Noah Syndergaard

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yes, Sano is on an equal pace with Syndergaard this year. And he's averaged 33 HR/600 PA to this point, if we're ignoring injuries with Thor. The gap between them is nowhere near $90M in trade value any place, any time.

On this tangent: if the gap between them is significantly closer than that, why do you want to subtract Sano in a pennant race? Are Diaz and Lugo that much better than any other relievers on the market, to lead to that extraordinary step? Diaz has had some rough times this year, and is about to get pretty expensive in arbitration too.

[jkcarew]

 

Seems most here value Kiriloff over Lewis and I'm curious why? Lewis will play OF if he can't stick at SS/2B and isn't he going to be better offensively?

I don't know of one scout or scouting service that projects Lewis better offensively than Kirilloff. It's the other way around...and by a fairly significant margin. So, far...things can change.

[howeda7]

 

I don't know of one scout or scouting service that projects Lewis better offensively than Kirilloff. It's the other way around...and by a fairly significant margin. So, far...things can change.

Because of the power difference? I just view a power hitting corner OF'er as less valuable then a potential SS or CF unless the difference is dramatic.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I honestly don't understand your position. First, you rely on data that shows Syndergaard is worth 7x as much as Sano and devote paragraphs explaining why Thor is far superior. Now you say that Sano is too important to the 25-man roster, even though the Twins would acquire the far superior player at a position of need in the playoffs, plus two high-power relief arms. 

 

I added Kirilloff, which still keeps the trade value shifted to the Twins, according to BTV. But now it's too much? I don't see your point. Are the RP overvalued? Is Kirilloff undervalued?

Sorry if I haven't been clear.

 

Even if Sano is less valuable than Syndergaard, he still has significant value to a team in a pennant race. And how many teams subtract like that in a pennant race?

 

Another poster put it much more succinctly than I: "I think you could keep one [Lewis and Kirilloff], and still get Syndergaard and a reliever (from a different team) as dependable as Lugo"

[gunnarthor]

 

Seems most here value Kiriloff over Lewis and I'm curious why? Lewis will play OF if he can't stick at SS/2B and isn't he going to be better offensively?

I think Lewis is the better prospect. I think Kiriloff is the safer prospect. I honestly don't care which of them is traded, I see pros and cons for each. 

[dbminn]

 

On this tangent: if the gap between them is significantly closer than that, why do you want to subtract Sano in a pennant race? Are Diaz and Lugo that much better than any other relievers on the market, to lead to that extraordinary step? Diaz has had some rough times this year, and is about to get pretty expensive in arbitration too.

 

Because the Twins need a power starter, both for the regular season and the playoffs. They will have a net benefit by adding Syndergaard and replacing Sano, IMO. If you disagree, that's fine, but it's a different position than your original post.

 

They also need two power relief arms. I'm not worried about Diaz's ERA. If you think Diaz is going to continue to have rough times, then he won't be expensive in arbitration. I think he'll be fine.

 

RE: Twins budget. They lose contracts for Gibson, Odo, Perez, Cron and Schoop at the end of the year. They are already about $20M under last year. Trading Sano clears his arbitration salaries. They can make it work.

 

Personally, I don't care if they take an alternative route. But the rumor is that the Mets want Sano. That's why I posted the trade.

[crapforks]

I think Lewis is the better prospect. I think Kiriloff is the safer prospect. I honestly don't care which of them is traded, I see pros and cons for each.

Agreed. Just hopefully not both.

[jkcarew]

 

Because of the power difference? I just view a power hitting corner OF'er as less valuable then a potential SS or CF unless the difference is dramatic.

I agree in the case of SS, to a much lesser extent in the case of a CF. And, Lewis' play at SS isn't exactly getting rave reviews, either. Anyway...at this point, Lewis is OPS'ing 679 as a 20-year old at Ft. Myers. At 20, Kirlloff was OPS'ing 943 at Ft Myers. These are reasons why Kirilloff has moved ahead of Lewis in some ranking services. Power, aerage, everything.

 

To me, it's not unreasonable at all to still view Lewis as a more valuable prospect than Kirilloff, based on upside. But I don't at this point in time...not for the Twins, anyway. I'm also considering that the Twins have a good-hitting, young, SS already signed....and what appears to be a good-hitting option at 2B in Arraez.

[SwainZag]

 

Because the Twins need a power starter, both for the regular season and the playoffs. They will have a net benefit by adding Syndergaard and replacing Sano, IMO. If you disagree, that's fine, but it's a different position than your original post.

 

They also need two power relief arms. I'm not worried about Diaz's ERA. If you think Diaz is going to continue to have rough times, then he won't be expensive in arbitration. I think he'll be fine.

 

RE: Twins budget. They lose contracts for Gibson, Odo, Perez, Cron and Schoop at the end of the year. They are already about $20M under last year. Trading Sano clears his arbitration salaries. They can make it work.

 

Personally, I don't care if they take an alternative route. But the rumor is that the Mets want Sano. That's why I posted the trade.

 

I can almost guarantee that one of Gibson/Odor is brought back on a multi-year deal or a qualifying offer and Cron has another year of arby left.

 

Where have you seen the Mets want Sano?  MLTR article didn't mention him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Because the Twins need a power starter, both for the regular season and the playoffs. They will have a net benefit by adding Syndergaard and replacing Sano, IMO. If you disagree, that's fine, but it's a different position than your original post.

The "position" in my original post on this tangent isn't exclusive of other positions. The original trade you proposed was highly imbalanced in our favor. It, and your revised proposal, also unnecessarily subtracted from our current 25-man roster -- we can afford to get Syndergaard and quality relievers without doing that. I'll bow out of debating this tangent now.

 

 

Personally, I don't care if they take an alternative route. But the rumor is that the Mets want Sano. That's why I posted the trade.

Where have you seen that the Mets want Sano?

[gunnarthor]

 

I can almost guarantee that one of Gibson/Odor is brought back on a multi-year deal or a qualifying offer and Cron has another year of arby left.

 

Where have you seen the Mets want Sano?  MLTR article didn't mention him.

If the Twins keep Perez and Cruz on their options, payroll would already be nearly 100m. The team would need two SP, another catcher, and a MI option and probably a few relief arms.

 

I suspect the MI would be in-house (Arraez) and maybe they bring Castro back on a similar deal (8m). That would put payroll around 105m-ish. I think QO is over 17m. I don't think they'd offer that to either Odorizzi or Gibson b/c that would put payroll pretty close to its limits while still needing room for more arms. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think QO is over 17m. I don't think they'd offer that to either Odorizzi or Gibson b/c that would put payroll pretty close to its limits while still needing room for more arms. 

That's only if the player accepts the QO. Otherwise, it's just leverage for a longer deal at lower AAV.

[gunnarthor]

 

That's only if the player accepts the QO. Otherwise, it's just leverage for a longer deal at lower AAV.

True, but after what we saw with Kuechel this year, I would think Gibson would take the QO. (Unless the rules have changed).

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I’ll give you the injury history, but his four seamer has been sitting 98-99 MPH all season.

The guy has five pitches in his bag, I like those guys to be able to adjust repertoire and approach when needed.

And if there’s one thing the organization should get congratulated on when it comes to pitching, and it might actually just be one thing, they have been keeping them healthy.

 

I was referring to specifically his slider and cutter, both of which are down over 3 MPH from just last year.  Of his 5 pitches, the fastball has graded out neutral, but the sinker and slider are negative, which means he really only has two effective pitches.

 

As for health, let's look at the appearances of the Twins current starters--it seems like much of the Twins ability to avoid injuries to the starters has come from amassing fairly durable guys.

 

Odorizzi--at least 26 starts every year since 2013

Berriosat least 25 starts every year since 2014, over 30 since 2016

Gibson--at least 27 starts every year since 2013

Perez--at least 20 starts every year since 2015 (except 2018 where he was moved to the bullpen and made 7 appearances--not health related).

Pineda--the one injury prone guy

 

This is why I'm not super hot on Syndergaard--paying $40m over the next two years for a guy showing some signs of decline who is also an injury risk, AND having to give up the pieces that comprise our depth over the next 2-4 years makes me nervous.  I think if they can get him for Kiriloff and a couple of C prospects I'm ok, or for one guy in 3-6 range and two in the 10-20 range I'm good.  Anything more, and I'll be legitimately anxious.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

True, but after what we saw with Kuechel this year, I would think Gibson would take the QO. (Unless the rules have changed).

If it gets to the QO deadline, yeah, he probably takes it.

 

But I think he (and the team) might try to get a 3/40 type deal instead, even before the QO deadline.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Couple of things... 180 innings is a lofty goal for any SP. I'd be curious to know how many SP today are on pace to match or eclipse that.

If he continues to get injured and miss time, he's not making $20+ million in arbitration.

And the Johan trade was screwed from the get go because the past regime refused to trade him in the same league. There were much better offers available from the Yankees and Red Sox at the time but TR didn't want to do the deals.

 

Most pitchers have made about 2/3 of their starts so far this year, so they would need to be at about 120 innings to be on pace for 180.  There are currently 32 pitchers with 120+ IP this year, and another 15 between 115 and 120.  Certainly most pitchers won't get to 180 IP, but it's not a rare occurrence or anything.

 

Syndergaard has seasons of 2.8, 5.9, 4.2, and 2.7 (2019) WAR--he's definitely a good pitcher, and is likely to command a good amount in arbitration.  It's also important to remember that arbitration is an either-or proposition.  For example, if the Twins offer $13M, and Syndergaard asks for $20M, but the panel thinks his true value is $17M, he doesn't get $17M, he gets the $20M.  Keep in mind that Bauer won his case for $13M, and his previous 4 seasons had been for 13.3 WAR, compared to Syndergaard at 14.3--if he continues his pace this year, he'll finish his year at around 4 WAR, which would give him 15.2.  Either way, the Twins will clearly have to spend at least $30M and probably more for a good but risky pitcher.  Just makes me nervous.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This is why I'm not super hot on Syndergaard--paying $40m over the next two years

I don't think Syndergaard should cost $40 mil over the next two years. He's only getting $6 mil this year. Bauer made $6.5 mil last year, in the same service class, and it took a near Cy Young season to get him to $13 mil this year. Stroman also got $6.5 last year, and had a poor season and only got $7.4 this year. The previous year is a fairly big factor in determining how much a raise there will be.

 

I think Syndergaard is probably looking at ~$10 mil next year, and $15-20 mil the year after depending on performance.

 

Edit: I just saw your next post. Yeah, $30 mil over 2 years is probably closer.

[howeda7]

 

I think Lewis is the better prospect. I think Kiriloff is the safer prospect. I honestly don't care which of them is traded, I see pros and cons for each. 

That makes sense. I'd rather keep the higher upside.

[howeda7]

There is certainly injury risk. But there are only a couple available starters that I feel confident taking the mound in Game 1/2 at Yankee Stadium/Minute Maid. MadBaum, who is apparently no longer available, Grienke, who I don't think we'll take salary-wise and Syndergaard. Stroman/Boyd/ etc. don't install that much more confidence than Gibson/Odo.

[alarp33]

 

I would rather have Stromen, he still is pitching strong and would more likely look to sign an extension than go year to year like Syndegaard.. Count me out on Thor. I would also try and get Ian Kennedy as the closer.

 

 

Are you assuming a giant difference in costs to acquire? Because an extension in either case is meaningless today. You would be acquiring Stroman for 1.5 years or Syndergaard for 2.5, and I'd argue Syndergaard is definitely the better pitcher

[clone52]

 

The other elephant in the room is payroll. The Pohlads are cheap and have never shown a willingness to spend to support a playoff caliber core. Buxton, Berrios, Rosario, Rogers and Sano are going to get really expensive. 

 

Our current core is going to get very expensive as they go through arbitration. B-R estimates the arb salaries the next few years alone will be:

 

2020 - 50m

2021 - 70m

2022 - 100m

 

Thor would add a lot to those totals in 2020 and 2021.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/minnesota-twins-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

 

The just use about $5 million per arb eligible player to project that.  There are a boatload of guys on that list for 2022 that the Twins won't be offering arbitration to.  It won't actually be nearly that high.  For example, this year the Twins have 7 players on arbitration salary and they are paying them 22.76 million.  That website would have estimated they would be paying them $35 million.

 

In 2022, its more likely that they'd be paying them a lot less.  In 2022, I could see them maybe paying them $70 million in arbitration, and thats if Berrios gets $20 million in arbitration and Buxton and Rosario gets $15 million.  Garver might get $6 million by that time.  Taylor Rogers could be up around $10 million.  Guys like Romero, Stewart, Gonsalves, Littell, Harper, Astudillo, Rorreyes, Cave Hildenberger, if they are still around wouldn't be getting more than a million or 2 each.

[Tomj14]

The way I see it the Mets owe the Twins for Viola and Santana.

[dbminn]

 

I can almost guarantee that one of Gibson/Odor is brought back on a multi-year deal or a qualifying offer and Cron has another year of arby left.

 

Where have you seen the Mets want Sano?  MLTR article didn't mention him.

 

I'm not sure whose tweet I read. One of the national reporters. How about I say that it was fun to include him in a deal? I like Sano a lot but it's rare a SP like Syndergaard hits the market. 

 

Whatever happens, I'm open to whatever the Twins do. They can get a couple rentals (SP/RP or RP/RP). That would cost a lot less in players. They can go lower tier, that'll save them assets too, if that's the goal.

 

The Twins will need at least two SP and 1 RP in 2020. The cost will be high, either in money or prospects to fill those spots. Resigning both Gibson and Odo at QO is $36M for a year and they'll be in no better position than today (without a QO, both will test the FA market.).  That's why I'd like to see the Twins get a controllable SP at the level of Syndergaard. He'll be in yr 3 of his 4 arb years, maybe $12-15M. He costs about $2M for the rest of this year.

 

I thought it would be fun to make the deal a big one, so I added Diaz and Lugo. They can definitely get RP from other places. I still like Diaz, more than those that rely on ERA.

 

Sano doesn't have to be included in any trade. I'm happy he's a Twin. But they will need to improve their SP and BP to match up with NY and Houston from now until 2021. IMO, trading for high-end players under control is a top option.

[dbminn]

 

The "position" in my original post on this tangent isn't exclusive of other positions. The original trade you proposed was highly imbalanced in our favor. It, and your revised proposal, also unnecessarily subtracted from our current 25-man roster -- we can afford to get Syndergaard and quality relievers without doing that. I'll bow out of debating this tangent now.

 

 

Where have you seen that the Mets want Sano?

 

And I responded directly to your comments. You've told me Sano is worth 1/7 of Syndergaard yet too valuable to the Twins. Ok. Why not just propose a Syndergaard trade that makes better sense to you? (Maybe you already have and I don't remember the post)

[Brandon]

 

The way I see it the Mets owe the Twins for Viola and Santana.

The Twins won big time on the Viola trade.  Tapani and Aguilerra were big time pitchers and a big reason we won the 91 world series.  

 

Santana trade.... not so much.... did anything work out from that trade?  I think we were better off keeping Santana and getting a draft pick since he probably would have been the difference in going to game 163 and winning the division outright.  so they definitely owe us from this one.  

[Slim Tubby]

There will be plenty of competition for Thor but sending out BOTH Lewis and Kiriloff? Absolutely not. I understand the cost will be steep but what other teams are going to offer two (2) of the Top 10 prospects in all of baseball? What other teams even have two (2) Top 10 prospects to offer of the teams after him?

 

Lewis and Alex have the chance to be transformational players for this organization. I'd offer Graterol, Gordon and Rooker/Larnach at the most. If that's not enough for the Mets, change course and go after Stroman who should be less expensive than Thor.

 

What really upsets me the most is that the Pohlad's have consistently refused to open up their checkbook for quality free agents without losing talent from our farm system. Instead, we sit until we have a decent product on the field that's only a player or two away and it costs us very talented prospects in a trade. This club has always taken a very reactive approach to running the organization instead of being proactive and aggressive. It's frustrating...sorry for the rant.

[Otto von Ballpark]

You've told me Sano is worth 1/7 of Syndergaard yet too valuable to the Twins. Ok.

I cited baseballtradevalues.com to illustrate the general imbalance of your original proposal, not to specifically endorse any precise valuations, so we can retire this "1/7" thing.

 

And this isn't about Sano vs Syndergaard and who you would rather have in a vacuum. The Twins have the resources to maximize net gain this year, and not subtract from our 25-man roster to add players.

[cmoss84]

You trade both Lewis and Kiriloff because...

 

...you want to WIN in the playoffs. Not just get there.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why not just propose a Syndergaard trade that makes better sense to you? (Maybe you already have and I don't remember the post)

Obviously it sounds like Lewis and Kirilloff would get it done.

 

But if the Mets are truly intent on moving him, then it might not take that much -- we would only have to outbid the other suitors. I think just one of those two plus maybe two other complementary pieces (among Larnach, Graterol, Duran, Balazovic, etc.) might get it done, in that case.

[notoriousgod71]

To quote the best manager of our lifetime, Lou Brown: "I'm tired of this nickel and dime ****. I'm getting that bitch on the phone."

 

Get a legitimate ace. PLEASE. FOR ONCE IN MY LIFETIME.