Article: What Would Happen If MLB Held An Expansion Draft?

[Seth Stohs]

 

1) RH SP Jose Berrios
2) RH RP Nick Burdi  (flip a coin w/ health)
3) OF Byron Buxton
4) RH RP JT Chargois
5) OF Max Kepler

6) OF Eddie Rosario
7) RH RP Trevor May
8) 2B Jorge Polanco (best defender and hitter at 2B)

9) 3B Miguel Sano

10) RH RP Tyler Duffey
11) SS  Nick Gordon
12) LH SP Stephen Gonsalves

13) LH SP Tyler Jay  

14) SS Eduardo Nunez (he's been good for both years we had him)

15) RH RP Trevor Hildenberger (just gets it done)

 

Nobody is going to take Mauer's contract anyway despite the fact that he still has some gas in his tank.  Nunez personality and free spirit will become infectious with young core.  Dozier is holding back a better potential player in Polanco IMO.  Polanco never should have been experimented at SS.  He has always been a GREAT second baseman defensively and consistent hitter (11 doubles / 6 triples / 5 HRs - in AAA).  Second guessing myself on Rogers; Pressley; and Gibson only.

 

Jay doesn't have to be added since he was drafted in 2015 (unless he's called up before the end of the year - he won't be). 

[Mike Sixel]

I can't believe people leaving Stewart unprotected, for some of these other players.

[J_Dobs]

 

I'm curious of the 5/10 rule, as well.  From Wikipedia  [yeah, kinda lazy this morning]

 

"5/10 Rule whereby players who have been with a club for 5 consecutive years and have been a major league player for 10 years cannot be traded without their consent."

 

How about exposed to Expansion Draft?

 

Why would an Expansion Team select Mauer?  Veteran presence with only 2 (?) years left on contract?

 

Edit:  Adding that, from the expansion team perspective,  I personally wouldn't do this.  I'd go after all the young prospect I could corral.

 

From what I believe I have heard in the past around discussions like this, if you have a no-trade clause you are forced to protect that player in case of expansion draft.

[Vanimal46]

It's also pretty telling where this organization is currently when May, and the occasional mention of Pressly/Gibson are the only MLB arms people would keep. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

When I first starting reading this I thought it'd be much more difficult to decide on only 15 players to protect. But after looking at the your list and reasons for not protecting certain players it seemed almost easy. And if you figure in all the other 30 organizations unprotected players the likelihood of losing some of the 16,17,18.... players seems even lower.

 

I mean, you're going to lose one guy after round 1, and then be able to protect three more. You'll lose 1 guy after round 2. And, almost a 50/50 chance of losing someone in round 3.

 

So, in theory you could lose someone in your 16-18 range and someone (or two) in your 20-22 range. And even then, it depends on if the expansion team chooses big league talent or prospects.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'm curious of the 5/10 rule, as well.  From Wikipedia  [yeah, kinda lazy this morning]

 

"5/10 Rule whereby players who have been with a club for 5 consecutive years and have been a major league player for 10 years cannot be traded without their consent."

 

How about exposed to Expansion Draft?

 

Why would an Expansion Team select Mauer?  Veteran presence with only 2 (?) years left on contract?

 

Edit:  Adding that, from the expansion team perspective,  I personally wouldn't do this.  I'd go after all the young prospect I could corral.

 

An expansion team wouldn't select him, but it "MAY" be a requirement to include such a player in the 15 to remove the possibility. 

 

It's all hypothetical.

[Next Year]

With Polanco so highly thought of (I agree) here in the comments, its really going to hurt next year when he's given the Arcia treatment and left to rot on the bench

[Vanimal46]

 

With Polanco so highly thought of (I agree) here in the comments, its really going to hurt next year when he's given the Arcia treatment and left to rot on the bench

Welcome to TD! Your username should be relevant for the next 2-3-15 years

[SwainZag]

For the first 2 rounds, I wouldn't be protecting any relievers.  Each team is drafting 28 players apiece and more than likely going for upside.  I protect the position players and starters.  You get 3 more protections after Round 1 and 2.

[dxpavelka]

 

What is the 10 and 5 rule that would impact Mauer? I doubt he would be selected in an expansion draft at this point in his career so I'm not sure why he would need to be protected...

The rules would likely dictate that since he can't be traded he also could not be exposed to the draft.

[dxpavelka]

The only strong disagreement I'd have would be Kohl Stewart.  He's still a 21 year old 1st round draft pick with a career minor league ERA under 3.  Those don't grow on trees.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

For the first 2 rounds, I wouldn't be protecting any relievers.  Each team is drafting 28 players apiece and more than likely going for upside.  I protect the position players and starters.  You get 3 more protections after Round 1 and 2.

This makes sense. Then from the original 15 you could consider exposing maybe Chargois, Rogers or Pressly, or some combination, though I would still protect Burdi.

[Seth Stohs]

For a little perspective, here is a page which shows all of the players selected in the 1997 draft. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Major_League_Baseball_expansion_draft

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

This makes sense. Then from the original 15 you could consider exposing maybe Chargois, Rogers or Pressly, or some combination, though I would still protect Burdi.

 

I just think the game has changed. Teams now need starters to go 6 innings and then turn it over to the bullpens. I think May and Pressly and Chargois and Burdi can be dominant bullpen arms. May and Pressly already are pretty close to that. And, like I wrote, I think May could still move to starting, but they just have to commit to that.

[Seth Stohs]

 

The only strong disagreement I'd have would be Kohl Stewart.  He's still a 21 year old 1st round draft pick with a career minor league ERA under 3.  Those don't grow on trees.

 

I can't disagree with that, and if I replaced someone to add him it would likely be Taylor Rogers. 

[FormerMinnasotan]

1.Jose Berrios

2.Max Kepler

3.Byron Buxton

4.Jorge Polanco

5.Miguel Sano

6.Joe Mauer

7.JT Chargios

8.Trevor May

9.Nick Gordon

10.Fernando Romero

11.Eddie Rosario

12.Nick Burdi

13.Brian Dozier

14.Stephen Gonsalves

15.Kohl Stewart

[diehardtwinsfan]

just picking a nit.  I wouldn't protect anyone I didn't fear would get drafted, and even though Mauer is Mr. Twin, I don't think anyone is picking up that contract. 

[alarp33]

 

just picking a nit.  I wouldn't protect anyone I didn't fear would get drafted, and even though Mauer is Mr. Twin, I don't think anyone is picking up that contract. 

 

In this Hypothetical you have no choice, he has to be one of the 15 protected since he has a no move clause.  

 

FWIW, the same goes for the Hockey expansion draft.  I believe the Wild have no choice but to protect Parise and Suter, whether they believe the expansion team would take on their contracts or not

[bluechipper]

 

 

3. Sano  - terrible defensively but maybe slightly above average offensively

Maybe?

 

That probably the most pessimistic projection for Sano that I've read.

[TwinsTerritory]

 

For a little perspective, here is a page which shows all of the players selected in the 1997 draft. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Major_League_Baseball_expansion_draft

At the start of the conversation I thought each team only protecting 15 players would leave some pretty good players for the expansion teams.  After checking that list from 1997, I was mistaken.  Not very many players that had long (or successful) major league careers.

[Seth Stohs]

 

just picking a nit.  I wouldn't protect anyone I didn't fear would get drafted, and even though Mauer is Mr. Twin, I don't think anyone is picking up that contract. 

 

No one would, but as written in the article and throughout the comments, that's not why he's included.

[ashbury]

At the start of the conversation I thought each team only protecting 15 players would leave some pretty good players for the expansion teams.  After checking that list from 1997, I was mistaken.  Not very many players that had long (or successful) major league careers.

I also didn't see them drafting prospects from below AAA, though I didn't search exhaustively. That seems like the direction I would go after about my first 10 picks. Instead they were focusing on guys with at least a little bit of MLB experience.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

At the start of the conversation I thought each team only protecting 15 players would leave some pretty good players for the expansion teams.  After checking that list from 1997, I was mistaken.  Not very many players that had long (or successful) major league careers.

Try the 1992 expansion draft for the Marlins and Rockies. Some better players, including a future Hall-of-Famer (more likely than not but no guarantee) and some other interesting guys, like a young Joe Girardi.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Major_League_Baseball_expansion_draft