Front Page: Trade Deadline Thread: How Do the Twins Respond to the Trevor Bauer Trade?

[SwainZag]

 

The Cleveland rotation should be fine without Bauer though...Salazar returns Thursday and Kluber is starting a rehab assignment shortly. They will probably be rusty but there is a decent chance they will be replacing 2019 Bauer with a pitcher a bit better than 0 WAR.

 

2020 might look something like Kluber, Clevinger, Bieber, Salazar, Carrasco/Plesac/Allen/Plutko.

 

They dealt from strength and got a haul in return.  Reyes is only 23 years old and has a career line of .266/.326/.519. Matt Chapman is career .263/.343/.504.  Add in Puig for 2019 and the decent prospects and it looks like a win for Cleveland.

 

Matt Chapman's gold glove defense at 3rd base makes him a much more valuable player.  Reyes has a nice power stroke, no doubt, but should rarely if ever see time in the field.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Count me as one who isn't sure the Indians got better from this deal. Puig would have the lowest OPS in the Twins lineup and Reyes is basically a DH who has been worth .4 WAR this year and has Sano-like injury concerns. This will expose the Indians pen even more and their pen is not very good. 

B-Ref has Reyes at 0.4 WAR, but Fangraphs has him at 1.4. (B-Ref uses DRS for defense, which has him at -10 runs this year, while Fangraphs uses UZR which has him essentially average. In a comparable number of games last year, DRS had him as essentially average, and UZR at -4.4, so maybe 2019's -10 is a bit of an outlier?)

 

I'm not sure where you are getting "Sano-like injury concerns" for Reyes? He's big, I guess, but here are his career games played:

 

2014: 128 games played in 139 team games

2015: 123 / 128

2016: 130 / 140

2017: 135 / 140

2018: 145 / 162 (MLB rookie season)

2019: 99 / 107

 

If you think he's a risk to pull something while running in the outfield, note that Reyes has already played 740 career pro games in the outfield, the last 160 in MLB. Sano only lasted 39. (And of course, if Reyes gets time at DH, that helps going forward.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Matt Chapman's gold glove defense at 3rd base makes him a much more valuable player.  Reyes has a nice power stroke, no doubt, but should rarely if ever see time in the field.

No doubt Chapman is much, much more valuable!

 

But a 125 OPS+ isn't anything to sneeze at, even at DH. Carlos Santana has a career 120 mark, and Encarnacion only had a 122 in his time with Cleveland.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Statcast says Franmil Reyes, in 2019, is:

 

Top 7% in Barrel %

Top 5% in Exit Velocity

Top 4% in XSLG (Expected SLG)

Top 10% in XWOBACON (Expected wOBA on contact)

Top 7% in Hard Hit %

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/franmil-reyes-614177?stats=career-r-hitting-mlb

 

His XSLG would be 2nd on the 2019 Twins, behind only Cruz. His XWOBA would be 3rd, behind only Cruz and (somewhat inexplicably) Castro:

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/team/142

[jdoffing11]

Personally, I don't love the trade for the Indians this year as much as most. No doubt the offense got better, but I think it hurts the pitching more than people realize. Bieber and Clevinger have become top of the rotation guys, but Plukto is not good, Plesac has pitched well but a 5.15 FIP suggest regression is coming from his 3.10 ERA, and then they are really counting on guys like Danny Salazar who hasn't pitched in 2 years, and Corey Kluber who wasn't exactly pitching well before his forearm injury to come back and pitch well this year. Because the Indians have proven to be very good at developing starters, I like this move long term better, getting Reyes as a legit power bat into the lineup, but at this point they're down to 2 trustworthy starters so I don't think it makes them all that much better.

[spanman2]

T- 4 hours and counting FO...if no additional moves are made,,,VERY VERY disappointing!!!  They have to know in their baseball mind as it stands today we don't have it in us to beat Houston or NY in a 7 game series to get to the big show.  Assuming they would make it to the ALCS against us and assuming we make it.  As a fan it tells me we hope you enjoyed the season but we don't believe the squad is worthy of "going" for it by trading away top prospect(s).  Hopefully we see at least 2 more arms coming our way starter and reliever.  WIN TWINS!!!

Edited July 31, 2019 by spanman2

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Personally, I don't love the trade for the Indians this year as much as most. No doubt the offense got better, but I think it hurts the pitching more than people realize. Bieber and Clevinger have become top of the rotation guys, but Plukto is not good, Plesac has pitched well but a 5.15 FIP suggest regression is coming from his 3.10 ERA, and then they are really counting on guys like Danny Salazar who hasn't pitched in 2 years, and Corey Kluber who wasn't exactly pitching well before his forearm injury to come back and pitch well this year. Because the Indians have proven to be very good at developing starters, I like this move long term better, getting Reyes as a legit power bat into the lineup, but at this point they're down to 2 trustworthy starters so I don't think it makes them all that much better.

On the other hand, Bauer might be overrated. Fangraphs projects him for 1.6 WAR the rest of the 2019 season, which is actually an improvement on his 2019 performance thus far (just using his 2019 numbers so far would only give 1.2 WAR the rest of the way).

 

Puig and Reyes are projected for 1.2 WAR the rest of the way too, and they are replacing guys who have -0.7 WAR for the season so far.

 

No doubt it will hurt Cleveland's pitching, but even with a replacement level starter, they should be able to make up for it on the offensive side of the ball. And at least they have some wild cards coming back from injury with the potential for above-replacement starting pitching, as opposed to offense where I don't think they had any hope for immediate internal upgrades.

[TouchEmAllGuy]

I sure wish we were all analyzing a trade the twins made instead of the Indians...

[Dr. Beanpole]

 

T- 4 hours and counting FO...if no additional moves are made,,,VERY VERY disappointing!!!  They have to know in their baseball mind as it stands today we don't have it in us to beat Houston or NY in a 7 game series to get to the big show.  Assuming they would make it to the ALCS against us and assuming we make it.  As a fan it tells me we hope you enjoyed the season but we don't believe the squad is worthy of "going" for it by trading away top prospect(s).  Hopefully we see at least 2 more arms coming our way starter and reliever.  WIN TWINS!!!

It's not that they don't know. They're not just going to give their best prospects away to say they made a move at the deadline. Unless the asking prices go down on some of these middle-top options, expect the Twins to only make one middle-relief move and call it good for now. 

 

I saw that Detroit tried to get Gleyber Torres back for Matthew Boyd. Yeah that's not going to happen, and if that's any indication on the asking price for some of these guys then I wouldn't be shocked if the Twins don't pick up much today.

[SomeGuy]

 

Matt Chapman's gold glove defense at 3rd base makes him a much more valuable player.  Reyes has a nice power stroke, no doubt, but should rarely if ever see time in the field.

The Indians have an opening at DH if they don't like his defense. But its still Matt Chapman level output in the middle of the offense.

 

Jose Abreu is also comparable 2018 .265/.325/.473, 2019 .263/.300/.475

Edited July 31, 2019 by SomeGuy

[TouchEmAllGuy]

Does Schoop have any trade value? I'd flip him for a reliever if possible.

[SomeGuy]

 

Does Schoop have any trade value? I'd flip him for a reliever if possible.

No he doesn't. Only a team in contention would want a rental like Schoop and they are unlikely to part with a reliever as a contender.

 

We might be able to get a minor leaguer for him.

Edited July 31, 2019 by SomeGuy

[jdoffing11]

 

 

 

No doubt it will hurt Cleveland's pitching, but even with a replacement level starter, they should be able to make up for it on the offensive side of the ball. And at least they have some wild cards coming back from injury with the potential for above-replacement starting pitching, as opposed to offense where I don't think they had any hope for immediate internal upgrades.

Exactly. Because of the added offense, I don't think it makes them worse this year, but at the same time the past few years they've relied on having a rotation that has 4 or 5 really good starters, and now they're down to 2. If one of Kluber, Salazar or even Carrasco can come back and be as good as Bauer, then it would be a win for them this year, but Kluber and Carrasco were both already having awful years by their standards and Salazar hasn't pitched in two years, so I have little faith in that happening. And Puig doesn't do all that much for me either, he's the much bigger name but Reyes is the real win of the trade for Cleveland. Puig did have a terrible first month and has been much better since, but he's cooled off past couple of weeks, and his .777 OPS translates to just a 96 OPS+ from playing in Cincy.

[tvagle]

How do the Twins react to Bauer Trade?

 

I hope they did due diligence by calling 1-800-CIN-REDS and offering J Davis and Graterol for Bauer

[twins1095]

 

How do the Twins react to Bauer Trade?

 

I hope they did due diligence by calling 1-800-CIN-REDS and offering J Davis and Graterol for Bauer

 

What are MLB rules, can a player who was just traded.... be traded again?  If so, that's one move I would make... Rooker/Graterol/+ for Bauer. I would probably even think about doing Graterol/Larnach.

[by jiminy]

 

They're not sitting on them. They're clinging to their precious, precious prospects like grim death dreaming of someday that will never come. 

But isn't that what's happening now? We clung to our prospects and now we're competing?

 

I'm okay with that, personally.   I'd rather have a shot at long-range success built on a rotation of Graterol, Duran, and Balazovic than trade them for some flaky reliever who is only marginally more reliable than the next guy.   The Mets trading top prospects for Diaz is a perfect example of what people are clamoring for.   That was a fiasco and was not that unusual.   No reliever is a sure thing.   I'd rather roll the dice on Graterol himself in the bullpen than trade him for a reliever.

[tvagle]

Today should be all about the Quez

 

Trade the Farm for:

Closer:  Felipe Vaz

Frontline Starter:  German Mar

 

Maybe call the Phillies about Vince Velas

 

Win today...win the Central...win the AL...win the WS

 

Seems like a good day to me

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What are MLB rules, can a player who was just traded.... be traded again?

Sure. There is no limit on how soon a player can be traded again, once they are on your official roster. Plenty of guys have been traded the same or very next day. (Some 3-team trades take this form.)

 

There is waiting period for trading new free agents signed in the offseason -- May 15th, I think?

[Platoon]

Not making any more deals doesn't equate to doing nothing.

 

I'm sure the Twins are trying their damndest to get some pitching help, but so is just about every other contender.

 

I'd rather they stand pat than make a desperation trade like Ramos for Capps, or end up fleeced in what looks like a sellers market.

 

I believe a guy like Thorpe could be as good as some of the proven commodities being shopped around out there.

Good point. If all we get is a guy capable of being good some days, and not some other days, we have several of those in Mpls. and at the Rocherster storage facility. Edited July 31, 2019 by Platoon

[TheMatt]

The reason i want a trade is to clear up room for adds to the 40 man in the fall. We can't protect them all and hate to see them leave for nothing. Another bullpen and younger prospect trade would be great for a few of the fringe guys. Or a Caleb Smith-like sp

[Craig Arko]

I’d say sweeping Cleveland in the upcoming 4 game series would be an appropriate response.

[Reider]

 

The deadline is the hammer that makes deals possible as GMs run up against the possibility of getting nothing.

 

Before that, they believe they can do better if they hold out for more.

 

Once reality bites, then they come down and deal.

 

Twins should not be expected to rectify their pitching corps in one trading deadline: they have too many holes.

 

So, if they add anything of value, that's the best we can hope for, along without losing anything of great value.

...and without giving themselves a real shot at winning a World Series this year, despite having the most powerful line up in the MLB.

Edited July 31, 2019 by Reider

[Reider]

 

I really hope the front office ignores the peanut gallery and doesn't feel additional pressure to "make a deal" or "respond" to the Bauer trade. Let the Twins focus on what they can control. If there's a good deal to be made, make it. Don't force a bad deal just because you need to be seen as doing something.

 

Cleveland just traded away an ace-caliber pitcher for a couple of prospects and a couple sluggers of the caliber that the Twins have a bunch of, and who make Miguel Sano look like a gold glover. Oh, and one of them is about to be suspended. The deal might pay off, but it also might not. It's a big risk. The fundamental facts of both teams' remaining schedules remains the same. The Twins' three game lead remains the same. This quality Twins team remains the same.

 

Should they being working the phones all day to make a deal? Of course. But there's no cause for the Twins to make a gamble just because Cleveland did.

The lack of high end talent and depth in the bullpen remains the same as well, which will be their kryptonite in the playoffs, if they don't get some high end arms for their bullpen. The Yankees series was a great measuring stick.

 

This has nothing to do with gambling. It has everything to do with putting themselves in a position to be successful (win a World Series).

 

[spanman2]

 

It's not that they don't know. They're not just going to give their best prospects away to say they made a move at the deadline. Unless the asking prices go down on some of these middle-top options, expect the Twins to only make one middle-relief move and call it good for now. 

 

I saw that Detroit tried to get Gleyber Torres back for Matthew Boyd. Yeah that's not going to happen, and if that's any indication on the asking price for some of these guys then I wouldn't be shocked if the Twins don't pick up much today.

I never said they don't know.  If you get mid-high level talent as you cited that can aid in making that run how is that 'giving away' your prospect talent?  Obviously they are going to reach for the cream of our crop in a trade scenario.  That is how the game is played.  Other teams are in possession of what we need to improve on the season and perhaps season(s) to come.  You go back and forth and if the deal isn't what you want you move on.  Prospects are prospects for a reason.  They might be HOF players or might fizzle out or land somewhere in the middle.  You never know.  I never suggested mortgaging the future in any trade scenario.  WIN TWINS

[twins1095]

I have to say ultimately other than a Yates or Giles type (for which the asking price seems to be astronomical), I don't think any relievers this year would be magnitudes better than bringing in Graterol, Duran, etc. and letting them pitch an inning out of the pen.  

 

Then long-term obviously, those guys have much more value.  In terms of starters, our 5 starts are solid in terms of being able to win games during the regular season.  The only starter worth acquiring and giving up serious assets for would be those that would start ahead of Odorizzi and or Gibson/Pineda.  Synnerguard is not happening the Mets aren't trading him to us.

 

Other than him, the only remaining SPs that I would think of throwing in my top 3 are Bumgarner, Minor, Ray, and Lynn.  I'm not really convinced Bumgarner is that much better than our options at this point in his career.  I'm also not convinced that Lynn, Minor, or Ray versus no Lynn, Minor, or Ray is really that meaningful in terms of helping or hurting our World Series chances.

 

I guess what I'm trying to say is I don't really like the cards out there and I don't want to deal some of our best cards for marginal upgrades that don't really push the needle past getting creative with internal options.

[by jiminy]

Another example is the Archer trade. I think most trade offers you just need to be able to walk away. I'd rather see the Twins as they look now, with the only help coming form the minors, than their future gutted for a dubious star like Archer or Edwin Diaz.

[Otto von Ballpark]

We pick on the Cleveland outfield, but after this trade, the Twins and Indians active roster outfield performances are exactly 111 wRC+ in 2019 (and this includes Yasiel Puig's bad start in Cincinnati):

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2019&month=43&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=1&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=16,d

 

Although the Twins still have an advantage in outfield defense, of course!