Front Page: A Stab at the Twins Postseason Roster 2.0

[Ted Schwerzler]

We’re now in the final week of the 2019 regular season. Minnesota will be putting a bow on their 2019 AL Central Division title and they’ll turn their attention to the postseason. New York and Houston look like they’ll battle for the best record until the final day, but it’s certainly The Bronx that the Twins should prefer. No matter where they go to kick off October baseball, being back in the hunt should be plenty exciting in and of itself.I took a look at how I’d construct the 25-man roster for the ALDS earlier this month, and now there’ve been some significant changes that make a shuffle more than necessary. Barring any further injuries, this is the group that I’d suggest go to war with Rocco Baldelli.

 

Catchers (2): Jason Castro, Mitch Garver

Changes: None

 

There’s been no developments here to suggest a change makes any sense. The Twins have had the most productive catching tandem in baseball, and Mitch Garver has hit like a man possessed for another significant stretch. He left a game this weekend with a hip impingement, but it sounds like some quick rest should be enough to get him over the hump. They’ll be locked in and ready to go both at the plate, and behind it, no matter who Minnesota faces.

 

Infield (6): C.J. Cron, Luis Arraez, Jonathan Schoop, Jorge Polanco, Marwin Gonzalez, Miguel Sano

Changes: Ehire Adrianza out with an oblique injury

 

Unfortunately for the Twins, they lost a versatile asset when Ehire Adrianza pulled an oblique muscle. There has been talk that he would hope to not miss the rest of the season, but time is running out and those things don’t typically heal in a quick fashion. Arraez and Gonzalez give Baldelli plenty of flexibility on their own, and Luis having pushed his way into the starting role allows for some thump out of Schoop’s bat off the bench.

 

It is worth noting that Rocco Baldelli mentioned Adrianza looking good, but he's "not sure if he's close to being ready to play." I'd imagine Ehire would need game action this week to be included. If he is, Jake Cave could be the odd man out with the Twins opting for non-traditional outfielders in relief. That does seem like a pretty big long shot.

 

Outfield (4): Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, LaMonte Wade, Jake Cave

Changes: Byron Buxton done with labrum surgery, and Ian Miller left out

There’s no replacing a guy like Byron Buxton, and the Twins have had to grapple with that reality for weeks now. He’s not going to be there defensively for a pitching staff that loves him, and his bat is now out of the lineup as well. Minnesota added Miller to the 40-man roster as a speed guy off the bench, but it’s Wade that may have forced him out. LaMonte has gotten healthy and takes as good at-bats as stud Luis Arraez. Recently writing up a speciality Minnesota will need to pick for the postseason, it’s probably Wade’s on base skills that outweigh an additional 90 feet on a stolen base.

 

Over the final week of the season the Twins will want to get both Kepler and Cave back going again. They’ve dealt with injury, have sprinkled in some playing time, but also need to work in routine at-bats. Eddie trending upwards is a positive development at this time of year, and if he can continue to shrink his zone then opposing pitchers will have a much tougher time exploiting his weaknesses.

 

Designated Hitter (1): Nelson Cruz

Changes: None

 

No surprise here, Mr. Boomstick is the living embodiment of the Fountain of Youth. 400 dingers to his credit, and 40 at the age of 39, the Twins are enjoying one of the greatest seasons from a free agent ever. He’s coming back next year at a reduced rate and there should be ample opportunity for him to make an impact on and off the field in the postseason.

 

Rotation (3): Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Randy Dobnak

Changes: Michael Pineda was handed a PED suspension, Martin Perez has been ineffective and moved to the pen

 

You probably need four starters for a postseason series unless you’ve got an elite arm or two. Unfortunately for the Twins they have two guys that they’d be expected to turn to, and a complete wild card. Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi are locks, although they’ll need the former to be the best version of himself. An additional starter is up in the air, but I like the proposal of Randy Dobnak. He’s been great for Minnesota in 2019 and the unfamiliarity for opposing hitters could be to his benefit.

 

A lefty doesn’t make a ton of sense given the strength both Houston and New York have on that side of the plate. Dobnak could pitch game two allowing the Twins to utilize their bullpen more aggressively before the scheduled day off. If Baldelli’s squad can steal a win on the road, or return home having yet to lose, they’d be sitting pretty when attempting to advance to the ALCS.

 

Bullpen (9): Taylor Rogers, Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Zack Littell, Brusdar Graterol, Kyle Gibson, Cody Stashak, Martin Perez

Changes: Dyson is done for the year, Gibson, Stashak, and Perez all added

 

The first six names of this group seem like obvious locks to me. They represent the core of a group that has been very, very good in the second half. It’s the last three that are more uncertain but they each seem to fill a need.

 

Kyle Gibson has struggled significantly with his health, and then his production because of it, down the stretch. If the Twins deem him healthy though, it makes a good amount of sense to have him as a presence in the pen and a veteran arm ready to go. Should he be deemed unhealthy, that’s probably a spot for Lewis Thorpe, or an opportunity to squeak someone like Willians Astudillo onto the bench.

 

Stashak has been nothing short of dominant in his time with the Twins, and while he’d be throwing on the biggest stage yet, the stuff has played. Needing another lefty, it's the starter Perez who comes into play. Despite his ineffectiveness, he's still been strong against lefties and has worked in relief before. Initially expected to be a part of the 2020 plans, he still probably gets a chance in the Postseason.

A roster of 12 pitchers and 13 hitters is the split that Baldelli should find solace in. Nick looked at the pen options yesterday and came up with 12 openings as well. Here’s to hoping for a clean bill of health over the final week, and smooth sailing so that optimal decisions can be made. Minnesota has been forced into enough change due to unfortunate circumstances thus far. Adding to that this close to the October run isn’t something anyone should want to deal with.

 

What would your final roster for October look like? Where do you differ and what do you agree on? Share your thoughts below.

 

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[D.C Twins]

If any of us had suggested on TD even 2 months ago that Randy Dobnak would be a near-consensus #3 starter in the playoffs, all warning points would have been bypassed and we would have just been kicked right off the site for cause...

 

Twins baseball this year has been many things, but never boring!

 

Time to have some fun just enjoying that we are going to have some postseason play!

 

Let's GO!

[nater79a]

Two words...

Devin. Smeltzer.

[yarnivek1972]

I’d say Stashak is more a lock than Graterol.

 

I’d also say Smeltzer is more likely than Perez or Gibson, neither of whom has looked good for weeks.

[MNT1996]

Yeah Perez shouldn't be on the post season roster. Add Smeltzer instead.

[Bomba2026]

Why does Baldelli hate Smeltzer so much? Because he gave up a couple of homeruns? Like no one else did on this team? The Duffer is our new closer and the Dobber is a starter. Let the rest take numbers and get in line.

[Richard Swerdlick]

Who cannot help but admire the amazing life story of Smeltzer. However to me he looks like the 2nd coming of Tommy Milone.  He might play well in a short stint against unfamiliar hitters, but......   I like both Stashak and Graterol for the post season roster.

[wabene]

I say no to Perez. After a terrible start recently he was asked about his struggles and he acted like he did just fine. Probably a good guy but I don't think he has the right mentality. Smeltz or Thorpe take your pick otherwise you got it right. I've been on board with a Berrios, Dobnak/bullpen, Odo, bullpen, Berrios playoff rotation but I'm starting to think Odo and Berrios should be flipped. Odo while he's not going eight he just seems more reliable.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Torreyes has barely played, but I'd think he might have a shot too as another true shortstop to back up Polanco. However, there's not an obvious player whose spot he'd take from this roster - so maybe not.

[yarnivek1972]

Torreyes has barely played, but I'd think he might have a shot too as another true shortstop to back up Polanco. However, there's not an obvious player whose spot he'd take from this roster - so maybe not.

I think they keep him traveling with the team in case of injury, but not on the roster.

[rdehring]

Agree with the 12, Ted.  But would flip Stashak and Graterol with Stashak being the lock.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

I don’t think it’s unreasonable that there would be one less outfielder and 13 pitchers with Thorpe or Smeltzer being included. They will need all the pitching they can get.

[yarnivek1972]

I don’t think it’s unreasonable that there would be one less outfielder and 13 pitchers with Thorpe or Smeltzer being included. They will need all the pitching they can get.

Smeltzer will be for sure. Thorpe is doubtful.

 

IMO of course.

[gunnarthor]

The last few in the pen probably don't matter. If we need Graterol to pitch, we're already in trouble. I think Gibby in the pen makes sense.

 

The lineup looks right to me.

[yarnivek1972]

The last few in the pen probably don't matter. If we need Graterol to pitch, we're already in trouble. I think Gibby in the pen makes sense.

 

The lineup looks right to me.

I honestly don’t know how anyone that has seen these two guys pitch over the last 3 weeks can make this statement. Exactly what situation would you feel more comfortable using Gibson than Graterol?

[justinone]

Can I just say I love that we are talking about postseason rosters!

 

I agree with most of this roster proposal, but I have a couple possible changes. I am concerned that Garver's hip flares up again at some point. I wouldn't want to IL him and lose him for the next series--especially if he were able to pinch hit but not catch. Why not add Astudillo as insurance? So that would leave Perez out for this first series, but maybe he could added be added if we advance. Similarly I think Smeltzer finds his way onto a roster, but maybe not the ALDS?

[jmlease1]

I think right now we're seeing whether or not Gibson in the 'pen makes sense, and if he can't hold up or be effective he gets left off the roster in round 1 in favor of someone like Smeltzer or Thorpe (both of whom gives you another LHP option)

 

I think 13 position players and 12 pitchers is the right mix.

 

Agree on the position players; I just don't see room for Astudillo on this roster. While his positional flexibility gives him value, his lack of control of the strike zone throws it all away. He's just not hitting. Not this week, not last week, not last month...not since March/April. I'd much rather have LaMonte Wade as an option; his approach at the plate is valuable in the postseason and I think he's overall more reliable defensively than Cave. Cave is the bubble guy for me if Adrianza is healthy enough to play, I'm afraid. Cave's defense is a little shaky, Adrianza has actually been a better hitter (and is a switch hitter) and I'm more than comfortable putting Marwin in the OF.

[yarnivek1972]

Has there been any update on Kepler?

 

I would think he would need at least 10-12 ABs this week to shake off the rust.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

Who cannot help but admire the amazing life story of Smeltzer. However to me he looks like the 2nd coming of Tommy Milone.  He might play well in a short stint against unfamiliar hitters, but......   I like both Stashak and Graterol for the post season roster.

If Smeltzer is Milone, can we really argue with that?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yeah Perez shouldn't be on the post season roster. Add Smeltzer instead.

Yep. I don't want any lefty facing the Yankees but if I have to choose between Smeltzer and Perez, I choose Smeltzer every time.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Not enough length in the pen for me.  Assume you get 6 from Berrios, 5 from Odorizzi, and 4 from Dobnak.  Unless there's a sweep, you'll then need 9 innings in Game 4--add it up and you're looking at a minimum of 19 innings from your bullpen (losing the first two on the road in non-walkoff fashion, no extra innings).  That 19 innings comes in only 5 days, so asking Rogers, Romo, Duffey, May, or Littell to pitch more than 2 innings each starts getting dicey, as it would mean either a multi-inning outing, or pitching 3 times in 5 days with a back-to-back comprising two of those outings.

 

This leaves us with 4 pitchers who would need to cover at minimum 9 innings.  If Perez and Gibson each take 3, then that's only 3 innings left for the last two guys--but that assumes A) Gibson and Perez can make it three innings, and B ) no game goes into extra innings.  Those seem like two big gambles to me when you could easily put Smeltzer or Thorpe on the roster instead of a 7th guy who covers an inning at a time.  In that scenario, I prefer Brusdar's stuff over Stashak against the Astros or Yankees.

Edited September 25, 2019 by Cap'n Piranha

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I leave Perez off postseason roster. Cannot leave Tortuga off post season roster, to valuable with roster flexibility, and his knack for clutch hitting. There is no way you leave Willians Austudillo off the playoff roster.

 

Um, Willians in 15 high leverage PA's this season has a .690 OPS with an 86 wRC+, and has made soft contact 42.9% of the time.

[Puckett34]

If they plan on having 2 traditional starters (Berrios/Odorizzi), bullpenning 2 starts, Berrios/Odorizzi for a 2nd start for game 5. I'd rather have Smeltzer instead of one of Perez/Gibson. Probably would swap out Perez, just for lefty for a lefty's sake. Then plan on stacking Smeltzer on one of the bullpen games.

 

But I'm just rambling.

[Andrew Thares]

I could roll with this lineup. I think the biggest question for me right now is do I trust Gibson and Perez with the ball in their hands. I think between, Gibson, Perez, Smeltzer and Thorpe, two make the roster and two are watching from their couches like the rest of us.

[nicksaviking]

If it's the Yankees I don't see any need for Perez or Thorpe. The Yankees left handed hitters are their least feared batters (Yeah, it's relative, all the Yankees hitters are smoking hot). You aren't going to LOOGY Gardner and Gregorious when it's the other 7 hitters you are most concerned with.

 

I could understand the decision to bring Perez/Thorpe more against the Astros as Brantley and Alvarez tend to bat in the heart of the order and with a right hander batting between them.

[yarnivek1972]

If it's the Yankees I don't see any need for Perez or Thorpe. The Yankees left handed hitters are their least feared batters (Yeah, it's relative, all the Yankees hitters are smoking hot). You aren't going to LOOGY Gardner and Gregorious when it's the other 7 hitters you are most concerned with.

 

I could understand the decision to bring Perez/Thorpe more against the Astros as Brantley and Alvarez tend to bat in the heart of the order and with a right hander batting between them.

So, you’re strategy is to just let these guys beat you? Why? Gregarious maybe not loogy, but definitely Gardner who has a considerable split. I would absolutely loogy Gardner. If the Twins had a good one. But they don’t. Not on the active roster, anyway.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

It is so nice not to be discussing who the Twins will take with the 3rd overall pick in next June's draft.

[GAC]

I agree with people saying to place Smeltzer on pitching roster over Perez or Gibson.  I just have more faith in Smeltzer to consistently pitch in the strike zone. 

I also think there needs to be a way to put Astudillo on the roster, probably over Cave.  Astudillo has proven he is able to play 1B, 3B, RF, and very importantly - serve as a 3rd catcher (think of injuries, etc). 

Also, he seems much more likely to at least put the ball in play including in the clutch, pinch hitting, or in the lineup, than Cave or Castro.  Both seem to have very high strike out rates, especially in the clutch.  Astudillo almost never strikes out.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yep. I don't want any lefty facing the Yankees but if I have to choose between Smeltzer and Perez, I choose Smeltzer every time.

 

I haven't looked at their roster, but are you saying they're exclusively RH as a team? Perez has been pretty dominant against lefties. I'd be fine letting him be on the roster for that Role so that Rodgers can take a late inning against the heart of their order. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So, you’re strategy is to just let these guys beat you? Why? Gregarious maybe not loogy, but definitely Gardner who has a considerable split. I would absolutely loogy Gardner. If the Twins had a good one. But they don’t. Not on the active roster, anyway.

I posted in the other thread, but O'Rourke didn't fare well vs Gardner in 2015 (1 hit and two walks in 3 PAs).

 

And the alternative to not LOOGYing isn't to let them beat you -- I also noted that May and Duffey are about as effective (by wOBA) vs LHB this year as O'Rourke is for his MLB career. You can deploy May and Duffey (and of course Rogers) over those LHB spots, if you want, and get equal or perhaps better effectiveness than O'Rourke -- and they can even stay in to face more than 1 batter, or be useful in other game situations too.

 

Perez has been more effective than O'Rourke vs Gardner for sure -- only 2 hits and 1 HBP in 11 PA, with 3 K's. So he could be a LOOGY matchup option for him, if necessary, in addition to being capable of eating some innings in other situations. (Gregorious has 2 HR in 10 PA vs Perez, though -- maybe a matchup to avoid?)

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?request=1&submitter=1&pitcher=perezma02&min_year_game=2012&max_year_game=2019&post=1&opp_id=NYY&bats=L&c1gtlt=gt&c2gtlt=gt&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc