Article: The August Trade Deadline

[Seth Stohs]

The Twins and interim-GM Rob Antony were active near the August 1st non-waiver trade deadline. We are nearly one-third of the way through August, and we have to wonder how busy the team will be before August 31 waiver deadline.

 

In this article, we’ll give a refresher on what can happen during August. We’ll also take a look at which Twins players could be dealt in August.Let’s start with a reminder of the Rules of the August (waiver trade deadline).

 

First and foremost, in order for a player to be traded in August, he has to be placed on revocable trade waivers. If a player is claimed, three things can happen.

• If the player is claimed by a team, the two teams have 48 hours to work out a trade agreement.
• The team can allow the player - and the entirety of their remaining contract - to go to the claiming team.
• The team can pull the player back from waivers.

Now, a team can place a player on waivers a second time. However, the player can not be pulled back if he is claimed.

 

If a player passes through waivers, he can be traded to any team.

 

In August, nearly all players are placed on waivers once, even if the team has no interest in trading the player at that time. Why? Well, maybe the team could get offered a package they just can’t turn down. If nothing else, it allows them to gauge interest in players for potential offseason moves.

 

Rob Antony is likely to put most Twins players on the roster on waivers, but we know that Max Kepler, Jose Berrios and Miguel Sano aren’t going to get traded. We know that Taylor Rogers, Trevor May and Ryan Pressly aren’t getting traded.

 

However, there are a lot of Twins players who could be discussed or even traded. I’ll try to come up with a list and you can decide for yourself if you think they could or even should be traded this month. Some will be the names we heard in July. Other names might arise either as a fallback plan or as an injury replacement.

 

THE PITCHERS

 

Ervin Santana - His name was mentioned a lot in July as a possible trade candidate. With his long history of productive pitching and a very reasonable contract for the next two seasons, one would think Santana would get claimed. Of course, that limits the likelihood of the Twins trading him. As Rob Antony pointed out on his radio show on Sunday, they decided that if they would trade Santana, it would be for a package that they were very happy with. In other words, the Twins aren’t giving him away.

 

Brandon Kintzler - Kintzler’s name was mentioned in trade rumors as well. Signed to a minor league contract before the season, Kintzler spent the first month in Rochester. However, since coming up to the Twins he has done well. In particular, he has done a terrific job as the Twins closer since Kevin Jepsen was removed from the role. The reality is that if the Twins traded him, they would be selling high. However, he will have another year of arbitration remaining. Even if he is in a seventh-inning role, he will have earned what he will get paid in 2017.With several options in the upper levels, selling high would seem to make a lot of sense. However, at his 2016 salary, he would likely be claimed which might limit the return.

 

Tommy Milone - The left-hander might be of interest to the right team. His most recent outing out of the pen was successful, a role he had very limited experience in. However, he has a lot of experience and success as a starter in his career. A team that is looking for a swing man might find Milone to be a good option.

 

Buddy Boshers - Maybe a surprise name on this list, the Twins signed him out of independent league ball in the offseason. With a much-improved array of breaking pitches, he has come a long way. Though he hasn’t been quite as good since coming back to the big leagues he was very good in AAA and in his earlier stint with the Twins. The team obviously isn’t going to trade Taylor Rogers, but maybe there’s a team in need of a left-hander. It would obviously be a minor return.

 

Michael Tonkin - Another surprising name. Tonkin has done a nice job in his final opportunity with the Twins this year. He was one of the final men to make the 25-man roster, and only really made it because he was out of options. He’s certainly had his ups and downs this year, but he does have 65 strikeouts in 55 innings this year. What is a front office supposed to make of Tonkin and his 2017 outlook. Maybe there is a team that thinks he can pitch in the 6th or 7th inning the rest of this year and maybe become a late-inning option. The Twins front office will need to decide what Tonking can be here, and how he compares with some of the prospects who are close.

 

THE HITTERS

 

Kurt Suzuki - He certainly seems to be an obvious candidate to be traded. However, reports indicate there was minimal interest in the backstop due to his defense. He is having a terrific offensive season, however. If a playoff-caliber team needs a solid, reliable backup catcher who will be able to handle any situation, Suzuki would fit the bill. Suzuki is a free agent at season’s end, and if the Twins really want him back in 2017, they can sign him as a free agent in the offseason.

 

Trevor Plouffe - There certainly would have been talked about as a July deadline trade candidate if not for his broken ribs. He’s back now and if he can play well for the next couple of weeks his name will be mentioned prominently again. He has one more year of arbitration remaining and will likely get to about $9 million in 2017. The defense at the hot corner of Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco could factor into the decision.

 

Danny Santana - The Twins and specifically Paul Molitor seems to love the game of Danny Santana. He’s a terrific athlete with good speed and a big arm. He had the strong MLB debut in 2014 and then he struggled mightily in 2015. He is out of options so he made the team as a utility player this year, able to play six positions. What is his role going forward with the Twins? Can he be the primary utility man? Or could there be a team interested in giving him a chance for a bigger role?

 

Kennys Vargas - Despite looking the complete opposite of Danny Santana, there are similarities between the two. Vargas debuted in 2014’s second half and showed power potential. However, he really struggled in 2015. He’ll be out of options in 2017 and there is certainly a log jam of DH and first base options in the organization. Could the Twins trade him?

 

Byung Ho Park - After a $25 million commitment, could the Twins deal Park in the right deal? Again, it’s about the log jam at first base and DH. He has 10 AAA homers, but he hasn’t really hit well there either. It would seem to be a sell-low on a guy with three years remaining. I’d be surprised.

 

Eduardo Escobar - Eduardo Nunez was already traded. Jorge Polanco is far from a given as a future shortstop, and Escobar has had some great second halves. Because in the worst case, he’s still a versatile utility player, he’d be a guy to keep around. It’s also why teams could show interest.

 

Robbie Grossman - Another guy brought in on a minor league deal, Grossman took off right away for the Twins. He has cooled off and his playing time has lessened but if a team is looking for a fourth or fifth outfielder who can put together a quality plate appearance, maybe Grossman can be that guy.

 

So there you have it, a list of Twins players that could still be moved in August. Some of course, are more likely to be traded than others. I would say that Suzuki and Kintzler are the two players most likely to get traded this month. In each case, the return would likely be a player that we have never heard of

 

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[theBOMisthebomb]

The top priority should be to move Plouffe. It would also be nice to sell high on Grossman.

[TheBoofIsLoose]

If they want to see what Polanco can accomplish I don't see how they can keep Plouffe. Shipping out Grossman might be premature yet, he is still reliable, gets on base, and is more valuable than Santana in the OF. We saw already this year the overconfidence with the outfield and how that blew up in their face in April/May.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The top priority should be to move Plouffe. It would also be nice to sell high on Grossman.

Eh, I don't think it's possible to "sell high" on Grossman. He is what he is and teams know it, at least today. He has 269 PAs. No team is going to pay based on the ~250 successful(ish) plate appearances he has received this season.

 

For now, Grossman should be a keeper unless something markedly better comes along. If he starts off 2017 with an OPS over .750 and posts another good season, then maybe he has some value.

 

But not now.

[Vanimal46]

Moving Plouffe is the highest priority. No reason at all for him to return in 2017, so get whatever you can for him. 

I'd also like for them to move Milone, and 1 of Boshers or Kintzler. 

[Don Walcott]

Is there no chance they trade Dozier?

[alarp33]

Plouffe

Suzuki

Milone

Kintzler

 

Return isn't really important

 

*Not including Danny Santana because I don't want to get my hopes up

Edited August 9, 2016 by alarp33

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Is there no chance they trade Dozier?

Extremely unlikely.

 

1. It's likely the Twins want to keep Dozier.

 

2. He won't clear waivers.

 

3. That means you need to negotiate only with the team who claims him.

 

4. That team is unlikely to have the prospects you want or is unwilling to pay the price you want for Brian.

 

Many of the same things apply to Ervin Santana but Dozier is more valuable and cheaper. He will return much more than Santana, which makes the job of moving him in August even more difficult.

 

Not impossible, though.

[Loosey]

If Milone is claimed I suspect the Twins will try to work out a trade but even if it doesn't happen, I think they will just let whomever claims him to take him since they DFA'd him two months ago.

 

I would like to see Suzuki, Kintzler, Plouffe and Danny Santana get moved.  If blown away on an offer for Ervin Santana that would be ok, but I am beginning to have faith in him for next year at least based on how well he has pitched as of late.

[Mike Sixel]

I guess no one is dealt. And, I don't think that's a huge issue at this point. 

[markominne]

Trading Ervin makes no sense if the Twins think they will contend next year (they should). Trading Suzuki is problematic; after watching Centeno play hacky-sack with pitches in the dirt the last few days, and with the dearth of catching in the minors, unless Mitch Garver can make the jump they really need Suzuki, not only this year, but perhaps next year, as well.  Moving Plouffe has to happen, but in August will likely depend upon a third baseman on a contending team going down; he's too inconsistent to be valuable just as an extra bat. Kintzler, Milone, Boshers, Park and Grossman should all be available should any other team come calling. All are replaceable with people on the roster or in the system, imho.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Eh, I don't think it's possible to "sell high" on Grossman. He is what he is and teams know it, at least today. He has 269 PAs. No team is going to pay based on the ~250 successful(ish) plate appearances he has received this season.

 

For now, Grossman should be a keeper unless something markedly better comes along. If he starts off 2017 with an OPS over .750 and posts another good season, then maybe he has some value.

 

But not now.

 

Correct... No need to trade Grossman. He's a solid 4th/5th OF going forward... I only brought him up because if you can get a C prospect for him (and I don't think they could), they should certainly strongly consider it. 

[jorgenswest]

Players without significant contracts will get blocked. The return on others will not shift the franchise.

 

If a team claims Plouffe or Suzuki with the intention of blocking (they don't offer a player in return), should the Twins let them go?

 

What would be the point of keeping Plouffe in that case? His arbitration award will make him even more difficult to trade this winter. Taking him to arbitration almost certainly means he is on the 25 next year. If they don't plan on taking him to arbitration, why keep him in September? Play Sano, Polanco and Vargas more often.

 

They can also let Suzuki go and give the time to Centeno and Murphy. Suzuki may be able to get a multiyear contract this winter. I hope it is not from the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

I admit that they are making me think they should keep Suzuki next year.......but I don't love/like that idea at all....

[Seth Stohs]

 

Is there no chance they trade Dozier?

 

I don't think so. I mean, he would likely get claimed by one of the first teams so there would be limited return at this time. They could get more for him in the offseason. 

 

I'd spend the rest of the year with Polanco playing mostly at SS and hope he can be adequate. I would not look to trade Dozier. We 'hope' Polanco might be as good as Dozier is.

[Hrbek70]

Love Plouffe, but they need to move him before next year. Maybe a team has a 3B go down e next few weeks and they come calling.

 

If Millone is claimed, Twins should tell them he is yours. Enjoy the high WHIP and inconsistencies he brings to the table

 

Torn on Suzuki. Guess we could get him back in free agency, but that rarely happens. Would be nice to free up some playing time for Garver in September. Centeno has done OK as a backup, but his D cannot be counted on.

[jorgenswest]

I admit that they are making me think they should keep Suzuki next year.......but I don't love/like that idea at all....

Suzuki will be looking for a multiyear deal. The supply this year is limited. Ramos and Wieters are better options if they make it to market. Hundley, Castro and Suzuki are the only others teams might consider starting. Castro has the framing numbers and younger. He might be more valued than Suzuki. Suzuki is next and could get a couple of year from a desperate team.

 

The Twins may need to try to trade again this winter. Maybe they can offer up something better than Hicks.

[Mike Sixel]

I have always had a fan crush on Castro.....

[troyhobbs]

 

 

We 'hope' Polanco might be as good as Dozier is.

We also 'hope' the Twins get some pitching while Dozier is still good.

[jorgenswest]

I have always had a fan crush on Castro.....

Both his framing and pitch blocking ability rank high at BP. He may not hit as well as Suzuki next year but might be able to make up for it if he can get more called strikes and reduce wild pitches.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Correct... No need to trade Grossman. He's a solid 4th/5th OF going forward... I only brought him up because if you can get a C prospect for him (and I don't think they could), they should certainly strongly consider it.

Oh, sure. I'm not faulting you for putting on the list, I'm only taking issue with the concept of him being a "sell high" candidate right now.

 

If someone calls about him and is willing to offer something of value, you jump on that.

[Rosterman]

 The Twins getting any significant return on any f the above names would appear to be slim or none, sadly.

 

The one who could draw the best would be Santana, but only if he totally cleared waivers. And he just might, if teams think the Twins may be playing a game and would happily let him walk to lose his salary (which is not totally out of the question).

 

There is little or no deed for a team to buy high on any of the bullpen arms or Grossman. All those guys are easily replaceable by arms in a team's system at worst, at best...they can find another arm if need be from someone, somewhere. None of the players are game changers. If a team claims them, the Twins would probably get just salary relief as well as that dreaded player-to-be-named later...essentially someone who will be cut from the 40-man or someone just outside of the pecking order of needing roster protection (or, better yet, cash!).

 

At some point, the Twins will need to make a decision on Plouffe, Park and Vargas. You can't have them all. Can it be that NO ONE wants any of these guys, which is sad. throw in Walker, who has been bypassed, for now, by Palka...The Twins have a gaggle of players that they could live without, but keeping all of them creates problems they don't need going forth.

 

That is the dilemma of the Twins right now...are certain players worth anything to anyone else except for depth (probably at the minor league level and a call-up -- i.e. Swarzak, Parmelee, Duensing as examples). 

[Darius]

I'd certainly do my best to move Milone, Plouffe, Suzuki, and Grossman.

 

I don't think any of them will/would get any serious interest.

 

I hope that they'd hang on to Vargas, Santana, Park, Escobar, Park, Kintzler, and Tonkin. They still have upside, and/or can be useful in the future.

[jimmer]

 

I'd certainly do my best to move Milone, Plouffe, Suzuki, and Grossman.

I don't think any of them will/would get any serious interest.

I hope that they'd hang on to Vargas, Santana, Park, Escobar, Park, Kintzler, and Tonkin. They still have upside, and/or can be useful in the future.

which Santana?

[DocBauer]

Kintzler is kind of interesting to me. I've thought it might be a good idea to sign 1 veteran guy for the back end of the bullpen. Maybe someone like Hawkins was, looking for that final year before hanging it up. Said veteran wouldn't cost a lot, could be flipped at some point, and would let you ease Chargois or Pressly or someone in to a close role.

 

But with the way he's pitched, I'm almost tempted to bring Kintzler back for another year to fill that role.

[Riverbrian]

Suzuki is the only trade chip that I have my eye on right now. 

 

Because he is a FA next year. If you can get anything for him... it's better than nothing. 

 

If the Twins want him back they can always re-sign him. 

 

If they can't re-sign him... I don't believe it will kill the team. 

 

 

 

[CampQ]

There is little or no deed for a team to buy high on any of the bullpen arms or Grossman. All those guys are easily replaceable by arms in a team's system at worst, at best...they can find another arm if need be from someone, somewhere.

I agree with you for the most part, but I was thinking of the Dodgers, who have 12 pitchers on the DL and are playing for the division agaisnt a tough Gians squad. Situations could be need-inducing.

[birddog]

Someone has to bring it up: Guessing that the Twins will put Mauer on waivers as we've heard they've done before, Seth, (1) what are the odds another team would claim him, and (2) would the Twins possibly let him go if another team did?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Someone has to bring it up: Guessing that the Twins will put Mauer on waivers as we've heard they've done before, Seth, (1) what are the odds another team would claim him, and (2) would the Twins possibly let him go if another team did?

 

He won't agree to go.

 

And, at this point, he's playing very well, why would they want him gone?

[gil4]

 

If a team claims Plouffe or Suzuki with the intention of blocking (they don't offer a player in return), should the Twins let them go?

 

Solid yes for Plouffe.  Weak probably not for Suzuki.