http://deadspin.com/the-jose-fernandez-trade-rumors-just-started-and-report-1743497841

 

Sounds like Fernandez might be on the block.  Healthy, he's a real ace and under team control for a few more years.  But he's had health issues - 19 starts the last two years - and, apparently, an attitude issue.  

 

Miami has made a lot of trades for good prospects and I doubt the Twins could start a conversation without at least including Berrios.  It'll be interesting to see what happens.

Every Marlin is on the block, always.

 

Fernandez has been pretty amazing.  Unfortunately, he's already up to 3 years service time, so he'd only offer 3 more years of team control.  He did come back from TJ fantastically, before missing time at the end of the year (reportedly just a bicep strain, and no shoulder damage).  At least his injuries have held his price down, projected to make only $2.2 mil in arbitration this winter by MLBTR.

 

If his arm could currently pass a thorough physical, I'd still probably be willing to lead a package with Berrios.  I like Berrios and look forward to watching him, but Fernandez is just on another level talent-wise.

If you think he's healthy, no 3 prospects in the system combined are worth the certainty that he would bring......most prospects fail. But that is a HUGE risk on the health, imo.

The return to get Fernandez if he's deemed healthy would be enormous. Not saying I wouldn't explore it, but it would hurt to pay the necessary price.

 

In other news, seriously, what the heck is wrong with baseball in that we allow Jeffrey Loria to continue to own and operate a baseball team?

Nah, they'd want Berrios plus more as part of any deal, and he has only 3 years of control, so no thanks.  I'll take Berrios' 6+ years of control and perfect health history, even if his upside is a bit less.

I don't think he's on the trading block. There was just some people who speculated that he was due to the poor record of the Marlins. Fernandez is a great pitcher. There's no way they get rid of him.

Wait, you'd rather have Berrios, who has NEVER pitched in the majors, than Fernandez even if he is healthy?

This is a guy I would give up the farm for, no question. Berrios is our prized possession, and held in such high regards here on TD. But come on, Fernandez is a supremely talented 23 year old pitcher. 

I also wouldn't be too concerned with the supposed "attitude problems". Let's all remember he plays for the Marlins, the worst run organization in the MLB, maybe all of sports. Once he goes to an organization that isn't a train wreck, those issues will disappear. 

Edited November 19, 201510 yr by Vanimal46

 

I also wouldn't be too concerned with the supposed "attitude problems". Let's all remember he plays for the Marlins, the worst run organization in the MLB, maybe all of sports. Once he goes to an organization that isn't a train wreck, those issues will disappear. 

 

While I agree that playing for the Marlins could certainly lead to attitude issues, issues with Twins players tend to disappear only because the player in question gets traded.  Lohse, Garza, Gomez, Young, (Nolasco fingers crossed ); seems like a trend, not a coincidence.

 

Also, Fernandez is from Tampa, if there is an attitude problem, taking him out of his comfort zone and bringing him to what the rest of the country considers the boonies, might not actually help the attitude.

 

Not that I'm in anyway declining a trade for the guy.

If he is healthy, I'd probably do a package of Berrios/Kepler + Jay/Gordon and Burdi and Walker but I'm not sure that would be enough.  

 

While I agree that playing for the Marlins could certainly lead to attitude issues, issues with Twins players tend to disappear only because the player in question gets traded.  Lohse, Garza, Gomez, Young, (Nolasco fingers crossed ); seems like a trend, not a coincidence.

 

Also, Fernandez is from Tampa, if there is an attitude problem, taking him out of his comfort zone and bringing him to what the rest of the country considers the boonies, might not actually help the attitude.

 

Not that I'm in anyway declining a trade for the guy.

 

I see your point, but you're mentioning every player from the Ron Gardenhire era. Those players may have had different circumstances leading to their attitude problems, but so far so good in the Molitor era. 

Your next point about taking him out of his comfort zone... It sounds like that's exactly what he's looking for, speculatively asking to be traded multiple times last season. I don't blame him for wanting to get away from that circus of a franchise. 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/report-jose-fernandez-demanded-trade-on-multiple-occasions-111915

Berrios without a doubt.   He is not that big and throws pretty hard so would not surprise me to seen surgery in his future also.  They somehow scored fewer runs despite all their position players seemingly outproducing ours.    They could use power so maybe Plouffe and Berrios or Berrios plus anyone not named Sano or Buxton.

Their rotation looked very weak after Fernandez and Harren age 34, so maybe Berrios, Hughes, and Ploouffe.   

What is messed up about the Twins is that if we didn't have Berrios and wanted him I would not be willing to part with May or Duffey to get him and Gibson and Santana would be iffy as well but I would give up any of the others for him which just tells me the rotation next year should be May, Duffey, Santana, Gibson and Berrios.

Berrios Hughes and Plouffe IMO wouldn't come close to obtaining Fernandez. We're talking about a 23 year old who's arguably the face of their franchise. And if acquired would be the anchor of the Twins staff for 8-10 years.

 

I don't care if the price is Kepler, Berrios, Jay & Gordon. I would push all of my chips in to acquire him.

 

Wait, you'd rather have Berrios, who has NEVER pitched in the majors, than Fernandez even if he is healthy?

Yes, except that we don't know if Fernandez will remain healthy. But yes, because with Berrios we have an extra 3.5 years of control.  That means Fernandez has to be more than twice as good as Berrios to make that trade worthwhile, and that also ignores that given the way that our current window is shaping up, 2019-21 may be the years with the highest chance of going all the way.

Edited November 19, 201510 yr by nytwinsfan

LOL always pushing back the 3 year window to go all in and be world series champs.....

 

Berrios Hughes and Plouffe IMO wouldn't come close to obtaining Fernandez. We're talking about a 23 year old who's arguably the face of their franchise. And if acquired would be the anchor of the Twins staff for 8-10 years.

I don't care if the price is Kepler, Berrios, Jay & Gordon. I would push all of my chips in to acquire him.

Would you make Buxton available for him? If not, would your calculation change if Hicks was still on the roster?

 

Personally, I wouldn't trade Buxton, Berrios or Gordon for him, mostly because I don't think that the Twins' best window is 2016-2018. Like nytwinsfan just said, I also think this core will probably peak later.

 

 

If he is healthy, I'd probably do a package of Berrios/Kepler + Jay/Gordon and Burdi and Walker but I'm not sure that would be enough.  

No way. At very very tops, Fernandez provides 21 WAR over the next 3 years.  You don't think Berrios and Gordon and Burdi would provide 21 WAR in total over 6.5 years each? That would mean an average of 1.08 WAR per season for those three. I think they will easily surpass that. I'd guess 10 WAR for Berrios, 7 WAR for Gordon (high floor), and 4 WAR for Burdi is a conservative estimate of their expected WAR over their first 6.5 seasons.  And again, that doesn't even take into account that our years with the best chances of making the playoffs/world series are likely to be 2018-21, not 2016 and 2017.

 

Note, Fangraphs' Steamer projections projects 4.9 WAR for Fernandez next year, which is great no doubt. But it also projects .9 WAR for Berrios in a mere 65 innings, extrapolating to close to 3 WAR for a full season. So yeah, factoring in the control and the added risk of putting all your WAR in one basket (and a basket that recently recovered form an injury) --  I wouldn't do that at all.

 

 

Edited November 19, 201510 yr by nytwinsfan

 

Would you make Buxton available for him? If not, would your calculation change if Hicks was still on the roster?

 

Personally, I wouldn't trade Buxton, Berrios or Gordon for him, mostly because I don't think that the Twins' best window is 2016-2018. Like nytwinsfan just said, I also think this core will probably peak later.

 

Tough pill to swallow, but something I would deeply consider if it's a Buxton for Fernandez straight up trade. If that was the take it or leave it trade, I would probably pull the trigger on it.

I'd prefer to go the quantity route with Berrios, Kepler, Gordon, etc. instead of giving up either Buxton or Sano FWIW. 

3 years of 21 WAR + 2 other players playing RP and OF, is better than 6.5 years of 21 WAR for 3 players...since, you know, other players will play those positions that Burdi and Kepler will.....that's one of the worst comparisons of value in history*. It doesn't work that way.

 

*exaggeration, that's not how I REALLY feel

Edited November 19, 201510 yr by Mike Sixel

 

No way. At very very tops, Fernandez provides 21 WAR over the next 3 years.  You don't think Berrios and Gordon and Burdi would provide 21 WAR in total over 6.5 years each? That would mean an average of 1.08 WAR per season for those three. I think they will easily surpass that. I'd guess 10 WAR for Berrios, 7 WAR for Gordon (high floor), and 4 WAR for Burdi is a conservative estimate of their expected WAR over their first 6.5 seasons.  And again, that doesn't even take into account that our years with the best chances of making the playoffs/world series are likely to be 2018-21, not 2016 and 2017.

 

Note, Fangraphs' Steamer projections projects 4.9 WAR for Fernandez next year, which is great no doubt. But it also projects .9 WAR for Berrios in a mere 65 innings, extrapolating to close to 3 WAR for a full season. So yeah, factoring in the control and the added risk of putting all your WAR in one basket (and a basket that recently recovered form an injury) --  I wouldn't do that at all.

Those guys might make the same (or better) value but that's not usually the comparison when making "win-now" trades.  The team moving prospects is making two bets - 1) They can get a lot better faster now with (in this case) Fernandez and 2) they have or can acquire depth to make up for the loss of the prospects in some other way down the road. 

 

A healthy Fernandez upgrades the pitching staff tremendously - the Twins can go with a rotation of Fernandez, Santana, Hughes, Gibson and Duffey to start the season leaving May to strengthen the pen and they'd still have SP depth with Milone and Nolasco, as well.  

 

That said, I still don't think my proposal would win out.  And there's no chance that Ryan makes that proposal anyway.

Edited November 19, 201510 yr by gunnarthor

The Marlins will settle for nothing less than Sano, Buxton, Rosario, and Berrios.

Yeah, the "Berrios can provide more WAR in 6 years than Fernandez in 3" argument doesn't make much sense. Teams don't compete with the goal of "most WAR over a 6 year period" and even if they did, it's not like Fernandez has to be replaced with a zero WAR player for the other 3 years.

 

3 years of 21 WAR + 2 other players playing RP and OF, is better than 6.5 years of 21 WAR for 3 players...since, you know, other players will play those positions that Burdi and Kepler will.....that's one of the worst comparisons of value in history*. It doesn't work that way.

 

*exaggeration, that's not how I REALLY feel

 

 

Ooh, that's harsh. . Think of it another way though. Those excess assets, in this case Burdi and Kepler, which theoretically represent an overpay, could be traded for equal value elsewhere, right? 

 

Ooh, that's harsh. . Think of it another way though. Those excess assets, in this case Burdi and Kepler, which theoretically represent an overpay, could be traded for equal value elsewhere, right? 

 

Right, lots of other stuff happens. I was arguing the usefulness of the calculation used, nothing more or less.

 

edit, and I have an irrational prospect crush on Kepler, and I'd still deal Berrios and him for Fernandez if I thought he was healthy.....

Edited November 19, 201510 yr by Mike Sixel

 

The Marlins will settle for nothing less than Sano, Buxton, Rosario, and Berrios.

I wouldn't give that for Kershaw.      You still have to defend and score runs.    

 

LOL always pushing back the 3 year window to go all in and be world series champs.....

Not for me.   Not going all in does not mean conceding.    I believe they are entering a 7 year stretch where they are going to have a better than 1 in 30 chance of winning it all.     I will take a 5% chance every year over an 8% chance for two years followed by years of 3%.  

 

The Marlins will settle for nothing less than Sano, Buxton, Rosario, and Berrios.

 

You type with much certainty...I would not do that. 3 top 10-20 prospects in all of MLB (if they were still prospects) for 1 guy? No.

 

Berrios Hughes and Plouffe IMO wouldn't come close to obtaining Fernandez. We're talking about a 23 year old who's arguably the face of their franchise. And if acquired would be the anchor of the Twins staff for 8-10 years.

I don't care if the price is Kepler, Berrios, Jay & Gordon. I would push all of my chips in to acquire him.

 

Or he plays out his arb years and looks to make 300M+ in free agency while the Twins are out Kepler, Berrios, Jay and Gordon who all have pretty high ceilings.  Selling the farm and betting on one player, especially a player with arm injuries in the past just doesn't sit well with me.

Not for me. Not going all in does not mean conceding. I believe they are entering a 7 year stretch where they are going to have a better than 1 in 30 chance of winning it all. I will take a 5% chance every year over an 8% chance for two years followed by years of 3%.

Problem is, those future years are much more uncertain, even in your conservative 5% plan. Three years from now, your chances might have dropped by more than 3% just due to things beyond your control.

 

This is not an argument for going crazy all-in at any particular point, just pointing out that the confidence level of immediate plans is a lot higher than long-range plans.

Or he plays out his arb years and looks to make 300M+ in free agency while the Twins are out Kepler, Berrios, Jay and Gordon who all have pretty high ceilings. Selling the farm and betting on one player, especially a player with arm injuries in the past just doesn't sit well with me.

If Fernandez is that good, he's probably providing some pretty compelling benefits over his 3 years here. And you could always trade him again if you aren't competing in year 3 for whatever reason. Heck, if he establishes good health here for a year or two you might be able to better that return in trade.