Front Page: Spending the Twins Rotation Tab

[rv78]

Anything less than the best available is settling for 2nd best which will get you no-where in the playoffs. If this season didn't teach them that then they have rocks for brains and they are selling Hope for another year. Are you a buyer again?

[FLTwinsGuy]

Not surprising, but Cole's teammate Josh Reddick said he thinks Gerrit would like to head out west..Like everyone says, money talks, but id imagine those western teams would offer just as much, if not more than Minnesota.. Obviously not going out on a limb, but SS and Cole are pipe dreams..Wheeler seems like our best bet

[BD57]

Make a huge run at Cole; let him know "Whatever it takes."  It may not work, but we need to be seen as "serious in the market."

 

We need a "#1" - we don't have one now.

[Physics Guy]

As much as I would love to find the way to get Cole, I have a hard time believing he doesn't resign with the Astros or head out west.  I suspect he gets 6yrs/$210 M.  I wouldn't be opposed to Strasburg, but he does have a problem staying healthy and will be coming off a prolonged post-season.  With that in mind, here's my best guess as to what the Twins might be willing to do:

 

1)  Sign Bumgarner to a 5 yr, $100M contract.  One less year and slightly lower AAV to the top contracts the past two years (Corbin 6/$140 and Darvish 6/$126).  He could be the Blyleven/Morris veteran signing that got the '87 and '91 teams over the hump.  His avg. FB actually increased a little this year and is close to his peak.  I don't think he is as done as some believe. 

 

2)  Sign Wheeler to a 4yr/$72M or 5/$90M contract.  This would have been the second best FA contract to a starter in either '17 or '18.  

 

3)  Offer the QO to Odorizzi and see if he will sign 3/$45-48.

 

Total signings come out to be $55-56M per year, within the feasible range.  This gives us 4 solid starters and one spot to be filled by the youngsters.

 

Rotation

Berrios

Bumgarner

Wheeler

Odorizzi

Thorpe/Dobnak/Schmelzer

[Twins1964]

I've mentioned it in a few other threads but I just think the Twins are much more likely to follow the Rays example. They'll have one or two real starters (Berrios for sure and then a handful of pitchers that the team will hope can go 6 innings starting with Pineda and maybe Graterol for a month or two by the end of the season). The rest of the innings will be eaten up by a large bullpen.

 

With payroll concerns, I don't think we will see the team target 180+ inning starters anymore. Instead we will probably try to find 8 arms that can throw 60-80 innings if needed. I expect that the Twins will be big on AAAA arms* this offseason that can shuttle between Rochester and the majors, as needed. And arms that can be DFA'd without much concern (Mejia, Eades, De Jong). I could see us making some low budget FA signings for guys like Drew Smyly or maybe even signing someone like Ivan Nova, but that's probably our ceiling.

 

On the trade front, I don't think we'd trade for Thor but I'm still a big believer in fixing Dylan Bundy and Johnson might be a good coach for him. 

 

* Somehow, Littell, Smeltzer, Dobnak and Stashak combined for nearly 140 innings of 3.30 era. That's the AAAA arms we'll rely on.

[Twins1964]

Very sound analysis. Those Twins fans clamoring for Cole, Strasburg etc are going to be disappointed. Dodgers annual massive payroll good example $$$$ doesn’t guarantee a World Series appearance or win.

FO 2020 moves will be much more in line with your thoughts. The Pohlad bashers are emotional louts. Twins FO approach of building infrastructure and trying to develop every player to the best of his ability is logical and cost effective. For reasonable Twins fans the FO game plan may create a period of regular season success and a competitive post season team.

[Twins1964]

If we go with the assumption that the squad has $70mil for pitching:

 

Pineda @ $10mil AAV

Odorizzi @ $20mil AAV

Cole or Strasburg @ up to $40mil AAV

 

Offseason shopping for the rotation done! You're welcome Falvine

[Twins1964]

Better chance of pigs flying than FO making those moves. Would be horrible mistake to spend $$$$$$ like that versus operating like Tampa Bay does.

[Mike Sixel]

Very sound analysis. Those Twins fans clamoring for Cole, Strasburg etc are going to be disappointed. Dodgers annual massive payroll good example $$$$ doesn’t guarantee a World Series appearance or win.FO 2020 moves will be much more in line with your thoughts. The Pohlad bashers are emotional louts. Twins FO approach of building infrastructure and trying to develop every player to the best of his ability is logical and cost effective. For reasonable Twins fans the FO game plan may create a period of regular season success and a competitive post season team.

So it's reasonable that the owners get to keep more profits, and pay the people who actually entertain you less? Or was that not your point?

 

Also, there is not a better way to be a fan than another way....

[Mike Sixel]

Better chance of pigs flying than FO making those moves. Would be horrible mistake to spend $$$$$$ like that versus operating like Tampa Bay does.

Entry team would love to be Tampa, only one has figured out how. Why would it be a mistake to spend revenue in the actual players?

[mitcho8]

I like the idea of signing two free agent pitchers (Cole, Strasburg, Wheeler, Bumgarner, Ryu, Keuchel) but each of those would require 4+ year commitments. One of them cratering would be bad, but both would be disastrous. True, it's not my money, but it would be a drag to watch this team founder two years down the road because they have $55mil wrappped up in two guys and they "can't" make moves as a result.

 

Therefore, I'd say sign one of those guys, extend the QO to Odorizzi, and target a pre-arb or early arb guy via trade. I haven't done a ton of research, but maybe a guy like Julio Arias (arb) or Brandon Woodruff or Joe Musgrove ( both pre-arb) would be available.

 

My rotation would be (and I hate putting names to these exercises):

 

Gerrit Cole $35mil

Julio Urias $1.7mil

Jose Berrios $5.4mil 

Jake Odorizzi $18mil

Internal Candidate $600k

 

I would offer Urias and Berrios the Severino/Blake Snell deal (4-5 years, $10mil per AAV), the first to accept gets it.

[wabene]

 

Can we stop penciling Graterol into the 5th starter role for the Twins rotation? The probability of him starting with the Twins has to be under 5%. He hasn't pitched more then 102 innings in any season, so his max will probably be around 150 next season and he has a total of 5.1 innings at AAA. He's going to start in AAA so they can manage him innings pitched so he'll be available for the post season if the Twins make it there next season.

 

 

I don't see them wasting his bullets in AAA. He's already pitched in the playoffs. If we sign Pineda I see the best course is to use Graterol as a starter to cover for Pineda, then he goes to the pen for the remainder of the season. His role as a starter could be a sort of hybrid/ 5th starter/opener. Let's fire those nasty bullets in the bigs!