Article: A Breakout or Breakthrough for Sano

[Ted Schwerzler]

Much of the talk leading up to the 2018 Major League Baseball season regarding the Minnesota Twins has focused around potential breakout season for players like Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, or even Jorge Polanco. Despite making headlines for some negative reasons this offseason, Miguel Sano may actually be the one deserving of the biggest breakthrough talk. While he’s coming off an All-Star appearance, the numbers suggest we may have not seen anything yet.Yes, Miguel Sano nearly won the Rookie of the Year award (finishing third) back in 2015). Yes, he’s hit at least 18 home runs in each of his three big league seasons. Yes, Sano’s 28 long balls a year ago were a career high. Taking a look at virtually any production-based stat for Sano should leave you impressed this early on in the soon-to-be 25 year-old’s career. What suggests that we may not have seen anything close to what’s available is just how seldom the slugger has been in the lineup.

 

Over the past two seasons, Sano has played just 116 and 114 games for Minnesota. Having dealt with injuries at different points through his big league career, the Twins tender of the hot corner has yet to reach anything close to a full 162 game production level. While it may be difficult to expect a man that large to not break down over such a haul that is MLB’s regular season, it’s also not unthinkable. Sano’s weight has been called into question plenty, and while I think there’s reason for concerns, to me it’s more about the reflection of his personal dedication. Still at such a young age, I think there’s plenty of reason to believe that seasons at near-max production still lie ahead.

 

That’s where things get enticing for the Dominican native.

 

Sano’s .859 OPS across 114 games a season ago didn’t quite match the .916 mark in the 80 game sample size that was his rookie year. Despite settling at a .264 average, Sano flirted with something between .280-.300 for a good bulk of the year. Sure strikeouts remain a problem, and he may lead the league over a full season, but his OBP (.352) is reflective of a guy who is able to downplay most of the negatives a trip back to the dugout is associated with. The slash line isn’t really where the numbers jump off the page though.

 

Across the 114 games in 2017, Sano posted career bests in runs scored (75), hits (112), home runs (28) and RBI (77). Extrapolating that production over the course of a full season is pretty eye-opening. Per 162 games, the numbers equate to 107 runs scored, 159 hits, 40 homers, and 109 RBI. Getting that kind of production from the hot corner is something Minnesota hasn’t laid claim to since the days of Harmon Killebrew.

 

In 2016, Brian Dozier eclipsed the 40 home run plateau and became the first Twins player to do so not named Harmon. At the time of his accomplishment, Dozier was a big league veteran and 29 years old. Sano could join the group as early as the 2018 season, and would be doing so while significantly younger, and really before his true prime.

 

There’s a possibility that Miguel could face a suspension to start out 2018 (although it’s looking somewhat unlikely), and there’s reason to believe health may keep him out of more than a handful of contests. There’s also room in the equation for optimism, and while he won’t ever play a complete 162 games schedule, getting over the 150 mark would provide for some truly great numbers.

 

2018 doesn’t need to be a defining season for Sano, the best one of his career, or something of historic proportions. What I think we should be aware of however, is that as great as we’ve seen flashes thus far, they’ve been on a scale roughly equivalent to two-thirds of a season. If Sano can gain himself the ability to compete on a more frequent basis, it’s a good bet that truly great numbers will follow suit.

 

Before there was Byron Buxton, there was Miguel Sano. Paul Molitor getting the most out of them at the highest level would no doubt equate to a pairing this organization hasn’t seen in quite some time.

 

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[Tommygun921]

The thing I wonder about Sano is if he really understands what he could do in a little better shape? What the league thinks of him as a player? The kind of money he could be missing out on by only playing 2/3 of a season every year. It's a shame to see. If the report/s I had seen about the Twins offering him straight up for Chris Archer are true and the Ray's turning it down as they don't like his lack of position flexibility long term it should be some kind of wake-up call to him. Hopefully he can turn his health around and play more games and increase his production starting this year while playing solid 3rd base and prove us wrong.

[Vanimal46]

I'm bullish on Sano... He'll be an All Star again, play 140+ games, and hit the ball extremely hard.

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm bullish on Sano... He'll be an All Star again, play 140+ games, and hit the ball extremely hard.

Yep. Broken legs aren't really suggestive of future injury. He'll be really good this year.

[vavo]

I think the biggest question for Sano is not his weight, but rather his strikeouts. With a 35% K rate he can still be good obviously -- something like 250/340/500, but if he can find a way to cut that down to even 30% (no small task, I know), then that turns into 280/370/530, which is much more like the player we all would like him to be. 

 

He's going to walk about 10% of the time and he's going to mash taters when he makes solid contact. The question is whether he can make contact a little more often.

[brvama]

As referenced by Ted, it's Sano's youth that gets me excited. As his maturity grows I think so will his performance. These next 4-5 years could be fun to watch.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Except his strikeouts might be directly tied to his power. Perhaps Sano crushes the ball because when he hits it, he hits it hard. But in order to hit it hard, he has to swing hard, which makes it more likely he’ll miss. Which would mean cutting down on strikeouts is more likely to result in a 270/370/450 slash. The question is, would you rather live without the homeruns, or with the strikeouts?

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

I would not tinker too much with Sano's approach to the plate... Maybe his pitch selection rather than specifically not swinging as hard. He can cut down on his K rate, even slightly, without cutting out homers if he's a little more selective in which pitches he swings at. Otherwise, don't tinker too much with success.

[Vanimal46]

I would not tinker too much with Sano's approach to the plate... Maybe his pitch selection rather than specifically not swinging as hard. He can cut down on his K rate, even slightly, without cutting out homers if he's a little more selective in which pitches he swings at. Otherwise, don't tinker too much with success.

Agreed. If he lays off more back door benders he'll be good. He was starting to do so in the first half last year. Then he was pressing a little bit once he went into a slump and swung at those pitches again.

[Loosey]

 

Except his strikeouts might be directly tied to his power. Perhaps Sano crushes the ball because when he hits it, he hits it hard. But in order to hit it hard, he has to swing hard, which makes it more likely he’ll miss. Which would mean cutting down on strikeouts is more likely to result in a 270/370/450 slash. The question is, would you rather live without the homeruns, or with the strikeouts?

I agree his hard swing will result in both homers and Ks.  However, if he can be a little more disciplined at the plate, like he was his rookie year, I think a drop in K's will follow.  Basically, don't chase slider or the fastball in the dirt.  

[Taildragger8791]

A guy with as much power as Sano shouldn't need to sell-out to swing for the fences. 420 feet counts the same as a 480 feet almost everywhere. Maybe he can improve his bat control/contact ability/pitch recognition by dialing in an appropriate swing effort for the pitch count & situation. That could be a very beneficial tradeoff if it works. Might help avoid nasty back back problems and muscle strains as he ages, too.

[birddog]

Love watching Sano hit and until he matures and can recognize pitches better the K's will come. Maybe with 2 strikes he can swing for the 420 foot HR and not the 480 footer?!

[Deduno Abides]

Except his strikeouts might be directly tied to his power. Perhaps Sano crushes the ball because when he hits it, he hits it hard. But in order to hit it hard, he has to swing hard, which makes it more likely he’ll miss. Which would mean cutting down on strikeouts is more likely to result in a 270/370/450 slash. The question is, would you rather live without the homeruns, or with the strikeouts?

 

In the playoffs? Would prefer better contact.

[Mr. Brooks]

A guy with as much power as Sano shouldn't need to sell-out to swing for the fences. 420 feet counts the same as a 480 feet almost everywhere. Maybe he can improve his bat control/contact ability/pitch recognition by dialing in an appropriate swing effort for the pitch count & situation. That could be a very beneficial tradeoff if it works. Might help avoid nasty back back problems and muscle strains as he ages, too.

Not that I agree, but selling out allows even balls that aren't perfectly squared up to clear the fence.

Sure, when he gets a hold of one, it should be out even at 85%, but he won't always get all of it every time.

[jkcarew]

Sano's unique power comes from the acceleration (and the mass) of his hip turn...not the way he uses his arms.  In other words, that power ain't going anywhere...it's a combination of being huge and extremely flexible and athletic.

 

So, I agree that the strike-out improvement need not materially affect the HR's.  Just needs to make progress with pitch recognition and a more consistently disciplined approach  (he's shown flashes)...and maybe a willingness to wait for the ball to get deeper with two strikes, which would reduce his number of HR hit with two strikes maybe, but not much I don't think, as he can reach the fences in any part of any park.

 

I'd love to be Sano.