Or he plays out his arb years and looks to make 300M+ in free agency while the Twins are out Kepler, Berrios, Jay and Gordon who all have pretty high ceilings.  Selling the farm and betting on one player, especially a player with arm injuries in the past just doesn't sit well with me.

 

Understandable. If Fernandez plays out his arbitration years and is scheduled to make $300M+ like you suggest, I would imagine he's gone on to be a multiple year all-star, maybe a Cy Young and help the Twins make some deep playoff runs... maybe even, gasp, a world series win! Worst case, the Twins can do the same thing the Marlins are doing and trade him to restock the prospect cupboard.  

As far as your other concern of acquiring someone with arm injuries in the past, man, you're eliminating 25% of current MLB pitchers, and 15% of minor league pitchers alone who have had TJ surgery. I'm not as worried as you about a 23 year old struggling to recover from that surgery. If anything I'm glad he got it at a young age and the odds of him having to get another one in the future is pretty low. In fact, 2-4% of pitchers need a 2nd surgery according to the link below. 

http://m.mlb.com/pitchsmart/tommy-john-faq/

Edited November 19, 201510 yr by Vanimal46

From ESPN:   Five possible trade destinations for Jose Fernandez. 

 

The Twins are at #4.  WHAT?!?!?!

 

Remember people, the Marlins are now desperate to get rid of him.  Take advantage

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/66550/five-potential-trade-destinations-for-jose-fernandez.

 

Kepler, Gordon and Kohl Stewart. 

Edited November 19, 201510 yr by HitInAPinch

 

3 years of 21 WAR + 2 other players playing RP and OF, is better than 6.5 years of 21 WAR for 3 players...since, you know, other players will play those positions that Burdi and Kepler will.....that's one of the worst comparisons of value in history*. It doesn't work that way.

 

*exaggeration, that's not how I REALLY feel

Nah, WAR takes into account opportunity cost. That is the whole point of a replacement level player. So for the Twins, Burdi or Kepler might not be a big upgrade, but someone else out there has a replacement corner OF or replacement reliever so that they would trade for the full expected WAR value of Kepler or Burdi, just as someone with a replacement level starter would be willing to trade for the full expected WAR value of Fernandez or Berrios. In individual instances obviously you focus on short-term needs and excess, since finding good trade partners and negotiating takes time, but it isn't clear to me that that is relevant here.

Edited November 19, 201510 yr by nytwinsfan

 

From ESPN:   Five possible trade destinations for Jose Fernandez. 

 

The Twins are at #4.  WHAT?!?!?!

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/66550/five-potential-trade-destinations-for-jose-fernandez

Interesting. I might consider a package based on Kepler, Gordon, and others. But not Berrios. I think that's the way Ryan sees it too.

If you trade 4 decent to very good prospects for 1 player, you are getting one really superior player.  You are also greatly increasing the chance that your entire side of that trade goes on the DL, potentially for a long time.  Especially if it's a pitcher.

 

If the Angels want to talk about a 4 for 1 for Trout, or the DBacks for Goldschmidt, I'm all ears.  For a stud pitcher a half-season back from TJ surgery?  I'm too risk-averse for that.  But I respect the rights of others to go for it.

 

-- and for the same reason, I'd include Berrios before I included Kepler.  Heck, I'd trade any 4 pitchers not named Berrios for him, too.

Edited November 19, 201510 yr by big dog

 

From ESPN:   Five possible trade destinations for Jose Fernandez. 

 

The Twins are at #4.  WHAT?!?!?!

 

Remember people, the Marlins are now desperate to get rid of him.  Take advantage

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/66550/five-potential-trade-destinations-for-jose-fernandez.

 

Kepler, Gordon and Kohl Stewart. 

 

Yes time to jump on board the Fernandez bandwagon! I'm driving!!

When we're doing WAR calculations for pitchers, keep in mind that neither fWAR nor bWAR are good rating systems for pitchers.  These two different rating systems diverge greatly on their values of pitchers, which shows you can't really trust either of them.

 

That said, do you think the Marlins would take Nolasco back as part of a trade?  Maybe they'd only remember how he pitched when he was a Marlin?

 

If you trade 4 decent to very good prospects for 1 player, you are getting one really superior player.  You are also greatly increasing the chance that your entire side of that trade goes on the DL, potentially for a long time.  Especially if it's a pitcher.

 

I seriously can't remember, how did the Mets fare with Viola? A different era, but...

Here is the writeup that started all of this.   Talking more of what mess Mike Redmond's clubhouse was and that the Marlins FO are trying to fix it.  The Fernandez story is secondary. 

 

Rumors about him being traded came out because of that piece and they were denied.  That ESPN blog post is purely speculative and deserves as much attention as anything in the Twins Daily Blogs category (and maybe even less than some of that stuff.)

Slow News Week for baseball.  Tomorrow things will pick up with the Rule 5 protections, so that will go away.

But interesting to see what kind of mess Redmond had going over there...

Not saying they should....not saying they shouldn't.

 

But I always get a bit skittish when it comes to that BIG trade for 1 guy and you give up 4 or 5 guys, usually 3 of which are top prospects in your organization. That 1 guy can make a big difference to be sure. But...hate to state the obvious...that 1 SP is out there 1 day in 5. That 1 big position player is still 1 of 9. Not saying any of those guys aren't important, but you still need the surrounding cast. Further, what if you are wrong on that 1 guy, or he's hurt. Now you've traded away depth, maybe a potential young star or two, and are left holding the bag.

 

Again...not saying they should...not saying they shouldn't.

 

I just don't know that's as easy a trigger to pull as an all in, "hell yeah".

I seriously can't remember, how did the Mets fare with Viola? A different era, but...

Viola was very good for a couple years, but even he didn't have the upside that Fernandez has shown thus far.

 

And frankly the Mets didn't lose that much, a solid closer and a few decent seasons from Tapani, primarily.

You think baseball players have "attitude issues"? How about us fans. Sometimes a mirror tells the truth. Well, always.  Oh what will Terry do.

Edited November 20, 201510 yr by h2oface

If Fernandez was available then this is the guy you sell part of the farm for.  Berrios and Kepler for Jose Fernandez is a no doubter despite how much I like both of them.  Even if they only kept him for 3 years Fernandez is the type of guy that completely transforms a team. 

 

There are a limited # of spots in a lineup/rotation and the effect of having 2-3 6+ WAR players on the same team is huge.  No amount of 2 WAR players comes close to that.  And it isn't impossible to find 2+ WAR players.  It is nearly impossible to find 6+ WAR players.

As much as I like Fernandez, he is still at a point in his comeback that he is a total unknown. Trading deadline would be much better.

What makes people think Fernandez will be available at the trade deadline? He's available right now. This is the window to acquire him. Take advantage or wonder what could have been when he's dominating on another team.

 

As much as I like Fernandez, he is still at a point in his comeback that he is a total unknown. Trading deadline would be much better.

Which part of his comeback doesn't satisfy you?

 

11 K/9 - power is back

2 BB/9 - control is back

95+mph fastball - power is back

 

Sure there is risk but typically TJ recoverees that don't come back from TJ struggle with control and/or velocity.  We aren't talking about acquiring the 30-40th best pitcher (Sonny Gray for example).  We are talking about acquiring a Johan Santana level pitcher. 

 

If Liriano had posted those kinds of stats his 1st year back then there is not a person on this board that would have traded him for any collection of prospects.

Honestly, I'm not sure I trust the elbow of someone who hasn't had TJ surgery as much as a reconstructed elbow nowadays...   Shoulders are a different story...

 

Re: Total WAR over 3 seasons vs. 6 seasons...  I don't think MLB will move to having 3 year seasons or playoffs every third year, so  the name of the game is still trying to win as many games as you can each season and hope you have some elite talent to carry you through the playoffs.

We should be in this conversation for sure.

We should be in this conversation for sure.

But won't be.

 

Which part of his comeback doesn't satisfy you?

 

11 K/9 - power is back

2 BB/9 - control is back

95+mph fastball - power is back

 

Sure there is risk but typically TJ recoverees that don't come back from TJ struggle with control and/or velocity.  We aren't talking about acquiring the 30-40th best pitcher (Sonny Gray for example).  We are talking about acquiring a Johan Santana level pitcher. 

 

If Liriano had posted those kinds of stats his 1st year back then there is not a person on this board that would have traded him for any collection of prospects.

The Mets acquired Johan and got 4 years of FIP over 3.5, another over 4, and a huge bill.  He had pitched 5 seasons for the Twins with at least 33 starts, and only pitched one for the Mets (though he had a second with 29).  They got one great year, 2 years that were below his 5-year Twins run, and then injuries.  They only gave up a very raw Gomez and 3 guys named Smith.

 

We should absolutely have traded Liriano after his surgery- he had a good half-season after the surgery, then in his last 5 Twins seasons he had an ERA+ of 112/FIP of 2.66 in one year.  The other 4 seasons had ERA+ of 80 or below, FIPs ranging from 4.24 to 4.87.  The board would have been outraged, perhaps, but the board would have been wrong.

 

If we had gotten four top minor leaguers, headlined by either Berrios or Kepler, for Sanata or Liriano (or Viola), it would have been an incredible trade for the Twins.

 

But I'd still be willing to listen to offers.  The price would have to be a little lower than what I've heard so far for me to bite.

 

Edited November 20, 201510 yr by big dog

 

The Mets acquired Johan and got 4 years of FIP over 3.5, another over 4, and a huge bill.  He had pitched 5 seasons for the Twins with at least 33 starts, and only pitched one for the Mets (though he had a second with 29).  They got one great year, 2 years that were below his 5-year Twins run, and then injuries.  They only gave up a very raw Gomez and 3 guys named Smith.

 

We should absolutely have traded Liriano after his surgery- he had a good half-season after the surgery, then in his last 5 Twins seasons he had an ERA+ of 112/FIP of 2.66 in one year.  The other 4 seasons had ERA+ of 80 or below, FIPs ranging from 4.24 to 4.87.  The board would have been outraged, perhaps, but the board would have been wrong.

 

If we had gotten four top minor leaguers, headlined by either Berrios or Kepler, for Sanata or Liriano (or Viola), it would have been an incredible trade for the Twins.

 

But I'd still be willing to listen to offers.  The price would have to be a little lower than what I've heard so far for me to bite.

 

I don't understand your point on Santana and how that applies to Jose Fernandez. We traded Johan in his age 29 season when he already logged 1,075 innings in the big leagues. Fernandez is 23 years old with 289 big league innings under his belt. How is that the same kind of trade?

Also, what would the price have to be in order for you to bite on the deal?

I just stumbled upon this article on ESPN.com by David Schoenfield who lists the Minnesota Twins as one of the top 5 potential landing spots for Jose Fernandez if the Miami Marlins decide to deal their young ace.  It shouldn't come as a surprise that the Twins are listed as a potential suitor for Fernandez because of our strong farm system, but based on the reports out of Miami on Fernandez's character, is he worth it?  I am not sure what the asking price would be, but it surely should not include Sano, Buxton, or Berrios.  Then again, I do not know how Miami makes the deal without one of those three involved.  I'd be willing to part with Kepler, Stewart, Gonsalves, and a prospect like Arcia/Vargas/Polanco, but I doubt that would be enough.  What do you think?  Is he worth it?  What would it take?  

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/66550/five-potential-trade-destinations-for-jose-fernandez

 

 

 

 

The Mets acquired Johan and got 4 years of FIP over 3.5, another over 4, and a huge bill.  He had pitched 5 seasons for the Twins with at least 33 starts, and only pitched one for the Mets (though he had a second with 29).  They got one great year, 2 years that were below his 5-year Twins run, and then injuries.  They only gave up a very raw Gomez and 3 guys named Smith.

 

We should absolutely have traded Liriano after his surgery- he had a good half-season after the surgery, then in his last 5 Twins seasons he had an ERA+ of 112/FIP of 2.66 in one year.  The other 4 seasons had ERA+ of 80 or below, FIPs ranging from 4.24 to 4.87.  The board would have been outraged, perhaps, but the board would have been wrong.

 

If we had gotten four top minor leaguers, headlined by either Berrios or Kepler, for Sanata or Liriano (or Viola), it would have been an incredible trade for the Twins.

 

But I'd still be willing to listen to offers.  The price would have to be a little lower than what I've heard so far for me to bite.

Johan Santana was a completely different situation than this.  Fernandez will make 2-3M next season and below market rates for the following years.  That is why (and Bill Smith) the Twins didn't get a comparable package for him.

 

ERA+ is a pretty weak stat to use to show that someone (like Liriano) had fully recovered from TJ.  Velocity was way down, K's were way down and BB's were way up.  Liriano looked borderline awful that year and got demoted at one point.  Fernandez came back like he hadn't been away and he was dominant in his return.  It was only 60 innings but he certainly looks fully recovered.

 

I just stumbled upon this article on ESPN.com by David Schoenfield who lists the Minnesota Twins as one of the top 5 potential landing spots for Jose Fernandez if the Miami Marlins decide to deal their young ace.  It shouldn't come as a surprise that the Twins are listed as a potential suitor for Fernandez because of our strong farm system, but based on the reports out of Miami on Fernandez's character, is he worth it?  I am not sure what the asking price would be, but it surely should not include Sano, Buxton, or Berrios.  Then again, I do not know how Miami makes the deal without one of those three involved.  I'd be willing to part with Kepler, Stewart, Gonsalves, and a prospect like Arcia/Vargas/Polanco, but I doubt that would be enough.  What do you think?  Is he worth it?  What would it take?  

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/66550/five-potential-trade-destinations-for-jose-fernandez

I get not including Sano or Buxton, but why wouldn't you trade Berrios? There is about a 99% chance that Fernandez is ultimately the better pitcher.

I just posted on the Shelby Miller topic about the same article.  This is definitely something the Twins should consider if they could get him for that package of players, but I think the Marlins would want more (maybe Kepler, Gordon, and Stewart).  I don't think this happens because there are too many risks with Fernandez:

     *He's already had a couple arm injuries, including Tommy John

     *It sounds like he may be a major malcontent, which isn't something the Twins seem to be willing to deal with

     *He's a Boras client, so you get him for 3 years, but there won't be a contract extension and it's very unlikely the Twins could resign him as a free agent

 

 

Maybe if there willing to reunite with Ricky

Edited November 20, 201510 yr by TwinsTerritory

I mostly didn't want to include Berrios because of his tremendous upside and he can be under control for many years.  Obviously I understand that he probably needs to be included, but it'd be great if he didn't need to be.  I am also nervous about acquiring Fernandez since he is a Boras client and that may not bode well for the Twins if they hope to keep him long-term.  

There is a whole thread that was moved to MLB baseball section where this is being discussed already....

 

I get not including Sano or Buxton, but why wouldn't you trade Berrios? There is about a 99% chance that Fernandez is ultimately the better pitcher.

 I don't think there's any doubt he's better than Berrios, but if the Twins are serious about winning a championship you need Berrios and another "ace".  Plus Berrios is hopefully going to be around for a lot longer than 3 years.

I mentioned this in the other thread... Fernandez is a guy I would give up the farm for, no question. The attitude problems mentioned do not bother me one bit. He's on the Marlins, people; AKA the worst run organization in the MLB, arguably all of sports. Once he's not associated with a train wreck franchise, all of those concerns will be alleviated. 

 

Nah, they'd want Berrios plus more as part of any deal, and he has only 3 years of control, so no thanks.  I'll take Berrios' 6+ years of control and perfect health history, even if his upside is a bit less.

Oh man, I wouldn't. Fernandez is the exact type of pitcher that can take this team and put them over the top. Also those three years of control give the Twins a head start on getting him on board with a long term deal.