bump that can run it up in the mid-90s. The .810 OPS was a solid start in his 2019 pro-debut, but the pandemic shelved him.
 
Without an invite to the Twins alternate site in St. Paul, Wallner kept himself ready while 2020 was shelved for Minor League Baseball. In 2021, he played at High-A Cedar Rapids and posted an .858 OPS with 15 dingers in just 68 games. Having been placed on the Injured List with a broken hamate bone which required surgery, Wallner missed nearly half of the season. Participating in the Arizona Fall League, he could have been in contention for league MVP with a 1.011 OPS if a hit-by-pitch in the face didn’t limit him to just 18 games.
 
Even with the time on the shelf, production suggests the recently-turned 24-year-old is putting it together. Wallner is much more of an athlete than Rooker before him, and he’s average at worst in the outfield. Pitching could be a fallback option for him, but that’s probably never going to be part of the story. I’d be pretty surprised if Minnesota isn’t aggressive with the former Southern Miss star in 2022. Starting at Double-A wouldn’t be a shock, and making it to Triple-A or better is potentially in the cards.
 
This time last year, Jose Miranda was left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft and became the biggest no-brainer addition. Wallner’s status didn’t necessitate a 40-man roster move this winter, but his production certainly could by next year... or sooner.

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[Prince William]

Miranda is a different from Wallner in terms of progress and and position. 6-5 and 250 is also a little different than 6-2 210. On the other hand both grapefruit and apples are both fruits. They are high in pectin which will produce something in the end.  Wallner may or may not progress this year. Edouard Jullian could be the stud from the Rapids  Who knows at that stage?

[4twinsJA]

I know they have a long way to go, just getting drafted out of high school, but looking forward to watching Noah Miller and Chase Petty's progress.

[DocBauer]

I was really disappointed in Rooker last year. Previously, he's always shown the ability to adapt to each level successfully. After a tease in 2020, I thought he had a chance to make some kind of mark in 2021. I fully appreciate there is a big step from AAA to MLB, but again, Rocker has always settled in and "figured it out" before. If Larnach needs a little more time, which is very possible, I would not be shocked to see Rooker and a healthy Cave...if he finds the 2018-19 version of himself...suddenly sharing LF in 2022, at least initially. And that wouldn't be a bad thing, although a small reach, as it would mean even more depth and even more trade possibilities. 

I think Wallner can hit. The power is real. He's got a good arm. From everything I've read/heard, he's at least average defensively. I fully expect him to begin 2022 in Wichita at this point. They key for him, like Rooker, like Sano, and others, is to be able to control his hitting zone and not be a flailing, almost automatic out/consistent K victim.

We've had fun in Forum and Main Page speculation about a future Twins lineup in a couple of years and Sabato has often been brought up as a DH and 1B option. And that may be. And I mean no disrespect to Sabato who be an absolute masher with quality OB skills, but Wallner, able to be a legitimate corner OF, would probably be more valuable if his bat plays.

[DocBauer]

22 minutes ago, 4twinsJA said:

I know they have a long way to go, just getting drafted out of high school, but looking forward to watching Noah Miller and Chase Petty's progress.

I'm still holding out some hope for Cavaco and him turning a corner in 2022. For the first half of 2021, he was Ft Myers best hitter.

And while he has a long way to go, and will have basically not pitched competitively for almost 2yrs, I'm really excited to see what Marco Raya does this next year.

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, Prince William said:

Miranda is a different from Wallner in terms of progress and and position. 6-5 and 250 is also a little different than 6-2 210. On the other hand both grapefruit and apples are both fruits. They are high in pectin which will produce something in the end.  Wallner may or may not progress this year. Edouard Jullian could be the stud from the Rapids  Who knows at that stage?

Could Julian have any better first season in pro ball? OK, the BA could be a little better I guess, but when you have that incredible OB ability, it tells me the BA will rise. He was outstanding and I don't feel we've talked enough about him. I do wonder if there's any chance he can/could play even a "decent" SS for added versatility value?

I'm also big on Steer.

[AceWrigley]

The Twins Prospect You’re (Actually) Waiting For:

Royce Lewis. Because I have no idea what to expect.

 

[Major League Ready]

Lewis and Duran.  Lewis because we badly need a long-term SS.  Duran because he has the highest ceiling among our SP prospects.  These two guys reaching their potential would be huge.  They both also have question marks and hopefully their arrival would be a product of them harnessing that potential.

[Eris]

At A+ Wallner’s stats are BB% almost 10, K% 33

 

Rooker at the same level has similar BB% with K% 29

 

Data is from Fangraphs. 

[mikelink45]

I have been trying to follow Wallner and have really liked what he has done - not a Rooker, not a Sabato - lump those two together for now, but a ballplayer who makes contact, can field, can throw and does bat.  I would love to see him progress to AAA this year.  But for now I join the Lewis and Duran bandwagon, and yet the man I really want to see is Balazovic - never seen him pitch, but we have heard so much about him the last few years that my curiosity is running high.

[jmlease1]

Wallner definitely has talent and deserves his prospect status; when he hits the ball it goes a long way and he gets on base enough and makes enough contact to be a force in a minor league lineup. But that K-rate scares me. If he's whiffing that much in A-ball, it doesn't really bode well for his ability to continue to make hard contact as he rises through the system and more importantly in MLB. Rooker has really struggled because of just this problem (his limits as a defensive player hurt him as well, and it does sound like Wallner is more of an asset there...but Wallner still looks like he tops out as "ok as a corner OF"). 

There's been a lot of sturm and drang over Austen Martin's lack of power production in AA, but it's easier to add power to a guy who can get the bat on the ball at all times and really control the strike zone then it is to add contact to a guy who whiffs a lot. Plenty of history of players adding patience at the plate and drawing more walks as they progress in their careers too, but how many went from being high K guys to good contact? I like Wallner, I'm rooting for Wallner, but I really want him to get that K-rate down to something more manageable and projectable.

I'm actually really enthusiastic about Celestino next year. I feel like they'll probably start him in AAA, but if he can continue his hitting success from last year in AAA when he returns to the majors he looks like an almost perfect 4th OF for the Twins. He was called up way too soon last year and wasn't ready for it, but rather than let it implode his season he did a great job of getting back on track when he went back down to AAA, which is where he should have spent most of his time last year anyways. Feels like he's being forgotten about a little because he struggled so badly at the plate when they hauled him up to MLB in utter desperation, but I think he's going to be really valuable especially with Buxton's injury concerns.

[chpettit19]

The prospects I'm waiting for are any and every arm. The pitching pipeline will determine what the next 5 years of Twins teams looks like. They're who I'm waiting for and hoping to see good things from.

On the hitting side I'm looking for Martin. He was my favorite hitter coming out in 2020 that wasn't named Spencer Torkelson and I think he has the highest floor/ceiling mix of any prospect in the system. His bat control and patience look special to me and I think he could hit for a decent average in the majors from opening day 2022. I've also seen him hit impressive homers both to right and left which makes me think his ceiling is superstar, even if it isn't likely. I think he's hitting in the top 3 of the Twins order for the next 10 years and expect him to reach the majors in 2022.

[Karbo]

While I am pulling for the "hometown" kid Wallner, I am anxious to see Martin. I keep hearing about his lack of power. If the guy can get on base, run, and play defense, a lack of power doesn't concern me at all. Sounds alot like Arraez  plus running and defense.

[Toferob]

I was happy to see Wallner in the AFL. I think if he doesn't get hit in the face with a pitch that he makes the all-star team. He was my first 1/1 baseball card too!

[Game7-91]

Like Wallner but seems to me to be one our most tradeable prospects for starting pitcher. Wallner and one of Balezovich, Canterino, Strotman.....for a Manea or Mahle...its going to take giving up quality. 

[bean5302]

Royce Lewis is the prospect I most want to follow in 2022 (please let there be a full 2022).

Wallner is a fringy prospect unless he can manage the strikeouts a little better. His AFL appearance hung out at 30% as I recall, which is better than I expected and against competition which is historically better than A+ ball. I sometimes wonder why prospects like Wallner don't invest more time into conditioning. If he had some better wheels, he'd rise a lot in terms of potential value.

Some comments in here about Rooker, but I'm not as concerned about him. The advanced metrics showed he had really lousy luck in 2021. His expected numbers were much higher than the actual results. Here's hoping he not only takes a step forward in 2022, but the luck evens out.

[Prince William]

On 12/18/2021 at 2:01 PM, bean5302 said:

Royce Lewis is the prospect I most want to follow in 2022 (please let there be a full 2022).

Wallner is a fringy prospect unless he can manage the strikeouts a little better. His AFL appearance hung out at 30% as I recall, which is better than I expected and against competition which is historically better than A+ ball. I sometimes wonder why prospects like Wallner don't invest more time into conditioning. If he had some better wheels, he'd rise a lot in terms of potential value.

Some comments in here about Rooker, but I'm not as concerned about him. The advanced metrics showed he had really lousy luck in 2021. His expected numbers were much higher than the actual results. Here's hoping he not only takes a step forward in 2022, but the luck evens out.

32% K rate is lousy luck

[h2oface]

On 12/17/2021 at 12:05 PM, Game7-91 said:

Like Wallner but seems to me to be one our most tradeable prospects for starting pitcher. Wallner and one of Balezovich, Canterino, Strotman.....for a Manea or Mahle...its going to take giving up quality. 

At least if Mahle is on the Twins, he can't break Buxton's hand again, eh? 

https://www.mlb.com/news/byron-buxton-left-hand-injury-twins

I am not that optimistic about any of the arms, so I want to see Lewis. Tic Toc. Time to shine or move on. I don't know if that qualifies though, because I am (actually) tired of waiting for him. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

At least if Mahle is on the Twins, he can't break Buxton's hand again, eh? 

https://www.mlb.com/news/byron-buxton-left-hand-injury-twins

I am not that optimistic about any of the arms, so I want to see Lewis. Tic Toc. Time to shine or move on. I don't know if that qualifies though, because I am (actually) tired of waiting for him. 

Bringing up a guy who has missed two years because we are tired of waiting for him is not exactly good development practice.  I guess it's just fine for a fan but absolute incompetence for an organization.