Article: Buyer Beware: Avoiding a Chris Archer Trade

[USAFChief]

 

Prospects in general are not "overrated." Prospects are the ONLY way the Twins can possibly hope to compete, in any season, for as long as MLB exists in the future. Former prospects are obviously the only reason the Twins are competitive this year.

 

The issue with prospects of course is that only a minority of them actually pan out. But it really doesn't matter because clubs don't know for sure who will and who won't. The value of a top prospect like Kirilloff is enormous just because he *might* be really good. 

 

The huge market teams (which, by the way, includes Houston) are reluctant to part with top prospects but also have the ability to make up for mistakes by spending more. The Twins aren't going to spend more and so the front office can't make the same kinds of decisions.

 

Now, if I could exchange Kirilloff for a World Series title, I would do that. Unfortunately, that's not how things work. The Twins could trade every single prospect of note in the system and their World Series odds would only increase by a moderate amount (and still remain a relatively low probability given the number of teams in the playoffs).

 

Post-season baseball is unpredictable. Oftentimes, the best team doesn't win. I want to make the playoffs as much as possible, and not give up numerous future playoff appearances in exchange for an 8th inning reliever who may or may not actually make an impact.

I want to make the playoffs in 2019, and not doggedly hold on to players who will have no impact on 2019 on the premise they may someday help garner "numerous future playoff appearances."

 

Pretty loaded language, IYYM. You can't guarantee those playoff appearances any more than I can guarantee a good 8th inning reliever will help get to a WS.

 

But I'm pretty confident of this much: we will seldom be in a better position to make the playoffs than we are on 23 July 2019. 

[ashbury]

But I'm pretty confident of this much: we will seldom be in a better position to make the playoffs than we are on 23 July 2019. 

If we trade off any and all of the well-regarded prospects? Yes. Probably so.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So 8 days from the deadline am I the only one here thinking they are going to try and wait out the market too long and end up getting no help when it’s all said and done?
I am really surprised they haven’t at least brought in a reliever by this point wonder how much longer the FO keeps the clubhouse at bay if they don’t make upgrades to the pen? I hope they don’t see Thorpe as their “upgrade” and just roll with that.

Very few trades have happened at all compared to previous years. I'm also disappointed that a deal hasn't been finalized but the NL bunching up around the WC berths has put a real damper on the deadline thus far, I think.

 

Particularly the Giants going on a run. They have a deep bullpen with lots of arms that should have been available... then they started winning 90% of their games.

[Doomtints]

 

Prospects in general are not "overrated." Prospects are the ONLY way the Twins can possibly hope to compete, in any season, for as long as MLB exists in the future. Former prospects are obviously the only reason the Twins are competitive this year.

 

A graphic was flashed during the playoffs a year or two ago showing how playoff teams in that year acquired their talent. The number of playoff teams with talent that came from trades would clearly surprise you.

 

If I recall correctly, there was only one team in the playoffs that year which was mostly home-grown talent. There were a couple that only lightly dipped into the free agency pool, but almost all the teams had large parts of their rosters coming in from trades.

 

Settlers of Catan might be a good game for armchair GMs to play. You acquire resources on your own, but it's difficult to get every resource at the right time and in the right ratios to win, so to make up for that you have to do trades. Only by doing both can you win the game.

Edited July 23, 2019 by Doomtints

[ashbury]

 

Particularly the Giants going on a run. They have a deep bullpen with lots of arms that should have been available... then they started winning 90% of their games.

Perhaps in part due to a deep bullpen with lots of arms.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Perhaps in part due to a deep bullpen with lots of arms.

From what I’ve seen at a glance, it’s mostly because the offense remembered that teams must score runs to win baseball games.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

A graphic was flashed during the playoffs a year or two ago showing how playoff teams in that year acquired their talent. The number of playoff teams with talent that came from trades would clearly surprise you.

 

If I recall correctly, there was only one team in the playoffs that year which was mostly home-grown talent. There were a couple that only lightly dipped into the free agency pool, but almost all the teams had large parts of their rosters coming in from trades.

 

Settlers of Catan might be a good game for armchair GMs to play. You acquire resources on your own, but it's difficult to get every resource at the right time and in the right ratios to win, so to make up for that you have to do trades. Only by doing both can you win the game.

 

Need a couple resource cards that give us automatic victory points against the Yankees in the playoffs. 

[Tomj14]

 

Very few trades have happened at all compared to previous years. I'm also disappointed that a deal hasn't been finalized but the NL bunching up around the WC berths has put a real damper on the deadline thus far, I think.

 

Particularly the Giants going on a run. They have a deep bullpen with lots of arms that should have been available... then they started winning 90% of their games.

that is why they should have overpaid in June.

[SwainZag]

 

that is why they should have overpaid in June.

 

You don't even know if anyone was available in June to be overpaid for.

[ashbury]

that is why they should have overpaid in June.

 

You don't even know if anyone was available in June to be overpaid for.

I'd feel better about the idea if some other team had scooped us on this bold strategy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sure, but that's fantasy land. The Reds aren't going to offer their best pitcher, a guy who's pitching at a Cy Young-level in MLB and is under team control for the next 5 years to anyone. We could offer Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, and Balazovic and they still would probably laugh at us, because even if those prospects have amazing value Castillo has more for their franchise because it's less risk.

 

Actually, I am pretty sure the Reds take that package. Castillo is no Trout. Edited July 23, 2019 by spycake

[Doomtints]

 

Need a couple resource cards that give us automatic victory points against the Yankees in the playoffs. 

 

I don't expect this team to beat the Yankees in the playoffs. The best hope for the Twins is for someone else to do that.

 

But you never know, if this team gets hot like it was earlier in the year....

[Tomj14]

 

It requires 2 teams to make a trade. There are many teams still deciding whether to sell or not, and teams like the Blue Jays (Giles) are going to ask for a fortune today, but prices will likely calm down nearer July 31

The Twins could have went out and got Sergio Romo, Caleb Smith, Mychal Givens, Andrew Cashner, Seth Luog, Lirano or somebody in that range weeks ago for mid level prospects and seen how they would do and kept looking for more top end guys.

Instead it could be they waited too long and that is the only type of guy(s) they get at the deadline.

[Tomj14]

 

 

The huge market teams (which, by the way, includes Houston) are reluctant to part with top prospects but also have the ability to make up for mistakes by spending more. The Twins aren't going to spend more and so the front office can't make the same kinds of decisions.

 

 

Hasn't Houston traded about a 10 of their higher end prospects the last few years?

Verlander, Cole, Pressley, Liriano, McCann

[Tomj14]

 

You don't even know if anyone was available in June to be overpaid for.

You could be right, but I am pretty sure for the right prospects the Baltimore and Miami were ready to trade at that time, and Smith's name as been floated since then, it would have just meant overpaying (since you would be getting the player for a month longer)

Plus with all the teams still fighting, I don't believe it is going to be any less expensive for the higher end guys now than it was then. Sure the middle guys might get cheaper, but there is a reason for that, they are closer to May than Rodgers.

Edited July 23, 2019 by Tomj14

[SwainZag]

 

You could be right, but I am pretty sure for the right prospects the Baltimore and Miami were ready to trade at that time, and Smith's name as been floated since then, it would have just meant overpaying (since you would be getting the player for a month longer)

Plus with all the teams still fighting, I don't believe it is going to be any less expensive for the higher end guys now than it was then. Sure the middle guys might get cheaper, but there is a reason for that, they are closer to May than Rodgers.

 

I found this article from June 24th and the Marlins had no intentions of trading Smith, unless you meant Will Smith.  His name was floated, but I think there is a good chance the Giants still thought they might be able to compete and held back and told teams to wait.  

 

I like the idea of just thinking it would have been easier in June, I just don't know how feasible it is to actually get it done, unless it's a vast blow me away overpay.

[alarp33]

 

You could be right, but I am pretty sure for the right prospects the Baltimore and Miami were ready to trade at that time, and Smith's name as been floated since then, it would have just meant overpaying (since you would be getting the player for a month longer)

Plus with all the teams still fighting, I don't believe it is going to be any less expensive for the higher end guys now than it was then. Sure the middle guys might get cheaper, but there is a reason for that, they are closer to May than Rodgers.

 

A few posts up you said the Twins should've traded for "Sergio Romo, Caleb Smith, Mychal Givens, Andrew Cashner, Seth Luog, Lirano" and now you are saying the Twins don't need someone closer to May they need more Rogers?

[Major League Ready]

 

Yes on Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balzovic, and Duran (and Arraez). Yes on Larnach. The way to win a WS is to go for it when you have the chance. 

 

Just in the last three years:

 

2018 Boston added Nate Eovaldi, Ian Kinsler, and Steve Pearce

2017 Houston added Francisco Liriano, Tyler Clippard, and Justin Verlander

2016 Chicago added Chris Coghlan, Mike Montgomery, Aroldis Chapman, and Joe Smith.

 

Certainly don't give away top prospects. But if you can impact your team significantly, do it, even if it costs some of those same prospects. 

 

You are making an assumption these teams would not have won without those additions. Maybe they made the difference and maybe they would have won it all without them. You are also neglecting to account for the dozen or so teams who traded many prospects and did not win the world series. Many of them did not even make the playoffs and all but 2 made it to the world series. The facts are crystal clear ... this strategy fails far more than it exceeds. This is not to say teams should not try to improve their chances. History or the facts if you prefer explain why GMs are no nearly as cavalier in their trading of prospects. They are accountable for more than just this year and while you may not care about anything but the present, their job is to balance the present and the future. You exhibit absolute disdain for the premise of certain prospects being off limits, yet the most successful franchises and most respect front offices take this stand frequently. You might want to rethink the position that you have a much better grip on strategy than all of these respected executives.

Edited July 23, 2019 by Major League Ready

[Tomj14]

 

A few posts up you said the Twins should've traded for "Sergio Romo, Caleb Smith, Mychal Givens, Andrew Cashner, Seth Luog, Lirano" and now you are saying the Twins don't need someone closer to May they need more Rogers?

Yes, In June they should went after a guy(s) like that help, but now what they need is relief pitchers that can be trusted late.

[Tomj14]

 

 

I found this article from June 24th and the Marlins had no intentions of trading Smith, unless you meant Will Smith.  His name was floated, but I think there is a good chance the Giants still thought they might be able to compete and held back and told teams to wait.  

 

I like the idea of just thinking it would have been easier in June, I just don't know how feasible it is to actually get it done, unless it's a vast blow me away overpay.

Yes, I was talking about Will Smith, prior to the Giants going crazy the last 20 games just to get to .500.

 

[Tomj14]

 

 

I found this article from June 24th and the Marlins had no intentions of trading Smith, unless you meant Will Smith.  His name was floated, but I think there is a good chance the Giants still thought they might be able to compete and held back and told teams to wait.  

 

I like the idea of just thinking it would have been easier in June, I just don't know how feasible it is to actually get it done, unless it's a vast blow me away overpay.

and yet the Red Sox traded for Cashner on July 13th for two guys I can't seem to find in their top 30 prospects (I could be looking in the wrong spot though)

[SwainZag]

 

and yet the Red Sox traded for Cashner on July 13th for two guys I can't seem to find in their top 30 prospects (I could be looking in the wrong spot though)

 

Cashner isn't even in the same league as Will Smith though when it comes to additions.  It seems likes a pure and simple dump of the contract by a horrible O's team.  He's also been hit hard both times he pitched for the Sox, would he even have been much of an upgrade for the Twins? 

[Tomj14]

 

Cashner isn't even in the same league as Will Smith though when it comes to additions.  It seems likes a pure and simple dump of the contract by a horrible O's team.  He's also been hit hard both times he pitched for the Sox, would he even have been much of an upgrade for the Twins? 

not saying the Twins should have traded for him, I am saying there were players out that that could be traded for.

[USAFChief]

 

You are making an assumption these teams would not have won without those additions. Maybe they made the difference and maybe they would have won it all without them. You are also neglecting to account for the dozen or so teams who traded many prospects and did not win the world series. Many of them did not even make the playoffs and all but 2 made it to the world series. The facts are crystal clear ... this strategy fails far more than it exceeds. This is not to say teams should not try to improve their chances. History or the facts if you prefer explain why GMs are no nearly as cavalier in their trading of prospects. They are accountable for more than just this year and while you may not care about anything but the present, their job is to balance the present and the future. You exhibit absolute disdain for the premise of certain prospects being off limits, yet the most successful franchises and most respect front offices take this stand frequently. You might want to rethink the position that you have a much better grip on strategy than all of these respected executives.

Perhaps you're right, extreme caution has worked so well for us. 

 

 

We're so fortunate we let Jason Tyner soak up postseason DH ABs instead of wasting minor leaguers on an improvement.

 

Holding on to all those pitching prospects has produced how many CYA winners again? It's hard for me to keep track.

 

Bottom line: We've collected one postseason series win since 1991. 6 postseason games won since 1991. Zero postseason games won since 2004. One postseason game played since 2010.

 

I want more than that. YMMV.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I want to make the playoffs in 2019, and not doggedly hold on to players who will have no impact on 2019 on the premise they may someday help garner "numerous future playoff appearances."

 

Pretty loaded language, IYYM. You can't guarantee those playoff appearances any more than I can guarantee a good 8th inning reliever will help get to a WS.

 

But I'm pretty confident of this much: we will seldom be in a better position to make the playoffs than we are on 23 July 2019. 

 

I can absolutely guarantee that the odds of future playoff appearances are higher with Lewis, Kirilloff, Balazovic, Larnach, etc. still in the system. I don't see how that could even be questioned. 

 

Everything is probabilistic. That's something most fans struggle with, on this site included. In this case, you are overestimating the impact of trade pick-ups and underestimating the importance of prospects. It's a math error, nothing more or less.

 

The impact on WS odds of acquiring a good reliever are much, much lower than you think. That's why you're willing to pay a high price. 

 

 

[alarp33]

 

 

 

One postseason game played since 2010.

 

I want more than that. YMMV.

 

This is pretty much solely due to the fact that the Twins had a bottom farm system for years, which oddly you seem to be arguing for doing again. 

 

I know you were big on trading Lewis + for Realmuto, good thing the GM has a level of patience and is looking at broader picture

Edited July 23, 2019 by alarp33

[SwainZag]

 

Perhaps you're right, extreme caution has worked so well for us. 

 

We've collected one postseason series win since 1991. 6 postseason games won since 1991. Zero postseason games won since 2004. One postseason game played since 2010. We're so fortunate we let Jason Tyner soak up postseason DH ABs instead of wasting minor leaguers on an improvement.

 

Holding on to all those pitching prospects has produced how many CYA winners again? It's hard for me to keep track.

 

Past results do not predict future events though.  Just because they failed to make major moves and clean out the farm system in 2006 and lost in the 1st round with a completely front office, staff and players doesn't not mean a lick in 2019.  

 

I would rather the team not get blinded by actually being a good team to realize that if you build a good enough core it's not a one year shot.  I really hope they don't blow all their ammunition overpaying and shorten the window.  

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

not saying the Twins should have traded for him, I am saying there were players out that that could be traded for.

 

Andrew Cashner has a 4.65 FIP (60th amongst 76 qualified starters) and 4.94 xFIP (63rd), is striking out barely 6 per 9 (71st) while walking almost 3 per 9 (47th), all with an unsustainably low .263 BABIP (10th).  There's a reason he was available in June, and for the price the Red Sox paid.

[nokomismod]

 

According to this article, the Twins have deemed Lewis, Kiriloff, and Graterol off limits.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-trade-deadline-10-prospects-that-could-be-dealt-including-gems-from-the-yankees-astros-and-braves/

Does that make Larnach the biggest chip? I think he will be a better offensive MLB player over Lewis and Kiriloff.

[USAFChief]

 

This is pretty much solely due to the fact that the Twins had a bottom farm system for years, which oddly you seem to be arguing for doing again. 

 

I know you were big on trading Lewis + for Realmuto, good thing the GM has a level of patience and is looking at broader picture

The Twins have had a bottom farm system since 1991?

 

For the record, I'm reasonably confident I never specifically listed Lewis as tradeable for Realmuto. I don't think I've ever assigned specific names to specific trade proposals. I don't really follow the minor leagues closely enough to be able to reasonably assign specific names. Not that I would have been opposed, I guess.