It's how we got Escobar in the first place. I wasn't pleased to get 2 minor leaguers for Liriano. It worked out.

What were the Twins playoff odds on July 31, 2012? Looks like we were 4th place, 12 games out in the division... similar deficit in the wild card race (although behind more teams, obviously).

 

What were their odds of re-signing Liriano and actually fixing him?

What were the Twins playoff odds on July 31, 2012? Looks like we were 4th place, 12 games out in the division... similar deficit in the wild card race (although behind more teams, obviously).

 

What were their odds of re-signing Liriano and actually fixing him?

Not sure odds for 2012 are available, but they are 1.4% today, so probably pretty close.

 

What’s the liriano section of your post mean?

Not sure odds for 2012 are available, but they are 1.4% today, so probably pretty close.

 

What’s the liriano section of your post mean?

See the post I quoted, it was about the original Escobar trade (for Liriano).

 

1.4% by some projections, 9% by others (Fangraphs season to date stats mode). 12.5% by coin flip, which is not necessarily unreasonable considering it is just us vs Cleveland with a lot of head to head games remaining. I'd guess our 2012 odds were below 1% by any measure.

See the post I quoted, it was about the original Escobar trade (for Liriano).

 

1.4% by some projections, 9% by others (Fangraphs season to date stats mode). 12.5% by coin flip, which is not necessarily unreasonable considering it is just us vs Cleveland with a lot of head to head games remaining. I'd guess our 2012 odds were below 1% by any measure.

I’m confused what you meant about resigning him? Are you saying the Twins can’t resign Escobar? This trade doesn’t change that

I’m confused what you meant about resigning him? Are you saying the Twins can’t resign Escobar? This trade doesn’t change that

No, sorry, it was a reference to Liriano circa 2012 again.

Two org top 20 prospects and a throw in is more than I was expecting. Hoping Escobar re-signs for 2-3 years in the offseason.

All I can say is that I hope the rest of the regular season proves to the FO that they need a third baseman.

 

All I can say is that I hope the rest of the regular season proves to the FO that they need a third baseman.

 

Even if Sano crushes it, they will need corner IF/DH help. I highly doubt they pick up Morrison's option, and I'm not sure resigning Mauer for a starting role at this point makes a lot of sense either.

All I can say is that I hope the rest of the regular season proves to the FO that they need a third baseman.

As long as we are hoping, my preference is to hope that Sano shows us he is that third baseman.

No, sorry, it was a reference to Liriano circa 2012 again.

A lot of discussion stemmed from my simple observation that, when we traded Liriano, I was disappointed to receive two middling minor leaguers instead of one stud prospect. As events unfolded, the trade worked out pretty well for the Twins anyway. I was saying nothing more than that, concerning this trade.

A lot of discussion stemmed from my simple observation that, when we traded Liriano, I was disappointed to receive two middling minor leaguers instead of one stud prospect. As events unfolded, the trade worked out pretty well for the Twins anyway. I was saying nothing more than that, concerning this trade.

Sorry, didn't mean to pile on! I also didn't realize your preferred alternative was "one stud prospect" since I didn't consider that a viable alternative in return for Liriano.

 

Although if you said it just to placate those who wanted "one stud prospect" for Escobar now, I understand.

Sorry, didn't mean to pile on! I also didn't realize your preferred alternative was "one stud prospect" since I didn't consider that a viable alternative in return for Liriano.

 

Although if you said it just to placate those who wanted "one stud prospect" for Escobar now, I understand.

Yeah, "Stud" might be overstating my expectations back then. Instead of two 45-prospects, I'd want one 50. That sort of thing.

 

Point being, the other team prefers that too. It's far less linear than I think it was a generation or two ago - analytics has clarified some of these kinds of issues, so that GMs all think pretty much alike.

 

From Fangraphs on 7/26/2018:

 

Gabriel Maciel, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 19   Org Rank: 18   FV: 40
Line: 2-for-4, 2B

Notes
The 19-year-old Brazilian has hit in every July game in which he’s played and is riding an 18-game streak, including multi-hit games in eight of his past 10. Maciel was hitting .249/.336/.305 on July 1 and is now at .291/.367/.338. He’s a plus-plus running center fielder with very limited physicality, but he understands what his offensive approach has to be to reach base and he has played well-executed small-ball throughout his pro career. There’s risk that this style of hitting won’t play against better defenses and that Maciel winds up as a bench outfielder.

 

From Fangraphs on 6/18/2018:

Jhoan Duran, RHP, Diamondbacks: If you’re looking for a deep-ish sleeper to keep an eye on, Duran is a name to know. He has a great pitcher’s frame but room to continue to get stronger and perhaps pick up even more velo. He’s already in the 94-98 mph range with his fastball, though, and it’s really the secondary offerings (breaking ball, change) that need the most focus. As is, Duran uses his height to create excellent downward plane on his heater and most hitters simply pound the ball into the air. He can miss bats, too, and has whiffed 47 batters in 41 innings since joining low-A ball in early May. The swing-and-miss ability paired with ground-ball tendencies makes him an extremely attractive pitching prospect and this 20-year-old hurler could be a valuable reliever if the secondary stuff doesn’t develop enough for him to be an impact starter.

 

The prospect rankings of the 3 prospects acquired add up to 30. If they'd reduced that to just 1 prospect, he'd have been #10.

C'mon. It's just math.

For actual content:
FG was pretty positive in their off/earlyseason prospect list on Jhoan specifically...

Duran’s delivery is silky smooth and he generates big heat, sitting 93-96 and touching 99. His strike-throwing ability and secondary stuff were both better when I saw him this spring, with the slider and changeup each flashing plus. Duran has some maturity issues — or at least he did last year — but if he were a college righty with this stuff he’d probably go somewhere in the first round.

I thought our favorite team would partially fill the gap of starting pitching between Cedar Rapids and Rochester at the deadline. One for Escobar and then one for Pressly. At some point in time, starting pitching comes down to a numbers game.

Edited July 30, 20188 yr by howieramone2

Well this is more of a minor league topic, but the A ball pitcher we traded Escobar for, Jhoan Duran has a no-no through 6 innings for our A ball affiliate Cedar Rapids.

Well this is more of a minor league topic, but the A ball pitcher we traded Escobar for, Jhoan Duran has a no-no through 6 innings for our A ball affiliate Cedar Rapids.

Duran has 7 no hit innings, 8 k’s 1bb