Article: Ricky Nolasco Waiting To Blow Up?

[Ted Schwerzler]

We may not have seen the worst of Ricky Nolasco yet.

 

Prior to the 2014 MLB season, the Minnesota Twins and Terry Ryan realized they had a deficiency. Coming off of yet another 9-loss season, the team's starting pitching was nowhere close to what it needed to be to compete. The answer was to scour the free agent market, and bring in outside help. Ryan landed two fresh arms that offseason, one has worked out, and the other one hasn't.In terms of performance, the Twins put themselves in a less than advantageous situation from the get go when they signed Nolasco. He was largely a middle-of-the-road pitcher in the National League. Despite being considered an ace at times for some relatively poor Marlins teams, he'd pitched to the tune of a sub 4.00 ERA just twice in his first eight seasons (2008, 2013). Nolasco's FIP generally hovered somewhere in the mid 3's, and arguably his greatest asset was in being known as an innings eater.

 

Not a big strikeout guy, owning just a 7.4 K/9 mark, Nolasco was not likely to overpower hitters in the tougher American League. Surrendering just south of 10 hits (9.5/H9) per game, his pitch-to-contact style is one with which Twins fans come to grow tired. Despite the many warning signs, it was Nolasco (and not the more realistic Phil Hughes) who commanded a $12.25m average annual value from the Twins over the next four years.

 

Entering their first season with the Twins, Hughes and Nolasco were the two pitchers brought in to change the rotation. While Hughes had been burned by homers, he was two years Nolasco's junior, and had a higher ceiling. As expected by some, Hughes has succeeded (arguably much better than assumed) and Nolasco has struggled.

 

Now with one ugly (5.38 ERA in 27 starts during 2014) season under his belt, and one injury-riddled one (just 37.1 IP in 2015), Nolasco finds himself at a crossroads. In his Twins career, he's compiled a 5.64 ERA, 4.15 FIP, while striking out just 6.9 per nine, and offering little to no reliability. Considering the output, the Californian should be owed nothing, except he is...another $24m over the next two years.

 

That brings us to where we are now. Without a guaranteed rotation spot, Nolasco enters 2016 on the outside looking in. A less than ideal situation for a starter, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN asked Nolasco's agent (Matt Sosnick) about the situation and potentially working out of relief. Here's that response:

 

Quote

Ricky has been an effective starter in the big leagues for ten seasons. Last year was an injury filled season, and he certainly deserves to show the Twins what he looks like without trying to pitch through the pain. The Twins evaluate talent very well, and their minor league system is a testament to the time and effort they put into that part of the game. They paid Ricky almost 50M dollars two years ago based on the totality of his work. I won't believe he is not in the rotation until I see it.

 

If the club believers he is better suited for a relief role, Ricky has made it clear to me that he would directly address his feeling of disappointment to his manager and the GM, and that he would ask the team about his other options.

There's little room to mince words in the statements above. Nolasco is clearly under the impression he's one of the Twins best five starting pitchers, and opposition to that is going to be an issue. This leads us to the reality that things could get worse.

 

With Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana and Kyle Gibson already rotation locks, there are just two spots left in the starting five. Paul Molitor has all but said Tyler Duffey will get one of them, and Tommy Milone has done nothing to lose his role. Nolasco in relief seems like the most plausible option. But then again, it really doesn't.

 

A handful of different scenarios have been thrown around as to how to handle Nolasco. In seeing the way in which Mike Pelfrey took a bullpen demotion a season ago, expecting it to go better with Nolasco is probably foolish. The reality is that putting Nolasco into the pen is a square peg going into a round hole; it's only a way for the Twins to utilize some of their already sunk cost in his contract. Trading Nolasco also would seem an uphill battle. The return would no doubt be pennies on the dollar, and a guy who's shown very little ability over the past two seasons doesn't have much value.

 

This leads us to my preferred solution. Nolasco wants to start, and there's little reason to believe he walks away from his hefty paycheck. Minnesota can DFA Ricky, removing him from the 40-man roster as he passes through waivers unclaimed. If he accepts it, that would allow him to start at Triple-A Rochester. In this scenario, he continues to start, staying stretched out, and can be a fallback option if and when injuries occur at the big league level.

 

However, no doubt the move would be met with some angst from the Nolasco camp, and he could definitely refuse the assignment (due to having five years of service time). If he's dead set on starting though, and wants to play hardball with Minnesota, Ryan has some options at his disposal.

 

At the end of the day, Minnesota has a glut of high-ceiling relievers nearly ready for the big league level. Forcing Nolasco to the pen simply to get use out of him, over the roster inclusion of a player such as Alex Meyer, Nick Burdi, J.R. Graham, or some other MLB ready pen commodity, would be less than ideal. The hope would be that Ricky Nolasco can turn his performance around, but this situation, at least from a personnel standpoint, is likely going to get worse before it gets better.

 

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[bustedstuff88]

Ricky is on the verge of becoming our clubhouse cancer with that delusional attitude and expectation of entitlement.

 

Cut bait now. I don't want to see his attitude infecting our up and coming talent on the farm either.

[d-mac]

Oh boy.

[hybridbear]

What would happen if the Twins decide to DFA him & he is claimed? What would happen if they DFA him & he refuses to go to AAA?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

At the end of the day, Minnesota has a glut of high-ceiling relievers nearly ready for the big league level. Forcing Nolasco to the pen simply to get use out of him, over the roster inclusion of a player such as Alex Meyer, Nick Burdi, J.R. Graham, or some other MLB ready pen commodity would be less than ideal. The hope would be that Ricky Nolasco can turn his performance around, but this situation, at least from a personnel standpoint, is likely going to get worse before it gets better.

It's my opinion Nolasco isn't competing against any of those guys anyway.

 

Are the Twins really going to put Alex Meyer in a mop-up role? Burdi? Those guys will slot into the sixth or seventh inning roles. Their talent demands it.

 

Whereas it makes all the sense in the world to slot either Nolasco or Milone into a mop-up role. It keeps them somewhat stretched out to spot start or take the fifth rotation spot the moment a guy falters or gets injured.

[Thrylos]

 

(A)What would happen if the Twins decide to DFA him & he is claimed? (B)What would happen if they DFA him & he refuses to go to AAA?

 

a.  The new team would have to fulfill his current contract

b. It is his right as a 5+ year MLB veteran.  At that point the Twins have the choice of either keeping him on their 25 man roster or releasing him (and thus have him become a free agent.)  In both choices the Twins will have to fulfill his current contract (ie. have to pay him.) 

[Thrylos]

 

 In his Twins career, he's compiled a 5.64 ERA, 4.15 FIP, while striking out just 6.9 per nine, and offering little to no reliability. 

 

Any idea how this compares with some of the rest Twins' starting pitchers?  (And I refuse to look at ERA)

 

Look:

Milone in his Twins' career: 4.23 FIP, 6.3 K/9

 

According to your argument, Milone should be even less reliable than Nolasco...

 

Have you checked Nolasco's BABIP in his Twins' career?

 

I cannot believe that the same people who are excusing Perkins for falling apart because of injuries last season are crucifying Nolasco for the same reason...   Wonder whether that had happened if Nolasco were the former first round pick from MN and Perkins were the free agent signing from CA...

Edited March 10, 2016 by Thrylos

[EddieMatthews]

The Twins will start Nolasco and try to establish some trade value.  Ricky must believe that he has several good years left, and would want to maximize his earnings potential before he retires.  I agree with other posters that he could become a clubhouse cancer, but that would not be a label that Ricky wants, as it would reduce the willingness of another team to take him on.  

 

In all likelihood, the Twins will eat a lot of that $24 million contract, and another team might need a fifth starter if they think he could produce and would cost them a few million for the remaining two years.

 

Not many good options.

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

I cannot believe that the same people who are excusing Perkins for falling apart because of injuries last season are crucifying Nolasco for the same reason...   Wonder if that had happened in Nolasco was the former first round pick from MN and Perkins was the free agent signing from CA...

 

 

You can't believe that a guy who was already unlikely to succeed in the AL, is getting torched for pitching bad even when healthy? I guess I haven't heard much angst about Perkins being injured, but when healthy last season, he was the best closer in the AL...so...not really apples to apples.

[mazeville]

The optimal solution, frankly, would be a strong spring. Then dangle Nolasco in front of the Dodgers or Angels and agree to pay some of the salary.

 

I'm not saying they would want Nolasco. But I'm still holding out hope the Twins can trade him, even for a bag of balls and tickets to a Justin Bieber concert.

[Thrylos]

 

 

You can't believe that a guy who was already unlikely to succeed in the AL, is getting torched for pitching bad even when healthy? I guess I haven't heard much angst about Perkins being injured, but when healthy last season, he was the best closer in the AL...so...not really apples to apples.

 

 

See what I mean?  There is bias

 

Perkins was by far not the best closer in the AL even when healthy (how do you measure that?)  

For what is worth in the first half Perkins ranked among AL relievers:

 

3rd BB/9, 4th ERA, 6th WAR, 7th in WHIP, 11th FIP, 20th in SIERA, 23rd xFIP, 38th K/9

 

Not best by any means.

 

And Nolasco was not healthy last season by any means.  Plus, I'd love to see how you predict that unlikely to succeed in the AL bit.   Better FIP and K/9 than Milone with the Twins and close to those of E. Santana and Gibson with the Twins.  How about their possibilities to succeed in the AL?

Edited March 10, 2016 by Thrylos

[ThejacKmp]

 

Ricky is on the verge of becoming our clubhouse cancer with that delusional attitude and expectation of entitlement.

 

Cut bait now. I don't want to see his attitude infecting our up and coming talent on the farm either.

 

This doesn't seem like the dire situation everyone is saying. Ricky's agent answered a question and said he wanted to start. There's no indication that guys in the clubhouse are upset or that Ricky is sulking or anything. He's out competing for a job and this seems like one of those bridges one crosses when one gets to it.

[laloesch]

 

Ricky is on the verge of becoming our clubhouse cancer with that delusional attitude and expectation of entitlement.

 

Cut bait now. I don't want to see his attitude infecting our up and coming talent on the farm either.

 

Let him "BLOW UP".  If he has any brains at all he's stashed away a significant sum of moneysetting up subsequent NOLASCO generations for life.  However, If he has any inkling of resurrecting a pathetic career he had better be working his tail off and on good behavior or he'll never pitch again at what he's earning with Minnesota.

 

[Dantes929]

 

See what I mean?  There is bias

 

Perkins was by far not the best closer in the AL even when healthy (how do you measure that?)  

For what is worth in the first half Perkins ranked among AL relievers:

 

3rd BB/9, 4th ERA, 6th WAR, 7th in WHIP, 11th FIP, 20th in SIERA, 23rd xFIP, 38th K/9

 

Not best by any means.

 

And Nolasco was not healthy last season by any means.  Plus, I'd love to see how you predict that unlikely to succeed in the AL bit.   Better FIP and K/9 than Milone with the Twins and close to those of E. Santana and Gibson with the Twins.  How about their possibilities to succeed in the AL?

Perkins had a very good 1st half  whether or not you measure it by saves or any of your other stats.    He had a very bad second half and I for one did not let him off the hook for it, injuries or no.   I think his poor pitching in the 2nd half was the number one reason we didn't make the playoffs and the number one reason our bullpen is so poorly regarded this year.     

I do agree with the idea that Nolasco shouldn't be held responsible for comments his agents make but disagree with the comparison to Perkins.   Perkins was lit up pretty severely when he tried to get more money back in the day ironically at the same time everyone was defending Mauer's right to make as much as the market allowed.  .   What makes them different now it that Perkins has had a fair amount of success for the Twins for long stretches and Nolasco has been very bad his entire time here.   I have never advocated giving up on guys like this but the idea that he has somehow earned a spot in the rotation is absurd..    

[Vanimal46]

 

I cannot believe that the same people who are excusing Perkins for falling apart because of injuries last season are crucifying Nolasco for the same reason...   Wonder whether that had happened if Nolasco were the former first round pick from MN and Perkins were the free agent signing from CA...

The perceptions of these two players from a fan's point of view couldn't be further apart. Perkins has always embraced the state, fans, and opportunity to play for this team. He also gives back to the community and an overall good person. 

Nolasco, OTOH, doesn't seem like he's ever embraced being a Minnesota Twin. Even when he started here he made the mistake of tweeting that he'd rather be with the Dodgers  hasn't done anything on the field to justify the contract, and most everything in the news from him is a complaint about something. 

If the roles were reversed, the fans wouldn't like Perkins either, and Nolasco would be loved. Why would we cheer for Nolasco when it's clear he doesn't want to be here?

[Dantes929]

 

 

 

And Nolasco was not healthy last season by any means.  Plus, I'd love to see how you predict that unlikely to succeed in the AL bit.   Better FIP and K/9 than Milone with the Twins and close to those of E. Santana and Gibson with the Twins.  How about their possibilities to succeed in the AL?

So you have total disdain  for ERA as a stat but think FIP and K/9 are proper measures of pitching?    How about ERA+ or WHIP which are decidedly in favor of Milone while with the Twins?   After a 100 starts I will accept run prevention as the deciding stat and Milone has done that better than Nolasco in his career, in his career in the AL, and in his career with the Twins.    Do you really think the AL is the same as the NL when comparing stats when on average Noalsco faced the pitcher more than twice a game?     There have been studies that show they are not the same.     IMO, Milone has earned a spot in the rotation.   Not only has Ricky not earned anything, he should feel indebted to the Twins and willing to do anything he can to make up for it.     That is what Perkins did and why he went from goat to favored player.   

[Squirrel]

The perceptions of these two players from a fan's point of view couldn't be further apart. Perkins has always embraced the state, fans, and opportunity to play for this team. He also gives back to the community and an overall good person. 

Nolasco, OTOH, doesn't seem like he's ever embraced being a Minnesota Twin. Even when he started here he made the mistake of tweeting that he'd rather be with the Dodgers  hasn't done anything on the field to justify the contract, and most everything in the news from him is a complaint about something. 

If the roles were reversed, the fans wouldn't like Perkins either, and Nolasco would be loved. Why would we cheer for Nolasco when it's clear he doesn't want to be here?

You know, I think that tweet of Nolasco's was waaaaaaaaay overblown, and still is, what, a year and half later. A fan of his said wishe you were here, why wouldn't he say 'So do I.' I would have, too, since the Twins did nothing and the Dodgers were in the playoffs that year. Big deal. And everyone is still cursing him for it. I should have used this for GET OVER IT Day! While this latest bit isn't endearing in the least, maybe have some fan support behind him could help boost his performance instead of wanting nothing to do where he's at. Yeah, he's a professional, act like it, but I think fan reaction with this has made it impossible.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I wouldn't like seeing Nolasco in the rotation, but I totally get TR playing it out. If I were TR I wouldn't care about Ricky's attitude. I'm sure he deals with lots of players who have a concept of their performance and value that differs from his. If Ricky becomes Icky, it's going to hurt Ricky the most by far.

 

Let it play out.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Let him "BLOW UP".  If he has any brains at all he's stashed away a significant sum of moneysetting up subsequent NOLASCO generations for life.  However, If he has any inkling of resurrecting a pathetic career he had better be working his tail off and on good behavior or he'll never pitch again at what he's earning with Minnesota.

 

[Vanimal46]

 

You know, I think that tweet of Nolasco's was waaaaaaaaay overblown, and still is, what, a year and half later. A fan of his said wishe you were here, why wouldn't he say 'So do I.' I would have, too, since the Twins did nothing and the Dodgers were in the playoffs that year. Big deal. And everyone is still cursing him for it. I should have used this for GET OVER IT Day! While this latest bit isn't endearing in the least, maybe have some fan support behind him could help boost his performance instead of wanting nothing to do where he's at. Yeah, he's a professional, act like it, but I think fan reaction with this has made it impossible.

I agree the tweet is overblown. He was immature to tweet back "So do I!!!!!!!!!!!!!" in response to the Dodgers fan, and us fans are immature for reading into a tweet in the first place. 

[Thrylos]

 

So you have total disdain  for ERA as a stat but think FIP and K/9 are proper measures of pitching?    How about ERA+ or WHIP which are decidedly in favor of Milone while with the Twins?  

 

He chose those stats, along with ERA.  Not me.

 

ERA depends on others and is objective and practically worthless. RA is better than ERA but still depends on others.

 

ERA+ is slightly better, but still is ERA based.  WHIP is fine as long as it is normalized to a league average BABIP.  Nolasco had a Twins' BABIP about .100 higher than Milone.   Composite measurements like SIERA are probably the best to compare potential for a pitcher.

 

But he used ERA, K/9 and FIP.  Thus the argument.

[Thrylos]

 

Perkins had a very good 1st half  whether or not you measure it by saves or any of your other stats. 

 

The statement I was discussing was "Perkins was the best closer in the AL when healthy".

 

From the best to very good is ways apart.  I would agree that he was very good when healthy.

But you know, Nolasco was not healthy too, and if you count Nolasco accountable for his non-healthy appearances, you should count Perkins accountable for his.  That's the point.  Otherwise you show bias

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 

  I have never advocated giving up on guys like this but the idea that he has somehow earned a spot in the rotation is absurd..    

 

100% agree.  But Milone and Duffey have not earned anything as well...

 

[Thrylos]

 

The perceptions of these two players from a fan's point of view couldn't be further apart. Perkins has always embraced the state, fans, and opportunity to play for this team. He also gives back to the community and an overall good person.

 

Always is long time and memories are short.  Mr Perkins had filed a grievance with the Union against the Twins (a lawsuit equivalent), which in my book is a tad more severe thing to do than saying you might ask to be traded if you don't start...

 

Whether he is an overall good or bad person I have no means or wants to judge and it is totally irrelevant in the conversation. 

Edited March 11, 2016 by Thrylos

[Rosterman]

If Nolasco is worthy of a rotation role, he gets it. He might also spark some interest in a team short a starter (assuming he puts up the right spring training numbers) and a team might trade something for him, if the Twins eat salary.

 

A team would NOT claim Noalsco if he has a bad spring. But the Twins would still be on the hook for his entire salary minus a percentage of the major league minimum for the next two seasons. A great tryout bargain for any low-level team in need of a possible stopgap.

 

If he does start in the bullpen, he could slip into a rotation role if Duffey struggles or someone goes down for an injury (think Pelfrey last season) and since it seems doubtful that the Twins WILL add Berrios to the 40-man any sooner than necessary....

 

Nolasco wants to start? Good. It is his ball to throw and show he deserves to start. He gets paid, nor what. But if he wants to continue playing ball past next season, he will have to produce. And if he produces he becomes a valuable trading chip in the least and a real contributor to the team at best, forcing the Twins to make a decision on the others in the rotation (Milone and his no options, Santana and Hughes and their salaries, and Gibson and his controlled contract). Any member of the Twins rotation could have trade value IF they produce, which is the name of the game.

 

If a pitcher doesn't produce, that's the tough decision...since it is all about money (and a lot of money) then.

[Reider]

I believe I have posted this in the past, but based on my observations of his twitter posts ever since he signed with the Twins, I always got the feeling that Nolasco's heart really isn't in Minnesota. I don't think he really wanted to come to Minnesota, he just signed because of the money the Twins offered him.

 

You can refute that all you want (e.g. say that many players sign the biggest contracts they are offered), but he's the only Twins player that I've gotten that vibe from. This isn't new, I've felt this way for the last couple of years. I just never got the feeling that he's ever really been happy in Minnesota. So this news really doesn't surprise me at all.

Edited March 11, 2016 by Reider

[Dantes929]

 

He chose those stats, along with ERA.  Not me.

 

ERA depends on others and is objective and practically worthless. RA is better than ERA but still depends on others.

 

ERA+ is slightly better, but still is ERA based.  WHIP is fine as long as it is normalized to a league average BABIP.  Nolasco had a Twins' BABIP about .100 higher than Milone.   Composite measurements like SIERA are probably the best to compare potential for a pitcher.

 

But he used ERA, K/9 and FIP.  Thus the argument.

I just can't wrap my mind around it.   While Nolasco was in the NL I believe there was a gap between the AL and NL in ERA likely influenced by the pitcher batting in the NL.    Even without that Milone has given up more than half a run less than Nolasco.    This gap would widen given that Milone has done it in the AL and Nolasco has done it in the NL and the maybe narrowed back to account for the park differences but still its a pretty large gap.    After over 100 starts by each I think you have to start considering that it is more than bad luck that Nolasco's run prevention  lags behind his advanced metrics and consider that it is more than good luck that Milone has done better at run prevention than his numbers would suggest.    Does Milone hold runners on better?  Does he induce more ground balls for double plays?   Maybe its more than just luck.      Nothing scientific here but I also believe Milone got squeezed by the umps on the zone more than any other pitcher last year but overcame that as well.    I would rather have Milone than Nolasco.   I am ok if Nolasco proves me wrong but if he puts up another 5 ERA while Milone goes sub 4.00 I am not going to buy that Nolasco is better but just unlucky.

[jsteve96]

 

He chose those stats, along with ERA.  Not me.

 

ERA depends on others and is objective and practically worthless. RA is better than ERA but still depends on others.

 

ERA+ is slightly better, but still is ERA based.  WHIP is fine as long as it is normalized to a league average BABIP.  Nolasco had a Twins' BABIP about .100 higher than Milone.   Composite measurements like SIERA are probably the best to compare potential for a pitcher.

 

But he used ERA, K/9 and FIP.  Thus the argument.

my opp BABIP would be about .800 too, not because they're lucky tho, BECAUSE I SUCK. thats the same deal with Ricky

[jimbo92107]

Glenn Perkins might not be the best comparison here, but there is one similarity. Perkins made a mid-career shift to the bullpen, even though he really didn't want to do it. He went from a starter that rarely broke 90mph to a closer that blew heaters by guys at 96mph, with a hot slider and a good slow curve. 

 

Ricky Nolasco isn't a control pitcher the way Perkins was, so maybe he can't pick corners as a reliever. However, he may be past the starter phase of his career, so a shift to the bullpen could be in his own best interest. I have yet to see him look good as a starter for the Twins. 

[Darius]

Thrylos grasping at straws is about as bad as Nolasco's performance on the mound.

 

Nolasco and Milone are both awful pitchers. Get real.