Jose Fernandez trade rumors?

[big dog]

 

The problem is that there were a lot of indications that Liriano wasn't fully recovered.  His velocity was down 4 mph, K's were down and BB were way up.  Liriano looked like a pitcher that wasn't fully recovered and he has never returned to his pre TJ form.  Every indication is that Fernandez is completely back.

Not disagreeing.  Again, I was responding to a post comparing trading Fernandez to Johan and Liriano.  It will definitely be interesting to see how he does next year, and I certainly won't mind cheering for him if he's on the Twins.  I will probably have to recover from the heart attack Ryan trading for him would cause, but eventually I'd be well enough to watch him pitch.  I hope.

[kab21]

 

 

Why would the Twins include Berrios in a trade for Fernandez?  It makes zero sense.

First of all, IF the owner wants to get rid of him,  You don't walk into a situation like this and offer your top young player.  You have the upper hand, use it. Kepler gets them interested, Kohl Stewart is the kind of pitcher they like and I'd dangle Polanco.

 

Second:  if you trade Berrios, what would that do for the rotation?  If you're making this trade, you're doing it to match Fernandez with Berrios.  How does a rotation that starts with Fernandez, Duffey and Berrios look to you? 

 

Of course, the Fernandez situation isn't exactly clear....

Are you kidding?

 

The Marlins are not getting rid of Fernandez to get a couple of okay prospects.  They would trade him since he is one of the best pitchers in baseball and expect to get a haul.  A haul is not dangling 2 prospects that are borderline top 50 pitchers (and a fast fading prospect like Stewart).

 

The Marlins are not in a position where they have to dump Fernandez and probably every team in baseball would be able to put together a trade package that makes Kepler, Polanco and Stewart laughable.

[Vanimal46]

LOL thanks for the laughs in this thread. If you're not interested in Fernandez just say so. Don't insult others by saying a package not containing Berrios or Kepler is going to work and you are "interested"

 

Just say you're not and move on. Clearly it's going to take either of them + others to get one of the best pitchers in baseball. I'm perfectly fine giving up either one to obtain an ace.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If you mean my two relievers who are tearing up the AFL, yes, they only get one. I'm definitely interested, but probably not under circumstances the Marlins would consider. As I've mentioned several times, I think four-for-one coming off TJ is too much risk. If you still want to put words in mouth, hopefully this will help you narrow it down. I apologize if I haven't been clear enough.

Reed tore up the AFL last year too. As did Zach Jones, I suppose you could ask the Marlins not to take him either. I am not sure there has ever been a minor league reliever in the history of the game worth being untouchable even for a "damaged" ace.

 

You're not interested because of the health thing, that's fine. I think he looked good enough in his comeback this year but I could see his August shutdown being a factor.

 

But that discount might simply be sparing Buxton (and Sano) from the deal, really. Berrios and Kepler, while I like them here, already represent a discounted price.

[Darius]

Wow.  This guy has the stuff to win multiple Cy Young awards, and has a freshly rebuilt arm.  The Marlins are a joke.  What exactly is the owners' plan....do everything he can to get the team moved from Miami?

 

You just don't trade away pitchers like this, unless its a contract year.  I don't care if he pouts a little.  Isn't the objective to try and sell more tickets, not fewer?

[h2oface]

 

Which part of his comeback doesn't satisfy you?

 

11 K/9 - power is back

2 BB/9 - control is back

95+mph fastball - power is back

 

Sure there is risk but typically TJ recoverees that don't come back from TJ struggle with control and/or velocity.  We aren't talking about acquiring the 30-40th best pitcher (Sonny Gray for example).  We are talking about acquiring a Johan Santana level pitcher. 

 

If Liriano had posted those kinds of stats his 1st year back then there is not a person on this board that would have traded him for any collection of prospects.

 

Fernandez had movement on his pitches that you could see from the upper row in the upper deck of any stadium. I am not satisfied that Fernandez will be able to stay "back". That is the risk involved, or the part of his comeback that doesn't satisfy me. Just the time. But I agree totally, that he was a game changer, and could be long term, as thought of before the TJ, and if so, would be every bit worth "prospects" and hope and dreams, including Berrios and Kepler. I don't think Ryan has the balls to take that chance.

[h2oface]

 

Why would the Twins include Berrios in a trade for Fernandez?  It makes zero sense.

First of all, IF the owner wants to get rid of him,  You don't walk into a situation like this and offer your top young player.  You have the upper hand, use it. Kepler gets them interested, Kohl Stewart is the kind of pitcher they like and I'd dangle Polanco.

 

Second:  if you trade Berrios, what would that do for the rotation?  If you're making this trade, you're doing it to match Fernandez with Berrios.  How does a rotation that starts with Fernandez, Duffey and Berrios look to you? 

 

Of course, the Fernandez situation isn't exactly clear....

 

Since Berrios has never been in the rotation, and is a totally mystery as to what will happen ((albeit with very high expectations (hopes), of course)) to him anyway - you now have an ace to add, and a #5 or worse to drop out. I pretend I never had Berrios, and sport the new ace's jersey, an ace that I know I have, if healthy for, 3 to 4 years, and enjoy the change of scenery.  Time to win a world series in the next three years. 

 

Nobody's situation is ever really clear. It can always all change with one pitch or slide or throw or dive or.......... and what once was clear is overcast or worse.  Berrios could hurt himself in his off season workout routine, and never get to the show........  

 

The rotation looks massively better with Fernandez in it, no matter who the rest of the guys are.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't know if I like the idea of giving up Berrios for Fernandez.  I wonder though if guys like Gibson, Duffey, or May might be in conversation here.  I guess I'm not sure what the Marlin's pitching staff looks like, and I think I'd struggle more sending guys I like to that trainwreck of a franchise, but given the pitching we have right now, to get a guy like Fernandez, I'd have to think we would want to send some mlready arms over.  I don't see Florida taking Nolasco or Milone off our hands.

[Pardon My Dinger]

I'd offer Buxton. That ought to pretty much do it.

[h2oface]

 

I'd offer Buxton. That ought to pretty much do it.

 

I would bet just Buxton would not come close to making a deal happen.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

I would bet just Buxton would not come close to making a deal happen.

Just what exactly are they going to get back that would be better than a piece that will potentially give then an all-time greatest OF?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Just what exactly are they going to get back that would be better than a piece that will potentially give then an all-time greatest OF?

 

2-3 good to great prospects, and another guy or two. Buxton is one player, who has no real MLB experience. He's not getting Fernandez by himself, imo. Not close.

[drjim]

Buxton is easily getting Fernandez, but Twins aren't doing that.

[biggentleben]

 

Buxton is easily getting Fernandez, but Twins aren't doing that.

 

I think Buxton would be a big centerpiece for a deal for Fernandez, but he wouldn't get it done 1-for-1, and I have a feeling Twins fans are too wrapped up in Buxton to accept such a move.

[drjim]

I think Buxton would be a big centerpiece for a deal for Fernandez, but he wouldn't get it done 1-for-1, and I have a feeling Twins fans are too wrapped up in Buxton to accept such a move.

He's the top 1 or 2 prospect in the game. Elite, elite guy. He gets 3 years of a slightly damaged ace. Easily.

 

People are vastly overrating the impact of his struggles last year on his overall value.

[Mike Sixel]

 

He's the top 1 or 2 prospect in the game. Elite, elite guy. He gets 3 years of a slightly damaged ace. Easily.

People are vastly overrating the impact of his struggles last year on his overall value.

 

Or, not everyone agrees with you......Wil Meyers plus a rookie MLB pitcher got back a number 2/3 and a RP.......Cameron has Buxton well down his trade value list. The certainty with which you are posting seems a bit strong, imo.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He's the top 1 or 2 prospect in the game. Elite, elite guy. He gets 3 years of a slightly damaged ace. Easily.

People are vastly overrating the impact of his struggles last year on his overall value.

And you are overrating the "damage" to Fernandez, especially since he came back like gangbusters from TJ surgery.

 

Again, Buxton is a fine centerpiece to a deal, but at no point in his pro career to date would he have brought back a healthy MLB ace straight-up.  Otherwise you'd see a lot more top prospects dealt in this fashion.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Or, not everyone agrees with you......Wil Meyers plus a rookie MLB pitcher got back a number 2/3 and a RP.......

And Addison Russell got 1.5 years of Samardzija.

 

If top prospects could easily return 3 years of a legit ace straight-up, you'd see one or more dealt every year, the success rate even among top prospects isn't that high to make that a losing strategy.

[drjim]

Or, not everyone agrees with you......Wil Meyers plus a rookie MLB pitcher got back a number 2/3 and a RP.......Cameron has Buxton well down his trade value list. The certainty with which you are posting seems a bit strong, imo.

Stronger prospect than Myers. And Cameron is certainly entitled to his opinion.

 

But you do bring up a good point I didn't articulate and was too strong with. He may not get Fernandez specifically because the Marlins might not value him as highly, but he would absolutely be valued that highly by a significant portion of front offices. So I amend my statement.

[biggentleben]

 

He's the top 1 or 2 prospect in the game. Elite, elite guy. He gets 3 years of a slightly damaged ace. Easily.

People are vastly overrating the impact of his struggles last year on his overall value.

 

He's also come up to the majors and had initial struggles. Granted, I'm not saying that makes him a flop, but there's also bloom that's come off the rose with Buxton as well as Fernandez. He's a valuable player for sure, but prospects don't have quite the pull you'd think when there's a more "certain" player coming in return.

[drjim]

He's also come up to the majors and had initial struggles. Granted, I'm not saying that makes him a flop, but there's also bloom that's come off the rose with Buxton as well as Fernandez. He's a valuable player for sure, but prospects don't have quite the pull you'd think when there's a more "certain" player coming in return.

The elite of the elite still do. And Fernandez is far from the best starter, has his own issues (as you state).

 

From the beginning I should have been more clear certain teams might not value him as high, but others certainly do.

 

This isn't just about Buxton, it applies to any elite, elite prospect in his situation.

 

I really don't think initial struggles in the bigs hurt value as much as others here seem to.

[nicksaviking]

With no slight to Buxton, I don't know if any top prospect alone ever would have been enough to snag three years of control from a 23-year-old legit ace. Ever.

 

Baseball people tend to like proven commodities while fans put a ton of weight in projection. And I'm not saying the fans are necessarily wrong, but that's just how it is.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The elite of the elite still do.

Example?  Surely if these "elite of the elite" prospects could normally pull 3 years of an ace, it would have happened a few times, no?

 

"Elite of the elite" prospects are still just that, prospects.  They can be trade centerpieces but they aren't getting 3 years of an MLB superstar straight up.

 

Hence why elite prospects aren't traded often -- it's usually better for the team to keep them and see if they fulfill their own superstar potential, because superstar potential is worth notably less on the open market than an actual superstar.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

He's the top 1 or 2 prospect in the game. Elite, elite guy. He gets 3 years of a slightly damaged ace. Easily.
 

 

Translation =  Miami could start by offering Fernandez, but they would really need to sweeten the pot? 

[drjim]

 

Example?  Surely if these "elite of the elite" prospects could normally pull 3 years of an ace, it would have happened a few times, no?

 

"Elite of the elite" prospects are still just that, prospects.  They can be trade centerpieces but they aren't getting 3 years of an MLB superstar straight up.

 

Hence why elite prospects aren't traded often -- it's usually better for the team to keep them and see if they fulfill their own superstar potential, because superstar potential is worth notably less on the open market than an actual superstar.

 

True, they don't generally move, which probable means this isn't a very realistic scenario.

 

But thinking about it, Addison Russell would be the closest to Buxton, and he was further away at the time and I would say not as highly regarded (but close). He certainly went for something much less than Fernandez - but most people were pretty surprised by the trade and they were certainly justified in their surprise by events that have happened since. And if it had been a GM that wasn't Billy Beane, he would be getting absolutely destroyed, continually.

 

So not sure if this helps or hurts my case...

 

 

[Vanimal46]

Yeah I don't think you can look at any examples in the past that show 1 elite prospect netting an ace caliber P like Fernandez. Then again there probably isn't a lot of examples of 23 year old star P's being shopped around. 

None the less, it's going to take quality, and quantity to acquire someone like Fernandez. I'm on board to try and acquire him. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

True, they don't generally move, which probable means this isn't a very realistic scenario.

 

But thinking about it, Addison Russell would be the closest to Buxton, and he was further away at the time and I would say not as highly regarded (but close). He certainly went for something much less than Fernandez - but most people were pretty surprised by the trade and they were certainly justified in their surprise by events that have happened since. And if it had been a GM that wasn't Billy Beane, he would be getting absolutely destroyed, continually.

 

So not sure if this helps or hurts my case...

I'd say hurts.

 

But seriously, I think if you tried to move an elite prospect straight up for an established MLBer, you will probably wind up with 1.5 years of Samardzija type offers.  That's just a reflection of the risk involved in a single prospect, even an elite one.

 

So teams generally hold on to them instead, or build a package around them for a better return.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Back to the subject at hand, I'd definitely consider Buxton + others not including Berrios and Kepler.

 

Or Berrios + Kepler, as the original suggestion.

 

Both predicated on the Twins being absolutely comfortable with Fernandez's recent medicals, of course.

 

I suspect either proposal wouldn't quite meet the Marlins demands right now.  Buxton + Berrios probably would, but that's pretty steep -- and I don't think I could ever be comfortable enough with the medicals to pull that trigger...