Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[Otto von Ballpark]

I hope you're right. Also, I didn't know about the incognito tab. Cool.

Firefox even has extension that will automatically open specified domains (like startribune.com) in a private tab. Desktop Chrome has those too. So you can just set it and forget it.

[TheLeviathan]

 

LEN did write "If the Twins were willing to accept a one-for-one swap for Dozier, he probably already would be out of town."

Which seems kind of silly -- of course they would have dealt him already if they were willing to accept just one prospect like De Leon in return.

It doesn't necessarily mean there hasn't been a second or third player component to a Dodgers offer, though. Just that it hasn't met the Twins demands yet.

 

Right and if they Twins were willing to accept a warm hug for him he'd probably be gone too.  LEN really struggles to write coherently.

[Han Joelo]

I think that the Surplus Value framework is more or less correct for valuing players, but I think that the specifics currently used by the larger sabermetric community are limited, and possibly incorrect.

 

First, there is an assumption of unlimited roster spots, infinite playing time and perfect liquidity, and therefore players that are below average but above replacement level have significant surplus value when they are cheap. In a certain sense, it is definitely true that cheap, non-terrible players have value. But I'm not remotely convinced that it scales linearly with WAR, and that role-players and superstars can be plugged into the same formula. At the extremes this is very obvious, as everyone realizes that your favorite team can't package together 6 B prospect and expect the Angels to agree to give them Mike Trout, even if the Surplus Value calculations line up. But the Surplus Value framework doesn't build in any quality-vs-quantity tradeoff, so it is hard to know how to adjust the numbers for low-ceiling players. In addition, baseball players aren't super liquid assets, so there are significant transaction costs associated with converting surplus value into an asset that will actually help the team. In particular, a good team (90+ wins) basically needs its top (by playing time) 20 players to average 2 WAR per player. If one of those players is a 1 WAR talent (like, for example, Stewart), then someone else on the roster needs to be 3+ WAR to make up the difference.

 

Second, if the Surplus Value implementation is correct, then one should be able to demonstrate that empirically. But in reality, the opposite is true. I've tracked roughly two dozen MLBer-for-prospect trades over the past three years. Using PECOTA, KATOH, The Point of Pittsburgh tables, and my own best guesses to fill in the projected values, over and over again the Surplus Value of the prospect side vastly exceeds that of the MLBer side. Generally speaking, the prospect Surplus Value is usually 150% to 200% of the MLBer Surplus Value. Examples of position players:

Zobrist/Escobar to OAK - $40M vs $65M

Zobrist to KC - $7M vs $30M

Cespedes to NYM - $15M vs $30M

Kendrick to LAD - $18M vs $30M

Frazier to CWS - $31M vs $70M

Upton to SDP - $17M vs $70M

Myers to SDP - $81M vs $172M

Lucroy to TEX - $50M vs $75M

Gomez to HOU - $50M vs $100M

 

Two significant exceptions:

Donaldson to TOR - $85M vs $66M

Simmons to ATL - $60M vs $15M // Maybe teams don't value defense?

 

One even:

Eaton to WAS - $100M vs $90M (using KATOH) or $110M (using TPOP table)

 

Two hypotheses

1) Teams value prospects for their future WAA rather than their future WAR

2) The 8% discount rate on future WAR used by TPOP and others is grossly incorrect, and a more appropriate value is something like 40%.

 

So even we agree that Dozier has roughly $50M in surplus value, I think past trades indicate that he is worth something like $75M to $100M in prospects. Someone who is super optimistic about De Leon and Stewart could agree that they get close to the $75M number. But if one isn't (and using your numbers, maybe we shouldn't be), then it seems completely reasonable to want another significant piece in the trade.

Interesting analysis. Weird that the Easton trade has been called an overpay by some, when according to this chart he should've brought even more.

 

I'll bet TR didn't have a chart like this, but I'll bet Falvey has something similar. Reminds me of Jimmy Johnson's "revolutionary" draft pick valuation chart for the NFL.

[d-mac]

 

The Twins have two former top 100 pitching prospects, both under 24, set to start the season in the rotation.  They have a solid vet in Santana and Gibson, who was a disaster last season but should be better, is perhaps the pitcher most likely to benefit from a pitch framing catcher.  Hopefully, May gets back into the rotation.  They have 2 top 100 pitching prospects sitting at AA as well.  They have the prospects.  They just have to have them start pitching well at the ML level. 

 

The Twins can also improve the staff by improving the bullpen and overall team defense by keeping Grossman and Danny Santana out of the field.  They can sign a mediocre FA starter instead of giving up Dozier.

 

That gets the pitching from historically bad to just merely mediocre and that's if things break right. There is a saying that goes "Put hope in one hand and take a poo in the other and see which one fills up first." I want them to have a good pitching staff and build a team that sustainably wins 90+ games. Holding on to Dozier doesn't get us there.

 

That being said, if the Dodgers best offer is indeed a 1:1 swap of De Leon for Dozier, I'd pass. At minimum I'd trade Dozier for De Leon and Stewart. Unfortunately, with limited demand for second basemen, the Twins are at the Dodgers' mercy.  

[Strato Guy]

Wow, DeLeon for Dozier is pretty weak. I wonder if the Dodgers countered with Stewart and Buehler if the Twins would accept. Should they? Personnally, I think that DeLeon is a little over rated and Stewart is a little under rated.

[gSutter]

I'm of the somewhat unpopular opinion that Santana should be on the block as well. I bet the market for Erv is more robust than the one for Dozier

I agree, but I think Santana might actually have more trade value at the deadline when teams are desperate to add pitching. I believe his contract is for 2 more years with a team option for a 3rd.

 

That said if someone wants Big Erv right now, I'm willing to listen. I would prefer a young hitter especially if we do deal Dozier for pitching.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I do wonder, in the absence of any reporting on the second piece of the offer (aside from Dave's), if the Dodgers offer isn't essentially De Leon and filler.

 

Berardino reported that the Twins liked Stewart, but perhaps they have been unable to get him included. The Dodgers probably aren't too eager to deal their top two SP reinforcements, and despite having a hole at 2B, they haven't seemed particularly motivated to give up much to fill it (dating back to last winter when Zobrist was a FA and Walker was available in trade).

 

I guess what I am saying is, the past month makes a lot more sense if you think of the Dodgers offer as essentially a one-for-one.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Wow, DeLeon for Dozier is pretty weak. I wonder if the Dodgers countered with Stewart and Buehler if the Twins would accept. Should they? Personnally, I think that DeLeon is a little over rated and Stewart is a little under rated.

 

I'd love De Leon and Stewart, and Buehler may be a good piece, so if they love Buehler I could also see the argument for he and Stewart. But, I have a hard time seeing a deal come together without De Leon, if even like you say, he is a tad over rated (with the shoulder) and Stewart under rated (which I agree on the latter.

[nicksaviking]

 

But people are arguing "don't trade him"......literally, people are suggesting keeping Dozier into the year is a good idea for a 59 win team....

 

Also, just curious, who the heck is going to offer more than a top 10 pitching prospect (top ten among pitchers) and other stuff?

 

I also think it's a bad move to keep him. However if the best offer is truly De Leon for Dozier straight up, I mean sheesh, I like the guy butnot  enough to take that much of a discount on Dozier. I might roll the dice and see if a team is desperate in June and Dozier hasn't completely fouled himself.

 

I might feel different if De Leon's FB was more than 91 MPH, but that seems awfully low for me to feel too comfortable that he has a good shot at being a top of the rotation guy.

[nicksaviking]

 

Wow, DeLeon for Dozier is pretty weak. I wonder if the Dodgers countered with Stewart and Buehler if the Twins would accept. Should they? Personnally, I think that DeLeon is a little over rated and Stewart is a little under rated.

 

Welcome to the site. You may have come aboard at a pretty exciting time.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Wow, DeLeon for Dozier is pretty weak. I wonder if the Dodgers countered with Stewart and Buehler if the Twins would accept. Should they? Personnally, I think that DeLeon is a little over rated and Stewart is a little under rated.

 

welcome to the site! 

[Vanimal46]

It's too bad the Dodgers went all in on Rich Hill, who IMO is a mid-rotation arm. Could have been a combo platter to offer both Erv and Dozier to get quality over quantity.

[markos]

 

I also think it's a bad move to keep him. However if the best offer is truly De Leon for Dozier straight up, I mean sheesh, I like the guy butnot  enough to take that much of a discount on Dozier. I might roll the dice and see if a team is desperate in June and Dozier hasn't completely fouled himself.

 

I might feel different if De Leon's FB was more than 91 MPH, but that seems awfully low for me to feel too comfortable that he has a good shot at being a top of the rotation guy.

BrooksBaseball has his average fastball velocities during his four starts as:
92.04
91.57
92.50
93.99

And he hit 95 in 3 of his 4 starts. I'm not sure why Fangraphs says he only averaged 91.6...

[by jiminy]

Wow, Fangraphs is sure not impressed with DeLeon. They think he'll a third or fourth starter, not an ace.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-prospects-los-angeles-dodgers/

 

They say his low-90s fastball and fly ball tendencies don't project dominance. 

 

They love Alvarez though. But he's so far off and so raw that they think there's over a 40% chance he doesn't reach mlb at all.

 

Maybe if you got both it would be worth it but they don't sound like the core of a contender.  Pretty big gamble to wait and see if Dozier can do it again though.  We'll see.

[Han Joelo]

And let me just say I feel this thread has been thoughtfully discussed for the most part. At times it threatens to devolve into a polarized "trade or don't trade" oversimplification, but for the most part I think people are in agreement, but just differ in the perception of the details. Kind of would be interesting to do a "minimum acceptable return" poll.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Wow, Fangraphs is sure not impressed with DeLeon. They think he'll a third or fourth starter, not an ace.

Probably an oversimplification. Fangraphs still gives De Leon a 55 FV, just a tick behind Alvarez and Bellinger, and their KATOH+ projection has him virtually even with Bellinger. Dave Cameron also had an article singing De Leon's praises recently.

[nicksaviking]

 

BrooksBaseball has his average fastball velocities during his four starts as:
92.04
91.57
92.50
93.99

And he hit 95 in 3 of his 4 starts. I'm not sure why Fangraphs says he only averaged 91.6...

 

Interesting. Brooks Baseball does have his avg FB at 92.4, still not great, but better.

 

I like Brooks Baseball, though it's a bit more laborious to navigate than Fangraphs. Though neither are as user friendly as BBR. I think that site is so slick even if it doesn't have as much analytical stuff as some of the others.

[nicksaviking]

It occurred to me that La Velle said the Twins were asking for final offers in an article he wrote, not a Tweet.

 

From my understanding of how the media works these days, reporters tend to "Tweet" breaking news while the (now rare) articles tend to be overall observations. Did La Velle really get the scoop that the Twins were only now asking for final offers and sat down to write a whole piece on it risking getting scooped via Twitter? Or has this been industry knowledge that the Twins have asked for final offers?

[d-mac]

 

Interesting. Brooks Baseball does have his avg FB at 92.4, still not great, but better.

 

I like Brooks Baseball, though it's a bit more laborious to navigate than Fangraphs. Though neither are as user friendly as BBR. I think that site is so slick even if it doesn't have as much analytical stuff as some of the others.

 

I personally thing BBRef is less slick than Fangraphs. Fangraphs' website is easier to navigate and is easier on the eyes. Not to mention they have more detailed stats and their articles are top notch, even if their new splits page is a bit clunky. BBRef looks like they haven't updated their format and graphics since the dot com bubble popped. I only use them for draft data and minor league stats pre 2006. 

[markos]

 

And let me just say I feel this thread has been thoughtfully discussed for the most part. At times it threatens to devolve into a polarized "trade or don't trade" oversimplification, but for the most part I think people are in agreement, but just differ in the perception of the details. Kind of would be interesting to do a "minimum acceptable return" poll.

That poll already exists! (kind of...)

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/24575-dozier-to-dodgers-feedback/

[d-mac]

 

It occurred to me that La Velle said the Twins were asking for final offers in an article he wrote, not a Tweet.

 

From my understanding of how the media works these days, reporters tend to "Tweet" breaking news while the (now rare) articles tend to be overall observations. Did La Velle really get the scoop that the Twins were only now asking for final offers and sat down to write a whole piece on it risking getting scooped via Twitter? Or has this been industry knowledge that the Twins have asked for final offers?

 

Yeah, I thought that was peculiar too. I assumed it was a tweet until, somebody pointed out it was an article in this morning's Strib. 

[doscinco]

The Twins should just walk away if they don't like the offers. Using media reports constantly to get things to cave is weak, IMO.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

The Twins should just walk away if they don't like the offers. Using media reports constantly to get things to cave is weak, IMO.

 

But, the Twins aren't unique in this sense.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's too bad the Dodgers went all in on Rich Hill, who IMO is a mid-rotation arm. Could have been a combo platter to offer both Erv and Dozier to get quality over quantity.

Hill sure didn't perform like a mid-rotation arm. He's much more of an upside wildcard than Ervin, so it's unclear they would have accepted him instead.

 

More importantly, the Dodgers gave up 3 good prospects in that deal, which made a viable package that much harder to offer the Twins now.

[markos]

 

Interesting. Brooks Baseball does have his avg FB at 92.4, still not great, but better.

 

I like Brooks Baseball, though it's a bit more laborious to navigate than Fangraphs. Though neither are as user friendly as BBR. I think that site is so slick even if it doesn't have as much analytical stuff as some of the others.

I don't have hard evidence of this, but I now recall Dan Brooks writing/talking about how he projects the PitchFX data backwards to get the actual release point and release velocity because the PitchFX system doesn't actually pick up the ball until... 10? 20? feet in front of the pitcher. Therefore, the max velocity recorded by PitchFX would be different than the max velocity reported on radar guns. I think this is true...

[doscinco]

But, the Twins aren't unique in this sense.

Maybe but this is their first major decision. And let's say if the Dodgers come with a huge offer in February... are they really going to turn it down because of the fake deadline they put on themselves?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Wow, Fangraphs is sure not impressed with DeLeon. They think he'll a third or fourth starter, not an ace.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-prospects-los-angeles-dodgers/

 

They say his low-90s fastball and fly ball tendencies don't project dominance. 

 

They love Alvarez though. But he's so far off and so raw that they think there's over a 40% chance he doesn't reach mlb at all.

 

Maybe if you got both it would be worth it but they don't sound like the core of a contender.  Pretty big gamble to wait and see if Dozier can do it again though.  We'll see.

 

After reading this, I've got to think the Dodgers are lowballing us.  With the exception of Lux, any 3 of their top 15 would get this done in a heartbeat I'd think. 

[Eris]

 

 

I might feel different if De Leon's FB was more than 91 MPH, but that seems awfully low for me to feel too comfortable that he has a good shot at being a top of the rotation guy.

 

I would add to this that De Leon appears to have only one great pitch (change up).  He has an average fastball with a hittable slider.  Maybe it is possible that he turns himself into a Kyle Hendricks.  He would probably need to develop an additional pitch.  He profiles more like a #3 starter with some upside and question marks on durability.   Personally, I think if De Leon is the center piece of a Dozier trade, the Twins should pass.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Maybe but this is their first major decision. And let's say if the Dodgers come with a huge offer in February... are they really going to turn it down because of the fake deadline they put on themselves?

 

I can't imagine there is an actual deadline. Just because Lavelle Neal wrote it in a column doesn't make it true.

[jorgenswest]

"The Twins have been pushing for De Leon plus another prospect, but the Dodgers haven’t blinked."

 

I find La Velle's article and source credible. It doesn't specifically state that De Leon is the lone player offered but makes clear he the only prospect. It makes sense that the Twins front office hasn't embraced this deal as they should have embraced a deal that included De Leon and Alvarez.

 

While this gives me more faith in the new front office, I wish there was a better market for Dozier.

 

If De Leon is the best offer, do the Twins take a major league ready pitching prospect with many years of team control or keep Dozier?

 

Both have risks. The market for Dozier could be better in July. Young major league ready pitching prospects projected to be mid-rotation starters are very valuable and don't move often. They might be able to get a pitcher a year or two away but lots of stuff can happen as they progress through AA and AAA.