Article: Dozier’s Days Numbered, Then What?

[USAFChief]

 

I'm not weighing in on this one way or the other, but to talk about value today and going forward, you shouldn't use WAR from 4 years ago, especially because Dozier is the age where he's likely already passed his peak. 

I'd consider the WAR (if I valued "WAR") from the previous 4.5 years for both players, much much more than I'd consider a small WAR advantage from the first half of the current season. And BTW, there isn't much WAR difference at this point of 2018.

 

Escobar is a nice player. I like him. I hope the Twins can keep him. But if they can only keep one of him or Dozier, I keep Dozier.

 

BTW...it seems like you're weighing in on this. 

 

[alarp33]

 

I'd consider the WAR (if I valued "WAR") from the previous 4.5 years for both players, much much more than I'd consider a small WAR advantage from the first half of the current season. And BTW, there isn't much WAR difference at this point of 2018.

 

Escobar is a nice player. I like him. I hope the Twins can keep him. But if they can only keep one of him or Dozier, I keep Dozier.

 

BTW...it seems like you're weighing in on this. 

 

I'm not, cuz I don't really have a strong opinion either way... I agree Dozier has been better the last 4.5 years, I don't think there's really any need to even debate that. 

 

I think the fact Escobar can play any IF position and is younger works in his favor going forward. 

 

Who knows how to predict Dozier going forward? He helped kill the 2018 season with his 1st 3 months, but if he stayed hot now I wouldn't be shocked. 

 

If I'm only signing one for next year, it's probably Escobar and I'm trading Dozier in 2 weeks. But that has a lot to do with wanting Gordon at 2B, and thinking Sano isn't going to play 3B next year. 

[USAFChief]

 

I'm not, cuz I don't really have a strong opinion either way... I agree Dozier has been better the last 4.5 years, I don't think there's really any need to even debate that. 

 

I think the fact Escobar can play any IF position and is younger works in his favor going forward. 

 

Who knows how to predict Dozier going forward? He helped kill the 2018 season with his 1st 3 months, but if he stayed hot now I wouldn't be shocked. 

 

If I'm only signing one for next year, it's probably Escobar and I'm trading Dozier in 2 weeks. But that has a lot to do with wanting Gordon at 2B, and thinking Sano isn't going to play 3B next year. 

I agree the Sano factor is huge, and if he isn't the 3Bman, there's no other good option. I don't know how Falvey and Levine view Sano, so that could certainly influence the decision. Dozier can't play 3rd, no how, no way, with that noodle arm. 

 

As for Gordon, I wouldn't trust him to be a productive MLB player in 2019, so that weighs in my preference for Dozier. If you trust Gordon, HE could play 3rd, I guess. Me, I'd rather bet on Sano than Gordon.

 

As for Dozier "killing" 2018, I agree he was part of the problem, but since you like WAR...there's not much WAR difference between him and Escobar so far in 2018. 

[alarp33]

 

I agree the Sano factor is huge, and if he isn't the 3Bman, there's no other good option. I don't know how Falvey and Levine view Sano, so that could certainly influence the decision. Dozier can't play 3rd, no how, no way, with that noodle arm. 

 

As for Gordon, I wouldn't trust him to be a productive MLB player in 2019, so that weighs in my preference for Dozier. If you trust Gordon, HE could play 3rd, I guess. Me, I'd rather bet on Sano than Gordon.

 

As for Dozier "killing" 2018, I agree he was part of the problem, but since you like WAR...there's not much WAR difference between him and Escobar so far in 2018. 

 

I would not expect Gordon to be a 3-4 WAR player next season by any means, but I think he can be productive enough, the resources can be used elsewhere, and I don't have confidence Dozier is going to age well. 

 

The "killing 2018" comment is in reference to the fact their best hitter, who was entering a contract year, and needed to be heavily relied on, put up a .689 ops and 88 wRC+ in the 1st 3 months. The offense tanked, and Dozier was a big reason for that. 

 

 

[Steve Lein]

 

Dozier is not going to get less than Addison Reed money.

 

Come on.

 

 

I don't know man, I might put money down that "Addison Reed money" is the BEST he's possibly going to get on any FA deal.

 

Just peruse this list: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018-mlb-free-agent-tracker

 

Money is not being spent like it used to be, especially on players like Dozier.

 

 

[terrydactyls]

I thought the premise of this thread was: when Dozier is traded, what should be done to fill the void? It's devolved into a squabble of who is better: Escobar or Dozier? And that has been already battled over many times. How about returning to the original topic? thanks.

[birddog]

A second half Dozier and a full-season Escobar are great players to have if your team has a shot at a division title. We can get both back in the off-season if we can afford them and there is no better option.

 

We were really hoping that Twins would be buyers at trade deadline this year but here we are again trying to get more prospects so that maybe--just maybe--2019 will be our year. If we are indeed sellers once again this year, use these prospects to trade for established players in the off-season. It seems our prospects' values only diminish the closer they get to the majors.

 

 

[Steve Lein]

 

As for Dozier "killing" 2018, I agree he was part of the problem, but since you like WAR...there's not much WAR difference between him and Escobar so far in 2018. 

 

Depending on your source I'd probably say that a 0.4 to 0.7 difference in WAR at this point of the year is more significant than your giving it.

 

I don't doubt that Dozier could be better at end of season, but this is more telling for me:

 

Dozier: -1.30 WPA

Escobar: +1.05 WPA

[Vanimal46]

I thought the premise of this thread was: when Dozier is traded, what should be done to fill the void? It's devolved into a squabble of who is better: Escobar or Dozier? And that has been already battled over many times. How about returning to the original topic? thanks.

In spirit of bringing the original topic back...

 

They're not calling up Gordon. He's not ready, nor should they start his service time/option clock now.

 

Get ready for the Taylor Motter show! Or some other middle IF waiver wire pickup.

[Thrylos]

 

Dozier is not going to get less than Addison Reed money.

 

Come on.

 

Cannot compare the only hot commodity in the market (relief pitchers) to second basemen.

 

I think Dozier will make Howie Kendrick, Mike Moustakas, Eduardo Nunez money and depending on the rest of the season, even possibly Chase Utley, Jose Reyes, and Trevor Plouffe money.

 

Even at his peak value he could not bring back anything more than DeLeon, could he?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't know man, I might put money down that "Addison Reed money" is the BEST he's possibly going to get on any FA deal.

 

Just peruse this list: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018-mlb-free-agent-tracker

 

Money is not being spent like it used to be, especially on players like Dozier.

His floor is Addison Reed money if the season ended today.

 

Dozier was worth 11 wins in 2016-17.

 

Besides, Addison Reed money is considerably more money than Thrylos was talking ($8m per versus $5m per).

 

Dozier's probably going to get a lot less than he wants but teams would have to be crazy to pass on a 3 year, $30m deal if he ends the season with another 4-ish wins (which is entirely possible given his recent stretch of play).

[jorgenswest]

Great topic...

 

Is It possible that Adrianza can provide near league average shortstop play in 2019? I think I asked the same question about Escobar when the discussion was about adding Drew in free agency.

 

Adrianza in his prime may have a window where he is a starting shortstop.

[Kelly Vance]

 

Polanco is not a starting SS on a winning team but is their best 2nd base option. I would slide him over and figure out a solution for SS

He was last year

And his getting hot spurred the Twins on.

His coming back this year coincides with a sweep and a series win

[Mike Sixel]

I'd guess Adrianza or Polanco plays 2B when/if Dozier is traded.

 

Gordon will be up in September, and rarely play, if history is any indicator...

[Kelly Vance]

 

I am casting my worthless vote for Gordon at second and Sano back at 3B.  And I do not see this as stepping back.  Despite what Dozier might do, for the current season he has contributed nothing of value.  Despite what he might do, the player who takes his place needs only do more than what Dozier has contributed to make a positive for the team.  

 

Ehire is utility.  Nice to have, but lets not get confused about his role. Polanco is SS until Royce Lewis takes over.  Then we can have more complex conversations.

 

"Despite what Dozier might do, for the current season he has contributed nothing of value."

 

 

That seems a little harsh don't you think?  "Nothing of value?"   Nothing?

 

 

[jorgenswest]

I'd guess Adrianza or Polanco plays 2B when/if Dozier is traded.

 

Gordon will be up in September, and rarely play, if history is any indicator...

Should Gordon play if Adrianza and Polanco are playing well? Is it possible that the pairing that gives the Twins the best overall play next year is Adrianza at SS and Polanco at 2B?

 

Adrianza didn’t come to the Twins with the Baseball America or Fangraphs prospect stamp of approval but he might have a window in his prime where he is a contributing starter on a good team.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Should Gordon play if Adrianza and Polanco are playing well? Is it possible that the pairing that gives the Twins the best overall play next year is Adrianza at SS and Polanco at 2B?

Adrianza didn’t come to the Twins with the Baseball America or Fangraphs prospect stamp of approval but he might have a window in his prime where he is a contributing starter on a good team.

 

Since you asked what I'd do....I'd rotate Gordon with those two, and have him playing at least 2/3 of the time. Despite what some say, ML experience and information gathering are important, and I'd want to gather info. 

 

Then, unless he's awesome, I demote him to AAA to start next year.

 

If he is awesome, he's my starter. Lots of teams are learning that they should trust great performances, and let players prove them right or wrong.....I'd take that chance if he's great up here in September. Most likely, he's ok, and he starts next year in AAA.

[Kelly Vance]

 

Insanity. I love Escobar. But Dozier is the better player. Come on. I'm not even the biggest BD fan. Looking at results, I'm not sure Dozier is part of any solution, his leadership mostly failed, and possibly blocked future leaders from stepping up.

That said, is Gordon really or future 2B or AS? He's very young, and developed very questionable minor league power. His prospect status has taken a hit. Moving to 2B because he couldn't unseat Adrianza would only be a greater hit. Then when he struggles... There is still a chance he develops into a really good player. I'm trying to think of a player who's fallen down prospect lists then rocketed back up...

Anyway, Gordon's future as near as it is, is no sure thing. He still had significant trade value, but less than last year. I'm not liking a lot of our choices at this point.

I'm a Dozier fan and two years ago I opposed a trade. But it is NOT insanity to note how well Eduardo has played. He was leading the league in extra base hits, and with Eddie was carrying the team, all while playing 3 different positions.

 

I would like to keep them both and it could happen. The 5 contending teams don't really need help at SS and only Boston needs a 2b, but not desperately, except for Seattle, which is where I'd like to see Doze land. Cano is due back but not eligible for the post season. 

[Steve Lein]

 

His floor is Addison Reed money if the season ended today.

 

Dozier was worth 11 wins in 2016-17.

 

I think it's pretty obvious contracts for players Dozier's age now, who can only play one position (that I don't consider one of the "up the middle" important ones, or that many teams even have a need for on the FA market), and are known mostly for power output, aren't getting what had been expected anymore in Free Agency.

 

I'm fully aware how good Dozier has been the last two seasons and I'd love to see him get paid just as much as you, I think. But I really don't think he's going to unless it's from the Twins.

 

 

[Jham]

I'm a Dozier fan and two years ago I opposed a trade. But it is NOT insanity to note how well Eduardo has played. He was leading the league in extra base hits, and with Eddie was carrying the team, all while playing 3 different positions.

 

I would like to keep them both and it could happen. The 5 contending teams don't really need help at SS and only Boston needs a 2b, but not desperately, except for Seattle, which is where I'd like to see Doze land. Cano is due back but not eligible for the post season.

I'm not saying that I'd rather have Dozier. But purely who is better at baseball? I guess insanity is too strong. "Probably" is more accurate. Dozier could be falling off the JJ Hardy Trevor Plotted cliff.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

The way I see it, the order is this -

  

Option 1/Best option - We get Dozier and Escobar to sign contracts in the 3 years (no more than 3) /7-12m a year range with Dozier closer to 10 or 11 and Escobar closer to 7.  Adrianza stays as the UTL,  3-5m a year. Gordon comes up when he's ready since he's only 22 and can stay in AAA for awhile and develop. Polanco plays SS, Dozier 2B, Escobar 3B and Esco is effectively in a grouping with Sano/Mauer/FA bat or Morrison for the 1B/3B/DH spots.  Best result and I think the result the FO is hoping for.

 

So you are suggesting for the Twins to keep doing the same things that have not produced good results with the hope that something might change?

 

If their 2019 lineup looks like their 2018 lineup and their 2019 clubhouse like the 2018 clubhouse, why expect different results?

 

Unless the Twins like the way this team has been this season, that would be the worst case scenario.

Edited July 13, 2018 by Thrylos

[jkcarew]

 

I would like to keep them both (Dozier and Escobar) and it could happen.

I think it's extremely unlikely...but for the sake of argument...

 

If they have plans to do that, they need to trade Gordon while they can get a return, right?

To me, signing both would be a statement on what the organization thinks of Gordon.  (Unless you're signing them for one, maybe two years...which I guess is always possible, but again unlikely.)

[Number3]

Through all of this it seems that the Twins have a bunch of interchangeable parts at 3rd, 2nd and SS. What about first base? Mauer has been there because there is no where else to put him. Sano should be worked out at first base until he collapses and then worked out some more. if he can't become a regular MLB first baseman then send him back to the Dominican Republic where he can retire in his early 20s.

 Twins should focus on a bonafide first baseman. Biggest problem at the other 3 in field positions is deciding who to play.

BTW, is Polanco only a starting shortstop on a losing team but when that team starts winning he is not a starting short stop? Please explain. If Lewis actually shows up on the Twins roster then let him compete for the position but don't say Polanco can't play it. Jim Palmer said in game 4 that Polanco's final out play from deep short was one of the best plays he had seen all year. Palmer does not compliment lightly.

[yarnivek1972]

I'm not, cuz I don't really have a strong opinion either way... I agree Dozier has been better the last 4.5 years, I don't think there's really any need to even debate that.

 

I think the fact Escobar can play any IF position and is younger works in his favor going forward.

 

Who knows how to predict Dozier going forward? He helped kill the 2018 season with his 1st 3 months, but if he stayed hot now I wouldn't be shocked.

 

If I'm only signing one for next year, it's probably Escobar and I'm trading Dozier in 2 weeks. But that has a lot to do with wanting Gordon at 2B, and thinking Sano isn't going to play 3B next year.

It would help Escobar’s case if he was actually good defensively anywhere. Of course, Dozier is not a gold glove second baseman anymore either.

 

The answer is Sano sticking at third base for the next 4-5 years, but the chances of that are 0% IMO. Then the Twins could figure out who between Polanco and Gordon they want at SS until Lewis is ready in 4-5 years. That would “solve” the problem. Let them both walk and roll with Adrianza as your reserve. That would be fine IF Sano stayed healthy, played serviceably at third AND Gordon was ready by 2019 AND Polanco stays about at his career norm. But, how likely is that.

 

If “ands” and “buts” were candy and nuts...

[Twins33]

Great topic...

Is It possible that Adrianza can provide near league average shortstop play in 2019? I think I asked the same question about Escobar when the discussion was about adding Drew in free agency.

Adrianza in his prime may have a window where he is a starting shortstop.

He did last year on offense (slash line). He's also doing it again so far this year.

[yarnivek1972]

No, there's a significant change in that Polanco will be available for the entire season rather then half. Also, the other change is the elimination of Morrison as the backup IB/DH option to be replaced by a free agent. To me, that's a better strategy than bringing up Gordon and hope he does better. With that clarification, do you have a better option?

Here’s the FA for 1b/dh.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/1st-base/

 

 

Let us know which one you want to go after.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Insanity. I love Escobar. But Dozier is the better player. Come on. I'm not even the biggest BD fan. Looking at results, I'm not sure Dozier is part of any solution, his leadership mostly failed, and possibly blocked future leaders from stepping up.

That said, is Gordon really or future 2B or AS? He's very young, and developed very questionable minor league power. His prospect status has taken a hit. Moving to 2B because he couldn't unseat Adrianza would only be a greater hit. Then when he struggles... There is still a chance he develops into a really good player. I'm trying to think of a player who's fallen down prospect lists then rocketed back up...

Anyway, Gordon's future as near as it is, is no sure thing. He still had significant trade value, but less than last year. I'm not liking a lot of our choices at this point.

When his bat is on, you're right, Dozier is the better player. He's had way too many good half seasons with putrid results during the other half. Escobar has been more consistent and can play decent defense everywhere. If Dozier had played 2018 like he did 2017, we'd have a lot more wins and we'd be clamoring to QO him. Those Ruthian half seasons of baseball will come to an end at some point. I'm much more comfortable with the consistent guy on a 3 year deal than the one who goes from hot to cold and has no in between.

[yarnivek1972]

Duda and Adams are both lefty hitters. Both have rather pronounced lefty righty splits, especially Duda.

 

It seems to me the Twins would want to be pursuing a guy that can do damage against LHP.

[Mike Sixel]

Duda and Adams are both lefty hitters. Both have rather pronounced lefty righty splits, especially Duda.

 

It seems to me the Twins would want to be pursuing a guy that can do damage against LHP.

Like? There aren't many good choices, if we exclude the outfield, to upgrade the team in free agency. Also, assuming we exclude the elite talents

[yarnivek1972]

Like? There aren't many good choices, if we exclude the outfield, to upgrade the team in free agency. Also, assuming we exclude the elite talents

That was my point. Such a player does not exist.

 

That’s another reason why I think Sano plays either 1B or DH the overwhelming majority of the time going forward meaning the Twins pretty much have to keep Escobar to play 3B.