Article: Dozier’s Days Numbered, Then What?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I am able to look it up if you like though I don’t think the sample is large enough to be considered meaningful. It really would be mathematically best to combine the 2017 with 2018 for wRC+, OPS+ or other slas stat driven data.

 

2017 is his best year in years......

 

Here is where he is over the last 2.5 years among first baseman with at least 500 ABs over that time (200 per year) since the number of qualifiers is too low to be meaningful:

 

18th in the majors - remember, that includes his best year in years

 

Adding in 2015,,,,,

 

20th.

 

that's WAR, so it includes defense. Taking out defense:

 

Mauer is 46th among 1B in offense since 2015....

31st in offense only since 2016

 

[Jham]

I'm not even against signing Joe back of we are willing to A Rod or Ichiro the situation if he's bad or the team needs his spot.

 

Mostly I just don't think Gordon is even a lateral move next year. And I don't think the market will love either Mauer or Dozier. And we'll have tons of money either way. If we get a good offer, take it. If not, who cares? There are lots of reasons to be a baseball fan that don't involve winning every single world series. Twins fans, of all fans, should understand this.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I very much agree with this, but for me, the much more important point is that Dozier is the more "replaceable" player using existing assets. Escobar can play 2B for the remainder of 2018 without a horrific fall-off (IMO), whereas, without Escobar, if a need arises at any of the infield positions, the fall-off is fairly precipitous from Escobar to Adrianza, Gordon, Petit, et al. I'm hoping for a nice overpay for Dozier and hoping Escobar stays.

A completely fair take and the way I am leaning right now. Dozier is the better player, that shouldn't even be in question.

 

Whether he's more valuable to this particular team is the real question.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Seriously. We're talking about Dozier signing a $5m per year contract for three seasons. Let's bring this back to the original statement and consider the absurdity of it.

 

If we want to talk whether he'll get $8m per for two seasons, I guess that's a conversation we can have but it's likely still wrong. Even in a depressed market, Dozier is a $10-12m player easily because seriously, he's a five win player.

 

GMs are not stupid. One will find a way to fit a player like Brian Dozier into their lineup for $8m a year. At least one will also do it for $10m a year.

 

Even if Dozier ends this season with a .750 OPS, I'd toss him $12m on a make good season because why the **** not? People simultaneously accuse GMs of being idiots and brilliant. Taking on Dozier for $12m in a season (literally 80%+ of the three season total originally posted) is a no-brainer because you're paying less than 10% of your payroll for a potential 4-6 win player. That's a risk you take every day.

you’re a 5 win player until you’re not. The risk/reward of free agency...

 

Earlier this season, there was a new low to the depths of streakiness Dozier had embodied. He’s turning it around now, so there’s some gas left in the tank.

 

His recent performance most likely shortened his next contract, but the annual average is still prolly going to be in the 10-12 mil range, just as if it would have been if 2018 mirrored 2017. Only 2-3 years instead of 4-5...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I really don't understand where some of you are getting Escobar's "consistency".

 

OPS by year:

 

2015: .754

2016: .618

2017: .758

2018: .834

 

First/Second half OPS splits:

 

2015: .688/.816

2016: .658/.573

2017: .759/.757

2018: ??

 

In only one year was Escobar pretty consistently okay... unless you also want to give him credit for "consistency" the year he was consistently awful. But even in that consistently "okay" season, he was so far below Dozier's season line that the two are not comparable in value.

 

I like Escobar but let's not build fake narratives to support keeping him.

I strongly disagree.

 

Many (most?) players ebb and flow over the course of a season. So unless you can hold up some other valuable players who bat right at their league average for most of the season, I will not agree that Escobar's unequal halfs are much worth noting. Also, Escobar has positional flexibility. Maybe most importantly, he is a positive influence in the clubhouse. I think "chemistry" and "leadership" can be overrated, but it can't be dismissed, and Escobar brings it in spades.

 

Dozier and Escobar are probably my favorite players however I understand changes need to be made to move forward. Of the two, I'd keep Escobar.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Many (most?) players ebb and flow over the course of a season. So unless you can hold up some other valuable players who bat right at their league average for most of the season, I will not agree that Escobar's unequal halfs are much worth noting.

That's not my point. The stats were not to show that something is wrong with Escobar, it's to point out that highlighting Escobar's "consistency" as a reason to keep him over Dozier is a bad argument.

 

Dozier is the better player. He was before and it's likely he'll end 2018 as a better player.

 

That doesn't mean Dozier is a better fit for the 2019+ Twins but it does mean the Escobar "consistency" argument is garbage.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

That's not my point. The stats were not to show that something is wrong with Escobar, it's to point out that highlighting Escobar's "consistency" as a reason to keep him over Dozier is a bad argument.

 

Dozier is the better player. He was before and it's likely he'll end 2018 as a better player.

 

That doesn't mean Dozier is a better fit for the 2019+ Twins but it does mean the Escobar "consistency" argument is garbage.

Got it! My bad for not reading the whole thread. But Dozier can be so up-and-down it's hard not to argue Escobar's "consistency" would be a factor.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Got it! My bad for not reading the whole thread. But Dozier can be so up-and-down it's hard not to argue Escobar's "consistency" would be a factor.

And my point is that "it's not".

 

Just to drive the point home, these are the first/second half splits of Escobar and Dozier from last year (literally the only "consistent" year Escobar has had in his career):

 

Escobar: .759/.757 (consistent!)

Dozier: .745/.985 (what?!?!)

 

Which player do you want next year?

[TheLeviathan]

Dozier's inconsistency is an issue though.  For the first half of the season we were sticking a sub-700 OPS player in key places in the lineup hoping for the corner to turn.

 

Now, you could argue the manager should've been hitting him 8th until his binge, but we also know Brian Dozier gets easily poutyif he doesn't hit where he wants to hit.  And there is always a high chance that "corner to turn" is never going to come.

 

I'd still rather have Dozier because of the upside, but his consistency issues have always really bugged me.  I don't have a problem with a guy having slumps and streaks, that's natural.  But this half-season feast or famine stuff just isn't the kind of play I'd like to invest in long-term.  

[alarp33]

 

 

 

Escobar: .759/.757 (consistent!)

Dozier: .745/.985 (what?!?!)

 

Which player do you want next year?

 

 

I'm supposed to answer what player I want in 2019 based on a 1st half / 2nd half split of 2017?

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm supposed to answer what player I want in 2019 based on a 1st half / 2nd half split of 2017?

Okay, let me say it again:

 

My Escobar split post was in response to people claiming he's consistent and that's a reason to keep him over Dozier. The only year Eduardo was consistent, he posted the same first half numbers as Dozier while Brian absolutely destroyed him in the second half.

 

Please keep the post in context. It is not an argument whether to keep Dozier and/or Escobar, it's a rebuttal to a terrible (and incorrect) reason why to keep one over the other.

 

Also, you edited out the part where I explained that in the post you quoted.

[MangLitch]

So maybe this is the wrong area for this, but in looking at this from a perspective of either/or I would look at it this way. I don't want either for 2019.... (GASP)

 

Here is the way I see the year playing out:

 

- Dozier catches fire, as he seems to be getting a groove here. If he continues up to the deadline, I keep him. Rental package wont be much and I would risk the QO path that he declines and signs a bigger deal. I just don't think the package we get back for him for 3 months is going to be better than a comp pick. Teams will always be able to leverage the first half of the year for a discount. 

 

- I trade Escobar immediately. His value is high and probably higher than it will ever be. See Ya. Awesome value player but not long term piece.

 

The fact is, this team will only really be a contender for the next 5 years if Sano is at third and some prospect is at second/Short (Gordon or whoever). We are going to need the salary relief since our ownership isnt going to a 200M dollar payroll. Dozier is far to streaky to be taking up long term payroll. I get it, he is a fantastic hitter in the 2nd half but man is it tough to be 8 games back by AllStar week every year. 

 

I know we are worried about 3rd base, but if Sano truly is a flop we have much larger issues. This whole window was largely pegged on him being a top 25 hitter. 

 

In the event that we would need Dozier and Escobar around in the future would tell me we are very close to blowing the whole thing up anyways. 

 

But if you are gonna force me to pick one, Escobar. The flexibility he brings is a huge asset and allows the team to be creative with lineups (whether or not they properly utilize it)

Edited July 18, 2018 by MangLitch

[alarp33]

 

Okay, let me say it again:

 

My Escobar split post was in response to people claiming he's consistent and that's a reason to keep him over Dozier. The only year Eduardo was consistent, he posted the same first half numbers as Dozier while Brian absolutely destroyed him in the second half.

 

Please keep the post in context. It is not an argument whether to keep Dozier and/or Escobar, it's a rebuttal to a terrible (and incorrect) reason why to keep one over the other.

 

Also, you edited out the part where I explained that in the post you quoted.

 

Right, I get your point. But providing 2017 splits and ignoring age, 2018, cost, position etc. makes it impossible to answer the question you asked at the end of your post

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Right, I get your point. But providing 2017 splits and ignoring age, 2018, cost, position etc. makes it impossible to answer the question you asked at the end of your post

I made it pretty clear that I was addressing the consistency argument. I also said in this very thread that I'm leaning toward keeping Escobar over Dozier due to those other reasons you listed.

 

I clarified my point again just two posts above the post you originally quoted.

[alarp33]

 

 

 

The fact is, this team will only really be a contender for the next 5 years if Sano is at third and some prospect is at second/Short (Gordon or whoever). We are going to need the salary relief since our ownership isnt going to a 200M dollar payroll. Dozier is far to streaky to be taking up long term payroll. I get it, he is a fantastic hitter in the 2nd half but man is it tough to be 8 games back by AllStar week every year. 

 

I know we are worried about 3rd base, but if Sano truly is a flop we have much larger issues. This whole window was largely pegged on him being a top 25 hitter. 

 

 

There is enough concern surrounding Sano and his bat, conditioning, etc. I would not advise the Twins add to that giant concern by saying he has to be able to stay at 3B for 5 years to be valuable. 

[MangLitch]

 

There is enough concern surrounding Sano and his bat, conditioning, etc. I would not advise the Twins add to that giant concern by saying he has to be able to stay at 3B for 5 years to be valuable. 

 

Understandable, but this isn't a life or death situation. You go into 2019 with the thought process that he will be at 3rd base and you can possibly spend extra money at 1B & DH with Mauer (& probably Morrison) coming off the books. 

 

My confusing thesis was, You roll into 2019 with the thought process that Sano is 3B and one of your prospects takes over at 2B/SS with Polanco. You hopefully take your extra money and fortify 1B/DH/RP/SP. You QO Dozier for a comp pick (assuming he does his normal 2nd half bit) and you trade escobar now to maximize value. 

 

If Sano doesn't pan out, I think you have a pretty sizable hole in your window. Sano would have been a cost friendly bat to a mid budget team. In the end, you arent making a 5 year commitment to anything, nor have I suggested that. I just meant to say that if your plan to be a contender for years to come is to happen, I have to believe Sano is a very vital cog in that wheel. Otherwise you are stuck waiting for other prospects or spending large at the hot corner..... One of these is nearly impossible as we have seen. 

 

So long story longer, I don't believe you should try to keep any of these guys. You roll with your window and I dont think either of these two move the needle. I get keeping Escobar purely as insurance. But if you can get something like a lottery ticket for him. I take it

Edited July 18, 2018 by MangLitch

[alarp33]

 

 

 

If Sano doesn't pan out, I think you have a pretty sizable hole in your window. Sano would have been a cost friendly bat to a mid budget team. In the end, you arent making a 5 year commitment to anything, nor have I suggested that. I just meant to say that if your plan to be a contender for years to come is to happen, I have to believe Sano is a very vital cog in that wheel. Otherwise you are stuck waiting for other prospects or spending large at the hot corner..... One of these is nearly impossible as we have seen. 

 

So long story longer, I don't believe you should try to keep any of these guys. You roll with your window and I dont think either of these two move the needle. I get keeping Escobar purely as insurance. But if you can get something like a lottery ticket for him. I take it

 

We are in agreement if Sano doesn't pan out the Twins are in trouble, and that he is a very vital cog. I guess my point is, why not plan for him to be your every day 1st baseman, or 1B/DH... and have an Escobar, or FA ready to go at 3B. Doesn't that seem less risky than getting rid of your only other 3B option on the roster. 

 

Sure, for that plan to work Sano needs to stay healthy and hit, but to me that seems more likely to happen at 1B than at 3b. Not to mention, they are likely a better defensive team with Sano at 1B and Escobar at 3B than they are with Sano at 3b

Edited July 18, 2018 by alarp33

[Kelly Vance]

 

No, it’s really not.

Find us two examples. First basemen who play no other position and get a couple days off per week.

It is called platooning.  Teams do it at a lot of different positions, usually based on RH versus LH hitting players matching up against the pitcher. Think of Sano and EE as a 3b platoon if you will. Mauer and a RH hitting backup/DH would be good.

 

Plus Joe's critics never think about how having Joe around is a stabilizing factor on the younger guys. How Joe goes about his business sets a good example in the clubhouse and Joe will hopefully be 100 percent next year..

 

 

.

 

[USAFChief]

It is called platooning. Teams do it at a lot of different positions, usually based on RH versus LH hitting players matching up against the pitcher. Think of Sano and EE as a 3b platoon if you will. Mauer and a RH hitting backup/DH would be good.

 

Plus Joe's critics never think about how having Joe around is a stabilizing factor on the younger guys. How Joe goes about his business sets a good example in the clubhouse and Joe will hopefully be 100 percent next year..

 

 

.

I understand the concept of platooning. True platoons were a great way to squeeze production out of a position back when pitching staffs were 10 or 11.

 

True platoons are virtually nonexistent these days. If you see one it's probably at an outfield spot, where teams carry an extra player anyway.

 

I stand by my opinion it's tough to carry a part time 1st baseman, particularly when you're not getting all that much from him when he does play.

[caninatl04]

At least two reports that Machado going to the Dodgers for the Dodgers' #4 prospect Yusniel Diaz.

 

So, with the Dodgers "off the board", what would be Dozier's most likely destination should he be traded? Milwaukee?

[yarnivek1972]

If the FO goes into 2019 assuming Sano is their everyday third baseman without a viable plan B that would be - well, exactly what the saying is for when one assumes something. He has yet to play even 85 games at third in a season. To expect him to all of a sudden play 130-140 would be foolish to say the least. And let’s not forget, when he plays third, he does so very poorly.

[nicksaviking]

 

It is called platooning.  Teams do it at a lot of different positions, usually based on RH versus LH hitting players matching up against the pitcher. Think of Sano and EE as a 3b platoon if you will. Mauer and a RH hitting backup/DH would be good.

 

Plus Joe's critics never think about how having Joe around is a stabilizing factor on the younger guys. How Joe goes about his business sets a good example in the clubhouse and Joe will hopefully be 100 percent next year..

 

 

I don't know why we'd expect a guy who can't stay healthy to suddenly get healthy at 36.

 

Joe might go about his business in a professional manner and not get into trouble, but if he was actually a clubhouse leader who helped make an impact on the young guys, I doubt every free agent rumor we'd hear each off season would be about a corner/DH type who the team desperately wants for his leadership qualities.

[MangLitch]

 

We are in agreement if Sano doesn't pan out the Twins are in trouble, and that he is a very vital cog. I guess my point is, why not plan for him to be your every day 1st baseman, or 1B/DH... and have an Escobar, or FA ready to go at 3B. Doesn't that seem less risky than getting rid of your only other 3B option on the roster. 

 

Sure, for that plan to work Sano needs to stay healthy and hit, but to me that seems more likely to happen at 1B than at 3b. Not to mention, they are likely a better defensive team with Sano at 1B and Escobar at 3B than they are with Sano at 3b

 

You lose quite a bit of value and punch with him at 1B. His bat could be elite 3B and would probably be a little above average 1B. (I think)

 

Absolutely you could do it. But I think Escobar will push to start somewhere and likely deserves to. I just do not think its here. You can contingency plan for sure, but I would rather have a go next year with Sano at 3rd and a FA bat at 1B/DH versus just outright moving him. 

 

If it doesn't work out, then move him to 1B 2020 and see what you have for 3B options. I have to believe you can find an Escobar replacement in FA. 

 

Just for the record, I wouldn't be mad if the Twins kept Escobar. I just do not see him starting here and us being a title contender. We need these young bats to really push the bar. 

Edited July 18, 2018 by MangLitch

[Kelly Vance]

 

I don't know why we'd expect a guy who can't stay healthy to suddenly get healthy at 36.

 

Joe might go about his business in a professional manner and not get into trouble, but if he was actually a clubhouse leader who helped make an impact on the young guys, I doubt every free agent rumor we'd hear each off season would be about a corner/DH type who the team desperately wants for his leadership qualities.

So, a guy plays over a decade for his home town team, is a multiple time Allstar. Wins a gold glove at catcher and MVP and three batting crowns and moves to a new positions and gets a concussion.

 

and yet you describe him as A GUY WHO CANNOT STAY HEALTHY.

 

Wow!!!!   

 

 

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

So, a guy plays over a decade for his home town team, is a multiple time Allstar. Wins a gold glove at catcher and MVP and three batting crowns and moves to a new positions and gets a concussion.

 

and yet you describe him as A GUY WHO CANNOT STAY HEALTHY.

 

Wow!!!!   

 

Those are not mutually exclusive.  The prior achievements took place before health issues took over.

 

We're in 2018, if you have a time machine to bring us 2009 Joe Mauer to the present day, then all of that would be helpful and relevant.  (And pretty awesome, though I'd probably use the time machine for better purposes.  Probably)

[jsteve96]

 

I think Ted might have this one backwards. If I was Derek and Thad, I'd trade Escobar, keep Dozier. Escobar would likely bring in more trade value at this point. Let Dozier continue to heat up. Give him a qualifying offer at the end of the season (which he would turn down) and gain the draft pick. Go after Escobar again in the off-season.

This does leave a hole at Third for the rest of this season. You basically hope Sano figures it out and can return to the hot corner. Gordon comes up next year.

after last offseason, and dozier on an off year, no chance he turns down a 1 year 18 mil deal. 

[gocgo]

 

I am not convinced that Dozier gets traded.  We tend to look at it from the Twins perspective, but looking at it from the buyers point of view, I'm not sure it makes sense to trade for him. 

 

The teams that I've heard as being potential suitors - Boston, Milwaukee, Dodgers, Seattle.

 

Boston - Pedroia probably out for the year.  Makes sense for them to pick up a rental.  Jed Lowrie, Scooter Gennett, Brian Dozier, Whit Merrifield.  You get your pick of those 4.  Yes, Dozier starting to heat up.Yes, Billie Beane says they are buyers, but let's be honest, there's a lot of BS that gets spewed this time of year to position for the best deal.  The A's are further back in the division than the Twins and they have 2 teams to hurdle in a tough division.  Lowrie is older than Dozier and the A's have needs.  It makes sense to move him rather than extend him.  Gennett says he doesn't think he'll be traded.  Maybe, but what would you do if you were the GM of a team in last place and had a sell high asset?  I'd listen to the offers.  Ditto for Whit Merrifield.

 

Milwaukee - they are in the Machado sweepstakes and here's the interesting thing.  If you are the Orioles, your are selling...but if you're smart you are taking offers right down to the wire.  That could easily handcuff some teams as the pieces involved in the Machado offer will be tied up.  Unless they are willing to fold their hand in the Machado game, it will make it tough to move forward on other deals.

 

Dodgers - Jose DeLeon was the offer last year and we didn't like it.  New year, new circumstances, but the offer certainly isn't going to go up.  I'm not convinced we will get an offer that will make sense for the Twins given our recent surge.

 

Seattle - Robinson Cano.  They get him back for the last 6 weeks, but will miss him for the playoffs should they make it.  Does it make sense to trade for Dozier when they get Cano back on August 14 for the playoff push.  Right now, they have the second wild card.  So, do you trade for Dozier for a couple of weeks and a possible wildcard game?  Assuming that I have to pay more than a bag of peanut M&M's, my answer is no.

 

There may be other teams that are interested, but I'm going to say that Dozier and his glorious hair stay in Minnesota for the rest of the year.

Now with the early removal of Machado from the mix, the Brew Crew makes the most sense...unless we continue the tear on the 10 game road trip.

[mikelink45]

 

Sorry, but I just shake my head at that.  You wanna double down on saying that Brian Dozier has contributed "Nothing of value" then I get to wonder about what you are seeing as opposed to what I am seeing.  Dozier is hitting almost 300 in July. Yeah, a little late, you'd say. So I have to challenge the bias.Because you seem to want to find fault.

 

Being 7.5 games back on July 13 is no worse than being 7.5 games behind in May.  They don't give trophies for mid season success. There is still a ways to go and the Twins could make a run. 

 

But I don't understand the hate for Doze. He plays hard, and he plays every day. He is more loyal than your trusted hunting dog. And I will tell you this.  He gives everything he has every day. He never dogs it on a ground out and we have all seen him dive for balls whenever.... well, whenever he needs to dive to make the play. 

 

Baseball at this level is hard. Failure is expected because it happens to most everyone 75 percent of the time.  The best only hit safely 3 out of 10 times.

 

Saying Doze is having a slow start or an off year is valid. Saying he has added nothing of value is not only unfair, but it is untrue. .    

Just finished listening to the KC series - and I repeat, Dozier, that amazing old vet has done nothing for us this year. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

With Escobar and Pressly gone, Dozier is a lock to be traded right?

[Riverbrian]

 

With Escobar and Pressly gone, Dozier is a lock to be traded right?

 

You'd think but Moustakas going to the Brewers may force Shaw to shift to 2B. 

 

Whose left? Red Sox?