Article: Struggles Have Highlighted Twins Correct Deadline Decisions

[JB_Iowa]

 

That was the question.  Just because you don't like the answer doesn't mean it isn't the answer to your question.  When you're trading prospects, the only bad thing that happens is if the prospects you traded end up being studs.  Say we traded for Price and Cespedes, and they led us to the wild card game, where we lost.  Meanwhile, the prospects I mentioned become stars, and re-launch the TIgers franchise--that's bad.

 

 

 

But at some point you have to take a risk .... otherwise you are just paralyzed.

 

I'm not even advocating that the Twins should have made big moves but doing nothing (or virtually nothing) IS just as big a risk as doing something.

[jimmer]

 

But at some point you have to take a risk .... otherwise you are just paralyzed.

 

I'm not even advocating that the Twins should have made big moves but doing nothing (or virtually nothing) IS just as big a risk as doing something.

Ryan hasn't ever done anything significant at the deadline.  When we were serious playoff contenders, when we weren't.  Never.  It's a trend.  

 

And it's funny because both ways can be defended for him to do nothing.  If we are serious contenders, why change anything, we are fine.  If we aren't serious contenders, why bother getting better players when we likely aren't going to the playoffs.  

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Yes, I do think that some of the players reacted negatively.  There were several (Dozier, Hunter primarily) who made it clear they hoped for help at the deadline.  And yes, they happen to be ones who wouldn't have lost their jobs but they are also the Team Leaders.

 

Dozier needs to stop complaining, and realize that he's been a big part of the problem ever since the AS break.  Slashing .203/.276/.406 while striking out 34% of the time isn't getting it done.  That's the issue with Dozier and his one tool--if he's not getting XBH, he's a replacement level player.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

But at some point you have to take a risk .... otherwise you are just paralyzed.

 

I'm not even advocating that the Twins should have made big moves but doing nothing (or virtually nothing) IS just as big a risk as doing something.

 

With that logic, the risk is equal between doing something and doing nothing.  Therefore, doing nothing is no more of a risk than doing something.  Ask San Diego how taking a risk has turned out for them.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Dozier needs to stop complaining, and realize that he's been a big part of the problem ever since the AS break.  Slashing .203/.276/.406 while striking out 34% of the time isn't getting it done.  That's the issue with Dozier and his one tool--if he's not getting XBH, he's a replacement level player.

 

except for defense and base running, sure......but isn't that true of every player, take away his biggest skill, and he's not worth as much?

[JB_Iowa]

 

With that logic, the risk is equal between doing something and doing nothing.  Therefore, doing nothing is no more of a risk than doing something.  Ask San Diego how taking a risk has turned out for them.

 

It is a greater risk when it happens year after year.

 

If this were the first go-round when TR did nothing, the risk would be about equal but in this case, the risk of inaction just keeps piling up.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

except for defense and base running, sure......but isn't that true of every player, take away his biggest skill, and he's not worth as much?

 

You're right, I forgot about his -2.3 UZR/150--16th in the league.  I'll give you baserunning, although it's hard to make an impact on the basepaths when you're sipping Gatorade on the bench.

 

And yes, take away a player's biggest skill, and they become worth less.  But Dozier has become a black hole on offense--he's turned into Chris Carter.  All-stars and team leaders should have more than one skill propping up their value.  Miguel Sano isn't getting good pitches to hit, so he's talking walks.

[Mike Sixel]

I have no interest in discussing if Dozier is good or not......none.

[JB_Iowa]

To the best of my knowledge, Dozier hasn't been complaining.  In fact, I didn't hear much from players after the deadline.

 

I do think that the "team mentality" has been somewhat destroyed.  Guys are going to start worrying more about their individual stats than about the team overall.  That was one of the things about the team earlier this year.  They were a TEAM .... they are now starting to feel like a collection of individual statistics.

Edited August 6, 2015 by JB_Iowa

[amjgt]

So far, it's leaning toward bad deal:

 

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_05_chaafa_pbcafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb

 

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_08_02_prirok_pulrok_1&t=g_box

 

 

 

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

It is a greater risk when it happens year after year.

 

If this were the first go-round when TR did nothing, the risk would be about equal but in this case, the risk of inaction just keeps piling up.

 

That makes no sense whatsoever.  What you're in essence saying is that if TR doesn't make a trade for 10 years, the next trade he makes is much more likely to be a good one, since the risk of not acting is piling up.

 

I would argue that continuing to make moves piles up the risk just the same, as if the move fails, you have to make another move to fix that, and then maybe another move to fix that one.  For example, in 2010 Bill Smith took a risk.  Because he did, we're starting Kurt Suzuki at catcher this year and next, not Wilson Ramos.

[jimmer]

 

That makes no sense whatsoever.  What you're in essence saying is that if TR doesn't make a trade for 10 years, the next trade he makes is much more likely to be a good one, since the risk of not acting is piling up.

 

I would argue that continuing to make moves piles up the risk just the same, as if the move fails, you have to make another move to fix that, and then maybe another move to fix that one.  For example, in 2010 Bill Smith took a risk.  Because he did, we're starting Kurt Suzuki at catcher this year and next, not Wilson Ramos.

I thought we were starting Kurt Suzuki this year and next year because TR ridiculously thought he had turned some kind of corner offensively and re-signed him.

 

And we really need to get past the idea Ramos is some kind of stud.  He's not

Edited August 6, 2015 by jimmer

[USAFChief]

 

Dozier needs to stop complaining, and realize that he's been a big part of the problem ever since the AS break.  Slashing .203/.276/.406 while striking out 34% of the time isn't getting it done.  That's the issue with Dozier and his one tool--if he's not getting XBH, he's a replacement level player.

You don't think you're exercising a bit of circular logic here?

 

"Players have to be depressed that the front office didn't help them."

 

"That's ridiculous.  BTW, Dozier has sucked since the front office did nothing."

[tobi0040]

 

I thought we were starting Kurt Suzuki this year and next year because TR ridiculously thought he had turned some kind of corner offensively and re-signed him.

 

And we really need to get past the idea Ramos is some kind of stud.  He's not

 

He is not. and he is having a tough year.  But his career .725 OPS, while not stud is >>>>>>what we have now.

Edited August 6, 2015 by tobi0040

[jimmer]

 

He is not. and he is having a tough year.  But his career .725 OPS, while not stud is >>>>>>what we have now.

I agree his career OPS is better than what we have now, but that has a lot to do with who TR decided to be our catcher this year and next.  There's nothing to say he couldn't have addressed the situation differently. It's been 5 seasons since Ramos left, it's not why we specifically have Suzuki now.

 

Additionally, we used to have a catcher that people complained about his games played.  Look at Ramos over the last three years going into this year. 25, 78, 88 games played. He's played over 88 games exactly once.

[Kwak]

 

With that logic, the risk is equal between doing something and doing nothing.  Therefore, doing nothing is no more of a risk than doing something.  Ask San Diego how taking a risk has turned out for them.

You could have said the same about Toronto--last year--and now look at them?  Remember when darn near everybody criticized KC for 'going all-in' to acquire Shields?---and...?  How often was Detroit criticized for "all-in"--yet they emerged from the ashes of the late 90s-early '00's to 5 ALDS including 2 WS appearances.  And people are actually going to watch their games in Detroit!  Taking risks to succeed is "risky".  Alternately, a team can sit on its hands, control payroll, and play in a near empty stadium--and still make a profit!

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

You don't think you're exercising a bit of circular logic here?

 

"Players have to be depressed that the front office didn't help them."

 

"That's ridiculous.  BTW, Dozier has sucked since the front office did nothing."

 

The All Star break was on July 14, and 12 games were played after that and before the trading deadline.  Are you saying Dozier foresaw the lack of action by the FO, and pre-emptively became depressed?

[jimmer]

 

The All Star break was on July 14, and 12 games were played after that and before the trading deadline.  Are you saying Dozier foresaw the lack of action by the FO, and pre-emptively became depressed?

Are you saying that foreseeing the lack of action was a difficult task? Cause, yeah, not so much :-)

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I thought we were starting Kurt Suzuki this year and next year because TR ridiculously thought he had turned some kind of corner offensively and re-signed him.

 

And we really need to get past the idea Ramos is some kind of stud.  He's not

 

We're starting Suzuki because we have no better options, either before the season started, or now.  And while Ramos isn't a stud, he's certainly better than Suzuki (Suzuki has a 58 wRC+ and -.3 WAR, Ramos is 71 wRC+ and .4 WAR).

[jimmer]

 

We're starting Suzuki because we have no better options, either before the season started, or now.  And while Ramos isn't a stud, he's certainly better than Suzuki (Suzuki has a 58 wRC+ and -.3 WAR, Ramos is 71 wRC+ and .4 WAR).

All this has all been covered including the part that said it's been 5 seasons since Ramos left and there's been plenty of time to address the catcher position.  Suzuki isn't starting for us now because Smith traded Ramos.  Smith didn't make Ryan sign Suzuki last year nor did he make him re-sign him for two years. That's all Ryan.  He had plenty of time to address the problem correctly.  The closest thing to true that could be said is that Ramos might have been our starting catcher right now if Smith hadn't traded him. Cause that's all we know for sure.  Then again, Ryan might have done something differently in the last 4 years and he still might not be our catcher.

[savvyspy]

I don't for one second believe Ryan was using patience as a strategy. There isn't evidence he can do anything but sit on his hands at the deadline. Every season its new rationalization for not being a seller when the team blows and doing nothing when the team is in the playoff hunt. That pattern does more to explain ineptitude than being a savvy GM.

 

Your point is valid. It made no sense to trade valuable assets when the numbers suggested the team was playing way over its head and was ripe for a correction.

 

The fact that the correct move was the one the Twins took has more to do with chance than purpose. Its a case of a broken clock being right twice a day. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

You could have said the same about Toronto--last year--and now look at them?  Remember when darn near everybody criticized KC for 'going all-in' to acquire Shields?---and...?  How often was Detroit criticized for "all-in"--yet they emerged from the ashes of the late 90s-early '00's to 5 ALDS including 2 WS appearances.  And people are actually going to watch their games in Detroit!  Taking risks to succeed is "risky".  Alternately, a team can sit on its hands, control payroll, and play in a near empty stadium--and still make a profit!

 

Yeah, they're in the second wild card spot--doesn't yet qualify as a success for me.  What if Tulo and Price both get hurt this week.  The Royals came close to missing the playoffs with Shields, but had a great run for sure.  Now Shields is gone--don't you think the Royals would like to have Odorizzi fronting their rotation right now?  As for Detroit, they didn't really take "risks".  Trading for a 25 year old Miguel Cabrera is hardly a risk.  Trading for a 29 year old David Price is hardly a risk.

 

I've never said the Twins should never trade, I've said they would have had to take such a huge risk in order to get a team to the Royals/Pirates/Cardinals/Yankees/Dodgers that I wasn't interested.  I'd rather keep my young nucleus together, and let them become the stars.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Are you saying that foreseeing the lack of action was a difficult task? Cause, yeah, not so much :-)

 

I'm saying that if Dozier was/is so convinced the Twins FO won't make the team better, why the hell did he sign his extension?  I understand he gave up no years of free agency, but he certainly could have made more in arbitration while playing in such an allegedly depressing locale.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah, they're in the second wild card spot--doesn't yet qualify as a success for me.  What if Tulo and Price both get hurt this week.  The Royals came close to missing the playoffs with Shields, but had a great run for sure.  Now Shields is gone--don't you think the Royals would like to have Odorizzi fronting their rotation right now?  As for Detroit, they didn't really take "risks".  Trading for a 25 year old Miguel Cabrera is hardly a risk.  Trading for a 29 year old David Price is hardly a risk.

 

I've never said the Twins should never trade, I've said they would have had to take such a huge risk in order to get a team to the Royals/Pirates/Cardinals/Yankees/Dodgers that I wasn't interested.  I'd rather keep my young nucleus together, and let them become the stars.

 

What if the young players don't turn out? There is risk there also, right?

[Kwak]

 

I'm saying that if Dozier was/is so convinced the Twins FO won't make the team better, why the hell did he sign his extension?  I understand he gave up no years of free agency, but he certainly could have made more in arbitration while playing in such an allegedly depressing locale.

He didn't--he signed up to his first year of free-agency.  In short he agreed to the value of his contract during "the controlled years" (arbitration).  It's sort of like buying insurance--he gets paid even if injured, or becomes "awful".

[jimmer]

 

What if the young players don't turn out? There is risk there also, right?

then we can just blame Bill Smith.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

What if the young players don't turn out? There is risk there also, right?

 

Of course there's risk.  There's risk both ways.  TR's job is to assess the relative levels of those risks, and act appropriately.  When you have a decent, but not good team, the prospect package it would take in multiple deals to move from decent to good or great is so large, the risk of watching Berrios/Kepler/Polanco/Stewart et al potentially star elsewhere outweighs the risk of not attempting to improve this club through trades.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Of course there's risk.  There's risk both ways.  TR's job is to assess the relative levels of those risks, and act appropriately.  When you have a decent, but not good team, the prospect package it would take in multiple deals to move from decent to good or great is so large, the risk of watching Berrios/Kepler/Polanco/Stewart et al potentially star elsewhere outweighs the risk of not attempting to improve this club through trades.

 

If this wasn't the 17th year where he acted this way, I'd have sympathy to this line of thinking.....

[USAFChief]

 

I'm saying that if Dozier was/is so convinced the Twins FO won't make the team better, why the hell did he sign his extension?  I understand he gave up no years of free agency, but he certainly could have made more in arbitration while playing in such an allegedly depressing locale.

Many of us here are disappointed in TR's actions this summer.  I myself, a pretty die hard fan, find myself a little less motivated to watch, and I LOVE watching the Twins.

 

Is is so difficult to imagine some of the players on the team may be disappointed too?  They felt like they had busted their ass, had given themselves a chance, but needed some help?  And then saw that need basically ignored by the front office?  

 

Players are human beings.  I can't imagine at least some of them NOT being disappointed, and perhaps pressing, or maybe unconsciously trying just a bit less hard.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Last time he was here, Hunter was pretty clear that this effects a team......