Article: Out Of Options But Not Out Of The Plans

[Seth Stohs]

Heading into the offseason, the Minnesota Twins had six players who would be out of options heading into the 2016 season. Two were traded (Aaron Hicks, Chris Herrmann). One was DFAd (Josmil Pinto). There are three players who will report to spring training in two weeks needing to make the 25-man roster or potentially be lost on waivers. Will any of those three make the team, and what type of impact can they have in 2016?

 

Prior to Twins Fest, General Manager addressed the media. Among several other comments, he mentioned the three guys who will be out of options.“We do have three players that are out of options, three guys that I’m hoping will respond. Oswaldo Arcia, Michael Tonkin and Danny Santana. All three of those guys have a spot on this club if they just come in and earn it.”

 

That makes sense. Any pre-spring training Twins Opening Day roster projection typically contains all three of those players. All three were once highly-touted prospects. They were the types of prospects that most wouldn’t have thought would need all three option years and get to this point. So while they had disappointing seasons in 2015, they are all young and still have a lot of potential.

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Danny Santana

 

Santana was added to the Twins 40-man roster in November of 2012. He spent the 2013 season in New Britain. He began the 2014 season in Rochester, but in the first week of May he was called up to the big league club. He replaced Mike Pelfrey on the roster, but less than a week later shortstop Pedro Florimon was optioned. A month later, Aaron Hicks was optioned to AA and Danny Santana became the everyday center fielder. He responded by hitting .319/.353/.472 (.824) with 21 doubles, seven triples and seven home runs.

 

An unmaintainable BABIP and a questionable minor league track record (offensively and defensively) meant that he was due for some regression in 2015. However, no one could have predicted just how far Santana’s performance would drop. He hit just .215/.241/.291 (.532) in 101 games. He was basically handed the shortstop job out of spring training and was unable to recreate his 2014 success.

 

Ryan also said that Santana would be making another position change in 2016.

 

“We’re also going to move Danny Santana back into the outfield. We’ll see if we can resurrect Danny. He had a tough year this year. We like him. He’s got skills. Hopefully he will respond.”

 

There has never been any question about Santana’s talent and athleticism. He will also be only 25 years old throughout the 2016 season. While no one thinks or expects him to put up the numbers he did in 2014, he can provide value to the Twins. Santana will likely spend spring training with time at all three outfield positions. While Torii Hunter will spend a lot of time trying to help Miguel Sano transition to right field, I would expect that he will also be working a lot with Santana at all three outfield positions. I think that Santana should still bring his infield glove and get some repetitions at shortstop, second base and even third base.

 

And as Nick wrote yesterday, if Byron Buxton doesn't win the starting center field job out of spring training, Santana may be an option for that job again.

 

Oswaldo Arcia

 

Arcia was added to the Twins 40-man roster in November of 2011. He split 2012 between Ft. Myers and New Britain. In 2013, he began in Rochester but by mid-April, he was up with the Twins. In 97 games, he hit .251/.304/.430 (.734) with 17 doubles and 14 home runs. In 2014, he hit just .231/.300/.452, but he added 20 home runs, as a 23-year-old.

 

Arcia had a very disappointing 2015 season. He played in just 19 games for the Twins and then hit under .200 in Rochester. He didn’t even get a September call-up, and frankly, he didn’t deserve one.

 

He has his shortcomings. He doesn’t hit left-handed pitching. He strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough. His defense in either corner outfield spot leaves much to be desired. However, that doesn’t mean that he can't provide value for the Twins in 2016, and maybe even beyond. He can play both corner positions. He has little range, but he catches most of what he gets to. He has a good arm. He can hit for a lot of power against right-handed pitchers. He also doesn’t turn 25 until a week into May.

 

With the Twins committed to Miguel Sano in right field, it is likely that Arcia can get a game a week out there, allowing Sano to play some third base or DH. Arcia could be a powerful bat off the bench. If there is an injury in either corner, he could fill in. He would be a good platoon candidate though the Twins certainly aren’t going to put Sano into a platoon.

 

Michael Tonkin

 

After being drafted by the Twins in the 30th round of the 2008 draft, Tonkin signed and began his career as a starter. After spending half of the 2010 season starting for Beloit, he returned for a full season with the Snappers, pitching primarily out of the bullpen. That is where he returned in 2012, and that’s when things started to click. That year, between Beloit and Ft. Myers, he struck out 97 and walked just 20 in 69.1 innings. He was added to the 40-man roster following that season.

 

In 2013, he pitched between New Britain and Rochester and made his big league debut in July. Since then, he has been back and forth between Rochester and the Twins. While he has dominated International League hitters, he has yet to find any consistent success with the Twins. In 102 games for Rochester, he has a 2.65 ERA and nearly ten strikeouts per nine innings. Part of the issue is that he hasn’t spent any real consistent, extended time with the Twins. While the 6-7, 26-year-old throws pretty hard, he has been inconsistent with his slider.

 

Glen Perkins, Trevor May and Kevin Jepsen are lined up in the back end of the bullpen (or course May could theoretically still be used as a starter). Casey Fien looks to rebound. Fernando Abad is one of four left-handed relievers brought in on minor league contracts. Guys like Ryan Pressly and JR Graham will be competing for a spot in the big leagues. And, we all know the names of the hard-throwing relievers that could arrive by midseason. Tonkin isn’t guaranteed a spot, and yet, with his size and the velocity he has on his pitches, if he can gain some semblance of control of his slider, he could start the season pitching in the 5th and 6th inning and be relied upon later in games as the season moves along.

 

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Being out of options is an interesting place to be for a player. It’s clear that the organization has seen enough to keep you on the roster through three optional seasons. Yet, the player is now in a position where he has to come to spring training ready to make the club.

 

A couple of years ago, Chris Parmelee and Alex Presley were out of options and the team chose to put them through the waiver process at the end of spring training. Four years ago, Trevor Plouffe went to spring training out of options. He began the season as a bench player and less than two months later Danny Valencia was optioned and Plouffe became a starter.

 

It can be scary, but it is a career crossroads that so many experience. As Ryan said, all three of these Twins players can win a spot in spring training. I would venture to say it is likely that all three will make the Opening Day roster unless spring training goes just brutally for them. But they can’t think that anything will be handed to them because even if they are removed from the 40-man roster, 29 other teams can watch them as well.

 

So, what do you think? Will all three be on the Opening Day roster?

 

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[The Wise One]

Santana overall is a better option than Benson, Mastro and the other guy signed off the street.  They all will get a chance. Santana will stick with performance.   Tonkin has a job to lose. If he does lose it, I think it would be in May, not spring training.   Arcia?, who knows. 

[Paul Pleiss]

Ozzie is a good bench bat, and I'd rather see the Twins use Danny Santana as a super utility guy than rostering Eduardo Nunez (dreams do come true!), but I think of the three that Tonkin has the best chance to make the team, and that Sanana is a near lock. Ozzie? A coin flip at best. Which is crazy for a guy who has the flag pole power to right/right-center. I mean wow. It'll be hard to watch him succeed elsewhere when he gets claimed.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Ozzie is a good bench bat, and I'd rather see the Twins use Danny Santana as a super utility guy than rostering Eduardo Nunez (dreams do come true!), but I think of the three that Tonkin has the best chance to make the team, and that Sanana is a near lock. Ozzie? A coin flip at best. Which is crazy for a guy who has the flag pole power to right/right-center. I mean wow. It'll be hard to watch him succeed elsewhere when he gets claimed.

 

I think Santana and Nunez are both near locks.

[stringer bell]

Santana and Arcia will both make the team with anything resembling a normal spring training. I think Tonkin will be the last man in the bullpen, but that could change depending on the starters. If one is shipped to the 'pen, Tonkin could be the odd man out.

[Boom Boom]

Santana's ability to be placed out in CF by the manager makes him a near-lock because I don't think Benson or Mastroianni or whomever can beat him for the spare CF role.

 

With the weak bullpen there should be room for Tonkin, especially with Nolasco in the rotation.

 

Arcia... I could see left out. The Twins don't like carrying bench bats and are opposed to platooning.

[beckmt]

I believe Santana is a lock to start with the Twins.  Arcia will be given every chance to suceed.  If he fails it will be because he has not been able to figure out major league pitching. 

Tonkin will not make the club as I expect one or two of the super pitchers along with Pressly to beat him out. I hope TR gets some value and trades him in spring training

[nytwinsfan]

It makes absolutely zero sense to move Santana to the outfield. Why would Ryan do that? They have Rosario, Sano, Arcia, and soon Buxton and Kepler coming to the outfield. Why oh why do they need Santana there? Whereas in the infield their only backup is Nunez. I know that these comments by Ryan might be just that: comments. But one of the many jobs of a GM (and admittedly not the most important one) is to sound like you know what you are doing. It would be one thing to say Santana is going to be getting ready to play some outfield, which makes sense, but that's not what he said.

[alarp33]

Arcia's platoon should be with Park as he adjusts to the Majors.  With Gardenhire I would have no faith in this happening, with Molitor I'm at least semi optimistic.  

[Seth Stohs]

 

It makes absolutely zero sense to move Santana to the outfield. Why would Ryan do that? They have Rosario, Sano, Arcia, and soon Buxton and Kepler coming to the outfield. Why oh why do they need Santana there? Whereas in the infield their only backup is Nunez. I know that these comments by Ryan might be just that: comments. But one of the many jobs of a GM (and admittedly not the most important one) is to sound like you know what you are doing. It would be one thing to say Santana is going to be getting ready to play some outfield, which makes sense, but that's not what he said.

 

I think they're just trying to provide him with value and make him as valuable to the team as possible. As a backup, being able to play as many positions as possible is a good thing. I have no doubt he'll be a backup in the infield as well. 

[HitInAPinch]

Santana:  separate the SS Santana from the CF Santana and how do the stats look?  And I'm just not a real big believer in BABIP.  It seems like a stat built in search of a problem.  Moving him back to the OF seems to make a lot of sense.  Worse case:  be-all utility man.

 

Arcia:  I don't get the love for this guy coming off the bench.  Lot's of K's, poor defense.  Without consistent reps, I don't see where his power level would be sustainable.

 

Tonkins:  You've got to give him a real chance.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Arcia's platoon should be with Park as he adjusts to the Majors.  With Gardenhire I would have no faith in this happening, with Molitor I'm at least semi optimistic.  

 

Why would the Twins curtail Park's progression by having him play less than half of the time, in a true platoon? I can see Arcia getting a day a week at DH, but they're going to want and need to play Park through his adjustment. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

Arcia's platoon should be with Park as he adjusts to the Majors.  With Gardenhire I would have no faith in this happening, with Molitor I'm at least semi optimistic.  

Arcia in a platoon makes the most sense.  Coming off the bench;  not so much.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I feel that Tonkin and Santana have very little long term value to this team, or even much value beyond past May or June. Hopefully they perform well and move on to another organization when the younger, better guys take their turn.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd like to see Tonkin get consistent reps in a low leverage role. He strikes me as someone who can be good, though he never put it together. I really hope that Arcia forces his way into the picture this spring. That would start by playing average defense to go with his bat (that hopefully is better in 2016 than it was in 2015). I really don't want the team to give up on him, as I think that could be dangerous.

[Kwak]

It is difficult to admit failure--but it is inevitable.  The question is:  do it in Spring training or wait until May/June?  The write-up on these guys was oh so kind.  "While no one thinks or expects to put up the numbers in 2014...". Since he isn't an OF ("...Hunter will spend a lot of time...") and now it is accepted he won't hit much--he should receive a spot on the active roster?  At 25 he is no kid--and his ceiling is as a bench player who isn't much defensively and can't hit--why keep him?  There are many better options on the team.

 

Arcia--he can't play either corner--he can only be inserted there (like Willingham was) and hope they don't hit the ball his way.  "He catches most of what he gets to..."--so do little league kids.  As a hitter, he "disappoints" (to be gentle) and quite frankly there are many better options in the minor leagues for the OF.  

 

Tonkin--relief pitchers cycle in performance frequently.  If he has a strong Spring--keep him.  Else, cut him loose, there are lots of good candidates in the system.

 

In short, very little time should be spent on bench players.  If they don't quickly succeed--cut them!

Edited February 9, 2016 by Kwak

[alarp33]

 

Why would the Twins curtail Park's progression by having him play less than half of the time, in a true platoon? I can see Arcia getting a day a week at DH, but they're going to want and need to play Park through his adjustment. 

 

He's almost 30 and signed to a fairly low deal - its not like some uber prosect we're talking about.  

Obviously if Park mashes from Day 1 you aren't putting him in a true platoon - I'm more talking about as he adjusts to Major League pitching.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Michael Tonkin

...

 

Part of the issue is that he hasn’t spent any real consistent, extended time with the Twins. 

But I'll be darned if we can find any fault with the Twins allocating relief innings to the likes of Roenicke, Duensing, Swarzak, Deduno, Guerrier, Stauffer, and Thompson over the past few years...

[ThejacKmp]

 

Ozzie is a good bench bat, and I'd rather see the Twins use Danny Santana as a super utility guy than rostering Eduardo Nunez (dreams do come true!), but I think of the three that Tonkin has the best chance to make the team, and that Sanana is a near lock. Ozzie? A coin flip at best. Which is crazy for a guy who has the flag pole power to right/right-center. I mean wow. It'll be hard to watch him succeed elsewhere when he gets claimed.

 

I think coin flip severely underrates Arcia's chances in a post-Hicksian world.

 

I can’t see the Twins not keeping Arcia unless he absolutely implodes this spring training. Especially because Danny Santana making it means that one of their infield utility guys can also play OF relatively well.  That means your 4th OF doesn’t need to be a defensive sub and there’s no one who can compete with Arcia as a bench bat (well Kepler, but he’ll start in the minors).

 

That’s Arcia’s real time to worry – when Kepler is ready Arcia will be the guy who makes the most sense to go.

[Rosterman]

At this point in time, both Arcia and Santana are pretty much locks to make the team and Santana WILL start in centerfield if Buxton doesn't make the initial cut out of spring training. Arcia's bat is just too powerful to let him walk without giving him a chance to show some more stuff. At worst, he sits on the bench. At best, he gets a starting job if Sano, Rosario, Mauer or Park go down. Arcia would be grabbed by someone if he became available. Santana would have to boot the ball and hit the Mendoza line in spring training to be sent out. His battle, ultimately, could be with Nunez period if Buxton has a hot spring.

 

Tonkin is in that position that this is his last chance with the Twins. He has to produce. The Twins, at the very least, will need a 40-man roster spot for a lefty and unless they DH someone, the two major candidates are Tonkin and Hicks. (Which also brings up the cause for Santana staying...they would need a 40-man spot to add Quentin, Benson, Mastro or Sweeney). Of course, Dean, O'Rourke, Rogers and Strong could also be 40-man casualities.

 

Tonkin, if removed, would pretty much be done as a Twin, probably. Unless he blows people away in spring training (then why wouldn't the Twins keep him), he will be passed by many others in the organizational chart. Even now, he has to beat out Pressly and Graham and the spring training invitees beyond Abad.

 

The Twins still could move Plouffe, putting Sano back at third, Acia in right etc. etc. etc. And at some point, we will hopefully get a good long look at Kepler in the mix.

 

And we all will be watching Park. Will he be the DH out of the chute. Does he need seasoning, and will that happen, then, by sitting on the bench and subbing for Mauer at first and rotating, perhaps, with Arcia as a DH.

 

The Twins roster is pretty darn set. There is still dead weight in the 40-man (Nolasco NEEDS to rebound). More, if you look at the at least six names I mentioned above that could join the three out-of-options.

 

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

It is difficult to admit failure--but it is inevitable.  The question is:  do it in Spring training or wait until May/June?  The write-up on these guys was oh so kind.  "While no one thinks or expects to put up the numbers in 2014...". Since he isn't an OF ("...Hunter will spend a lot of time...") and now it is accepted he won't hit much--he should receive a spot on the active roster?  At 25 he is no kid--and his ceiling is as a bench player who isn't much defensively and can't hit--why keep him?  There are many better options on the team.

 

Arcia--he can't play either corner--he can only be inserted there (like Willingham was) and hope they don't hit the ball his way.  "He catches most of what he gets to..."--so do little league kids.  As a hitter, he "disappoints" (to be gentle) and quite frankly there are many better options in the minor leagues for the OF.  

 

Tonkin--relief pitchers cycle in performance frequently.  If he has a strong Spring--keep him.  Else, cut him loose, there are lots of good candidates in the system.

 

In short, very little time should be spent on bench players.  If they don't quickly succeed--cut them!

 

If we followed this advice there would be no Michael Cuddyer, no Aaron Hicks, no Trevor Plouffe. Guys develop late (see Dozier, Brian) and you can lose a ton of value by cutting people too quickly.

 

The Twins shouldn't be blocking anyone to keep these guys but that's not really the case. Tonkin is a good a bet as anyone in the pen, Santana is your best utility guy and Arcia doesn't block anyone (you can have Buxton, Roasario and Sano all playing with Kepler developing in AAA and Santana as a late inning defensive sub for Sano.) In no case is keeping these three something that stops other guys who deserve it.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I feel that Tonkin and Santana have very little long term value to this team, or even much value beyond past May or June. Hopefully they perform well and move on to another organization when the younger, better guys take their turn.

 

There is value in having a Danny Santana on your team all year long. If they can teach him all three OF spots (doable) and get him somewhat comfortable at 3B (less doable but less vital), that's a really valuable utility guy since he already is good enough for 2B/SS. And I think that value will stretch this entire year and through next year. The only real candidate to push Santana for the next two years is Polanco and I think the Twins see him more as an everyday middle infielder who might make Dozier expendable next year or fill in if Escobar struggles. After Polanco you're looking at guys like Levi Michael or James Beresford who don't look like improvements and can't play as many positions as Santana. I think Danny Santana looks like a Twin for the next two years - he's not amazingly good but his versatility is useful.

 

I agree with the second part - I don't know that Santana will be on your team long term (three years from now) - but Santana has value now and will play a vital role on this team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As Ryan said, all three of these Twins players can win a spot in spring training. I would venture to say it is likely that all three will make the Opening Day roster unless spring training goes just brutally for them.

What do you think Ryan would have said about Pinto before he got DFA'd?  Probably that he would have a chance to win a spot in spring training.  Not sure how meaningful that statement is.

 

Tonkin in particular seems close to that Pinto path -- as you note, the Twins have never shown any great interest in rostering him before, so why would that suddenly change when he is out of options?  The Twins aren't that afraid of cutting young players they are suspicious of (Pinto, Parmelee, Benson, etc.).

 

Arcia would be the next least likely to make it -- they liked him well enough in 2013-2014, but seemed to bury him pretty quickly last year.  Some of that was due to injury, but they are also going to factor in projected health in their decision, so it's still relevant.

 

Santana is obviously the most likely, due to his positional flexibility and having most recently gotten the endorsement of the MLB staff (remember they were playing Santana ahead of Escobar as late as July last year).

[ThejacKmp]

 

Santana:  separate the SS Santana from the CF Santana and how do the stats look?  And I'm just not a real big believer in BABIP.  It seems like a stat built in search of a problem.  Moving him back to the OF seems to make a lot of sense.  Worse case:  be-all utility man.

 

Arcia:  I don't get the love for this guy coming off the bench.  Lot's of K's, poor defense.  Without consistent reps, I don't see where his power level would be sustainable.

 

Tonkins:  You've got to give him a real chance.

 

With Santana you're ascribing a cause effect relationship when we don't even have a proven correlation. Hitting is independent of fielding by all known metrics. Santana hit in 2014 because he had a high BABIP, not because he played CF. That failed him next year but was not caused by him playing SS.

 

Its the same thing with Mauer. He isn't suddenly going to hit if we catch him - his hitting struggles are explained by things which are not related to fielding position.

[scottz]

Arcia, career (as a 22, 23, and 24 year old) versus right-handed pitching:
.250/.322/.485 - OPS .807
1 HR every 17.1 AB

 

That's good enough reason to me to keep him around and trot him out there on occasion with a right hander on the hump. El Jardinero!

[mikelink45]

This is tough to sort out.  In the past Gardy would have had his favorites, but Molitor has not been here long enough for us to figure out what traits are really appealing to him for companions on the bench. 

 

Danny Santana has not done enough to give him what seems like a guaranteed slot - there are many one year wonders who have come to baseball and knocked the cover off the ball and then could not do anything in subsequent years.  Bob Hazle of the Milwaukee Braves was a great example.  Here is a really good summary of that year - I was at the ball park to see some of his games:  http://research.sabr.org/journals/1957-hurricane-swept-braves-to-pennant or you can check this out and see the top 25 one year wonders from Bleacher Report http://bleacherreport.com/articles/713369-baseballs-25-biggest-one-hit-wonders-of-all-time 

 

What this means to me is that Spring Training is to sort out a roster and winter conversation means nothing.  Is Santana a player or a one year wonder?  I do not know, but I do not like to think that he is almost guaranteed a roster spot and that is how the conversations have gone.  Arcia is more interesting, but again, he has to show that he has matured.  

 

Of the three Tonkin seems the best bet, but we have to figure out the Nolasco pitching squad - what do we do with him?  Have him sit on the bench and talk to Joe Mauer or put him in where he will push out a starter with more potential or a reliever who has no more options?

[DocBauer]

Don't have hus numbers available at the moment, but despite his yo-yo status and such, didn't Tonkin put up his best ML numbers in 2015?

 

I worry about Arcia as a true "off the bench" player. He needs AB'S on a semi regular to be effective, IMHO. I think this can be done.

 

I find it kind of strange when I see so much focus on 2015 in regard to Arcia and Santana, their poor seasons, and what they can't do. But I don't feel there is enough reflection back to 2014, or earlier for Arcia, to show what they can do. One bad year doesn't define a young career at this point.

[Mike Sixel]

I love all the "if everything works out, he'll be fine" posts.....well, ya. But should you count on everything working out?

[nicksaviking]

I fear most that Arcia's "attitude" is going to be a major factor in his future with this club. Frankly, I could care less if he's arrogant, abrasive or sulking, but I know the team has a history of caring.

 

I get it, I don't like those kinds of co-workers. However I DO have those kinds of co-workers, most of us who work with more than a handful of people do. The rest of us have to suck it up and live with it.

 

Neither Arcia's strikeouts nor lack of walks appeared to be a major issue in the minors, I would really like to find out if he can meet his potential, I still feel like he hasn't been giving a full shot. And his defense? So what, Torii Hunter proved last year that you can play RF at Target Field from a lawn chair, particularly if you have a decent CF standing next to you.

[DJL44]

I like the idea of developing Jorge Polanco as the utility infielder. I'd like to see him on the team as I think he's a better ballplayer than Santana or Nunez but I don't think he beats out Escobar, Dozier or Plouffe.