Article: MRI Reveals Torn UCL For Trevor May

[DaveW]

There's a reason scouts have started a new distinction -- #4 pitchers, and #4 pitchers for the Twins.

 

Mejia is slated to be a #4 pitcher -- for the Twins.

LOL I approve of this bit. I'm gonna steal it

[Thrylos]

 

 I never understood the "bro crush" everyone has on May, as he goes out and posts a 5+ ERA every year.   This'll just make the Berrios decision easier.  

 

You are using ERA to make an argument against May (and in 2015 it was 4.00) and for Berrios.  Have you checked Berrios' ERA last season?

[Paul Pleiss]

It seemed to me you lived your life like a candle in the wind... raise your glasses and toast to what MAY have been a great season. Maybe Perk will rebound. Maybe the Twins will find a starter or two on the scrap heap. Maybe 2017 isn't lost before it's even begun. But for Trevor May, it is.

[ken]

You are using ERA to make an argument against May (and in 2015 it was 4.00) and for Berrios. Have you checked Berrios' ERA last season?

Wouldn't that ERA of Berrios be similar to May's first year and about 3 years younger?

[S.]

 

Why panic?  I never understood the "bro crush" everyone has on May, as he goes out and posts a 5+ ERA every year.   This'll just make the Berrios decision easier.   We've got more than a few guys to back him up, too.  May seems like a good dude, and it's a bad break for him personally - but as far as this team's hopes go, I hope nobody really believed he'd be an impact player. 

The "bro crush" is because we have people like Hughes/Santiago/Gibson who are likely to be 3/5 of our starting rotation and its certainly not unreasonable to assume he could've had a more positive impact on this Twins team than any of them. Or any of the number of AAAA players I'm sure we're going to have to watch get starts this season.

[The Wise One]

 

It's never a good idea to screw with a young arms development cycle.

This is one of the effects of doing so.

Injuries of course can happen to a pitcher at anytime, but messing with them like the Twins did with May only increases those odds.

Cris Sale, John Schmoltz, , Samardzija, Hughes, Lance Lynn all say hello

[FormerMinnasotan]

Wouldn't that ERA of Berrios be similar to May's first year and about 3 years younger?

Exactly, plus I believe May was even more wild his first season in the Bigs than Berrios was. Plus I think Berrios' k/9 rate was higher than May's. Honestly considering how much Berrios has worked to improve from last year I believe he could improve as much as May did from yr 1 to yr 2.

[Danchat]

Ugh, I really felt May was going to win that #5 spot and finally prove himself as a starter. I really hope he can come back strong next season... this news really put a damper on my day.

 

Hopefully we'll see Berrios and Mejia replacing him. I can't stand to see guys like Vogelsong or other AAAA filler getting starts. 

[DaveW]

Cris Sale, John Schmoltz, , Samardzija, Hughes, Lance Lynn all say hello

When your 4th example is Hughes, a guy no has had injury issues and exactly ONE good to great SP season, you sort of make my point for me.

 

Sale was also only in the bullpen for a third of a season and was heavily monitored. Smoltz was a starter for 10+ years before moving to become a closer.

 

Weird examples overall TBH

[The Wise One]

 

When your 4th example is Hughes, a guy no has had injury issues and exactly ONE good to great SP season, you sort of make my point for me.

Sale was also only in the bullpen for a third of a season and was heavily monitored. Smoltz was a starter for 10+ years before moving to become a closer.

Weird examples overall TBH

Sale pitched a year and a half in the bullpen.

No weirder  than your non statistical analysis that it hurts pitchers going from starter to bullpen.   Considering that Hughes has had 4 seasons where he has pitched to a 2.4 WAR or better and those 4 years he would be a top 50 pitcher I can only assume that by your definition then there are almost no good pitchers out there. Since there are  almost no good pitchers out there by your definition it really doesn't matter if they are bounced from the rotation to the bullpen, they are all going to be poor to mediocre pitchers anyways. .

[DaveW]

While Hughes has had 4 solid to good years, he has spent 10 years in the majors. He has 12.1 total WAR and a career 4.41 ERA.

His last 6 seasons he has a 4.50 ERA.

 

While that isn't the end of the world, I wouldn't call that "good" either. Hughes is basically a guy who more than likely is a #4/#5 guy, which is a shame because he had a ton of potential.

 

There are plenty of "good" pitchers out there, May could have been one of them.

[Dave The Dastardly]

 

Unfortunate, to say the least. Get well, and best of luck.

I'd also like to ask, as a mod, that posters both

1) ease up on loosely founded and wildly skeptical blame, and

2) ease up on attacking those who do.

Neither are worthy of these forums.

Thanks.

You're right. If truth be told, I visit Twins Daily for wit, not wisdom. If I don't get at least one belly laugh and two chuckles off this site every day I'm outta here. Otherwise being a Twins a fan is just too depressing.

[jimbo92107]

This perturbs me.

[Heezy1323]

Here is a recent review of the current state of UCL repair. It is fairly technical, but thought I would post it for those who may be interested.

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2325967116682211

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Here is a recent review of the current state of UCL repair. It is fairly technical, but thought I would post it for those who may be interested.

 

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2325967116682211

thanks for sharing. I didnt really get it, but appreciate your expertise

[The Wise One]

 

While Hughes has had 4 solid to good years, he has spent 10 years in the majors. He has 12.1 total WAR and a career 4.41 ERA.
His last 6 seasons he has a 4.50 ERA.

While that isn't the end of the world, I wouldn't call that "good" either. Hughes is basically a guy who more than likely is a #4/#5 guy, which is a shame because he had a ton of potential.

There are plenty of "good" pitchers out there, May could have been one of them.

10 years? First two years were minimal exposure to big leagues,  2011 and 17 were injury years. It has been argued by some smart people that 2015 Hughes could have been affected by TOS.   In the six full seasons that he has played, four of them he has put up good WAR numbers. In the last 7 years he had an ERA of 4.24. FIP of 4.04. It all depends on what cherries you want to pick. Unfortunately, I still have yet to see even cherry picked numbers  that say going from starting to relieving blows out arms and interferes with development. In the end Mays had some bad luck with the arm. Fraying of UCL in the past has been an overuse for that person phenomenon. There has been enough for traits to emerge. If it is as some say an overuse injury, then pitching less innings will not cause the injury. If the cause is because of increased rotation of the forearm, again bullpen time does not cause the injury.

Edited March 13, 2017 by The Wise One

[DaveW]

4.40 carer era

95 career era+

Even a 4.24 era over the last 7 years isn't good.

That's #5 type production.

I mean I like Hughes and hope he can have the kind of season he did a couple years ago, but I'm not holding my breath, esp coming off significant arm issues.

Edited March 13, 2017 by DaveW

[snap4birds]

 

Here is a recent review of the current state of UCL repair. It is fairly technical, but thought I would post it for those who may be interested.

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2325967116682211

OK, I haven't read the report.  Did it name any pitchers that have had the repair?  I believe Seth Maness might be the first major leaguer to go through it.  He is with Kansas City now, had spent years with the Cardinals.  The Cardinals also have Mitch Harris, who went through the repair.  He is in camp and throwing well, but it's pretty early.  The stories I've read make it sound promising for a quicker recovery, but there is no long-term data as of yet.  If May has the repair procedure, you may want to keep an eye on Harris and Maness this year.

[MN_ExPat]

I have to wonder if ire we have displayed here today might be exacerbated by Kiriloff's injury as well. 

 

I was pretty bummed when I heard about May's injury.  Another good guy, with a hard work ethic and well liked by many fans and his teammates goes down.  It's hard to take.

 

But I feel (IMHO) that we have to step back and take a deep breath.  I think we all realize that injuries happen (**** happens).  I am inwardly deeply terrified of any potential injuries my son might face playing ball (I cringe to myself every time he rolls an ankle, swings his shoulder and grimaces, runs full tilt into another outfielder, etc.). 

 

But in the end, I have to accept... no matter what he does, an injury could just happen.  All I can do is encourage him and stand beside him.  Casting blame on things we have little or no control over does us all no good.

 

The Lord willing, May will come back and be a productive pitcher next year.  If not, then He has other plans for him and I wish him nothing but the best and count myself thankful for being to able to watch and follow him, just as May's family and friends also do.

 

This is also probably why I shouldn't post in forums though... I seem to have a marked tendency to vomit forth half formed, incoherent detritus as thoughts and ideas, and then look at what I just typed and go... "Wow, I really am an idiot".

 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm holding out hope that he gets the repair instead of the full TJS.  He'd at least be ready for opening day next year instead of just getting back into the swing of things and in 2018... ugh.  this one really hurts.  I know some aren't high on him, but I think he was the best bet to be a above average pitcher on this team for the future... all those questions though won't get answered this year, and it's going to add another set of questions for him as well.

 

Yuck.

[ashbury]

4.40 carer era

95 career era+

Even a 4.24 era over the last 7 years isn't good.

That's #5 type production.

Most years the average starter has an ERA+ under 100. It's the nature of the role.

 

Doesn't make him an ace, but #5 is way undervaluing that kind of production.

[d-mac]

 

It's never a good idea to screw with a young arms development cycle.

This is one of the effects of doing so.

Injuries of course can happen to a pitcher at anytime, but messing with them like the Twins did with May only increases those odds.

 

Plus it sets them behind in development time before the inevitable injuries even occur. May will be on his age 28 season next year. The odds have now gotten slim that he'll ever be able to put together a long career as a start. Had he been in the rotation last year (at age 26) and finished 2015 (age 25) in it and thus already been established- this would likely been only a blip in his career.

[laloesch]

 

Plus it sets them behind in development time before the inevitable injuries even occur. May will be on his age 28 season next year. The odds have now gotten slim that he'll ever be able to put together a long career as a start. Had he been in the rotation last year (at age 26) and finished 2015 (age 25) in it and thus already been established- this would likely been only a blip in his career.

 

Yep.  My fear is his career is basically over now.  Plan B..... Meija? Berrios?

[Deduno Abides]

Here is a recent review of the current state of UCL repair. It is fairly technical, but thought I would post it for those who may be interested.

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2325967116682211

Thanks, Heezy. I agree with the poster who said he likes TD for belly laughs, but I also like when someone shares information that makes me smarter or gives me a new perspective. Your knowledge on pitching and injuries is great to read.

[Mr. Brooks]

I have to wonder if ire we have displayed here today might be exacerbated by Kiriloff's injury as well.

 

I was pretty bummed when I heard about May's injury. Another good guy, with a hard work ethic and well liked by many fans and his teammates goes down. It's hard to take.

 

But I feel (IMHO) that we have to step back and take a deep breath. I think we all realize that injuries happen (**** happens). I am inwardly deeply terrified of any potential injuries my son might face playing ball (I cringe to myself every time he rolls an ankle, swings his shoulder and grimaces, runs full tilt into another outfielder, etc.).

 

But in the end, I have to accept... no matter what he does, an injury could just happen. All I can do is encourage him and stand beside him. Casting blame on things we have little or no control over does us all no good.

 

The Lord willing, May will come back and be a productive pitcher next year. If not, then He has other plans for him and I wish him nothing but the best and count myself thankful for being to able to watch and follow him, just as May's family and friends also do.

 

This is also probably why I shouldn't post in forums though... I seem to have a marked tendency to vomit forth half formed, incoherent detritus as thoughts and ideas, and then look at what I just typed and go... "Wow, I really am an idiot".

This is all true. But, on the other side of the coin is the fact that it's not impossible that there is something in the organization that is contributing to the injuries.

I'm not suggesting that something is, I'm nowhere near a position to know either way. But, I don't think the Twins would be doing their job if they don't consider that possibility.

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

Most years the average starter has an ERA+ under 100. It's the nature of the role.

 

Doesn't make him an ace, but #5 is way undervaluing that kind of production on the Twins starting staff.

FTFY

[Heezy1323]

 

OK, I haven't read the report.  Did it name any pitchers that have had the repair?  I believe Seth Maness might be the first major leaguer to go through it.  He is with Kansas City now, had spent years with the Cardinals.  The Cardinals also have Mitch Harris, who went through the repair.  He is in camp and throwing well, but it's pretty early.  The stories I've read make it sound promising for a quicker recovery, but there is no long-term data as of yet.  If May has the repair procedure, you may want to keep an eye on Harris and Maness this year.

This was more of an academic review paper written by the surgeons out of Rush in Chicago (team doctors for the White Sox). It did not name any players who have undergone the repair procedure. I am not aware of any others aside from those you mention. I agree entirely that watching those pitchers will be interesting (whether May undergoes the procedure or not). Your take on the recovery is the same as mine- promising but lacking long-term data.

[ashbury]

FTFY

I guess that counts as a correction, on the Twins starting staff.

[diehardtwinsfan]

May goes under the knife this week.  Any way of finding out which procedure he's getting?

[GP830]

 

May goes under the knife this week.  Any way of finding out which procedure he's getting?

Tune into his Gamercast and ask him?