Article: Dozier’s Days Numbered, Then What?

[Kelly Vance]

 

You need put the pipe down fellow!

This team is mediocre and nothing will change that, not Buxton or Sano.

And for that matter, Buxton and Sano are busts at this point. People need to quit pretending there suddenly going to be good. They've proven nothing yet consistently.

We dont even have a solid #2 pitcher at this point. Maybe Berrios. Gibson is having a career year but he's already 31 or so. SELL! Remember not trading Glen Perkins when we could have gotten a haul back?!

Dozier and Esco. should be traded . This team won't be competing until the next crop of youngsters, Lewis etc start coming up and having more top prospects and picks will hopefully help.

Put down the pipe?  Really?  I don't know who that was directed at, but really?. 

 

Sano and Buck are not busts. They re struggling with injuries. Calling them busts is unfair.  Saying they have shown nothing is untrue.  Sano was an All Star last year and suffered a broken leg in the line of duty.  Buck won a platinum glove and had a breakout year. This year he broke his toe and played hurt. He was playing in pain, yet he ran hard on every play. He doesn't deserve such unfair criticism.

 

Gibson is not only a solid #2, he is pitching as well as practically everyone in the league. You say move him... for what?  I say keep him... extend him for 3 years. It is a different market than when Perk was playing. That is a fair disagreement. 

 

Lot of people think Doze and EE should be traded. I am not one of them. I don't think Gordon is ready, for one thing. And I don't think this team is a bust. It just had a 9-2 homestand (although I concede it followed a 1-8 road trip). That is .500 ball over 20 games. That is a modest improvement.  I don't think you throw in the towel just yet. I'd listen to offers for everyone not named Jose or Eddie. But I'd give Doze and EE QO tenders at season end. 

 

Cheer up.  Things could get better quick if Sano and Buck come back strong, along with Erv.  

Edited July 16, 2018 by Kelly Vance

[alarp33]

 

 

 

That is .500 ball over 20 games. That is a modest improvement.  I don't think you throw in the towel just yet.

 

 

 

They need to play at roughly a 102 win pace for the rest of the season to win 86 games which will catch Cleveland if Cle plays only .500 ball for the rest of the season. .500 ball over 20 games is semi meaningless 

[Kelly Vance]

 

They need to play at roughly a 102 win pace for the rest of the season to win 86 games which will catch Cleveland if Cle plays only .500 ball for the rest of the season. .500 ball over 20 games is semi meaningless 

You could say that about any 20 games. But if the Twins go on a tear because the 1-8 falter was so embarrassing they woke up.  Looking back 20 games from now, you might say that these meaningless games of yours marked a turning point.  Then it could be said that the 9-2 tear was Yuge. I guess we'll see.

Edited July 16, 2018 by Kelly Vance

[alarp33]

 

You could say that about any 20 games. But if the Twins go on a tear because the 1-8 falter was overcome by the 9-2 run, looking back from 20 games from now, you might say that these meaningless games of yours marked a turning point.  Then it could be said that the 9-2 tear was Yuge. 

 

I was not commenting on what they may do over the next 20 games, I was only commenting that "playing .500 ball" is not "progress" in relation to chasing down Cle. 

[Kelly Vance]

 

I was not commenting on what they may do over the next 20 games, I was only commenting that "playing .500 ball" is not "progress" in relation to chasing down Cle. 

well, fine. But if you've been playing .480 something, then .500 IS progress, however small. But I think you might be saying it is probably (I say maybe) too little too late. 

 

Anyone remember the '69 Cubs?  

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyone remember the '69 Cubs? 

 

Yes.  They were almost good enough.  But fell short at the end...

[Major League Ready]

 

I hope they find a way to keep Dozier, Gibby, Eduardo and Joe. 

 

I hope they find a way to get better.

[laloesch]

 

Bert pointed out today that Doze is batting .294 in July.  You never woulda known it from all his "fans" on TD. 

 

Yes, because he does this every year (with the exception of 2016 / 2017).  It's not hard to understand those "fans" on TD because he doesn't show up from April - late June sometimes later.  That's half the season and part of the reason our offense was horrid up until a few weeks ago. Sorry no sympathies here.  At least Escobar is more consistent and less expensive. 

[Tomj14]

 

I hope they find a way to get better.

Not arguing, but interested in knowing for what year?

If you are thinking 2020, I would trade everybody on the team.

If you are thinking 2018, you trade for guys.

If you are thinking 2019, Gibson and Dozier probably would need to stay, unless you plan on signing multiple big time free agents, which I am not sure are available.

[bird]

 

Uh, no. 

 

In the reality of Dozier having better slash lines for the past 4 years. Escobar was a better hitter for the first 90 games of 2018, but I'd be willing to bet he isn't by the end of 2018, he won't be for this year, either.

 

I don't pay much attention to WAR, but since you do, please check Dozier's WAR over the past four years and compare it to Escobar's.

 

WPA is interesting trivia, but no way to measure worth.

 

Escobar is 1.5 years younger, and can play on the left side of the infield, so that's a plus. But as a second baseman, Dozier is the better player as of today, and I'd bet for the next couple seasons as well.

 

 

I very much agree with this, but for me, the much more important point is that Dozier is the more "replaceable" player using existing assets. Escobar can play 2B for the remainder of 2018 without a horrific fall-off (IMO), whereas, without Escobar, if a need arises at any of the infield positions, the fall-off is fairly precipitous from Escobar to Adrianza, Gordon, Petit, et al. I'm hoping for a nice overpay for Dozier and hoping Escobar stays.

[USAFChief]

 

I very much agree with this, but for me, the much more important point is that Dozier is the more "replaceable" player using existing assets. Escobar can play 2B for the remainder of 2018 without a horrific fall-off (IMO), whereas, without Escobar, if a need arises at any of the infield positions, the fall-off is fairly precipitous from Escobar to Adrianza, Gordon, Petit, et al. I'm hoping for a nice overpay for Dozier and hoping Escobar stays.

That's a fair take.

[Kelly Vance]

 

They need to play at roughly a 102 win pace for the rest of the season to win 86 games which will catch Cleveland if Cle plays only .500 ball for the rest of the season. .500 ball over 20 games is semi meaningless 

Well, since you put it that way.

[Kelly Vance]

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes.  They were almost good enough.  But fell short at the end...

 

It was a huge choke. Yuge!!!!!

 

 

I am looking for a Cleveland Indians voodoo doll and I am not watching any Major League movies to keep my warpath  (bad choice of words) going. 

[TheLeviathan]

I think it's fair to point out that while Dozier likes to have great second halves.....so do the Cleveland Indians.

[Major League Ready]

 

Not arguing, but interested in knowing for what year?

If you are thinking 2020, I would trade everybody on the team.

If you are thinking 2018, you trade for guys.

If you are thinking 2019, Gibson and Dozier probably would need to stay, unless you plan on signing multiple big time free agents, which I am not sure are available.

 

When depends a lot on what happens with Buxton / Sano. I really want to be optimistic but realistically what is the probability they turn into the elite players we need them to contend.  BTW contend (to me) does not mean for the central. Contend means a 50/50 shot at winning a playoff series. What percentage you and other TD followers put on them reaching this status.  50% seems generous. If we say 50%, the probability of both of them contributing at that level is 25%. 

 

I also have no interest in any approach that is focused on a 1-2 year window and requires we part with assets that are likely to extend the window for several years. I would be fine with keeping Gibson if we extend him or if we don't get an enticing offer. With Dozier, I am just not confident he with him going forward but I also have no idea what the minor league staff. Of course, he is a FA so I guess what we do short-term simply depends on the offer.

 

Next question is what can we pull off in FA. We can't just sign whomever we want unless the overpay is just nuts which is always a bad idea. Players want to go to certain teams and the FA market is a mechanism for them to get the best offer they can on one of a handful of teams they want to play on.  

 

I disagree with the sentiment that we should just trade everyone if we don't believe Sano / Buxton will lead us to the promise land next year. Why do that today? Whats to be gained? 

[Thrylos]

 

It was a huge choke. Yuge!!!!!

 

 

I am looking for a Cleveland Indians voodoo doll and I am not watching any Major League movies to keep my warpath  (bad choice of words) going. 

Even if Cleveland chokes, the Twins will need to beat two of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros. 

 

Good.Luck.

[jun]

Who do you want when RISP? Dozier is probably the last player I want in that situation.

[laloesch]

 

The irrational purveyor of fairy dust actually likes Dozier and has rooted for the guy. All you say, the surprising rise to a top MLB player, is true and commendable. When he came out of the gate playing well this year I thought now we might have something. A Dozier who plays well all year but then we were disappointed again. If you weren't disappointed by his first half performance you are delusional. As the events of the last couple days show he may lead us to postseason this year too. I just don't understand how someone can play so well and also appear so lost at times. If he can do it for months why not more consistently? That is the disappointment.
Polanco if he establishes himself won't have this problem. For crying out loud obviously he is not a better player than Dozier right now and obviously has not contributed more this month. Thanks for the help on that. What I do see with him is a great addition to the lineup who has the potential to be a better all around hitter than Dozier and a tougher out. That is where Dozier has trouble. There are holes in his swing that keep him from contributing more with RISP.

 

That is my thought as well. How can a guy do this every single year? Is he simply not prepared in April and it takes him three months to heat up FINALLY? Escobar is not a better player then Dozier during his hot spells but he is certainly a better player during Dozier's down periods, which end up being half the season.  

 

Sorry I'd rather have Escobar and his consistency.  What good is it to have players who play half a season of baseball and only show up after the team is 8-10 games out of it.  This is what used to drive me crazy about Gibson as well.  

 

Trade Dozier.  Get what you can for him unless he is willing to sign a team friendly deal which he won't.

Edited July 17, 2018 by laloesch

[Tomj14]

 

I disagree with the sentiment that we should just trade everyone if we don't believe Sano / Buxton will lead us to the promise land next year. Why do that today? Whats to be gained? 

My point on that is if Buxton and Sano are not really good next year, the Twins really have nothing next year. Rosario, Kepler and Polanco are the core. No 1B, 2B, or 3B and no real close prospects. Maybe Gordon and Rooker but the odds say no.

Berrios, then you have 2 pitchers in the last year of their contract in Gibson and Jake.

Then a bunch of young guys in Romero, Gonzo, Meija, etc...

The next group of prospects are likely to start coming up in 2019 and hopefully are decent in 20, but really 21 should be more realistic.

 

And I am sorry but if that is the case were the Twins are building for 2021 and beyond good luck filling target field.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I really don't understand where some of you are getting Escobar's "consistency".

 

OPS by year:

 

2015: .754

2016: .618

2017: .758

2018: .834

 

First/Second half OPS splits:

 

2015: .688/.816

2016: .658/.573

2017: .759/.757

2018: ??

 

In only one year was Escobar pretty consistently okay... unless you also want to give him credit for "consistency" the year he was consistently awful. But even in that consistently "okay" season, he was so far below Dozier's season line that the two are not comparable in value.

 

I like Escobar but let's not build fake narratives to support keeping him.

[yarnivek1972]

My point on that is if Buxton and Sano are not really good next year, the Twins really have nothing next year. Rosario, Kepler and Polanco are the core. No 1B, 2B, or 3B and no real close prospects. Maybe Gordon and Rooker but the odds say no.

Berrios, then you have 2 pitchers in the last year of their contract in Gibson and Jake.

Then a bunch of young guys in Romero, Gonzo, Meija, etc...

The next group of prospects are likely to start coming up in 2019 and hopefully are decent in 20, but really 21 should be more realistic.

 

And I am sorry but if that is the case were the Twins are building for 2021 and beyond good luck filling target field.

Why be pessimistic?

 

If that’s how it works out the Twins can flip anyone they sign or extend when the best opportunity arises. What is the rush to get any deal possible? The trade deadline creates an artificial sense of urgency that typically results in a depressed market for sellers because there are invariably more sellers than serious buyers. The only times a seller would have an edge is if they hold an elite asset that several teams want, a situation that doesn’t apply to the Twins.

[Major League Ready]

 

My point on that is if Buxton and Sano are not really good next year, the Twins really have nothing next year. Rosario, Kepler and Polanco are the core. No 1B, 2B, or 3B and no real close prospects. Maybe Gordon and Rooker but the odds say no.

Berrios, then you have 2 pitchers in the last year of their contract in Gibson and Jake.

Then a bunch of young guys in Romero, Gonzo, Meija, etc...

The next group of prospects are likely to start coming up in 2019 and hopefully are decent in 20, but really 21 should be more realistic.

 

And I am sorry but if that is the case were the Twins are building for 2021 and beyond good luck filling target field.

 

You make several good points. My position trading away prospects is based on many of the things you point out. I just think we should ride it out until at least this point next year before we do anything drastic. 

[jorgenswest]

I wonder if it is consistency or variation due to sample. SLG and OBP stabilize near a full season and batting average around 900 plate appearances. Any conclusion drawn from slash stat splits or partial seasons is on shaky ground.

[FunnyPenguin]

I am all about extending Dozier at this point, he is underrated in what he's done in recent years.  he's the kind of guy you might not really miss till he's gone, but he hits lots of dingers, plays decent defense, good runner, and typically has a decent BA.

[Kelly Vance]

 

I’ll keep saying this because no one seems to agree, you just CAN’T do that in this era of 13 man pitching staffs. It simply isn’t workable to have a guy who you know won’t be available (but still be on your active roster) for upwards of 1/3 of the games. Especially when that player’s production is FAR lower than average for his position.

Even Joe Mauer at his best over the last 5 years (2017) was a below average first baseman offensively. He posted a 116 wRC+ last year which was 19th of 28 qualified first basemen. And that is the BEST he has been in 5 years.

Keeping him would be foolish IMO. I would seriously rather roll with Cave at DH until Rooker is ready.

That's why there are horse races. 

 

I think that no matter what some fans think, Joe will play next year if he wants to. He will inch closer to 3000 hits, and a HOF five years from when he hangs them up. People still come to see Joe play.

Even when he is sitting I'd much rather have him as a pinch hitter on his off days than anybody else we got. And speaking for myself, I just like watching Joe play. 

[USAFChief]

 

That's why there are horse races. 

 

I think that no matter what some fans think, Joe will play next year if he wants to. He will inch closer to 3000 hits, and a HOF five years from when he hangs them up. People still come to see Joe play.

Even when he is sitting I'd much rather have him as a pinch hitter on his off days than anybody else we got. And speaking for myself, I just like watching Joe play. 

If "Joe wants to play" when he's 60, should the Twins still offer him a contract?

 

If the FO thinks he'll help them win, sign him.

 

If it's anything else, don't sign him. There's no room for sentiment or nostalgia on a 25 man MLB roster. If you want to win, at least.

[Kelly Vance]

 

If "Joe wants to play" when he's 60, should the Twins still offer him a contract?

 

If the FO thinks he'll help them win, sign him.

 

If it's anything else, don't sign him. There's no room for sentiment or nostalgia on a 25 man MLB roster. If you want to win, at least.

When he is 60?  Maybe he will have 3000 hits by then.

[jorgenswest]

Even Joe Mauer at his best over the last 5 years (2017) was a below average first baseman offensively. He posted a 116 wRC+ last year which was 19th of 28 qualified first basemen. And that is the BEST he has been in 5 years.

I don’t agree with your use of statistics.

 

I am pretty sure that there couldn’t be 28 qualified first basemen though there could be 28 guys who played at least 1 game at first base and also had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. That list has to include players whose primary position was not 1B.

 

The wRC+ overall for first basemen in 2017 was 113. It would be fair to note that Mauer hit better than average first base play. In addition wRC+ does not include his contribution in the field which by the eyes of many was better than league average.

 

There is enough to support your argument for not re-signing Mauer without using statistics in a misleading way (though that may not have been your intent). If fangraphs was your source, you do not get a list of qualified firstbasemen by clicking 1B.

[Jham]

I don’t agree with your use of statistics.

 

I am pretty sure that there couldn’t be 28 qualified first basemen though there could be 28 guys who played at least 1 game at first base and also had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. That list has to include players whose primary position was not 1B.

 

The wRC+ overall for first basemen in 2017 was 113. It would be fair to note that Mauer hit better than average first base play. In addition wRC+ does not include his contribution in the field which by the eyes of many was better than league average.

 

There is enough to support your argument for not re-signing Mauer without using statistics in a misleading way (though that may not have been your intent). If fangraphs was your source, you do not get a list of qualified firstbasemen by clicking 1B.

Where's he at this year?

[jorgenswest]

Where's he at this year?

I am able to look it up if you like though I don’t think the sample is large enough to be considered meaningful. It really would be mathematically best to combine the 2017 with 2018 for wRC+, OPS+ or other slash stat driven data.

Edited July 17, 2018 by jorgenswest