Front Page: Twins Game Recap (8/21): Giolito Throws Complete Game as Sox Take Series

[theBOMisthebomb]

It was a boring game to attend. Watching the other team's pitcher dominate is not fun in my book. I know we are supposed to be good baseball fans and carry on about how great pitching is more entertaining than good hitting. Maybe so and 1-0 pitcher's duel can be entertaining - that I agree with. Getting your doors blown off with no exciting plays is a drag. Oh well, a day at the ballpark is still better than being at the office.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

O faithless Squirrel!  Thy perfidy!

[howeda7]

They need to get Kepler out of the lead-off spot. The offense will always look great when the Bomba show is on, but when it's not you still need to manufacture runs. Put Arreaz in the lead-off spot and drop Kepler to 4th. 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

 

They need to get Kepler out of the lead-off spot. The offense will always look great when the Bomba show is on, but when it's not you still need to manufacture runs. Put Arreaz in the lead-off spot and drop Kepler to 4th. 

 

As fantastic as Mad Max is, we are not getting the best we could from him in the number one spot.  He swings at a good number of first balls.  Often the results are gratifying but there are also a large number of leadoff outs that were never worked as opportunities to go deep in the count for walk (now 53 in 468 AB) as well as a hit. 

 

This shows up in his .334 OBP, 11th on the team behind names like Adrianza, Arraez, Cave and Polanco, players he could push around the base paths .

 

Kepler is second on team now in RBI (84) to Rosario (85).  Imagine where that number might be if he was in the 3rd or 4th spot.  How many of his 34 HR are solo shots? We are cheating ourselves.

Edited August 22, 2019 by VivaBomboRivera!

[MVP Nick Punto]

Actual footage of Giolito pitching to the Twins 20190821:

[SwainZag]

 

Imagine the audacity of a manager letting a young fragile 25 year-old pitcher, with already 80 pitches after 7 and throwing a 2 hit shutout with only 8 Ks...... finish the game! What is he thinking, letting his young pitcher develop his stamina and have the opportunity to pitch a complete game and use 115 pitches, against a 1st place team? Can it possibly be worth it? I mean, does the confidence developed really mean anything? He will get a chance for a complete game shutout often, right?

 

Note: Our guy, Jose Berrios, pitching a 2 hit shutout with 11Ks, was pulled after 7 innings and 83 pitches against the last place Marlins. He has gotten shelled twice, and struggled the other outing, since. Can confidence really be a thing? 

 

Twins were up 7-0 after 7 against one of the worst offenses in the league.  Why try and overuse Berrios when they don't need to?  A CGSO is nice, but in the long run, save that arm.  

[VivaBomboRivera!]

 

Actual footage of Giolito pitching to the Twins 20190821...

 

Gotta tip your cap to a pitching performance like that.  Then you resolve to stick him next time.

 

The hard lesson from this game is that pitching (or lack thereof) is what most consistently wins games, more so late- and post-season.  Our staff has to improve from "good" to "good enough."

[Number3]

At least the Twins improved in the RLISP category. No point in nit picking at this stage of the season. Just keep playing and see what happens. The Twins will finish where they are supposed to finish. I would like to see Marwin in the lineup more often. The time to keep everyone fresh is over. Play the best lineup every game. Say what you want but Twins played the best prior to Sano's return with Gonzales at third base. Jake got bad breaks in the first with routine grounders finding their way into the outfield and Schoop missing the bag. Wouldn't have made any difference but it did give Giolito early breathing room.

[KidBro]

 

I don’t think the Twins will need to worry about a second starter in the playoffs.

 

Self Depriavation COL (chuckle out loud) 

[SpicyGarvSauce]

The easier easy part of the schedule is coming. Just wait.

 

I think.

[Aerodeliria]

Giolito is not going to pitch like this every single time out, but he is going to pitch like this sometimes because he's a very good pitcher. I have no problem with today's game. This happens to every team during the year against good pitchers. Monday's game on the other hand......

[Cap'n Piranha]

The difference between May and Duffey being options 2A and 2B, and May and Duffey being options 4A and 4B is absolutely massive.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Giolito did exactly what an "Ace" is supposed to do. A rubber match and he took the ball and made sure the opposing team knew who was in control. The Twins do not have that pitcher.

Which teams have that guy(s):

Cleveland

Houston

LA

That's exactly why the Twins are still favored to win the division but the Indians are favored to advance further into the playoffs.

 

According to Fangraphs, the Twins have a better chance than the Indians to make the playoffs (97.8 to 81.5), make the ALDS (89.1 to 51.8), make the ALCS (36.4 to 20.7), make the World Series (15.0 to 9.1), and win the World Series (7.2 to 4.6).

[Otto von Ballpark]

According to Fangraphs, the Twins have a better chance than the Indians to make the playoffs (97.8 to 81.5), make the ALDS (89.1 to 51.8), make the ALCS (36.4 to 20.7), make the World Series (15.0 to 9.1), and win the World Series (7.2 to 4.6).

Those odds are all based on each other. If you are less likely to make the playoffs than another team, or less likely to make it as a division champ as opposed to a wild card, your subsequent odds of making the next round will be lower too, even if both teams are technically projected to identical future performance.

 

So the poster could be correct that the Indians could be favored to advance more than the Twins assuming they both enter in equal position/circumstance.

 

That said, I'm not sure what evidence suggests Cleveland would be favored to advance, even if we normalized the other factors (current record/schedule, division vs wild card). I don't know of any source that publishes such odds. It could be someone's opinion, though.

Edited August 22, 2019 by spycake

[laloesch]

 

Giolito did exactly what an "Ace" is supposed to do. A rubber match and he took the ball and made sure the opposing team knew who was in control. The Twins do not have that pitcher.

Which teams have that guy(s):

Cleveland

Houston

LA

That's exactly why the Twins are still favored to win the division but the Indians are favored to advance further into the playoffs.

 

Yep and the Twins could have drafted him.

[h2oface]

 

Twins were up 7-0 after 7 against one of the worst offenses in the league.  Why try and overuse Berrios when they don't need to?  A CGSO is nice, but in the long run, save that arm.  

 

And how is that working out for Jose since? You know, he was kept in the blowout worst game of his career for a merciless 97 pitches the next game against Atlanta to get shelled for 9 earned. Seems a bit inconsistent..... the saving the arm thing. Two games in a row with reverse confidence bolstering (now 4), no? Confidence. The silent factor.

Edited August 22, 2019 by h2oface

[lukeduke1980]

 

The difference between May and Duffey being options 2A and 2B, and May and Duffey being options 4A and 4B is absolutely massive.

Duffey has moved up to 3-B IMHO, maybe 3A until he throws hangs his next curveball

[LVTwinsfan]

Starting Sept 3, 3 at Boston then 6 at home vs Cleveland then Washington., then to Cleveland for 3 more. Those 12 games are what makes or breaks the Twins this season

[h2oface]

 

Starting Sept 3, 3 at Boston then 6 at home vs Cleveland then Washington., then to Cleveland for 3 more. Those 12 games are what makes or breaks the Twins this season

 

Seems that taking care of business against the bottom of the Central at home (and away) is very key as well. 

[h2oface]

Come on....... Giolito didn't pitch that well! It was just the Twins didn't get any hits this day. 

Edited August 22, 2019 by h2oface

[LVTwinsfan]

Seems that taking care of business against the bottom of the Central at home (and away) is very key as well.

yes an absolute must, and I believe the Twins will do that. For some reason they have a hard time at home, so just keep winning on the road and they’ll be fine, yet they need to at least break even at home

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Those odds are all based on each other. If you are less likely to make the playoffs than another team, or less likely to make it as a division champ as opposed to a wild card, your subsequent odds of making the next round will be lower too, even if both teams are technically projected to identical future performance.

So the poster could be correct that the Indians could be favored to advance more than the Twins assuming they both enter in equal position/circumstance.

That said, I'm not sure what evidence suggests Cleveland would be favored to advance, even if we normalized the other factors (current record/schedule, division vs wild card). I don't know of any source that publishes such odds. It could be someone's opinion, though.

 

As I understand it, that is incorrect.  When predicting playoff odds, the data is input, and then simulations are run.  Based on the numbers I gave above, if 1,000 simulations are run, the Twins made the playoffs in 974 of those simulations (883, 336, 149, and 73 for the other rounds, compared to 824, 524, 216, 91, and 44).  As to whether Cleveland is more likely to advance given the same position as the Twins, that is slightly true based on reaching the division series (38.1% to LCS, 16.9% to WS, 8.3% win WS for Twins, 41.2%, 17.4%, 8.4% for Cleveland), but flips back to the Twins favor for reaching both subsequent series.

[Mr. Brooks]

Giolito is not going to pitch like this every single time out, but he is going to pitch like this sometimes because he's a very good pitcher. I have no problem with today's game. This happens to every team during the year against good pitchers. Monday's game on the other hand......

But we'll be facing almost exclusively good pitchers if we make the playoffs.

[Otto von Ballpark]

As I understand it, that is incorrect. When predicting playoff odds, the data is input, and then simulations are run. Based on the numbers I gave above, if 1,000 simulations are run, the Twins made the playoffs in 974 of those simulations (883, 336, 149, and 73 for the other rounds, compared to 824, 524, 216, 91, and 44). As to whether Cleveland is more likely to advance given the same position as the Twins, that is slightly true based on reaching the division series (38.1% to LCS, 16.9% to WS, 8.3% win WS for Twins, 41.2%, 17.4%, 8.4% for Cleveland), but flips back to the Twins favor for reaching both subsequent series.

I don't think anything I said was incorrect, but we might be misunderstanding each other. Fangraphs may run a bunch of simulations to get those odds -- but the data input to those simulations already contains advantages for the Twins -- namely, more regular season wins so far, and an easier remaining schedule. Those advantages are reflected in both the playoff qualification odds, and the odds of advancement (primarily because we can qualify in a better position to advance as a division champ vs a wild card).

 

So each of those odds is based on the others in the chain -- for example, Fangraphs gives the Tigers a 0% chance to advance to the ALCS, because they are already 0% to make to postseason. But I think the other poster could be talking about an "all else being equal" hypothetical comparison. Hypothetically, if the Tigers could qualify like the Twins hopefully will, their chances for advancement would be higher than zero -- although these Tigers might still be pretty close to 0%.

 

So we can't necessarily use the Fangraphs chained odds to conclude that the Twins are more likely to advance than Cleveland, *all else being equal*. Of course, we can't conclude the opposite either. And in reality, all else isn't equal, and the Twins are currently more likely to win the division, and thus already have an advantage toward potential advancement.

Edited August 22, 2019 by spycake

[Aerodeliria]

 

But we'll be facing almost exclusively good pitchers if we make the playoffs.

...and if they pitch like Giolito did today, the Twins will be in trouble unless they can up the level of their game to match it.