This Twins Front Office Doesn’t Have An Inspiring Trade Deadline Track Record

[Tom Froemming]

Derek Falvey, Thad Levine and the rest of the Minnesota Twins front office are going to be busy these next few weeks. Here’s hoping they’ve learned lessons from their previous trade deadline decisions. 

I recently wrote about how I’ve lost faith in this front office and this exercise didn’t make me feel any better. To be fair, there’s still a lot yet to be determined from some of these trades. The Twins have quite a few of the players acquired in these deadline deals still in their system. Still, I think there are some things we can take away from revisiting these deals.

We’re going to be using FanGraphs’ version of WAR to evaluate these deals. That seemed like the most direct way to put a number on these things, but no matter how you want to look at it I think you’re going to come to the same conclusion. It’s not very close. Well, at least for now.

Here’s a breakdown on how the Twins made out from the 2017 trade deadline.

Additions		Subtractions
Jaime Garcia	0.2	Huascar Ynoa	0.7
Anthony Recker	0.0
Gabriel Moya	0.0	John Ryan Murphy	1.0
Zack Littell	0.0	Jaime Garcia	0.3
Dietrich Enns	-0.1
Tyler Watson	0.0	Brandon Kintzler	0.3
2017 TOTALS
TWINS	0.1	TRADE PARTNERS	2.3

Let’s take a look at 2018.The Twins didn’t get much here, and only have Tyler Watson left from this group. Watson has a 2.45 ERA this year but it’s as a 24-year-old in High-A. Huascar Ynoa has a 3.02 ERA in the big leagues at 23. Things already don’t look good for the Twins here, but Ynoa figures to be in Atlanta’s rotation for years to come. Yes, John Ryan Murphy really did provide some value (almost all of it on defense) as a backup catcher during the two-plus years of team control he had after the deal. 

Additions		Subtractions
Jhoan Duran	0.0	Eduardo Escobar	1.0
Gabriel Maciel	0.0
Ernie De La Trinidad	0.0
Jorge Alcala	-0.1	Ryan Pressly	2.5
Gilberto Celestino	-0.4
Chase De Jong	0.0	Zach Duke	0.1
Ryan Costello	0.0
Tyler Austin	0.3	Lance Lynn	2.0
Luis Rijo	0.0
Logan Forsythe	0.4	Brian Dozier	-0.2
Devin Smeltzer	0.7
Luke Raley	0.0
Dakota Chalmers	0.0	Fernando Rodney	-0.1
2018 TOTALS
TWINS	0.9	TRADE PARTNERS	5.3

The Escobar and Pressly figures are only from their years of control that were traded at the time. Credit to their current organizations for signing them to extensions, but anything they’ve done during those additional seasons shouldn’t be factored into these trade evaluations. Lance Lynn, man. He flipped his K:BB ratio from 1.61 with the Twins to 4.36.

The Twins are way behind so far, but Jhoan Duran and Co. could eventually swing things the other direction. Still, being three years removed from this trade deadline and having seen very little materialize on the big club is a bit of a letdown. 

If there's one prospect acquired who you'd hope would be on his way to becoming an established major leaguer by now it's Jorge Alcala. He turns 26 later this month and has been worth -0.4 fWAR so far this season. He actually has a worse FIP than Alex Colomé this year. Alcala ranks 171st among the 177 qualified relievers in FIP this year. Yikes. 

Onward to the 2019 deadline.

Additions		Subtractions
Sergio Romo	0.5	Lewin Diaz	-0.3
Chris Vallimont	0.0
Sam Dyson	-0.2	Jaylin Davis	-0.6
		Kai-Wei Teng	0.0
		Prelander Berroa	0.0
2019 TOTAL
TWINS	0.3	TRADE PARTNERS	-0.9

The same logic that applied to Escobar and Pressly applies here with Romo. This only accounts for 2019. He became a free agent after that season and signed a deal to return to Minnesota, so his performance that year was not included.

The Twins actually come out ahead, so far, but that Sam Dyson trade could really end up biting them. I’ve always thought that trade with the Marlins was pretty clever. The Twins front office managed to buy for now and later. Romo pitched well and Chris Vallimont is looking quite intriguing in Double-A. He cracked Twins Daily’s top-20 prospects in our most recent update. Lewin Diaz could end up being a nice piece for Miami but it’s not like the Twins need another left-handed bat or first baseman.

And that’s it. The Twins didn’t make any moves leading up to last year’s trade deadline. Let’s tally up the damage.

GRAND TOTAL
TWINS	1.3	TRADE PARTNERS	6.7

Things don’t look great. Sure, the Twins have some prospects that will hopefully improve upon their current mark, but Ynoa and the prospects dealt at the 2019 deadline could also tip the scales the other direction.

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[wsnydes]

My psyche probably could have done without reading this...yikes!

It probably doesn't matter, but the team is in a different position than it's been since this FO took over.  It remains to be seen if they actually take advantage of being a seller rather than a (timid) buyer.

[roger]

Will agree with the above comment, hurt my eyes reading this, Tom.

Most of the loss comes from trading Pressley and Lynn.  Just don't understand how Lynn could be so good since leaving Target Field after being worthless while here?

And on the flip side, so much of what they received still isn't ready to provide value.  Duran, Celestino, Alcala, De La Trinidad all could return enough value to offset the difference.  Will they?  Who knows, probably not.

But what your report does point out is that when trading guys maybe they should try to get something back that can contribute value a hell of a lot sooner than three, four years in the future.  Heck these trades were three and four years ago and we are still waiting for the return.  Gonna have to be different this month if they want to compete in 2022 and fill any seats with paying customers, or even 2023.  

[chpettit19]

Think there needs to be some pretty big qualifiers on this. Major leaguer for major leaguer trades don't happen too often anymore. So going by major league WAR stats is going to make almost any trade within the first couple years look like a bad decision for the team getting prospects. James Shields had accumulated 2.0 bWAR with Chicago in 2017 and 2018 while Fernando Tatis Jr had accumulated 0 with San Diego. That's considered one of the most lopsided trades in MLB history.

Tom says "for now" or "there's a lot to be determined yet," but to title the article the way it's titled and use WAR as the determining factor on success of these trades is really misleading. If Duran turns into an ace, or even a #2 or 3 starter the Twins crushed that deal. That doesn't even account for Maciel and De La Trinidad. Pressley went to Houston and watched his breaking ball spin rate go through the roof while being shown on camera spraying his arm with illegal substances. Ynoa had a 5.26 ERA in rookie ball when he was dealt. Lance Lynn had been a malcontent and pretty awful at pitching during his time here and wasn't going to be brought back the next year (late signing who was cranky he didn't get a big deal). 

Pressley, Ynoa, and Lynn are the only 3 guys on this list who the Twins could have used since they've been gone. That's 1 rookie ball pitcher they traded away in a "win now" move that fans around here beg for constantly, 1 veteran who wasn't pitching well and wasn't going to come back the next year on an under .500 team. And 1 reliever who I wish we still had, but started cheating when he went to his new team. If Alcala was performing the way his pure stuff suggests he should that trade would already be a wash. They got exactly what they were looking for with Romo and added a top 20 prospect for Lewin Diaz. They got a top 5 system and top 100 global prospect back for an Escobar rental. They certainly haven't crushed any of the trades yet, but they've also only dealt veteran rentals, low level prospects, and a reliever. What do you expect to get out of those deals beyond what they did? Title and feel of this article don't seem to match the reality of these trades in my opinion.

[prouster]

I’m not sure this is the best method to answer the question of Falvine’s deadline track record. Of course the players traded away will accumulate more WAR when you’re swapping major leaguers for minor leaguers—players accumulating WAR for players not yet accumulating WAR. At this point I think all we can do is evaluate the process and wait on the final results. 

[Dman]

To me it is kind of Minnesota Meh.  When the Twins had good players to trade it seems like they got decent returns.  Most lottery tickets are not going to work out so no real surprises there.

Trades are tricky things to evaluate though.  One team is usually trading for a short term burst in talent while the other is willing to wait long term for young unproven talent to work out.  The team trading for short term always leaves themselves open to losing big time in a trade.  As they are likely only getting a proven player for a short period of time and the other team is getting prospects that if they make it can accumulate 6 years of WAR.  I guess my point is the team trading for short term talent the year they really need it is willing to lose the future value of the trade because they need help now.  They don't care if it looks like they got fleeced in the future because they were playing to win now.  

With that in mind you can evaluate how trades worked out for both teams but you have to keep in mind the team trading for MLB talent was always willing to lose the trade.  They had to give up enough future value to make it worthwhile for the other team to trade.  

The Twins still have a fair bit of future value left on the table and Duran alone could tip the scales or he could be injured and never make it such is the nature of risk in baseball.  Still he is rated the Twins 3rd best prospect so hard to fault the FO for making a bad trade even if he never makes it, he had front of the rotation potential but risk is risk.  Sometimes things work out sometimes they don't.

While I wouldn't say this FO has fleeced anyone I don't think they have been fleeced either.

 

[USAFChief]

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Think there needs to be some pretty big qualifiers on this. Major leaguer for major leaguer trades don't happen too often anymore. So going by major league WAR stats is going to make almost any trade within the first couple years look like a bad decision for the team getting prospects. James Shields had accumulated 2.0 bWAR with Chicago in 2017 and 2018 while Fernando Tatis Jr had accumulated 0 with San Diego. That's considered one of the most lopsided trades in MLB history.

Tom says "for now" or "there's a lot to be determined yet," but to title the article the way it's titled and use WAR as the determining factor on success of these trades is really misleading. If Duran turns into an ace, or even a #2 or 3 starter the Twins crushed that deal. That doesn't even account for Maciel and De La Trinidad. Pressley went to Houston and watched his breaking ball spin rate go through the roof while being shown on camera spraying his arm with illegal substances. Ynoa had a 5.26 ERA in rookie ball when he was dealt. Lance Lynn had been a malcontent and pretty awful at pitching during his time here and wasn't going to be brought back the next year (late signing who was cranky he didn't get a big deal). 

Pressley, Ynoa, and Lynn are the only 3 guys on this list who the Twins could have used since they've been gone. That's 1 rookie ball pitcher they traded away in a "win now" move that fans around here beg for constantly, 1 veteran who wasn't pitching well and wasn't going to come back the next year on an under .500 team. And 1 reliever who I wish we still had, but started cheating when he went to his new team. If Alcala was performing the way his pure stuff suggests he should that trade would already be a wash. They got exactly what they were looking for with Romo and added a top 20 prospect for Lewin Diaz. They got a top 5 system and top 100 global prospect back for an Escobar rental. They certainly haven't crushed any of the trades yet, but they've also only dealt veteran rentals, low level prospects, and a reliever. What do you expect to get out of those deals beyond what they did? Title and feel of this article don't seem to match the reality of these trades in my opinion.

So the Twins get a pass because prospects take time, but don't take the blame when Ynoa goes the other way and is producing NOW in the big leagues? 

Get credit for how Alcala SHOULD be doing?

[Trov]

I have issues with the evaluation of straight war comparisons to determine how a team did in trade.  Yes, you can use it to say how the players performed, but to decide if a trade was good or bad needs much more than just WAR.  

Specifically, context should be looked at.  If you are trading away a player on end of deal like Lynn on a losing team, who cares what the WAR was from them, because you were not winning with them.  Also, unless you know of what may have been turned down it may have been the best trade available.  Maybe at the time no trades would have been good and you could have kept them to just walk as a FA.  I say at least try the trade. 

Also, as you mentioned if you are dealing from depth you need to compare the player dealt to the players kept.  For example, we trade away a corner OF.  We have several that rank above them and perform to all-star level, even if the one traded away performs at a high level if the players kept perform better, then even if the player brought back has lower WAR we still may have made a good deal. 

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

So the Twins get a pass because prospects take time, but don't take the blame when Ynoa goes the other way and is producing NOW in the big leagues?

Didn't give anyone a pass or put blame on anyone. Simply said the title of the article and the use of WAR as the determining factor are misleading then provided reasons why I think that. Ynoa was a complete lottery ticket for the Braves in that trade. If the Twins bring back a rookie ball pitcher with a 5+ ERA for Pineda is your reaction going to be "oh man, we just got a guy who will be in the bigs in 2 years!"? Or are you going to be on here complaining about how the FO has no idea what they're doing and just got screwed by giving up a major leaguer for a rookie ball pitcher? I'm not giving blame or passes, I'm saying there's a lot of context missing here.

[Otto von Ballpark]

32 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Didn't give anyone a pass or put blame on anyone. Simply said the title of the article and the use of WAR as the determining factor are misleading then provided reasons why I think that. Ynoa was a complete lottery ticket for the Braves in that trade. If the Twins bring back a rookie ball pitcher with a 5+ ERA for Pineda is your reaction going to be "oh man, we just got a guy who will be in the bigs in 2 years!"? Or are you going to be on here complaining about how the FO has no idea what they're doing and just got screwed by giving up a major leaguer for a rookie ball pitcher? I'm not giving blame or passes, I'm saying there's a lot of context missing here.

I don't think we'd be rendering any final decisions about it on the day of the trade. But in 4 years, if that lotto ticket is a plus producer in MLB, while Pineda fizzles out almost immediately, I think we'd call it a great move by the Twins and a failed gamble by our trading partner. Which seems to be how that particular trade is described in this article (great for the Braves, failed gamble by the Twins).

Agreed that there is still time to evaluate the 2018 deals, although the bar is likely higher than just Pressly's WAR (we had to trade for other relievers at the 2019 deadline and could have used those resources to supplement a different spot instead).

[Mark G]

Once again, I know I will be a minority of one here, but I don't care even a little bit about any of the analytics that computers spit out saying who did what and who the computer says got the better end of the deal.  When we trade Cruz, which I believe we will, it won't matter to me what grade the prospects we get back have from the computer; I will care about the presence in the clubhouse and the dugout that is now gone.  If it were to turn out the Donaldson was a distraction in the same areas, with his antics, I wouldn't care how many home runs he hit in losing battles.  And so on.  

I care about how a team comes together and plays together, and if the FO trades away key pieces of that team, regardless of the record, the team is not the same.  Especially when the team sees the return from said trades; players that will never see the roster until current players are long gone.  A friend and teammate for a minor league player they will probably never meet.  One of the reasons I have harped my entire life on getting current talent for current talent.  In todays game, where social media helps players stay in touch and get to know each other, players acquired in trades fit in much faster than ever before and help reduce the sting of losing teammates.  Calling up AAA guys just isn't the same a lot of the time.

Use trades to fill holes, not fill your farm teams; that is what the draft is for.  If you can't get return for outgo, walk away.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Didn't give anyone a pass or put blame on anyone. Simply said the title of the article and the use of WAR as the determining factor are misleading then provided reasons why I think that. Ynoa was a complete lottery ticket for the Braves in that trade. If the Twins bring back a rookie ball pitcher with a 5+ ERA for Pineda is your reaction going to be "oh man, we just got a guy who will be in the bigs in 2 years!"? Or are you going to be on here complaining about how the FO has no idea what they're doing and just got screwed by giving up a major leaguer for a rookie ball pitcher? I'm not giving blame or passes, I'm saying there's a lot of context missing here.

In general I prefer major leaguers to prospects, but If the front office can get someone with Ynoa's arm for Pineda I'd be pretty impressed.

 

It's also not really accurate to describe Ynoa as just another "rookie ball pitcher with a 5 ERA."

The Twins had given Ynoa $800,000 to sign just a couple years earlier. He was a huge FA get out of the DR.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Romo gave us some good value and good innings.

But this is what makes Huascar Ynoa such a great example, even though it’s still a bit early in the guy’s career.

Various people have talked at various times about guys like Nick Anderson, Jake Reed, John Curtiss, and others, guys in the high minors, but with Ynoa, no one saw it coming. No one in Minnesota, anyway.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

How about trades not made? It would also be interesting to see what the conversation around trading Sano was in 2018. And I like Sano. He has given us some value and some moments, but if the ultimate goal is reaching the World Series, how much worse for wear would the Twins have been without him, three years on.

[Karbo]

I agree that the WAR comparison is worthless when comparing minor leaguers. However, in todays game if you are in a retool mode like I believe the Twins are in I dont think you can trade a Cruz type for prospects that are 4+ years away from helping the team. This season is a bust. But in all reality, where would we be today with an average? How about 1 more decent starter? I think we would be right in the the mix hoping Buxton will get back back soon to make a push for another division title. 1 decent starter and maybe 2-3 avg. relievers? Not that far away. Look at the biggest difference between the Twins and Sox and you see Pitching. I dont want to wait 4 years for that to develop in the minors. With the collective bargaining deal coming up the baseball risks losing fans. Can the Twins risk losing a bunch more fans clearing out favorite players making the team even worse the rest of the year to gamble on a risk that the odds are actually against them?

[SteelDodo]

Agreed that this is an apples vs. oranges comparison.

To compare numbers that may be a bit more relatable, on Baseballtradevalues.com,

Escobar is currently worth $4million, Duran is worth $11.2m, Maciel is worth $4.9m, and De la Trinidad is not ranked.

I know these numbers aren't that accurate, and Escobar's value today isn't as high as it was in 2018, but I still think the Twins got GREAT value on this trade.

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

In general I prefer major leaguers to prospects, but If the front office can get someone with Ynoa's arm for Pineda I'd be pretty impressed.

 

It's also not really accurate to describe Ynoa as just another "rookie ball pitcher with a 5 ERA."

The Twins had given Ynoa $800,000 to sign just a couple years earlier. He was a huge FA get out of the DR.

He was a solid get out of the DR that year for sure. Ranked in the 20th or so area for international signings that year. Not bad at all. But there's a ton of arms in the low levels that throw as hard as him. He was a lottery ticket and nothing more. It turned out well and kudos should be given to Atlanta for getting him to the bigs and having him perform well this year. No doubt about it. But it wasn't a bad trade at the time for the Twins. It made sense to give up a rookie ball pitcher lottery ticket for a Major leaguer. It's basically always a smart move to do that. I think we'd agree on that.

And, I know you probably won't be a big fan of these numbers in general, but I'd pump my brakes on Ynoa. He's got a great WHIP and ERA this year for sure. Not taking anything away from him. But when he gets hit he gets smashed. 12th percentile for Avg Exit Velocity. 5th percentile for Hard Hit%. 24th for xERA. 20th for xBA. 14th for xSlg. 12th for Barrel%. Now he's getting results and I'm certainly not predicting he falls apart or taking anything away from what he's done this year, but he's walking a real tight rope with the way he gives up loud contact. For reference Jorge Alcala is 76th, 52nd, 34th, 46th, 15th, and 20th in those same categories. Obviously a difference between starter and reliever, but Ynoa's no certain thing even right now.

My point on this article is there's a lot of context missing in Tom's breakdown. Trading expiring deal veterans on bad teams typically don't lead to big time returns. Sometimes you crush one like Tatis Jr for James Shields. Sometimes you get a Ynoa for Garcia deal. But those are few and far between. It's why people are proponents of trading prospects for proven major league talent. There is nothing from these previous deals that I would say lends itself to any sort of indicator on how this FO could do with trading someone like Berrios. You could draw upon the Pressly deal when considering a Rogers deal, but that's about the only comparison you can make and this article lacks a lot of context and using WAR to determine results here isn't a useful exercise in my opinion.

[South Dakota Tom]

Lots of good points above.  Whenever you trade a mlb player at the deadline because the team is out of contention, you "could" get a middling mlb or AAA ballplayer back, or a prospect with upside.  It's a gamble, but the upside prospect is probably worth the risk when they pan out, rather than a known quantity with limited ability to help the big league club.  Plus, (again as pointed out) it takes some time for these long-shot, low-level, crap-shoot prospects to realize their ultimate value - whether zero or something substantial.

And could you please (for those of us who don't know the prospects by face or uniform number), add a parenthetical with the name of the person pictured whenever you use a photo?  Thanks.

[prouster]

49 minutes ago, SteelDodo said:

Agreed that this is an apples vs. oranges comparison.

To compare numbers that may be a bit more relatable, on Baseballtradevalues.com,

Escobar is currently worth $4million, Duran is worth $11.2m, Maciel is worth $4.9m, and De la Trinidad is not ranked.

I know these numbers aren't that accurate, and Escobar's value today isn't as high as it was in 2018, but I still think the Twins got GREAT value on this trade.

My guess is that for better or worse, this is probably closer to how most front offices think these days. 

[Tom Froemming]

Looking toward the future on how things might end up, here are the guys still contributing to these totals:

Twins: Tyler Watson, Jhoan Duran, Gabriel Maciel, Ernie De La Trinidad, Jorge Alcala, Gilberto Celestino, Luis Rijo, Devin Smeltzer and Chris Valimont.

Their Trade Partners: Huascar Ynoa, Lewin Diaz, Jaylin Davis, Kai-Wei Teng and Prelander Berroa.

I think I spent plenty of time qualifying things in the article and saying the book isn't closed, but I still very much stand by the headline. I think it's difficult to be inspired by what this front office has achieved in these deals, even when considering what's to come. I suppose that may say more about how high I currently am on Ynoa and how concerned I am about Duran's future role than anything.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

...It would also be interesting to see what the conversation around trading Sano was in 2018...

The Twins tried to trade Sano as a headliner for Chris Archer. The Rays said no way. Sano had many off field issues, he was missing a lot of time due to injuries, there were concerns about his conditioning and his bat was bad in 2018. I strongly suspect the league didn't value Sano as highly as Twins fans.

[bean5302]

I'd simply argue the Twins have never been a team to make a splash at the trade deadline. Actually, I don't think MLB fans generally see a lot of big moves in any given year despite all the speculation.

The difficult situation right now is the Twins don't have much of an identity after this year and other division rivals are clearly already better teams with bigger budgets. The current front office has, once again, squandered opportunities to "put the boot on the throat" when they were obvious favories.

[Greglw3]

Here’s what I posted on Twitter yesterday and it’s relevant to the FO decision making.

 

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure how that Escobar trade is anything but an A at this point. It was an expiring contract in a year the team was going nowhere.

My issue with all of the "buy" trades was they aimed low. Like they were hedging their bet, instead of really going for it. 

I recall the angst many here had about trading Ynoa, and how those people were pretty much ridiculed for thinking the Twins couldn't afford to deal a low A prospect for a legit MLB pitcher. 

The Pressley trade is the only one that I think (of the sales) you can really question. That said, the two guys they got should be better at some point.

Getting anything for Diaz was good. Signing him in the first place was VERY questionable. They had the most or near  most international room that year, and signed a 1B. Mind. Boggling.

So? Inspiring? Not really, yet. Terrible? The only two you can question, and one of those is pure hindsight, is Ynoa and Pressley.  Mostly they deal guys with not much value for guys that have not yet (and maybe never will) provided much value.

Really, the issue is NOT being more bold. Trading off good/great players for better prospects, or trading better prospects for better MLB players. Much like the last FO, pretty much very conservative.

[Whitey333]

Very interesting comments.  I will put my 2 cents worth in.  Twins tend to trade expiring contracts for prospects that MAY be helpful 3 or 4   years down the line, analytical b.s. not withstanding.  We need better players obviously.  But we also need better coaches and manager that can put the computer down and manage.  

[Vanimal46]

Excellent analysis Tom! The truth hurts reading the results 3-4 years later. The Eduardo Escobar trade looks like a win if Duran sticks in the rotation. I was on record hating the Pressly trade as it occurred, and still hate it today. Sure, now we’ve seen both players received in the trade make their MLB debut. Neither look like difference makers. What really hurt is Pressly became a stud immediately after the trade to the tune of 78 innings and 1.85 ERA for the remaining 1.5 years of control.  

[nicksaviking]

I'm not surprised the Twins are on the losing end; when they were "sellers" they made more trades than when they were "buyers" so obviously the guys they get back aren't going to produce anything yet.

But the trade deadline always seems important during the season because we are focused on baseball. But it's hardly the best time to make trades and everyone always tends to overestimate how many quality MLB players actually are available and reasonably get-able in July anyway. I'm more disappointed that the team isn't wheeling and dealing regularly during the offseason. Kudos on the Maeda and Odorizzi trades, but seeing as they've had success in winter moves, why aren't they doing more? What's the point in stockpiling all of these corner bats if you aren't going to flip them regularly? 

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

this article lacks a lot of context and using WAR to determine results here isn't a useful exercise in my opinion.

You said a lot in this one sentence.  It's hard to "lose" in a trade when trading a rental in a lost season. (context)  If you trade away a good player with multiple years of control, you need to get something back.  If you trade average players that are rentals, you are going to get low probability players.  Mike, is right, I recall the ridicule when Ynoa was traded for anyone who had a problem with them trading a way such a player.   Now we are going to ridicule the FO because of such trades when the players are just about to reach the ML level. 

What's worse is that these trades have significant potential to work out very much in our favor so drawing a conclusion at this point is self-indulgent.  And, using WAR to evaluate trading away a current asset looks like a very bias way of trying to assert something that is yet to be determined.  It would not be offensive if it was not used to criticize and assert incompetence.  It's bad form to provide obviously flawed analysis while criticizing others.  

[se7799]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

He was a solid get out of the DR that year for sure. Ranked in the 20th or so area for international signings that year. Not bad at all. But there's a ton of arms in the low levels that throw as hard as him. He was a lottery ticket and nothing more. It turned out well and kudos should be given to Atlanta for getting him to the bigs and having him perform well this year. No doubt about it. But it wasn't a bad trade at the time for the Twins. It made sense to give up a rookie ball pitcher lottery ticket for a Major leaguer. It's basically always a smart move to do that. I think we'd agree on that.

And, I know you probably won't be a big fan of these numbers in general, but I'd pump my brakes on Ynoa. He's got a great WHIP and ERA this year for sure. Not taking anything away from him. But when he gets hit he gets smashed. 12th percentile for Avg Exit Velocity. 5th percentile for Hard Hit%. 24th for xERA. 20th for xBA. 14th for xSlg. 12th for Barrel%. Now he's getting results and I'm certainly not predicting he falls apart or taking anything away from what he's done this year, but he's walking a real tight rope with the way he gives up loud contact. For reference Jorge Alcala is 76th, 52nd, 34th, 46th, 15th, and 20th in those same categories. Obviously a difference between starter and reliever, but Ynoa's no certain thing even right now.

My point on this article is there's a lot of context missing in Tom's breakdown. Trading expiring deal veterans on bad teams typically don't lead to big time returns. Sometimes you crush one like Tatis Jr for James Shields. Sometimes you get a Ynoa for Garcia deal. But those are few and far between. It's why people are proponents of trading prospects for proven major league talent. There is nothing from these previous deals that I would say lends itself to any sort of indicator on how this FO could do with trading someone like Berrios. You could draw upon the Pressly deal when considering a Rogers deal, but that's about the only comparison you can make and this article lacks a lot of context and using WAR to determine results here isn't a useful exercise in my opinion.

But I would take production over the analytical numbers you posted.  

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, se7799 said:

But I would take production over the analytical numbers you posted.  

For sure. I even said that in the post. Not taking away anything from what he's doing and not predicting a collapse. But those numbers are certainly a red flag. At the end of the day his job is to stop the other team from scoring. He's doing that well now. But there's some pretty big signs that it may not be sustainable. I wish the kid nothing but the best and that trade is certainly not a gold star moment for the FO. And I'm well aware that a large segment of the baseball fan population aren't fans of statcast data, advanced stats, analytics, what-have-you, but its available data that gives a look into how he's performing that people can do with what they will. I omitted his 74th percentile K%, 81st BB%, 71st Whiff%, and 78th Chase Rate that explain why he's able to survive giving up hard contact. The job of front offices and scouts and coaches is to determine if he can maintain those good rates and/or improve the bad ones. 

I'd certainly rather have Ynoa in a Twins uniform right now than having traded him for 1 Garcia start, but that's hindsight and I wasn't overly upset with the trade at the time.