Reds Have "Kicked the Tires" on Span

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yup, after checking Fangraphs, I'm even more sure the difference is massive. Not to mention Denard has a very nice contract. Put him in a smaller stadium, and he's even better, offensively and defensively.

Yep, it should be noted that even OPS+ is slanted in favor of Stubbs in this case (and a 79 to 105 OPS+ difference is already "massive"). Cincinnati's second-ranked pitching staff is skewing the results in GAB compared to Minnesota's 29th-ranked pitching staff in TF.

[nicksaviking]

The Reds already have four quality starters under the age of 26 and that's assuming they don't give Chapman a chance to start next year. It might sound rediculous, but along with Sulbaran, they have three stud arms in AA and may have nowhere for them to go in the next year. Dealing one of them for a long-term upgrade to the leadoff and CF spots is probably something they should be willing to do.

[Oxtung]

Yup, after checking Fangraphs, I'm even more sure the difference is massive. Not to mention Denard has a very nice contract. Put him in a smaller stadium, and he's even better, offensively and defensively.

I guess we'll just have to disagree about what the definition of "massive" is. To me "massive" would be Willingham's .957 OPS and 157 OPS+. I understand and agree that Span would be an upgrade and obviously his OBP and OPS would be upgrades. My only point is that .07 OPS isn't "massive" and blowing things out of proportion to make a point doesn't help further a discussion.

 

Great American Ball Park isn't any smaller than TF in CF. It's proportions are just different. It's slightly shallower at straight away center but it is slightly deeper in left center and right center. Spans defense should play about the same. On a purely hypothetical note a playing in a smaller stadium would actually reduce a players defensive impact. The larger the area to cover the better the defense is required and the more you can show off just how good you are.

[ashbury]

A pitcher with stuff, and promise, LHer to boot, that has reached AA. I don't think you'll get better than that.

There's an understatement. If Ryan can pull that off, say combining Span with a throw-in, he has my further respect.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Great American Ball Park isn't any smaller than TF in CF. It's proportions are just different. It's slightly shallower at straight away center but it is slightly deeper in left center and right center. Spans defense should play about the same. On a purely hypothetical note a playing in a smaller stadium would actually reduce a players defensive impact. The larger the area to cover the better the defense is required and the more you can show off just how good you are.

It may not be much smaller than Target Field but it plays a lot smaller. It's consistently in the top 10 in HRs allowed. It's #1 this season, even with the Reds second-best-in-baseball pitching staff (and those aren't all Reds homers, they're only 12th in baseball in homeruns as a team). In its three year history, Target Field has ranked 30th, 20th, and 18th in homers allowed. Considering that the Twins pitching staff has been second worst in baseball in the last two years, the 20th and 18th rankings are probably as high as the park will ever get.

 

Span hit 8 homers in his last dome season. He hasn't hit more than 3 in a season since. It's not hard to envision a world where he tacks on another 20-30 OPS points by moving to a smaller stadium. All it takes is 3-4 warning track fly balls in Target Field to turn into homeruns in the GAB to do it. Span has decent pop but Target Field is death to lefties so it doesn't show.

[rogrulz30]

The only way I would trade Span is to the Reds. As we know the Reds are horrible at leadoff, putting Span leadoff for the next few years in Cinci is a huge upgrade. Which then puts a higher trade value for him. Span's deal to the Twins is really good, I don't understand trading Span unless we get an impact pitcher and that is hard to do. Span isn't an All Star caliber CFer, but putting in perspective what he does for the team vs. the price we pay is really big. In order to get rid of Span it really has to be a good deal, or easily just keep him.

[Oxtung]

It may not be much smaller than Target Field but it plays a lot smaller. It's consistently in the top 10 in HRs allowed. It's #1 this season, even with the Reds second-best-in-baseball pitching staff (and those aren't all Reds homers, they're only 12th in baseball in homeruns as a team). In its three year history, Target Field has ranked 30th, 20th, and 18th in homers allowed. Considering that the Twins pitching staff has been second worst in baseball in the last two years, the 20th and 18th rankings are probably as high as the park will ever get.

 

Span hit 8 homers in his last dome season. He hasn't hit more than 3 in a season since. It's not hard to envision a world where he tacks on another 20-30 OPS points by moving to a smaller stadium. All it takes is 3-4 warning track fly balls in Target Field to turn into homeruns in the GAB to do it. Span has decent pop but Target Field is death to lefties so it doesn't show.

GABP might let more balls out and Span's OPS might climb by as you say. None of that will affect his defensive value though. When you get down to it what matters is how big is the area you need to cover. The bigger the area the better your defender better be. Now, there might be some difference when it comes to wind patterns and balls getting moved by air currents in stadiums, but again that really isn't an effect of the size of the stadium. Even if balls are getting blown around CF seems like it would come out close to equal in the "balls blown out of your defensive area" and "balls blown into your defensive area" game.

[Chance]

I would do Span Liriano and Capps for hamilton and Cingrani. Heck, anyone that can be traded to make the deal happen. I would be super pumped about the twins again!

[Brock Beauchamp]

GABP might let more balls out and Span's OPS might climb by as you say. None of that will affect his defensive value though. When you get down to it what matters is how big is the area you need to cover. The bigger the area the better your defender better be. Now, there might be some difference when it comes to wind patterns and balls getting moved by air currents in stadiums, but again that really isn't an effect of the size of the stadium. Even if balls are getting blown around CF seems like it would come out close to equal in the "balls blown out of your defensive area" and "balls blown into your defensive area" game.

Every major league OF is large enough where a defender can't cover it all. While GAB's somewhat less spacious dimensions could make OF defense slightly less important, it's not as if Span's range is suddenly marginalized. Outfield coverage isn't only about how far you can run but it's also how quickly you get there. A line drive could be hit 30 feet from the center fielder but if the guy isn't quick enough to cover that 30 feet in less than 2-2.5 seconds, that ball still drops for a hit.

[Oxtung]

Every major league OF is large enough where a defender can't cover it all. While GAB's somewhat less spacious dimensions could make OF defense slightly less important, it's not as if Span's range is suddenly marginalized. Outfield coverage isn't only about how far you can run but it's also how quickly you get there. A line drive could be hit 30 feet from the center fielder but if the guy isn't quick enough to cover that 30 feet in less than 2-2.5 seconds, that ball still drops for a hit.

Lots of things in this post that I would like to comment on but this thread isn't really the place for it. If you, or anyone else, would be interested in having a discussion about outfield defense or how ballparks shape affects defensive play I would be interested in going down that path and seeing where we end up. I have some ideas but certainly have never given it any real in depth thought.

 

Until someone starts that thread I'll leave my thoughts at this:

 

1) Of course a defender has to cover all of his assigned outfield so outfield size does matter. You can't necessarily get to everything in the air but you still have to get there.

 

2) GAB and TF are roughly the same dimensions in CF so the outfield play should be equally important.

 

3) In baseball terms speed and distance covered are really two sides of the same coin.

[drjim]

Span is worth more than just Cingrani.

 

One other option I was actually thinking was Mesoraco. I wonder if the Reds would include him in a trade if the Twins flipped back a certain beloved backup catcher.

[70charger]

Span is worth more than just Cingrani.

 

One other option I was actually thinking was Mesoraco. I wonder if the Reds would include him in a trade if the Twins flipped back a certain beloved backup catcher.

I said "yes" to Span for Cingrani straight up. I say "yes, yes, YES!" to this deal. I don't think the Reds are using Mesoraco well anyway.

 

Also, it's been covered before, but Span plugs a huge hole for the Reds. An upgrade of .100 points in OBP (for leadoff hitters, to boot) is ridiculous, and if I'm the Reds GM, I'm thinking that kind of thing really helps me out.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Span is worth more than just Cingrani.

 

One other option I was actually thinking was Mesoraco. I wonder if the Reds would include him in a trade if the Twins flipped back a certain beloved backup catcher.

I don't think the Reds have any desire to trade Mesoraco, he's their future catcher.

 

And color me crazy, but I think the Mauer/Doumit/Butera is the way to go moving forward.

 

I read up a lot on Reds prospects last night and if the Twins could get either Cingrani or Daniel Corcino, SS Didi Gregorius and a lower-level pitcher (or Yorman Rodriguez), I think I would pull the trigger.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And color me crazy, but I think the Mauer/Doumit/Butera is the way to go moving forward.

More importantly, how much could you possibly gain by replacing Butera with a catcher that isn't awful with a bat? The guy is only going to get ~130 PAs this season. The amount of damage he can inflict is limited.

[Parise11]

Get it done Span for Cigrani/Stephenson and another highly rated prospect!

[Vervehound]

cingrani would become our best pitching prospect right away but...stephenson has one of the best arms in the minors - he's flashing triple digits fairly regularly. i was hoping we could somehow pry syndergaard loose from the jays but stephenson would be a grade A plan B.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd take Span for Cigrani straight up... Hard throwing lefties getting tons of Ks in AA aren't exactly easy to come by. The reds still have one other nicely rated pitching prospect too. I do think a package deal here with Span and Liriano makes sense, but I doubt the reds would want to part with that much AA talent. FWIW, Sickes graded the following guys:

 

Cingrani B- (though given how he's done this year, I'd think this is going to go up). #6 overall

Corcino B. #3 overall

Hamilton B+ (also top 100). #2 overall

Stephenson B. #4 overall.

 

Getting one of these guys would be pretty impressive. I'm doubtful we could get two unless the Reds are more desparate than I thought. They have some nice pitching depth that fits nicely with the Twins needs.

[John Bonnes]

More Reds-Span talk. This time from current MLB.com CIN beat writer (and former MLB.com MIN beat writer) Mark Sheldon:

 

http://mlb.mlblogs.com/2012/07/27/reds-still-want-leadoff-help/

[Shane Wahl]

The Reds will get Victorino.

[John Bonnes]

The Reds will get Victorino.

According to Heyman, the Reds and Phillies are no longer talking. Maybe that opens the door for a Span deal?

 

https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/230289400695762944

[Brock Beauchamp]

According to Heyman, the Reds and Phillies are no longer talking. Maybe that opens the door for a Span deal?

 

https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/230289400695762944

I think Heyman should try to find a little cornier background for his Twitter page.

[DaveW]

According to Heyman, the Reds and Phillies are no longer talking. Maybe that opens the door for a Span deal?

 

https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/230289400695762944

Wow, I am very thankful I am not a Phillies fan at this point, they have completely screwed the pooch with nearly every move they have made the past year or two.

100 million to Ryan Howard?

Overpaying Hamels.

 

Not trading your free agents when you have the chance? If they end up holding onto Victorino this will be a disaster for Philly.

[DPJ]

I think Heyman should try to find a little cornier background for his Twitter page.

I'm shocked it's not a picture of his lord and savior Scott Boras.

[DPJ]

Wow, I am very thankful I am not a Phillies fan at this point, they have completely screwed the pooch with nearly every move they have made the past year or two.

100 million to Ryan Howard?

Overpaying Hamels.

 

Not trading your free agents when you have the chance? If they end up holding onto Victorino this will be a disaster for Philly.

 

The Phillies are having the greatest run in the history of that franchise. They've been in win now mode for the last 5-6 years. When you're in win-now mode this is what happens.

 

Ruban has made plenty of mistakes, but I get why he did them.

[alarp33]

Wow, I am very thankful I am not a Phillies fan at this point, they have completely screwed the pooch with nearly every move they have made the past year or two.

100 million to Ryan Howard?

Overpaying Hamels.

 

Not trading your free agents when you have the chance? If they end up holding onto Victorino this will be a disaster for Philly.

It sounds like Victorino is going to the Dodgers

[gunnarthor]

The Phillies are having the greatest run in the history of that franchise. They've been in win now mode for the last 5-6 years. When you're in win-now mode this is what happens.

 

Ruban has made plenty of mistakes, but I get why he did them.

Agreed. It's part of the cycle if your not the Yankees. Phillies have a lot of money so they'll have some room to regroup. I'm glad their ownership went all in.

[DaveW]

The Phillies are having the greatest run in the history of that franchise. They've been in win now mode for the last 5-6 years. When you're in win-now mode this is what happens.

 

Ruban has made plenty of mistakes, but I get why he did them.

Does this year count as part of the greatest run? They have like $100 mil tied up per year to the following players then next few seasons; Lee, Halladay, Hamels, Howard.

 

They are going to have a hell of a time fielding a lineup.

[DPJ]

Does this year count as part of the greatest run? They have like $100 mil tied up per year to the following players then next few seasons; Lee, Halladay, Hamels, Howard.

 

They are going to have a hell of a time fielding a lineup.

Well it was going to end eventually ( even though I personally could see them winning the East next season) The Phillies were all in and this is what you get, alot of bloated contracts. They can still move Lee and that frees up some cash, they can make things happen still. It's not like they're doomed.

 

We'd be kneeling at the Pohlads feet if they had the same commitment to winning.

[Mike Sixel]

The Howard contract was riduculously bad. They outbid themselves, no one else was going to pay that. Just bad. I have no major issue with the Halladay and Lee signings, frankly. That is the cost of great pitching these days.

[Jim Crikket]

Looking at what the Dodgers gave up for Victorino (from Tim Dierkes MLBTR), let me ask this... if this is the going rate for a CF and is comparable to what TR is getting offered for Span, do you take it? (Personally... I don't think so):

 

Martin, the Dodgers' first-round draft pick from 2008, owns a 3.58 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, and 0.38 HR/9 in 118 Double-A innings this year. Drafted as a raw high schooler, Baseball America ranked Martin 17th on their Dodgers prospect list prior to the season. They wrote that Martin "maintains the ceiling of a No. 2 starter but has a long way to go."

Lindblom, 25, has a 3.02 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.70 HR/9, and 38% groundball rate in 47 2/3 relief innings this year, so he's had some issues with the longball. He doesn't have much big league service time, and is technically under team control through 2017. Drafted in the second round in '08, Lindblom was once considered one of the team's top prospects. Lindblom was made more expendable by the Dodgers' acquisition of League from the Mariners last night.