Article: What To Do With Phil Hughes?

[Nick Nelson]

One of the trends that I was most interested in following during spring training was the velocity readings from Phil Hughes. His drop-off in average fastball speed last year – down about 1.5 MPH from the previous season – was symptomatic of an overall reduction in effectiveness that turned him from the rotation's best contributor in 2014 to its worst in 2015.

 

Unfortunately, this year Hughes is continuing to slide the wrong way in just about every regard. And that's an extremely disturbing development, given that he is under contract longer than any other player on the team.On Tuesday night, Hughes was gritty. It was an admirable outing, without question. One day after the worst start that the Twins have seen in many years, he took the ball and gave a hell of an effort, weaving his way through six shutout innings without having much bite on any of his pitches. The veteran hurler was crafty enough to cruise through the lineup twice but warned his manager before the seventh that he was running out of gas. At this point, he hadn't thrown 70 pitches.

 

This is the most pronounced and clear-cut example of something that's been noticeable for some time: for whatever reason, the right-hander's arm strength is deteriorating. He admitted to shoulder fatigue after Tuesday's game, and this isn't a particularly new development. It's a situation that needs to be monitored and handled very carefully, given how deeply the Twins have invested in him.

 

Terry Ryan went all-in on Hughes following a fantastic debut in Minnesota, signing the former Yankee to a three-year extension despite the fact that two seasons remained on his original deal. It was an odd move but was reflective of the sheer excellence Hughes displayed in 2014, when he pitched like a legitimate ace, and the dire need for any kind of sustained reliability in the starting corps.

 

The favorable terms of Hughes' deal made it palatable to even those who felt he was very unlikely to repeat his sterling results from that first season with the Twins. His average annual salary in the reconfigured contract was less than $12 million, which is roughly the going rate for an average mid-rotation starter in free agency. With his pinpoint command and his history of missing bats at a reasonable clip, he seemed like almost a sure bet to at least maintain at that level, even if his historically incredible strikeout-to-walk ratio was bound to normalize a bit.

 

The other point of reassurance in the Hughes extension was his age. Still amidst his theoretical prime, the righty would still be 33 at the end of his renewed pact. That's the same age that fellow free agent signings Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco are now.

 

Yet, Hughes' arm is exhibiting the signs you might expect to see from someone that age. His velocity continues to decline – the fastball is now clocking at 90.4 MPH on average after registering last year at a career-low 90.7 MPH. He told reporters that his fatigue issue dates back about four starts but a glance at the chart below from Brooks Baseball shows a downward pitch speed trend dating back much, much further – basically to the start of his Twins tenure.

 

 

http://s32.postimg.org/b6gbe7kzp/2016_05_17_2220.png

Unsurprisingly, this drop has coincided with worsening results. To his credit, Hughes has been holding his own, owing almost entirely to his truly elite control, but now even that isn't getting him by. On a night where he finally managed to get outs (albeit several hard-hit ones), he couldn't get through 80 pitches.

 

Sticking with the status quo doesn't seem to be an option here. Hughes is going to be here through 2019 and his long-term outlook is the foremost concern. If he's going through a dead arm period it's been gradually building up for quite a long time, and that doesn't seem to be a great sign. Given the growing irrelevance of this season, it might be wisest to shut him down for a while.

 

The hits keep on coming.

 

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[Winston Smith]

The problem is most of the staff needs to be shut down. 

[ScrapTheNickname]

To all those who ranted and raved during the game (including Bert Blyleven) about Paul Molitor's awful decision, I must say that when you are sitting on your couch you do not know the facts of what is happening in between the lines. Sometimes it is best not to have a opinion until the facts are in. And the funny thing about facts, they are seldom all the way in. In other words, I suggest to certain TD members: R-E-L-A-X (to quote Aaron Rodgers).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I heard that Hughes told the coaches he was getting a little fatigued and that they should keep an eye on him. Getting fatigued after 6 innings and 70 pitches is worrisome no matter how you slice it. Maybe just one night, maybe not. He also has a history of not wanting to stay in games, which would be another concern.

[jimbo92107]

Shut him down for a couple weeks, then put him in the bull pen. He's still got great command and knows how to pitch, but he can't go 100 pitches anymore. That spells veteran middle reliever. 

[Mr. Brooks]

To all those who ranted and raved during the game (including Bert Blyleven) about Paul Molitor's awful decision, I must say that when you are sitting on your couch you do not know the facts of what is happening in between the lines. Sometimes it is best not to have a opinion until the facts are in. And the funny thing about facts, they are seldom all the way in. In other words, I suggest to certain TD members: R-E-L-A-X (to quote Aaron Rodgers).

Why isn't he on the DL?

He doesn't get to have it both ways, sorry.

If he's healthy enough to start, he should be expected to go 100+ pitches. If not, he should be on the DL, period.

I mean, is he trying to tough it out because we are in a pennant race?

[Mr. Brooks]

How can so many Twins pitchers have arm or shoulder fatigue so early in the season?

It's pretty clear the training staff or techniques need to change.

Is this club still adamantly against long toss for its pitchers?

[clutterheart]

12 MM a year to be a bullpen guy?  Another great deal for our GM for Life

[notoriousgod71]

 

To all those who ranted and raved during the game (including Bert Blyleven) about Paul Molitor's awful decision, I must say that when you are sitting on your couch you do not know the facts of what is happening in between the lines. Sometimes it is best not to have a opinion until the facts are in. And the funny thing about facts, they are seldom all the way in. In other words, I suggest to certain TD members: R-E-L-A-X (to quote Aaron Rodgers).

 

I told my boss I was feeling pretty tired and to send me home at noon. I was told to stfu and get back to work.

[HitInAPinch]

I posted my rant this morning at the end of yesterday's Game Day threat.  I've posted before about the early season lack of hitting, defense and the spate of injuries and a correlation to Spring Training.  I still feel the same way:  none of these things should be an issue.        

[nytwinsfan]

 

I told my boss I was feeling pretty tired and to send me home at noon. I was told to stfu and get back to work.

Seriously? And if only Tori Hunter had been in the dugout, he would have told Hughes the same thing your boss told you, right? Get a grip Tom Hanson.

[tobi0040]

I think he should go to the pen. I would understand shutting him down and giving that a shot

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, I am not sure what a complete "shut down" would accomplish.  Hughes has been effectively "shut down" for 4+ months each of the last two offseasons.

 

As long as he can still pitch, but he's just getting less velocity and getting fatigued faster, it's probably best for him to try learning how to pitch through it.  Perhaps out of the pen.

[alarp33]

 

 

As long as he can still pitch, but he's just getting less velocity and getting fatigued faster, it's probably best for him to try learning how to pitch through it.  Perhaps out of the pen.

 

 

If he's going to pitch through it, it kind of has to be in the bullpen.  I mean without those rockets being hit at people, or some great defensive plays, where does his 75 pitches take him? Maybe into the 5th?  5, 2, 4 the number of innings he's given them the previous 3 starts.  

 

I don't see how letting him continue to start games helps them in the short, or long term.  And apparently the manager still has playoff aspirations, yet is starting someone who can't exceed 75 pitchers (and frankly hasn't been any bit effective with those 75 before last night)

[mikelink45]

Maybe this should be what do we do with all of these pitchers.  Tonkin and May looked as bad as Berrios - should they be sent out too?  We are stinking all over.  Help!  I have no suggestions, just angst.

[SirLoin]

Doesn't this almost mirror Glen Perkins' situation?  Shoulder weakness, drop in velocity....

[ThejacKmp]

 

12 MM a year to be a bullpen guy?  Another great deal for our GM for Life

 

I mean, the article above literally laid out why the deal made sense at the time. Just because something doesn't work out doesn't make it a bad decision.

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

I heard that Hughes told the coaches he was getting a little fatigued and that they should keep an eye on him. Getting fatigued after 6 innings and 70 pitches is worrisome no matter how you slice it. Maybe just one night, maybe not. He also has a history of not wanting to stay in games, which would be another concern.

 

What is this history? I have no concept of what you're talking about.

 

I think it's actually pretty admirable that he didn't do the typical tough guy act and stay in a game as he became ineffective. He communicated his health with the team and that may help him in the long run. We've seen too many guys pitch badly through pain and hurt the team. Phil Hughes was a class act not to pitch the extra 1/3 of an inning in 2014 and he's a class act to put the team ahead of himself here.

[Riverbrian]

Not many MLB pitchers pitch in the strike zone. They make their living getting batters to swing at pitches out of the zone. 

 

Phil Hughes is one of a handful of pitchers that tries to get every single out staying in the zone. 

 

Batters know this by now. 

 

Tack on declining velocity and a comfortable at-bat becomes more comfortable. 

 

Phil will have to learn to work out of the zone effectively. Change Eye Level... East and West... Make the batter move his feet a little.

 

If he doesn't... We will probably complain about him for awhile.  

 

 

 

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

I think he should go to the pen. I would understand shutting him down and giving that a shot

 

Opens up opportunities for some young starters too. And if it works out long term, that gives you another rotation spot for the Gonsalves/Jorge/Stewart/Jay/Thorpe generation that should be sniffing the majors by the middle of next year.

 

Yeah $12 million is a lot to spend on a bullpen arm but if he can be an okay setup guy we can live with that - especially with cheap young pitching. That control should be nice out of the pen in tight mid-inning situations.

 

Rotation end of next year:

 

Santana

Berrios

Duffey

Gibson?

Meyer?

Gonsalves/Jorge/Stewart/Jay/Thorpe?

 

I can live with that. Hughes going to the pen due to injury might turn out a good thing in the long run.

[Loosey]

Here's a question to chew on:  Let's say the Twins do decide that he is no longer a viable starting pitcher and has to be moved to the pen due to him not being able to exceed 60+ pitches.  That's essentially a $12M a year middle reliever they will have to deal with.  Will this move effect the front office's thinking when/if it comes time to trade Nolasco?  If the Twins get an offer for Nolasco but have to eat a bunch of his salary for the deal to go through will the Twins balk at it because they are already basically eating Hughes' salary as well?  That is concerning to me.

 

 

[Parker Hageman]

This is the most pronounced and clear-cut example of something that's been noticeable for some time: for whatever reason, the right-hander's arm strength is deteriorating. He admitted to shoulder fatigue after Tuesday's game, and this isn't a particularly new development. It's a situation that needs to be monitored and handled very carefully, given how deeply the Twins have invested in him.

 

 

 

My guess is that the shoulder fatigue has to do with his back injury from a year ago. Watching footage from 2014 vs 2015/2016, you see a lot less efforted rotation from Hughes now as opposed to when he was able to hump up to 94. If his back still isn't 100% or if he is avoiding exerting too much from the core, the shoulder is going to take the brunt of it.  

 

 

 

[alarp33]

 

The favorable terms of Hughes' deal made it palatable to even those who felt he was very unlikely to repeat his sterling results from that first season with the Twins. His average annual salary in the reconfigured contract was less than $12 million, which is roughly the going rate for an average mid-rotation starter in free agency. With his pinpoint command and his history of missing bats at a reasonable clip, he seemed like almost a sure bet to at least maintain at that level, even if his historically incredible strikeout-to-walk ratio was bound to normalize a bit.


 

 

His contract extension was $42 million and 3 years.  It's a bit disingenuous to call it under $12 million / year.  The 1st contract was good.  The extension was potentially the worst decision (of many) that Terry Ryan has made in 5 years

[ThejacKmp]

 

His contract extension was $42 million and 3 years.  It's a bit disingenuous to call it under $12 million / year.  The 1st contract was good.  The extension was potentially the worst decision (of many) that Terry Ryan has made in 5 years

 

I dunno. He got paid mid-rotation money when he was coming off a season where he was a legitimate ace. He was young and was a good prospect finally finding his legs and pitching like scouts long though he could. If he was a #1/#2 starter for the contract it was a great deal but he only had to be a #3/#4 starter for it to make sense. I remember the reaction from press and on TD being, "Huh, that's a pretty fair deal for both sides. I hope it works out."

 

Hindsight is 20-20 and it's easy to call this a terrible decision now but I think that's misguided. Sometimes a move doesn't work out and it's tempting to reflexively call it bad but we need to be wise enough to look back at the context in which it was made.

[alarp33]

 

I dunno. He got paid mid-rotation money when he was coming off a season where he was a legitimate ace. He was young and was a good prospect finally finding his legs and pitching like scouts long though he could. 

 

He had just finished his 8th Major League season, and 1st above avg one as a starter. And had TWO years left on his deal. 

 

There's nothing hindsight about it, the context was clear at the time, and now.  They paid for the 2014 season (EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS TWO YEARS LEFT), while ignoring 2007-2013

[dgwills]

I agree that they should shut him down. Might as well have him healthy next year. This is really the product of a much bigger problem though. The Twins seem to like to sign contracts with players after career years. Mauer, Suzuki, Hughes, and Dozier come to mind. That's just bad business. Hell, I avoid taking players in fantasy baseball after they have a career year. The Twins are not a team that can afford to overpay for players.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

What is this history? I have no concept of what you're talking about.

 

I think it's actually pretty admirable that he didn't do the typical tough guy act and stay in a game as he became ineffective. He communicated his health with the team and that may help him in the long run. We've seen too many guys pitch badly through pain and hurt the team. Phil Hughes was a class act not to pitch the extra 1/3 of an inning in 2014 and he's a class act to put the team ahead of himself here.

Good catching me on that. Maybe he doesn't have a documented history but that is certainly my impression of him from following ballgames since he got here. I want pitchers who want to take the ball, or take the post, as Ryan likes to say in interviews.

 

I think the OP made a pretty strong case that this is a trend with Hughes and that it's on the Twins to determine how he can help us win games.

 

Class Act for turning down the bonus. If sacrificing that 1/3 inning was part of the consideration for the Twins offering him that big extension, I'd say he came out ahead.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I remember endorsing the Hughes extension when it happened, but I'll admit, even without hindsight and in the context of his 2014 season, I was probably wrong.

 

Hughes was on an incredible contract, 2/16 remaining for ages 29-30.  We already had Nolasco and Ervin Santana signed for more money and longer terms.  Even if you liked Hughes' recent performance and age more than Nolasco and Santana, it was probably foolish to forego the massive benefits of that below market contract and extend Hughes above and beyond the other pitchers.  It kinda limited out options.

 

Of course, it's not a franchise-sinking amount of money, as long as we don't let it.  There's no reason it can't go to the pen, or fall behind a younger pitcher on the rotation depth chart, or eventually even be dumped like we considered with Nolasco recently.  I'm not sure the Twins will do that, of course, and I don't know if it's the salary driving that, or their veteran preference driving that and the salary, but that's probably a separate problem than the Hughes extension on its own.

[ThejacKmp]

 

He had just finished his 8th Major League season, and 1st above avg one as a starter. And had TWO years left on his deal. 

 

There's nothing hindsight about it, the context was clear at the time, and now.  They paid for the 2014 season (EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS TWO YEARS LEFT), while ignoring 2007-2013

 

Who cares if he was in the bigs for 8 years or 3? He was 28, an age when baseball players frequently hit their prime. If there’s ever a good time to sign a pitcher to a five year deal, that’s it.

 

You don't make an awful point about the larger picture but you're losing the context because you're all hindsight-focused. Phil Hughes was an elite prospect who had trouble putting it all together (much like Jake Arrieta). He had flashes of dominance as a starter and reliever but finally put it together. It wasn’t smoke and mirrors either – his FIP was lower at 2.65 and he’d made fundamental changes to how he pitched that spoke to a pitcher on the rise.

 

You can make a good argument that they should have just played out the two years on his deal but sometimes you have to take a gamble. The reward (a potential ace or very good #2 pitcher for #4 starter money) was worth the risk. It’s easy to forget because we’re looking at the worst-case scenario of any free agent signing (injuries which are bad enough to make a guy suck but not so bad that he just doesn’t pitch) but the floor for Phil Hughes seemed pretty good. He seemed like at worst a #4 pitcher, just what you’d be paying him. And by all reports he’s a good character guy, someone your young pitchers could learn from. He also had extra value because he has experience pitching out of the pen in a high leverage role if you need to shift him later in the contract.

 

But the biggest reason it wasn’t a bad deal was that if you're the Twins, chances to lock down a potential ace for an extra two years don't come around every day. They don't sign the Lesters and Hamels of this world. The Twins found a prospect who was putting it together and made a reasonable double down with low risk and high reward. Just because it didn’t work out (no one could predict that he would lose velocity at age 29 and start to not even seem like a starter) doesn’t make it a bad decision.

 

It’s easy to say in hindsight that the extension was terrible but we need to remember the context it was signed it. It was a reasonable gamble and the contract isn’t going to cripple the Twins going forward. It sucks it hasn’t worked out but Hughes was not a terrible decision.

[Mike Sixel]

I endorsed the move, but I'm not sure why I did.......Normally I'd want them to wait until there was 1 year left, but like the post above states, there were reasons to like the deal.

 

As for now?

 

He either needs to be shut down, and see a doctor, or needs to move to the bullpen. You can't have a SP that has shoulder fatigue after 70 pitches. It's not good for the team, and more importantly, not good for him as a person.