Looking at his splits for 2015 I find:

• He likes Target Field, hitting .318 with an OPS of 1.065, compared to .224 and .775

• He was best in July, with his stats cooling in August and September.

• Batting third, he only hit .194 in 34 PA. Small sample size.

• Sano batted .308 with a 1.097 OPS with two outs, much better than with no outs or one out (125 PA).

• With 2 outs and RISP, he hit .300 with a 1.042 OPS.

• His best OPS (over 1.000) was in the first, third, seventh and ninth innings. 

• Strangely, his worst batting average was when facing a starting pitcher for the third time in a game (.163 with an OPS of .745) Much better BA and OPS on his first and second at bats against a starting pitcher. This goes contrary to most hitters, I believe.

Fascinating.

 

He's awesome, but I think he's more like top 12 hitter, than top 3 hitter this year. I think most of the projections here are toward the high end of what could be expected. 

 

28 home runs, .275 batting average, 30 doubles, 2 stolen bases (you know he'll get some), lots of "that ball gets by Sano, and is going to the wall" type descriptions that we will mostly try to ignore.

 

 I tend to agree with you Mike.  I think once he starts abusing baseballs he isn't gonna see anything good to hit.  Pitchers\teams are gonna game plan big time around him so I think he will have a hard time topping 30 homers this year.  

 

He has surprised me with how mature he is as a batter so maybe he goes over thirty but I doubt it.  I would be impressed if he does at least this year.  I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Sano will walk a whole bunch this season.   .310/.463/.571 this spring, which is probably his ceiling (other than SLG) for 2016.  

 

.300/.400/.607(*) with 50(*) HRs  and AL MVP.

 

(and Reusse eating crow)

 

(*) Twins' individual season records, both held by Killebrew now (at -1 of those numbers)

Edited March 31, 201610 yr by Thrylos

 

 

 I tend to agree with you Mike.  I think once he starts abusing baseballs he isn't gonna see anything good to hit.  Pitchers\teams are gonna game plan big time around him so I think he will have a hard time topping 30 homers this year. 

 

Barry Bonds would beg to disagree with the above statement.

 

Key question for me: Will he be better or worse the Delmon Young in the outfield?

 

I don't care.

Will only depend on Sano staying healthy, striking out about 30% less and having other teams align their defenses as if there were no tendencies on him yet. 

Barry Bonds would beg to disagree with the above statement.

Bonds is the best hitter ever maybe......Sano is not Bonds.

 

Good times, guys.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUrHS_g4k6c

Adding this:

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25282791/look-miguel-sano-loses-monster-homer-to-tropicana-field-catwalk

 

Barry Bonds would beg to disagree with the above statement.

 

Sure but did Bonds hit 30 his first couple of years?  Sano has things to learn yet. He might make 30 we'll see.  I certainly hope he does but it won't be as easy as some think it will.  I think with anyone on base or a close game they will choose to pitch to someone else or try and entice him to swing at junk.  He might start fast but once he proves himself I am betting there will be a big slow down in homers.

What does everything think Sano's true talent BABIP will be? Last year he had a .396 BABIP, which I don't think is sustainable. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he regularly is in the .320-.340 range.

With the exit speed he generates and his approach, I don't see any reason why he can't be .350+ as we've seen from the likes of Votto, Harper, Goldschmidt, Freeman, Cabrera and Trout over the last 3 years.

RE: Full counts...

 

 

Nobody threw him strikes. Nobody threw him fastballs. It is an amazing amount of respect for the big guy/disrespect for Trevor Plouffe.

 

Bonds is the best hitter ever maybe......Sano is not Bonds.

Beat me to it. Bonds can't be compared to another baseball player because he was the closest thing to an inhuman freak I've ever seen play the game.

 

RE: Full counts...

 

Sano.png

 

Nobody threw him strikes. Nobody threw him fastballs. It is an amazing amount of respect for the big guy/disrespect for Trevor Plouffe.

That O-Swing% is sexy.

Sit back and enjoy the show. Sano will be great...

 

Beat me to it. Bonds can't be compared to another baseball player because he was the closest thing to an inhuman freak I've ever seen play the game.

One of the things that made him an inhuman freak was stuff that was not derived from a human. (Allegedly.)

Sano will become a great, great Twin's star. But most likely not this year. He will continue to be pitched around, almost never seeing a fastball. Instead he will be dealing with junk being thrown at him from every direction. He will walk a lot and strike out a lot but importantly, the slow junk being pitched to him will eventually turn him into a hitting machine. The last third of this season and next year, AL, lookout!

I think we need to chill on Bonds. Had every top 30 or 40 player taken steroids, it is hard to tell how good they would have been. Think of Babe Ruth or Ted Williams on steroids.

 

Objectively, only 70 of Bonds career 162 WAR were before the age of 31. Apply a normal aging curve and you have a 100-110 career WAR player who ends up 20-30. About to be passed by guys like Pujuls.

Pujols was an awesome player.  One of my favorites.

The most neglected issue with Sano in RF is that he will get beaten up. He's 270 lbs and fast, a recipe for disaster. I saw him in spring training and he did not look in shape...at all. As much as I hate to say it, we should not be surprised when we see him injured, maybe soon. It's the stupidest decision on the part of the Twins, since they let Mauer dictate that he stay as a catcher after he started racking up injuries. We continued to see our best hitter get the crap beaten out of him and now, while still relatively young, he's a shell of what he was. That's on the Twins, Sano could be, too. I sure hope I'm wrong.