Article: Potential Prospect Cost in Twins Trades

[Tomj14]

 

What kind of a package would the blue jays want for Stroman and Giles? Could Miguel Sano help tip the scales and lighten the prospect demands? Blue jays don’t need a 3rd baseman, but what about 1b/DH? I’m not as down on Sano as others, but he doesn’t seem to be an absolutely essential part of this team.

The problem I have with dealing Sano is it means either the Turtle will have to take over full time 3rd base or Gonzalez gets moved out of super utility role (which is what gives him quite a bit of his value).

With the way Sano has been hitting lately I think he should be pinch hit for late in the game.

[twinsfanstreif]

If you really believe Scherzer is still "immensely effective" and you'd "take him a heartbeat", maybe it's not so "dumb" that the Nats don't want to deal him.

 

It's hard to get fair value return on really good players -- that's why so few of them are dealt by teams with plausible arguments for current or near-future contention.

I should preface that I think the Nats are dumb for not trading him because they are clearly not good this year and probably next. By time they might be in contention (which could be 3 years or more) again he is gonna be too old to really be effective, they need to cash in on an older but effective player now rather than getting nothing for him. Just my take

[Rosterman]

It all depends on how much salary is absorbed by either side in a salary dump candidate.

 

Sometimes a team wants the promise of the future, instead of also rans and guys that another team has yet to see fit to put in their plans.

 

Plus, a team also looks at where they are strong and weak in their own system. You don't need a Twins top shortstop (or middle infield) prospect if you have one or two of your own. You trade for system weakness/depth. And who can play today. Who can break the lineup tomorrow. And who will be on your team in 2021 or beyond!

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I should preface that I think the Nats are dumb for not trading him because they are clearly not good this year and probably next. By time they might be in contention (which could be 3 years or more) again he is gonna be too old to really be effective, they need to cash in on an older but effective player now rather than getting nothing for him. Just my take

Re: "clearly not good this year and probably next"

 

The Nationals are currently 15th in non-pitcher wRC+, and likewise 15th in runs scored per game, ahead of their rival Phillies and Mets. (For Statcast types, they're 12th in xwOBA too.)

 

The Nationals are 8th in starting pitcher ERA, and 4th in FIP and 5th in xFIP. (Also 5th best xwOBA by Statcast.)

 

But the Nationals are dead last in reliever ERA, 22nd in FIP, and 29th in xFIP. (29th in xwOBA as well.)

 

Even with that awful pen, they're still tied with Philadelphia for 2nd place the division in Pythag record, and they're even 5 games ahead of Philly by BaseRuns record. Looking at wild card competition, the Nationals are tied with Milwaukee in both Pythag and BaseRuns record.

 

The Nationals are currently running a $197 mil payroll, but they could shed $70 mil in departing free agents this winter, giving them more than enough room to make an aggressive bid to retain Rendon plus add other pieces or rein in payroll a bit, if they so desire, and go forward with their great SP and young controlled hitters like Soto and Turner.

 

The Nationals are clearly not perfect and will face challenges, for sure, but this doesn't look like a recipe for aggressively shopping a guy like Scherzer right now. MLB bullpens can and do get turned around quickly. The Nationals actually led the division in reliever ERA just last year (and were 15th in MLB). The whole division ranks 20th through 24th, respectively, in 2019 bullpen FIP.

 

Unless they are absolutely blown away by an offer -- like, 3 elite prospects and all the salary relief, sending Scherzer to an AL team -- I can't see them moving Scherzer now.

 

Strasburg is actually the more interesting case -- he has an opt out after this season with 4/100 remaining, and a limited no-trade clause right now. Although if they think he's likely to opt out, that would obviously drop his trade value to rental territory too, assuming they could even navigate the no-trade. (Given his health history and the recent FA markets, he might stick with the 4/100, or maybe just use the opt out to negotiate a further extension like Sabathia did a few years back.)

[markos]

Speaking of the Nationals...

 

Anthony Rendon + Sean Doolittle for Sano + Duran. 

 

Who says no?

[caninatl04]

A playoff rotation is only four deep.  If the Twins trade for a starter, then two current starters get moved to the pen come playoff time.  Win-win?

 

But I'd still prefer they trade for rental RPs.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Speaking of the Nationals...

 

Anthony Rendon + Sean Doolittle for Sano + Duran. 

 

Who says no?

The Nationals? With his strikeouts/defense/position/health, it feels like Sano might be capped at about a 125 OPS+, 3 WAR type player right now. Maybe a team can get him to unlock more potential, but that takes time, and Sano only has 2 years of team control left after 2019.

 

That player profile isn't bad, but for just 2 seasons of that at arb salaries for a NL team (no DH option), that's probably a light return for Rendon, no? Especially if they are also giving up the inside track at re-signing Rendon -- if they want to compete in 2020-2021, they're probably better off keeping Doolittle and doing their best to sign Rendon.

Edited June 19, 2019 by spycake

[curt1965]

The problem I have with dealing Sano is it means either the Turtle will have to take over full time 3rd base or Gonzalez gets moved out of super utility role (which is what gives him quite a bit of his value).

With the way Sano has been hitting lately I think he should be pinch hit for late in the game.

I think the Twins are a better team without Sano right now. I’d love for them to put Arrenz at 3rd to get a persistent hitter that gets on base consistently, granted without the HR’s. Sano is a HR or bust guy who will always be a .220 hitter.

[markos]

 

The Nationals? With his strikeouts/defense/position/health, it feels like Sano might be capped at about a 125 OPS+, 3 WAR type player right now. Maybe a team can get him to unlock more potential, but that takes time, and Sano only has 2 years of team control left after 2019.

 

That player profile isn't bad, but for just 2 seasons of that at arb salaries for a NL team (no DH option), that's probably a light return for Rendon, no? Especially if they are also giving up the inside track at re-signing Rendon -- if they want to compete in 2020-2021, they're probably better off keeping Doolittle and doing their best to sign Rendon.

I don't disagree with anything you said. Sano is a tough guy to value. I was trying to frame it in terms similar to the Machado trade last year (also a rental). The Machado deal was headlined by a 50 FV, back-of-the-top-100-list player in Diaz. Someone not unlike Larnach. Now, I personally think Sano > Larnach/Diaz or someone of that ilk, even if he only has 2 years of team control left. And the fact that Sano can play 1B (which the Nationals need) would allow them to still make a big run at resigning Rendon this offseason. It would also help the Nationals try to contend next year, whereas a prospect might not play right away.

 

But now that I think about it more, my suggestion is obviously undervaluing Doolittle. Sano+Duran is probably close enough for just Rendon, but the Nats would need another really good piece to include Doolittle.

[Tomj14]

 

I think the Twins are a better team without Sano right now. I’d love for them to put Arrenz at 3rd to get a persistent hitter that gets on base consistently, granted without the HR’s. Sano is a HR or bust guy who will always be a .220 hitter.

Not sure I am comfortable putting a rookie at starting 3B who has played the following games as third base.

2015 - 2
2016 - 3
2017 - 0
2018 - 32
2019 - 19

 

I would let Sano start and be ready to pinch hit for him later in the game. I would even feel better when Ehire is back. ( My mind could be changed if Arraez keeps hitting around .300 and doesn;t butcher 3rd base)

[SarasotaBill]

I hope any trade includes quantity instead of quality prospects.

 

Trade 2-3 2nd tier prospects instead of one 1st tier prospect.

 

The Twins roster is going to get expensive (especially SP) and they need low cost replacements.

 

My 1st tier untouchable list:

Lewis

Kirilloff

Balazovic

Graterol

Duran

Enlow

 

1st Tier Nearly untouchable

Larnach

Javier

Rooker

Arraez

Rortvedt

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't disagree with anything you said. Sano is a tough guy to value. I was trying to frame it in terms similar to the Machado trade last year (also a rental). The Machado deal was headlined by a 50 FV, back-of-the-top-100-list player in Diaz. Someone not unlike Larnach. Now, I personally think Sano > Larnach/Diaz or someone of that ilk, even if he only has 2 years of team control left. And the fact that Sano can play 1B (which the Nationals need) would allow them to still make a big run at resigning Rendon this offseason. It would also help the Nationals try to contend next year, whereas a prospect might not play right away.

 

But now that I think about it more, my suggestion is obviously undervaluing Doolittle. Sano+Duran is probably close enough for just Rendon, but the Nats would need another really good piece to include Doolittle.

It's an interesting idea, to be sure.

 

The thing about Machado was, the Orioles had very little leverage. Zero chance to re-sign him, and zero need/interest too. Potential suitors could start out just beating the value of the comp pick. If the Machado deal is your valuation basis of your offer for Rendon, Washington is very likely to turn it down, I think.

 

And I'm not sure if 2 years of Sano at 1B (and with arb-2 and arb-3 salaries based on him playing 3B) brings that much value either. Find another Adams, or Kendrick, or Cron? They don't really need to spend assets like rental Rendon or even Doolittle to get their 2020-2021 first baseman.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Teams will overpay for playoff caliber starters and late inning relievers with team control. Larnach will not be enough. He loses value as a corner player and he hasn’t shown great power in high A.

 

Larnach is a 22 year old in the most pitcher-friendly professional league there is.  He's 4th in SLG, He's 1st in doubles, tied for 20th in homers (and it should be noted, only 3 guys have more than 8 homers; one big series and he pops up to top 10 easily).  He's leading the league in average (one of only 4 guys above .300), and is third in OBP.

 

This might be heretical, but I'm increasingly open to the idea that Larnach is on a par with Kiriloff.  Kiriloff's OPS+ of 168 as a 20 year old in A+ is definitely better than Larnach's 150 as a 22 year old in the same league, but if Kiriloff will get you a much better return, I'm ok with trading Kiriloff to keep Larnach.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Both Gibson and Pineda are without question trending in the right direction. I don't think a 2 game sample size on Gibson is at all fair either. WHIP can be all over the place in that number of games. I'm a bit concerned bout Perez. He is trending in the wrong direction though I do think he could be a solution in the pen with his 2 good pitches. 

 

I do think adding a starter makes sense, but I'm not really a fan of aiming low. I'd want a guy like Matt Boyd, Syndergard, etc. 

 

Agree with this.  Strip out Gibson's first two starts, when he was still trying to gain weight/strength, and here's what you get;

 

11 starts, 3.38 FIP, 3.18 xFIP, 9.4 k/9, 1.6 bb/9, completely reasonable .287 babip and 74.4% lob.

 

That FIP puts him at 20th in the league, just behind Greinke, while the xFIP puts him 7th, just behind Strasburg, and ahead of deGrom.  Not too shabby for a 3rd starter.

 

Even if you don't strip out those first two starts, Gibson is 11th in xFIP; Berrios is 38th and Odorizzi is 44th.

[jorgenswest]

I hope any trade includes quantity instead of quality prospects.

 

Trade 2-3 2nd tier prospects instead of one 1st tier prospect.

 

The Twins roster is going to get expensive (especially SP) and they need low cost replacements.

 

My 1st tier untouchable list:

Lewis

Kirilloff

Balazovic

Graterol

Duran

Enlow

 

1st Tier Nearly untouchable

Larnach

Javier

Rooker

Arraez

Rortvedt

Consider it from the other end.

 

What kind of prospects would you want the Twins to pursue? Quantity or quality?

 

I am in the quality camp.

[SarasotaBill]

Last year the Twins got quantity prospects for their players.

[jorgenswest]

Last year the Twins got quantity prospects for their players.

That really all comes down to the Pressly trade. They received back the preseason 10 and 14 prospects both 40s. There are similarly rated prospects in your quality list.

 

I would agree that the two trend towards quantity. Everybody has similarly rated prospects. The challenge is that beyond Lewis, Kirilloff and Graterol any other team can play in that market.

 

Pitching is the best trade currency and the untouchable list has four of their best pitching assets. I would hang up and call someone else if I was told those pitching prospects were untouchable. If the Twins want to get a pitcher at the top of the bullpen or rotation it is going to hurt. They will lose quality prospects.

[SarasotaBill]

Celestino and Alcala are MLB pre-season #15 & #18 Twin prospects and rated 45.

 

50 prospects not on protected list: Thorpe, Gordon, Gonsalves, Baddoo.

 

Plus a number of 45s.

 

Not to re-hash the Ramos-Capps trade but I certainly don't want to repeat it.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Celestino and Alcala are MLB pre-season #15 & #18 Twin prospects and rated 45.

 

50 prospects not on protected list: Thorpe, Gordon, Gonsalves, Baddoo.

 

Plus a number of 45s.

 

Not to re-hash the Ramos-Capps trade but I certainly don't want to repeat it.

Interesting. MLB's list had 27 guys at 45 or above; Fangraphs only had 8.

 

I've never really check the MLB values before -- are they just inflated overall, compared to Fangraphs?

[jorgenswest]

Interesting. MLB's list had 27 guys at 45 or above; Fangraphs only had 8.

I've never really check the MLB values before -- are they just inflated overall, compared to Fangraphs?

I believe so. MLB is playing to a more general audience and the reality of only a handful of guys in each system projected to be an average major league regular is not going to excite a fan base.

[Riverbrian]

 

I hope any trade includes quantity instead of quality prospects.

 

Trade 2-3 2nd tier prospects instead of one 1st tier prospect.

 

The Twins roster is going to get expensive (especially SP) and they need low cost replacements.

 

My 1st tier untouchable list:

Lewis

Kirilloff

Balazovic

Graterol

Duran

Enlow

 

1st Tier Nearly untouchable

Larnach

Javier

Rooker

Arraez

Rortvedt

 

[Linus]

I say all are in play for the right deal as there are areas of surplus. Both Lewis and Kiriloff have strong fellow prospects at their position. As long as we don’t deplete one position area I am fine dealing anyone. Hell we don’t even know if Lewis will end up being the best SS in our system. I’m thinking Javier might be the SS of the future. If you can get a stud controllable pitcher for him go for it