Article: Potential Suitors for Brian Dozier

[ewen21]

 

I don't know what it had to do with who the suitors for him might be. 

Still not sure what the trouble is.

 

But OK....life goes on

[Andrew Thares]

I don't know what it had to do with who the suitors for him might be.

 

Sorry I put them in bold font, but if you missed them it was the Red Sox, Dodgers, Brewers and Giants.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sorry I put them in bold font, but if you missed them it was the Red Sox, Dodgers, Brewers and Giants.

 

I got what you were saying,, not what ewen21 was at all in terms of the topic of the thread.

[Andrew Thares]

I got what you were saying,, not what ewen21 was at all in terms of the topic of the thread.

Ah my mistake, I was really confused on how that could have gotten overlooked.

[Kato87]

 Unless a team is willing to break the bank for Scooter Gennett, I don't see the Reds trading him because value he does delivered the last 2 seasons.  Much like the situation the Twins had with Dozier 2 offseasons ago

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The fact is Dozier couldn't fetch much in last year's market and he is going to fetch probably less this year.

We saw the offer last year. What can we honestly expect when the guy has had a down year?

agreed!

 

It could also be the Twins have a lower threshold for acceptable return too.

[Kato87]

Personally, I would trade Dozier to the Dodgers for Will Smith (Dodger #9 MLB prospect).  The Twins have very little depth at catcher in minors (see Bobby Wilson), and Castro has 1 yr. left on his contract.  Will Smith has been touted as an excellent defensive catcher and is hitting well in AA.  Garver does not look good behind the plate.  The Twins need more options...

[DocBauer]

Generally speaking, the Dodgers and Red Sox have not been shy about being aggressive to win in the past. Which makes reported offers for Dozierin a deal to the Dodgers last year a bit strange. They seem the most likely suitors as they wouldn't be afraid of his remaining contact, (pretty small really), or his potential contract if they decided to bring him back, (Especially with a seemingly depressed market). And again, they have shown tendencies in the past to make big moves to put them over the top.

 

If I'm either of those teams I'm actually pretty excited to make the deal. (Especially since I have nothing at 2B currently). Dozier is a good guy and good teammate. Make jokes if you want, but he's solid defensively. He has a pretty nice record of production, albeit with a proven reputation for strong second halves. (Which is the point of acquiring him now as well). His contract for the remainder of this season is no burden. And I can let him go after the season if I just don't feel like its working out.

 

The bad news for the Twins is, he's only a half season rental and hasn't turned up the temperature of his production to normal standards yet this season. I think it's 50-50 he goes in a trade. I think it honestly comes down to a decent overpay for one of these two clubs, or the Twins keep him and make a decision in the off season how to proceed.

[rghrbek]

 

Probably not much, everybody knows he's going to hit 20+ solo HRs a year.

and how did he do with RISP tonight?

[Danchat]

 

and how did he do with RISP tonight?

0 for 2. He's a good hitter with nobody on the bases, but he hits like 2017 Logan Morrison when there's guys in scoring position.

 

Recalling conversations last year about trading him at the deadline... from what we knew, teams weren't offering very much. The demand for 2B does seem to be higher this year, but I still don't expect to get much for him.

[Cap'n Piranha]

I want Dozier traded because I’m petrified the Twins would QO him, and he’d accept.

 

Even if he doesn’t, I’m guessing no team will be willing to sign him and lose their pick, so this is the one chance to get something (anything) for him.

[Aerodeliria]

I'm just afraid the Twins will be too eager and end up getting shanked. Dozier has played much more poorly than would be hoped at this point. The offer would have to be a big win IMHO. It is not inconceivable that Dozier could start his surge any day, so that would need to be the primary selling point. Just walk away from any conversation that starts out with batting average, strikeouts, etc., etc.

[laloesch]

No-one should be surprised by this. Brian's average always spikes in August - September but what's the point if the team is completely out of it by then. He has ALWAYS been slow to the party with the exception of 2017 and part of 2016. Through out his major league career beginning in 2012 he has displayed this pattern of low .200's hitting late into the summer before going on a tear and pulling his ba and op percentage up to a halfway respectable average. And quite frankly i'm tired of it. I'm tired of all his chirping and then backing it up with awful stats. Time to move on. If they trade him for something halfway decent fine by me. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm just afraid the Twins will be too eager and end up getting shanked. Dozier has played much more poorly than would be hoped at this point. The offer would have to be a big win IMHO. It is not inconceivable that Dozier could start his surge any day, so that would need to be the primary selling point. Just walk away from any conversation that starts out with batting average, strikeouts, etc., etc.

 

how so? I mean, I'd rather get fifty cents than nothing.....

[jkcarew]

I love Dozier as a player, but even I don't want to watch him play for 2 more months just because his replacement will probably make the team weaker.  When you pull the plug on a season, you pull the plug.  So, if he's not going to be here in 2019, at the very least you can assess 'how far away' Gordon is, etc...or further assess whether you want Adrianza in 2019...or what Escobar looks like at 2nd...anything that has any relevance at all for 2019 plans.  I think the return will be limited under current circumstances, but I see that as almost irrelevant.  You're not going to give him a QO.

 

Under these circumstances, I'm almost more interested in seeing where he goes, than what we get.  The work and improvement he made to transform himself into what he's become warrants a real opportunity in the playoffs...and hopefully a decent payday in the off season.

[jkcarew]

For those that love to talk about Dozier's RISP struggles.  This is a number that varies widely from year to year for most all batters.  Dozier's BA RiSP is down this year.  For his career his BA RiSP is almost identical to his overall career BA (as it is for most players).

 

His 2018 BA RiSP will have absolutely nothing to do with his perceived value among potential trade partners.

[Andrew Thares]

It appears as though the Brewers are interested in both Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar...

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-trade-deadline/c-281084458?tid=282421090

[ewen21]

 

No-one should be surprised by this. Brian's average always spikes in August - September but what's the point if the team is completely out of it by then. He has ALWAYS been slow to the party with the exception of 2017 and part of 2016. Through out his major league career beginning in 2012 he has displayed this pattern of low .200's hitting late into the summer before going on a tear and pulling his ba and op percentage up to a halfway respectable average. And quite frankly i'm tired of it. I'm tired of all his chirping and then backing it up with awful stats. Time to move on. If they trade him for something halfway decent fine by me. 

He has been on awful teams he seems to always heat up as soon as the season is lost

 

I am tired of his act as well.  He ticked me off with his comments about CIsco bunting on us early in the season and did it again after Escobar was hit by Porcello.  What the heck is this all about?  Is this supposed to be "breaking chops" which allegedly equates to "keeping the clubhouse loose" i.e "leadership"?  Not funny (especially in front of the camera) when the incident was still fresh.

[ewen21]

 

For those that love to talk about Dozier's RISP struggles.  This is a number that varies widely from year to year for most all batters.  Dozier's BA RiSP is down this year.  For his career his BA RiSP is almost identical to his overall career BA (as it is for most players).

 

His 2018 BA RiSP will have absolutely nothing to do with his perceived value among potential trade partners.

Dozier has been consistently horrible in close and late situations:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=clutc%7CLate%20%26%20Close%7Cdoziebr01%7Cbat%7CAB%7C

On the other hand, when the run margin in greater than 4 runs he is much MUCH better:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=clutc%7CMargin%20%3E%204%20R%7Cdoziebr01%7Cbat%7CAB%7C

 

There is enough statistical evidence to destroy any dismissiveness about how he performs in these situations.  And if anyone thinks playoff teams are unaware of these statistics or are going to ignore them in trade negotiations they need to think again.

 

This is more about the Twins than it is Dozier.  He could have done better this year to command more value and demand and he choked in that area.  Not the Twins fault.

 

[jkcarew]

 

Dozier has been consistently horrible in close and late situations:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=clutc%7CLate%20%26%20Close%7Cdoziebr01%7Cbat%7CAB%7C

On the other hand, when the run margin in greater than 4 runs he is much MUCH better:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=clutc%7CMargin%20%3E%204%20R%7Cdoziebr01%7Cbat%7CAB%7C

 

There is enough statistical evidence to destroy any dismissiveness about how he performs in these situations.  And if anyone thinks playoff teams are unaware of these statistics or are going to ignore them in trade negotiations they need to think again.

 

This is more about the Twins than it is Dozier.  He could have done better this year to command more value and demand and he choked in that area.  Not the Twins fault.

Again, how he fared in 2018 in these scenarios will have no bearing on his trade value.

[Monkeypaws]

Just saw that Pedroia will not be back anytime soon.

 

Dozier + the Green Monster could be fun.

[ewen21]

 

Again, how he fared in 2018 in these scenarios will have no bearing on his trade value.

This is the kind of thing, quite frankly, that does this forum no good.  You didn't even look at the links I have provided.  The links I posted highlighted his CAREER NUMBERS so what you said above isn't even what I was talking about.  I don't mind when people disagree with me, but I do have trouble with what you just did.  I will try again and this time please give me some feedback on what these numbers say to you:

CAREER NUMBERS, close and late:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=clutc%7CLate%20%26%20Close%7Cdoziebr01%7Cbat%7CAB%7C

CAREER NUMBERS, Margin > 4 R

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=clutc%7CMargin%20%3E%204%20R%7Cdoziebr01%7Cbat%7CAB%7C

[jkcarew]

 

This is the kind of thing, quite frankly, that does this forum no good.  You didn't even look at the links I have provided.  The links I posted highlighted his CAREER NUMBERS so what you said above isn't even what I was talking about.  I don't mind when people disagree with me, but I do have trouble with what you just did.  I will try again and this time please give me some feedback on what these numbers say to you:

CAREER NUMBERS, close and late:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=clutc%7CLate%20%26%20Close%7Cdoziebr01%7Cbat%7CAB%7C

CAREER NUMBERS, Margin > 4 R

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=clutc%7CMargin%20%3E%204%20R%7Cdoziebr01%7Cbat%7CAB%7C

Let me try to elaborate.  I looked at you link.  You can see the numbers vary wildly from year to year.  I do not at all believe that Dozier has a reputation as a "choker" among decision-makers in the industry, REGARDLESS of the numbers you cite.  "Close and Late" numbers are compiled against the best relievers in the game (to a significant degree) and numbers moderately below overall numbers are not uncommon at all....it's not abnormal.  If you disagree, and think Dozier's value is materially tainted by performance in 'clutch' situations, that's your prerogative.  I very much doubt that is the case.

[alarp33]

 

This is the kind of thing, quite frankly, that does this forum no good.  You didn't even look at the links I have provided.  The links I posted highlighted his CAREER NUMBERS so what you said above isn't even what I was talking about.  I don't mind when people disagree with me, but I do have trouble with what you just did.  I will try again and this time please give me some feedback on what these numbers say to you:

CAREER NUMBERS, close and late:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=clutc%7CLate%20%26%20Close%7Cdoziebr01%7Cbat%7CAB%7C

CAREER NUMBERS, Margin > 4 R

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=clutc%7CMargin%20%3E%204%20R%7Cdoziebr01%7Cbat%7CAB%7C

 

500 at bats over a 7 year span is not a meaningful sample size in any way. It will not have any affect on his trade value. His performance overall this season might

[ewen21]

 

500 at bats over a 7 year span is not a meaningful sample size in any way. It will not have any affect on his trade value. His performance overall this season might

It isn't important that you agree with me or not.  I simply presented the facts and these facts will more than likely be brought into the equation during any kinds of deadline deals.  

[jorgenswest]

This is the kind of thing, quite frankly, that does this forum no good.  You didn't even look at the links I have provided.  The links I posted highlighted his CAREER NUMBERS so what you said above isn't even what I was talking about.  I don't mind when people disagree with me, but I do have trouble with what you just did.  I will try again and this time please give me some feedback on what these numbers say to you:

CAREER NUMBERS, close and late:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=clutc|Late%20%26%20Close|doziebr01|bat|AB|

CAREER NUMBERS, Margin > 4 R

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=clutc|Margin%20>%204%20R|doziebr01|bat|AB|

Is that enough to support a career conclusion about Dozier into the future? A few considerations might be important.

 

The Late and Close split is going to have the lower numbers league wide. It shouldn’t be surprising as batters are often facing closers or very good relievers. You might still argue that Dozier’s drop is greater than the league average drop.

 

The other consideration is sample. Batting average takes over 900 plate appearances to stabilize. The other slash stats a full season. It takes years to get enough sample and by the time that sample is large enough the player must get be very different than when they entered the league.

 

Given both considerations I doubt that this data is a significant factor in any teams thinking as they seek players to improve their team at the trade deadline.

[ewen21]

 

Let me try to elaborate.  I looked at you link.  You can see the numbers vary wildly from year to year.  I do not at all believe that Dozier has a reputation as a "choker" among decision-makers in the industry, REGARDLESS of the numbers you cite.  "Close and Late" numbers are compiled against the best relievers in the game (to a significant degree) and numbers moderately below overall numbers are not uncommon at all....it's not abnormal.  If you disagree, and think Dozier's value is materially tainted by performance in 'clutch' situations, that's your prerogative.  I very much doubt that is the case.

 

I did not use the word "choker".  I simply presented the facts.  My main point is that Dozier's performance in these situations can not be called an anomaly and in trade negotiations they will look for any way to undercut his value.  These statistics are out there and they are not going to be ignored.  You can draw your own conclusions.

 

 

[ewen21]

 

Is that enough to support a career conclusion about Dozier into the future? A few considerations might be important.

The Late and Close split is going to have the lower numbers league wide. It shouldn’t be surprising as batters are often facing closers or very good relievers. You might still argue that Dozier’s drop is greater than the league average drop.

The other consideration is sample. Batting average takes over 900 plate appearances to stabilize. The other slash stats a full season. It takes years to get enough sample and by the time that sample is large enough the player must get be very different than when they entered the league.

Given both considerations I doubt that this data is a significant factor in any teams thinking as they seek players to improve their team at the trade deadline.

 

YOu can have your own opinion on this.  I simply presented the facts.  This is potential leverage against the Twins in any negotiations because to a contender they want to push his value down.  It is the art of the deal. 

 

On the underlined, I know full well that close and late numbers are usually slightly lower, but it isn't in this case.  His numbers are SIGNIFICANLY lower than his output in other situations.  Not just a little bit, a lotta bit. 

 

Am I somehow wrong in these points?

Edited July 11, 2018 by ewen21

[jorgenswest]

YOu can have your own opinion on this.  I simply presented the facts.  This is potential leverage against the Twins in any negotiations because to a contender they want to push his value down.  It is the art of the deal. 

 

On the underlined, I know full well that close and late numbers are usually slightly lower, but it isn't in this case.  His numbers are SIGNIFICANLY lower than his output in other situations.  Not just a little bit, a lotta bit. 

 

Am I somehow wrong in these points?

You correctly represent the past though I disagree with the word slight. The facts likely have little meaning for Dozier’s performance the rest of the season.

[ewen21]

 

You correctly represent the past though I disagree with the word slight. The facts likely have little meaning for Dozier’s performance the rest of the season.

I am not pretending to have a crystal ball.  Nowhere have I predicted what he might do in the second half because that is pie in the sky nothing.  In this situation, I stick to the facts. Teams possibly interested in Dozier will use whatever they can to get him for less.  If these numbers are avaiilable to laypeople like us, don't you think office executives who do this for a living witl use myriad stats (these included) during the negotiation process?

 

Put all that aside, and just look at where he is now.  This was supposed to be the year for him to play for a mulityear contract.  If he gets injured or doesn't have a very strong second half he isn't going to get the deal he was hoping for before this season.  NOt even close.