Front Page: Twins Ride the Wave, Trade Splash Still Pending

[Ted Schwerzler]

The dust surrounding the 2019 Major League Baseball trade deadline has all but settled. The Minnesota Twins were linked to every available name, and needing help in the pen more than any other area, they ended their pursuit acquiring Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson. For some, the notable development at the end of July was the names that didn’t move, and specifically Minnesota’s lack on an “all-in” type acquisition. Patience isn’t easy here, but it is the blueprint successful teams have followed.Two avenues exist when it comes to acquiring external talent in baseball. After you’ve developed your own players, bringing in reinforcements requires some sort of capital. Organizations can decide if that’s done through a cash transaction on the free agent market, or if it makes more sense to utilize a farm system and explore a swap including prospect capital. The Twins have now been presented with opportunities to go down both paths in the past calendar year and have taken neither thus far. That decision looms but isn’t yet one they should be criticized for not making.

 

Prior to 2018 theTwins' front office offered a $100 million contract to former Texas Rangers ace Yu Darvish. It went terribly in year one with the Chicago Cubs for the 31-year-old, and aside from the current stretch of strength, year two has followed a similar path. Bullet dodged or otherwise, Darvish was representative of a free agent ace that Minnesota pursued. The second path came in the form of a controllable starter. The ask for Marcus Stroman was both top Twins prospects, while the Mets wanted Byron Buxton to headline a return for Thor. Both of those proposals were intelligently declined, but the conversations are indicative of the timing trending right.

 

Looking at the 2019 season so far, it’s fair to suggest that the Twins push all their chips forward. That notion would be shortsighted however and effectively negate much of the strong foundation built by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. The AL Central is a poor division, and Minnesota is on a collision course with 100 wins, but opportunity doesn’t seem to be tied solely to the current season. Postseason baseball is about good teams getting hot and spurning a consistent seasons-long run for the sake of an impulse buy doesn’t seem a smart move.

 

Blueprints designed by good teams like the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros are often referenced when hoping for that next World Series trophy. It’s in truly understanding how those teams were built that outlines a process Minnesota can follow.

 

Joe Maddon took over as Cubs manager in 2015. He was coming to an organization that had the fifth best farm system in baseball the year prior and was ready to take the next step. The North-Siders won 97 games that year (good enough for just third in the NL Central) en route to an appearance in the NLCS. They were swept in four games by the New York Mets and had a winter to mull things over. A 63-41 record at the 2016 trade deadline saw them get better as they swung a massive trade to nab Aroldis Chapman from the Yankees for Gleyber Torres. That team went on to win 103 games and take the World Series by a tally of four games to three. They have won 90+ games in the two years since and are well positioned for a fifth straight postseason in 2019.

 

Houston went from Bo Porter to A.J. Hinch prior to the 2015 season. Hinch joined an organization coming off a 92-loss season, but with the third best farm system in baseball. The Astros popped up with an ALDS defeat following an 86-win campaign in his first year. 2016 was a slight step back winning just 84 games, and then 2017 opportunity knocked again. Owning a 69-36 record with a mature big-league roster, Jeff Lunhow struck a trade to acquire Justin Verlander. Houston won 101 games and the World Series in 2017. Another big move was made that winter when Gerrit Cole was netted from the Pirates, and Houston turned their 103-win season into an ALCS defeat. During 2019 the Astros look like the odds-on favorites in the American League.

 

In both of those examples we can see a successful organization making an impact move. Neither of them did so prior to a strong infrastructure being in place, a level of consistency being established, and future benefit also being somewhat certain. Even after the Astros swung the third straight blockbuster, this year for Zack Greinke, they have just a 27.9% chance to win the World Series. Obviously, that’s exponentially more than most of the competition, but it still places them at less than a one in three opportunity. What that highlights is that banking on postseason success still involves a significant amount of luck.

 

Minnesota’s front office is still going to need to decide which avenue of player acquisition they’ll be committing to. There’s a good deal of roster turnover expected to take place over the offseason, and while the core remains intact, figuring out the key additions is a must. The Twins probably aren’t ever going to be able to outspend the competition, and Gerrit Cole is likely the only arm worthy of a big payday. They could absolutely swing a big trade though, and by showing patience this year they’ll have the assets necessary at a much more opportune time.

 

Rocco Baldelli will return as an established manager next season, his support system will remain strong, and Minnesota will have aspirations raised substantially higher than they were entering the 2019 season. Assuming everything follows suit, it’s year two in a window of prolonged contention that a dive into the deep end should be explored. Hoarding prospects is great until the system bears fruit, but then graduating or utilizing them to extend a championship window as long as possible becomes the focus. Being a team like the Astros or Cubs is far more fulfilling for a fanbase than the prospects of a pop-up title and years back in the doldrums (a la Kansas City).

 

The time is coming for the big splash. It wasn’t this summer, but it very well may be the next.

 

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[Patrick Wozniak]

Very well put! I agree that the Twins have been prudent in building this team. They have a chance to be competitive for the next several years and they did a nice job of adding key free agents to the core for this year. I'm okay with them not making a huge splash at the trade deadline. I trust the FO to make a deal without doing anything to greatly harm the future. It will be interesting to see how they add starting pitching this off season.

[Rosterman]

The Twins will be losing 6-8 names alone to free agency. They have upwards of 15 players to consider for 40-man roster spots, the kicker being will any of the guys they NEED to roster contribute to the team in 2020. Right now, you basically have Gordon, Wade, Gonsalves, Romero taking up 40-man space without getting any or much of an oipportunity with the 2019 team. Will they all be back, because......? Yet the Twins will need 2 or 3 or maybe 4 arms in the rotation. They are getting a looksee, albeit in the bullpen, of some future arms: Poppen, Stashak, Stewart, Smeltzer, Thorpe. Are there sleepers in the wings to push apst even these guys (Jax, Braterol). 

 

I do feel the Twins LOST a big opportunity at the trade deadline. Would I have traded Buxton for Sven? Well, not sure what negotiations for a contract extension are like, although the Twins still have at least three more seasons of Buxton with Krillioff in the wings.

 

But, right now, feeling THAT need for another starter. 

[jkcarew]

Who are the starting pitchers extending this window into 2020 and beyond? We going to have 4 rookie of the year candidates in the next two years in Thorpe, Graterol, Duran, and Balazovic? Interesting plan.

 

 

[Minny505]

I'm so confused by this early paragraph and it distracted me the whole way thru the article:

"Organizations can decide if that’s done through a cash transaction on the free agent market, or if it makes more sense to utilize a farm system and explore a swap including prospect capital. The Twins have now been presented with opportunities to go down both paths in the past calendar year and have taken neither thus far"

 

I feel like Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzales, Jonathan Schoop, CJ Cron, Martin Perez and Blake Parker were literally added to the roster "through a cash transaction on the free agent market...in the past calendar year." (You can pick nits on Cron, but it's close enough)

 

Am I misunderstanding your statement Ted?

[gunnarthor]

This is just a PR piece for ownership/FO. The players and fans have constantly been lied to about when the team will push their chips in. Rosario is 27, Kepler 26, Buxton 25. This isn't a young team anymore. They were nearly a playoff team in 2015, fighting the Astros to the last series of the season while bringing up impact rookies like Sano and Buxton. And they were a playoff team in 2017. This waiting for the window to open is just excuse making.

 

We started Perez today b/c the FO didn't improve the rotation despite multiple different ways to do so. We're bringing up something called Randy Dobnak b/c the FO didn't improve the bullpen. Teams that want to win made moves. We didn't. We'll probably still win the central but Cleveland made moves that helped them this year and in the future. We couldn't figure out how to do that. It wasn't because we have a FO that's playing four dimensional chess - the Pressly trade should dissuade anyone from thinking that - they didn't do anything b/c they couldn't figure out a way to do it.

[DocBauer]

Outstanding OP, Ted!

 

For me, IMO, I was very happy with the moves the Twins made...with the OBVIOUS caveat I want a healthy and productive Dyson ASAP! Some might claim I am "Pollyanna" in regard to the roster and a sense of hoarding prospects, but that is not the case at all. Just as the Cubs and Astros made key moves at key times, I believe the Twins are ready, or nearly ready to do so.

 

This is NOT the time and place to debate options, more or less, or earlier FA for players, etc. It's about the reality if the system in place and how it works. Over the past few seasons, the majority of MLB teams have combined history with analytics to change the face of the game when it comes to roster building and player acquisition:

 

1] I despise the term "tanking" in any sport as it has such a negative connotation. But the reality is, if your team truly has no chance to compete for playoffs or a championship, why not play younger, less expensive players, promote in a very aggressive fashion, and begin to develop what you have as quickly as possible. This leads to the BASE foundation of your team. We have also seen legal ways of manipulating the draft within baseball to acquire additional prospects. Trading veterans who won't be there when the franchise turns around is well established in all sports.

 

2] And this actually combines somewhat with my first point, the FA market has changed dramatically the past few years. Some guys still get big to huge paydays. But history has shown big, long term contracts often don't end up paying out in any equal proportion over time. (Big market teams can obviously still absorb these lost dollars much more so then mid or small market teams).

 

3] Combined with points 1 and 2, the value, or perceived value, of prospects, those a team has and those acquired, have risen in value as teams look for alternatives for a re-build, or to supplement a good team vs the over 30yr old FA route.

 

Despite a flash in 2017 that lead to a nice finish and a WC birth, and a disappointing 2018 that coulda/shoulda been better than it was, 2019 is the season when the fruits of labor and patience are just starting to really pay off for the Twins and the BASE they have been building. And for the most part, it is still a very young team. Meanwhile, in addition to development at the ML level, the FO has made a few smart and key moves while continuing to build one of the best milb systems around. (Along with coaching and approach changes).

 

This was the FIRST season with new deadline rules in place. A first for every team in contention, for every team believing they may be in contention, and for those teams out of contention. Despite the requisite rumors, very few BIG NAME players were actually moved. If rumors are to be believed, even to a cautious degree, there were a lot of high demands placed on proposed trades.

 

All that being not only said, but proven by the various changes we can clearly see happening, was this really the year for the Twins to throw caution to the wind? I think not.i think the FO made a pair of really smart moves to add to one of the best teams in MLB without sacrificing the near and impending future. I think they handled THIS season correctly.

 

And this team has a chance, make no mistake about it. And that's what you play for, in any sport, a real chance.

 

I dislike referring to players as "capital", but in proper context, they are. And when this next off season comes, the Twins have a ton of player capital to make a move or two to build up with. Of course, I want their crystal ball to work to the degree where they keep the very best options and trade away the ones that won't come back to haunt.

 

WAY TOO EARLY speculation, I'd say 50-50 roughly, maybe 60-40, the Twins will trade 4-5 prospects in their top 30 for a top rotation piece that is established, or maybe just primed to take the next step. I firmly believe at least 1 of our current rotation arms are back, and very possibly 2, on some sort of extension/1yr deal. Trade or FA possibly another BP arm. They will also, as they should, take on a couple of fliers.

 

But right now, I feel the "hoarding" of prospects in 2019...and I deliberately used quotes...was the correct move.

[DocBauer]

I'm so confused by this early paragraph and it distracted me the whole way thru the article:

"Organizations can decide if that’s done through a cash transaction on the free agent market, or if it makes more sense to utilize a farm system and explore a swap including prospect capital. The Twins have now been presented with opportunities to go down both paths in the past calendar year and have taken neither thus far"

 

I feel like Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzales, Jonathan Schoop, CJ Cron, Martin Perez and Blake Parker were literally added to the roster "through a cash transaction on the free agent market...in the past calendar year." (You can pick nits on Cron, but it's close enough)

 

Am I misunderstanding your statement Ted?

 

I also was confused by that comment and thought the same thing you did.

 

I don't want to speak for Ted, but IMO, he was referencing the previous Darvish situation, any other SP that may have been on the market last offseason...though memory doesn't recall many...as well as speculating for 2020 as well.

[Vanimal46]

This is just a PR piece for ownership/FO. The players and fans have constantly been lied to about when the team will push their chips in. Rosario is 27, Kepler 26, Buxton 25. This isn't a young team anymore. They were nearly a playoff team in 2015, fighting the Astros to the last series of the season while bringing up impact rookies like Sano and Buxton. And they were a playoff team in 2017. This waiting for the window to open is just excuse making.

 

We started Perez today b/c the FO didn't improve the rotation despite multiple different ways to do so. We're bringing up something called Randy Dobnak b/c the FO didn't improve the bullpen. Teams that want to win made moves. We didn't. We'll probably still win the central but Cleveland made moves that helped them this year and in the future. We couldn't figure out how to do that. It wasn't because we have a FO that's playing four dimensional chess - the Pressly trade should dissuade anyone from thinking that - they didn't do anything b/c they couldn't figure out a way to do it.

It's a beautiful thing when you have the power to move the goal posts one year into the future every year... Don't worry gunnarthor, 2020 is the year they'll make a big splash! If not, 2021 is definitely the year!

[Battle ur tail off]

I agree with you 2. It’s all bs and lip service. When has this organization gone all in? EVER? No they haven’t. What makes you think they will now next year? Guess what? Max Kepler ain’t hitting 40 bombs next year and you likely aren’t getting 30 out of your catcher spot either. Also having a 39 year old DH that is RAKING sure helps but shouldn’t be counted on for another season either. Things have fell right and the team has played well this year yet they still didn’t add.

 

Also, this article states Toronto wanted our top 2 prospects for Stroman. I highly doubt this is true as they settled for 2 guys that wouldn’t even make this organizations top 10.

[Linus]

This is just a PR piece for ownership/FO. The players and fans have constantly been lied to about when the team will push their chips in. Rosario is 27, Kepler 26, Buxton 25. This isn't a young team anymore. They were nearly a playoff team in 2015, fighting the Astros to the last series of the season while bringing up impact rookies like Sano and Buxton. And they were a playoff team in 2017. This waiting for the window to open is just excuse making.

 

We started Perez today b/c the FO didn't improve the rotation despite multiple different ways to do so. We're bringing up something called Randy Dobnak b/c the FO didn't improve the bullpen. Teams that want to win made moves. We didn't. We'll probably still win the central but Cleveland made moves that helped them this year and in the future. We couldn't figure out how to do that. It wasn't because we have a FO that's playing four dimensional chess - the Pressly trade should dissuade anyone from thinking that - they didn't do anything b/c they couldn't figure out a way to do it.

This. This a hundred times.

[USAFChief]

I don't understand how July 2019 was too early, but December 2019 will be perfect.

It seems to me the only thing different will be the 2019 season will be over. What else?

 

I also don't think that adding difference makers in MLB is like shopping on line at Amazon. You can't just wait until the perfect time to buy, there isn't an unlimited supply of the item you want.

 

I don't think Houston made a conscious decision to wait a year to buy Justin Verlander. I think when they did, they realized the opportunity to do so was rare and fleeting, and they better do what's necessary to complete the sale, because tomorrow there most likely won't be a Justin Verlander available for purchase.

 

I think they would have gladly made that purchase a year earlier, but they couldn't.

[Battle ur tail off]

Right because if you believe in the core you have right now, then you either add to it with players from outside your organization, or you use the guys that are being asked for in trades to help them out. 

 

I'm not 100% for signing Free Agents all the time for big deals by any means. But I do believe in trading prospects for proven players when the time is right. 

 

2006, 2010, and now 2019. These are the 3 years in the past 15 that this team has had a real chance to go for a WS. So far, no additions that makes anybody turn their heads. Also, if we can all recall, what happened to our teams after those seasons? Anyone remember?

 

I sure do. They MISSED the playoffs and were back to mediocrity for quite some time again. If their plan had worked, then those teams would have been able to sustain competitiveness right after those good seasons. In fact, they did NOT, so I don't see what the big hub-ub is/was with holding onto piles of these guys all the time, when we all know that there are weaknesses that needed to be addressed to give these teams a real shot to do well in the playoffs. 

Edited August 8, 2019 by Battle ur tail off

[Vanimal46]

I don't understand how July 2019 was too early, but December 2019 will be perfect.

 

It seems to me the only thing different will be the 2019 season will be over. What else?

 

I also don't think that adding difference makers in MLB is like shopping on line at Amazon. You can't just wait until the perfect time to buy, there isn't an unlimited supply of the item you want.

 

I don't think Houston made a conscious decision to wait a year to buy Justin Verlander. I think when they did, they realized the opportunity to do so was rare and fleeting, and they better do what's necessary to complete the sale, because tomorrow there most likely won't be a Justin Verlander available for purchase.

 

I think they would have gladly made that purchase a year earlier, but they couldn't.

Everything you typed makes perfect sense to me.

 

When the 2019 season is over, how can we reasonably predict the offense will be on a historic pace again?

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Everything you typed makes perfect sense to me.

When the 2019 season is over, how can we reasonably predict the offense will be on a historic pace again?

 

Exactly. This is an unprecedented season from our offense. The best in Twins history maybe. And you add 2 marginal BP guys. They should have been looking to add the best starter available and the best reliever available and fans should expect nothing less. 

[J_Dobs]

 

When the 2019 season is over, how can we reasonably predict the offense will be on a historic pace again?

 

This is the part that is frustrating for me, This was a year you know what you have and add to the team to make a play at a deep playoff run.

 

I get prices were "high" for starters. but what the use of all these prospects? How many of these "top" guys we had 2 years ago are now below the top 10. With our current crop we are going to have issues like the Rays if we keep them all.

 

Weeks before the deadline I was Ace or nothing. But after seeing asking prices I was ok with adding something being a upgrade. I would have been very happy if we would have gotten someone like Mike Minor, rumored price was a guy in the top 100 as the headliner. I was told by others that he screaming regression, but seeing him shutdown the Indians to the tone of 2 hits I would gladly welcome him to our rotations thats going to have 4 holes in it.

 

This offseason should be interesting, but I doubt the prices of these starters comes down, it harder to trade when "everyone has a shot" in the offseason. With this front office welcome 3 more Perez/Pineda type signings Yuck.

[SwainZag]

 

This is the part that is frustrating for me, This was a year you know what you have and add to the team to make a play at a deep playoff run.

 

I get prices were "high" for starters. but what the use of all these prospects? How many of these "top" guys we had 2 years ago are now below the top 10. With our current crop we are going to have issues like the Rays if we keep them all.

 

Weeks before the deadline I was Ace or nothing. But after seeing asking prices I was ok with adding something being a upgrade. I would have been very happy if we would have gotten someone like Mike Minor, rumored price was a guy in the top 100 as the headliner. I was told by others that he screaming regression, but seeing him shutdown the Indians to the tone of 2 hits I would gladly welcome him to our rotations thats going to have 4 holes in it.

 

This offseason should be interesting, but I doubt the prices of these starters comes down, it harder to trade when "everyone has a shot" in the offseason. With this front office welcome 3 more Perez/Pineda type signings Yuck.

 

If the price for Minor really was headlined by a single guy in the Top 100, he would have been dealt.

[J_Dobs]

If the price for Minor really was headlined by a single guy in the Top 100, he would have been dealt.

 

I believe your right, it was more so top 50 guy. Just speculation based on what I saw.

 

Edited August 8, 2019 by J_Dobs