Article: TD Top Prospects: #8 Alex Meyer

[Parker Hageman]

When the Minnesota Twins acquired pitching prospect Alex Meyer in 2012, Twins general manager Terry Ryan made it clear what the expectations for Meyer’s role would be. “Starter, starter, starter, starter,” Ryan told reporters emphatically.

 

At that time the Twins were desperate for any semblance of starting pitching to add to their depleted farm system. On paper Meyer -- who had touched triple digits and held steady around 96-to-98 miles per hour -- was exactly the type of pitcher that the Twins needed. In his first professional season in the Nationals’ organization he had struck out 129 in 139 innings. By comparison the Twins’ organization’s strikeout leader that season was Jason Wheeler with 115 strikeouts (Wheeler, however, needed 27 more innings than Meyer to reach his total). In theory, Meyer’s addition to the system would provide the Twins with a future front-of-the-rotation pitching talent.

 

Three seasons later however his role is less crystallized then what Ryan had envisioned. Meyer’s inconsistency in his mechanics and command combined with his shoulder woes have pushed him toward the bullpen (where he thrived, mind you, holding hitters to a .254 average in relief versus .325 as a starter). Nevertheless, the uncertainty and the shift to the bullpen, as well as talent additions, have driven Meyer lower on the prospect list but make no mistake he still has the tools to be a solid contributor somewhere on the staff.Age: 26 (DOB: 1/3/90)

2015 Stats (AAA/MLB): 94.2 IP, 5.13 ERA, 103/51 K/BB

ETA: 2015

2015 Ranking: 5

 

National Top 100 Rankings

BA: NR | MLB: NR | BP: NR

 

 

What's To Like

 

The velocity, that’s for sure. Meyer was originally drafted by the Red Sox out of Greensburg High School (Ind.) in the 20th round of the 2008 draft but a reported $2 million bonus offer from Boston was not enough to convince the hard-throwing right-hander to bypass college in Kentucky. In 2011, after flashing triple-digits fastball for the Wildcats, the Nationals snagged him in the first round at 23rd overall.

 

So far, the Twins have only received a brief sampling of the heat. In his two-outing stint with the Twins last year he wound up throwing the second hardest fastball among the staff at 98. Velocity matters because dating back to 2008, when hitters are facing 98+, they hit .205 with a slugging of .288. In comparison, when pitchers are sitting 90-to-95, hitters have posted a .274 average with a .428 slugging. According to ESPN/TruMedia the Twins have hit 98 or higher on the radar gun just 23 times (13 of which belonged to Juan Morillo) and was the lowest number among all teams in that eight year span.

 

But Meyer is more than just a pretty fastball. After the 2014 season, Baseball America anointed Meyer’s breaking ball, a knuckle-curve, as the best in the International League. Like his fastball, at times Meyer has trouble commanding it but the hammer break has made it a very good complement to his fastball.

 

What's Left To Work On

 

Consistency has been Meyer’s main issue but if there is one thing Meyer has been consistent about it has been his release point dropping over the last few years. When Meyer made an appearance in the Futures Game in 2011, PitchF/X data said he was releasing the ball near 6.6 feet. However, by the time Meyer arrived with the Twins, his arm angle had lowered so much that he was releasing the ball a foot lower than before.

 

 

 

 

Download attachment: Brooksbaseball-Chart.png

Considering Meyer has had shoulder ailments in the past, it is no surprise to see this type of dip in release point. In 2013 he missed 83 days because of a strained shoulder and was shut down in August 2014 with inflammation. This last year was relatively injury free but he readily acknowledge in Rochester that he was focused on raising his release point as he struggled with his command. Opponents who faced him in 2014 and then again in 2015 noted that his fastball looked flat and lacked the same movement compared to the prior season. If he is able to correct this, Meyer could be a dangerous pitcher on the mound.

 

What's Next

 

Since the Twins’ rotation is at capacity (and still trying to find room for Jose Berrios), there could be room in the bullpen as the front office’s indifference toward free agents relievers suggests that they believe in their crop of young power arms - including Meyer.

 

Despite the struggles, with two option years remaining, the Twins can be patient with him. With a few tweaks, Meyer has the weapons to be a shutdown reliever. So while Meyer likely won’t start the season in Minnesota, he will be on a short list of pitchers who will get the call when help is needed.

 

Click here to view the article

[TRex]

Thanks for the great article, Parker. You do not project this kind of 'glass half full' philosophy very often. It is especially appreciated amongst the current tenor of TD posts. I also share your optimism on Meyer.

[Dantes929]

Anyone listening to Bert would be aware of how much he values the downward plane and intuition and logic would tell people that losing a foot in the height of the release point would make a big difference. in a lot of things.    If he lowered his release point in 2015 due to injuries and was working on raising his release point and that is the reason his control and movement left him then maybe it will all pay off this year.  I am generally a cup half full guy but that doesn't apply here.   I want him to be an all star starter or a vague memory.   I can put up with the hyperbole for another couple of years hoping for the former rather than the latter.   Mediocre relief pitching career would just be annoying.    

[Loosey]

 

Anyone listening to Bert would be aware of how much he values the downward plane and intuition and logic would tell people that losing a foot in the height of the release point would make a big difference. in a lot of things.    If he lowered his release point in 2015 due to injuries and was working on raising his release point and that is the reason his control and movement left him then maybe it will all pay off this year.  I am generally a cup half full guy but that doesn't apply here.   I want him to be an all star starter or a vague memory.   I can put up with the hyperbole for another couple of years hoping for the former rather than the latter.   Mediocre relief pitching career would just be annoying.    

I have to disagree with your sentiment.  You would only want him to be an Ace starter or nothing at all?  Relief pitchers all have to come from somewhere.  What if he becomes a Wade Davis type of 7th or 8th inning shut down guy?  The way pitching has become in baseball over the last few years stud relievers are almost as important as stud starters as starters continue to pitch fewer and fewer innings.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I have to disagree with your sentiment.  You would only want him to be an Ace starter or nothing at all?  Relief pitchers all have to come from somewhere.  What if he becomes a Wade Davis type of 7th or 8th inning shut down guy?  The way pitching has become in baseball over the last few years stud relievers are almost as important as stud starters as starters continue to pitch fewer and fewer innings.

 

Agree.  If (and it's a big if) Meyer, Burdi, and Chargois can all be meaningful bullpen arms by July/August, TR's gamble of not adding relievers will look pretty damn good.

[Seth Stohs]

A couple of reports from people I talked to while researching for the Prospect Handbook told me that he occasionally was in the upper 90s during the season, but his mechanics (which were never real good) got really, really out of whack and because of it, his release point was lower, but also his velocity some days didn't top 93. He was all over the board velocity-wise. That can be a good thing when a pitcher knows that's what he's doing. 

 

I believe in Meyer. I thought the decision to not bring him up in September was good. For him, ending the 2015 season, getting away from it, getting married, and almost starting over was exactly what he needed. The talent is clear. The ability to be very good is still there. 

 

Brad Steil told me at Twins Fest that he's going to big league camp for a starting job, but he's not willing to say he won't be a starter. He called it a bad year for Meyer and that he's not going to forget that he was one of the best pitchers in the International League in 2014. 

[Mike Sixel]

I have no idea what to think at this point. Good luck to him.

[Dr. Evil]

Agree.  If (and it's a big if) Meyer, Burdi, and Chargois can all be meaningful bullpen arms by July/August, TR's gamble of not adding relievers will look pretty damn good.

I was thinking the same thing. How cool would it be if all 3 emerged! We would have to keep a fire extinguisher in the bullpen!!

[Seth Stohs]

 

I have no idea what to think at this point. Good luck to him.

 

Right or wrong, I don't think anyone really does. Fans, writers, the organization, or even Meyer himself. I prefer to think that he'll come to spring training with regained confidence. 

[Parker Hageman]

A couple of reports from people I talked to while researching for the Prospect Handbook told me that he occasionally was in the upper 90s during the season, but his mechanics (which were never real good) got really, really out of whack and because of it, his release point was lower, but also his velocity some days didn't top 93. He was all over the board velocity-wise. That can be a good thing when a pitcher knows that's what he's doing

 

 

I can corroborate that. Spent a lot of time watching his outings and picked that up right away. (I believe Nick had some good video of his release point in spring camp that showed how low he would get at times.) I charted and wrote up his bullpen outings from last year as well: http://www.startribune.com/twinscentric-can-alex-meyer-be-a-shutdown-reliever/310133601/ 

 

 

 

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Thank you! Finally an article that doesn't bury Meyer's chances as a starter. I think he should be given very opportunity to start in 2016 in Rochester. Besides Berrios, no one there has anywhere close to the upside Meyer still has. A bad 7 or 8 strats shouldn't derail a prospect who was consensus Top-3 in the organization the previous 3 years.

 

And who cares about his age. The Twins will still control his "prime" years if and when he is called up and sticks.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Thank you! Finally an article that doesn't bury Meyer's chances as a starter. I think he should be given very opportunity to start in 2016 in Rochester. Besides Berrios, no one there has anywhere close to the upside Meyer still has. A bad 7 or 8 strats shouldn't derail a prospect who was consensus Top-3 in the organization the previous 3 years.

 

And who cares about his age. The Twins will still control his "prime" years if and when he is called up and sticks.

 

You should care about his age. As he ages, he loses velocity. "prime" years are dropping, for whatever reason.

[Dr. Evil]

I think Terry Ryan must feel optimistic that some of these young guys are ready to be pulled out of the oven and placed on a serving tray. That should make for a very exciting spring training!

[Dantes929]

 

I have to disagree with your sentiment.  You would only want him to be an Ace starter or nothing at all?  Relief pitchers all have to come from somewhere.  What if he becomes a Wade Davis type of 7th or 8th inning shut down guy?  The way pitching has become in baseball over the last few years stud relievers are almost as important as stud starters as starters continue to pitch fewer and fewer innings.

 Ok, my post was rather bland but I didn't say what you think I said.  Star starter or star reliever is fine though I think it more likely to be the former.     While there is a place and maybe even a value to mediocre relievers i don't want that from him because then every time he comes in they will talk about what he is or isn't compared to his potential and I think it will be tiresome.   Mediocre is fine if it is Duensing.  Less so from Meyer.  

 

 I don't think lack of command plays better out of the bullpen and I think inconsistency plays better as a starter.  In the minors he would have great starts and then clunkers.  Kind of either he has it or not.    I would rather see 4 great starts a month and two clunkers than the same kind of ratio out of the bullpen.    If in fact, he is great in the bullpen that would make me happy also.    

[birddog]

Amazing how one bad year relabels a prospect. His age is getting up there for a prospect, but once he finds it he can still give us many years (hopefully) of the dominance we expected when we traded Span. If he gets that confidence back--either as a starter or reliever--he will be a huge asset to the Twins. The Twins are a young team with great young prospects waiting in the minors, some of whom will have to be trade bait to get immediate help. Not all of them will pan out, but you have to be excited for the next decade of Twins baseball.

[Mike Sixel]

There are ton of reasons to be excited about the prospects* for this team

 

 

*both the people that are prospects, and the prospect of this team doing well.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I have to disagree with your sentiment.  You would only want him to be an Ace starter or nothing at all?  Relief pitchers all have to come from somewhere.  What if he becomes a Wade Davis type of 7th or 8th inning shut down guy?  The way pitching has become in baseball over the last few years stud relievers are almost as important as stud starters as starters continue to pitch fewer and fewer innings.

While I agree that Meyer can still turn into a big asset out of the bullpen, your bolded statement is... No. Just no. A shutdown starter is several magnitude more valuable than a shutdown reliever.

[Kwak]

Making the reasonable assumption that some of the bullpen aren't "lights-out, shutdown", Meyer should be promoted to the Twins to see if he can provide value.  If Meyer succeeds--great!  If, he fails--say "Next", and place next year's 27 year-old on the "suspect" list.  If there is room on the 40-man roster--keep him him, else outright him to Rochester.  There are many "arms" in the Twins system.  

[spinowner]

 

 The way pitching has become in baseball over the last few years stud relievers are almost as important as stud starters as starters continue to pitch fewer and fewer innings.

In addition to the decrease in innings pitched per start scoring has dropped significantly with the passing of the steroid era. Both of those trends make bullpens more important now than they've ever been. If those trends continue there may come a time when you are correct, but I don't think we're there yet.

Edited February 26, 2016 by spinowner

[Loosey]

 

While I agree that Meyer can still turn into a big asset out of the bullpen, your bolded statement is... No. Just no. A shutdown starter is several magnitude more valuable than a shutdown reliever.

Yeah . . . . I got a little carried a way there trying to make a point.  But my point does still stand that a shut down reliever is important and I would rather have Meyer be that than gone entirely.

[jimmer]

 

While I agree that Meyer can still turn into a big asset out of the bullpen, your bolded statement is... No. Just no. A shutdown starter is several magnitude more valuable than a shutdown reliever.

This, this, a thousand times this.

 

Thank you.

Edited February 27, 2016 by jimmer

[jimmer]

It's a bit sad that a pitcher we traded Span for three years ago has stories written about him talking about how they don't need to rush him because the 26 year old still has two options left. This is the supposed Ace we got for a very good and low priced leadoff hitter and above average defensive CF?

 

In any event, I figured he'd end up a reliever back when we got him. So it'd be nice if they threw him in there this year, while our bullpen is underwhelming anyway, so we can see how he'll do.

Edited February 27, 2016 by jimmer

[Paul Pleiss]

Is there any hope that he returns to the starting rotation, or is he entrenched as a reliever now?