Article: Twins Are Poised For The Playoffs

[Ted Schwerzler]

We have officially hit the All-Star break, and while the stretch run is where the pretenders and contenders are sorted out, the Twins are currently one of the best teams in baseball. It feels odd to say, given what expectations were, and what results have been, but it rings absolutely true.At the break, Minnesota owns the second best record in the American League, and their own best mark since 2008. It's no longer too early to suggest the playoffs are in sight.

Forty-four, 40, 36, and 41, those are the win totals for Minnesota at the break over the last four seasons. This year, the number is 49. Each of those years, the Twins went on to lose 90 or more games. It's probably not fair to compare a winning team to those teams of futility, so take a look back to 2010 when Minnesota last won the AL Central with 94 wins. At the All-Star break, Ron Gardenhire's Twins checked in at 46-42, or behind their current pace, for those playing along at home.

 

Coming into the season, the Twins had plenty of question marks. They were viewed as a year or two from making their turnaround, Paul Molitor was a first -year manager, and the big free agent signing made to bolster the pitching staff was shelved before meaningful games even started. At the artificial halfway point, the Twins have answered more questions than they haven't, and it's now fair to start to wonder just how far they can climb.

Pitching was going to once again be something to monitor for Minnesota, having finished in the doldrums of major league baseball in virtually every pitching category in recent years. Changes needed to be made. As things stand, Minnesota owns the 15th best ERA in the big leagues, and both Kyle Gibson and Tommy Milone rank among the top 15 ERA leaders in the American League. Twins starters have combined for 789.2 IP as well as 45 quality starts, once again putting them right in the middle of the pack.

 

However, these results have been accomplished, generally, using the same techniques as the Twins have become synonymous with. Pitching to contact, Twins starters have allowed a .269 BAA (28th in MLB), and struck out just 537 batters (last in MLB). It's not smoke and mirrors, but rather pounding the strike zone and making opposing hitters beat them, a strategy that has thus far panned out.

At points this season, the Twins offense looked like it was in need of a boost. With Kennys Vargas and Oswaldo Arcia struggling, the pop has since come from a second basemen and a 40 year old. Brian Dozier is having an MVP- caliber season, and his 18 home runs put him on pace to be the first Twins player to reach 30 home runs since Josh Willingham in 2012. Torii Hunter has been every bit the defensive liability he was imagined to be, but his bat (14 HR 49 RBI 15 2B) has produced at a vintage level.

 

While winning, the Twins have also been afforded the opportunity to usher in the future. Eddie Rosario has played an excellent outfield for Minnesota, and his .284 average is among the best on the ballclub. Byron Buxton was able to debut prior to the All-Star break (and should be back not too long after it), and Miguel Sano has set the world on fire.

In fact, instead of needing to deal for another Kendrys Morales-type bat this season, the Twins traded with themselves by inserting Sano into the lineup. In his first 11 games, he's hit two home runs, driven in eight, doubled four times, and raced out to a .378/.489/.649 slash line. His power was expected to play, but Sano has been every bit the elite prospect he was billed to be.

 

Looking down the line at the rest of the season, the Twins future has become much more clear. With far fewer questions looming, they can focus on two key actions. First, the organization must make a trade for some bullpen help. So far, Molitor has pieced the back-end of his bullpen together, and it's starting to blow up big time.

Blaine Boyer has given the Twins more than they could have imagined, but he's on pace to be one of the most taxed relievers in all of baseball. Brian Duensing and Casey Fien have been up and down, and Minnesota has filled in the gaps with different pieces at a revolving door pace. In fact the only sure thing in the Twins pen is All-Star closer Glen Perkins. Having saved 28 of 28 opportunities, he owns a sparkling 1.21 ERA in 37.1 IP. Perkins' 8.68 K/9 is also among the best on the club, but he no doubt needs help.

 

Minnesota has one of the best farm system in the big leagues and dealing some depth for a quality pen arm is a must. Bringing in someone to act as a true setup man would bridge the gap from the starters to Perkins, and no doubt afford Molitor and Minnesota a few more late inning wins.

The second focus for the Twins is to view the postseason as their new reality. Every team sets that as a goal at the beginning of the year, or at least says thet do. Now for the first time in recent memory, the Twins are able to act on that. Key injuries to both the Royals and Tigers have opened a door that Minnesota must step through. Having played Kansas City and Detroit both to a 5-8 record, a recalibration of expectations needs to occur.

 

At 49-40, Minnesota is just 4.5 back of the Royals while being 4.5 clear of the Tigers. In the wild card race, Minnesota owns the top spot, and is three games clear of the Tampa Bay Rays. Keeping pace in the division with the Royals should no doubt be the goal, and it's hard to imagine the Central not sending two teams to play October baseball.

.500 would have been a great place for this Twins team to be this season,.Thanks to the start however, that mark is now in the rear view mirror. Minnesota is poised for the postseason, Target Field is electric once again, and the Twins hold a lot of the cards in their own hands. Buckle up, it's going to be a fun ride.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

 

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[COtwin]

I am all for getting some bullpen help, but not at the expense of any future pieces. I am not a fan of trading away people like Vargas or arcia, or anyone else with more value. This team is not a World Series contender and I can't help but think "Ramos" if we trade some of the future for something out farm system is supposedly loaded with. What is happening with Jay? I know he is being groomed for starting , but can he help us for the stretch run?

[jtkoupal]

I really don't know if this team has enough magic left to appear in October. I would love if it would, but the reality is that the Twins really aren't good at anything. The pitching has been much better, but there still isn't a true ace. We don't have a workhorse like many contenders have, and we have a terrible bullpen.

 

As for trade deadline options, I like Will Smith, I like Tyler Clippard, and to a certain extent, I like Joaquin Benoit. I would be willing to part with someone like a Jorge Polanco or an Adam Brett Walker type. We must part with some talent to get talent. 

 

I'm not interested in an outfield bat, though if they want to upgrade at shortstop or catcher, I am interested. 

 

What we have to avoid is bolstering our team to play 9 extra innings. We aren't going to catch the Royals. If we get in, it's a Wild Card. 

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

My hope is that no top 10 prospect is moved for a reliever. Only a few relievers would would warrant that haul (Davis, Betances, Chapman, Kimbrel). The first two aren't moving the next two are probably too expensive for the Twins.

 

Buxton will have a rehab assignment, probably at Rochester, when he's healthy again. If Hicks keeps progressing like he's done the past two weeks and Arcia is called up and mashes, there may not, dare I say, be room for him without a trade.

[SF Twins Fan]

Just curious...  How has Torii Hunter, "been every bit the defensive liability he was imagined to be?"  I don't understand this at all.  I've probably watched 90% of the games this season and he has made many of the same catches the average outfielder would make.  He's made 4 errors, has a .971 fielding % and has 2 outfield assists. If you're going to post don't just put your opinion in the article and actually use facts.  You lose all credibility when you just post your opinion.  

 

The Twins don't have to trade for bullpen help... They could go down to AAA and pull up some pitchers who have pitched very well this season.  In 18 appearances this season Taylor Rogers has a 3.19 ERA and a1.27 WHIP.  Has 115.2 IP, 2 complete games and only 30 BB compared to 82 K's.  Tyler Duffy has a 2.24 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP.  Has 64.1 IP, 1 CG, 1 shutout, and 17 BB to 50 K's.

 

Instead of just throwing prospects around they should bring up the wave of talent they still have down in the minor leagues.

[jimbo92107]

This Twins team isn't a flash in the pan, but it lacks the depth and experience to make a serious stab at a title. Once again, don't sell the farm before the harvest.

 

There are waves of good players and pitchers arriving within the next two years. Let this birth happen naturally, don't force it. Least of all, we don't want some expensive short-term rental relief pitchers that won't be around when the full harvest is done. This has a chance to become a powerhouse team for a decade. Let the young players make their entrance and learn to play together.

 

It's going to be a long, enjoyable ride.

[SF Twins Fan]

I agree 100% Jimbo.  As much as I'd love to see the Twins win the world series this season it's not going to happen.  Not this year.  Maybe in the next few but there is no reason to trade away good prospects... at least not yet.  Wait until next year when we know more about the SS prospects.  Which one has a better chance at becoming a stud and trade the others away.  Try and find a better catcher this offseason and some relief help.

[JustinCB]

What is happening with Jay? I know he is being groomed for starting , but can he help us for the stretch run?

 

ERA north of 8 so far. Less than 10 innings but not good, at least not yet.

[REPETE]

Couple points:  
1. Torii has been solid in the OF.  Not spectacular (the throw from RF to LF really showed his age), but certainly not worse than Arcia or others would've done.
 
2.  Trading away an expendable piece from the Minors for immediate Relief Pitching would be helpful on many fronts.  Perhaps this team is a few years away from serious contention, but before we become serious contenders, that growing process includes "Playoff Experience".  If giving up one prospect to get us to the playoffs, or even deeper into the playoff run, that's experience that benefits this team, and the future.  

3.  Any time you're talking playoffs after the All star break, you have to try.  How many times do you see a Cinderella team that's talked about being a force for years to come, and that run never repeats itself?

 

I'm not saying trade the whole future, but everyone keeps bringing up Ramos for Capp.  That was one horrible trade I hated at the time, but that was a trade for a supposed ace closer, not a decent setup relief guy.  The price shouldn't be nearly as high.   

[laloesch]

This team will fall flat on its face in the second half and wont make the playoffs.

[howieramone2]

This team will fall flat on its face in the second half and wont make the playoffs.

This team will go undefeated in the second half and win the World Series. That ties it up 1 to 1.

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

Just curious...  How has Torii Hunter, "been every bit the defensive liability he was imagined to be?"  I don't understand this at all.  I've probably watched 90% of the games this season and he has made many of the same catches the average outfielder would make.  He's made 4 errors, has a .971 fielding % and has 2 outfield assists. If you're going to post don't just put your opinion in the article and actually use facts.  You lose all credibility when you just post your opinion.  

 

The Twins don't have to trade for bullpen help... They could go down to AAA and pull up some pitchers who have pitched very well this season.  In 18 appearances this season Taylor Rogers has a 3.19 ERA and a1.27 WHIP.  Has 115.2 IP, 2 complete games and only 30 BB compared to 82 K's.  Tyler Duffy has a 2.24 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP.  Has 64.1 IP, 1 CG, 1 shutout, and 17 BB to 50 K's.

 

Instead of just throwing prospects around they should bring up the wave of talent they still have down in the minor leagues.

 

Torii stuggling in the outfield isn't understood by your eye test or by a fielding percentage. Errors and fielding percentage simply are a measure of the plays you do or don't make. Hunter is currently worth -5 DRS (defensive runs saved) and owns just a 2.8 UZR (ultimate zone rating). To put that in context for you, Hunter is on pace to be worth right around -10 DRS, or virtually equivalent to 2014 Oswaldo Arcia.

 

As far as Rogers and Duffey, both are currently starters. Rogers probably is a future bullpen arm, but Duffey was the AA Opening Day starter over a guy named Jose Berrios. He has put together a great season, and cheapening him a la Trevor May by patching him into the bullpen doesn't make sense.

[Willihammer]

 

 

As far as Rogers and Duffey, both are currently starters. Rogers probably is a future bullpen arm, but Duffey was the AA Opening Day starter over a guy named Jose Berrios. He has put together a great season, and cheapening him a la Trevor May by patching him into the bullpen doesn't make sense.

It makes sense to me. Promoting Duffey or Rogers to the MLB pen could easily cost a lower price (a roster spot) for a better player (esp. if the alternative is another over the hill veteran rental from the Padres). It does not cement his career irreversibly as a reliever. Phil Hughes is proof of that, as is 4/5 of the Cardinals rotation, and other starters around baseball. Not to mention that the Twins seem to believe there is some kind of relief-to-starter inefficiency that they have been crafting their draft strategy around for a couple years.

 

IMO they have to try at least one of their own guys in the pen before they bungle another trade for a "proven"  or "veteran" guy a la Matt Capps. They have the roster space.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Torii stuggling in the outfield isn't understood by your eye test or by a fielding percentage. Errors and fielding percentage simply are a measure of the plays you do or don't make. Hunter is currently worth -5 DRS (defensive runs saved) and owns just a 2.8 UZR (ultimate zone rating). To put that in context for you, Hunter is on pace to be worth right around -10 DRS, or virtually equivalent to 2014 Oswaldo Arcia.

 

As far as Rogers and Duffey, both are currently starters. Rogers probably is a future bullpen arm, but Duffey was the AA Opening Day starter over a guy named Jose Berrios. He has put together a great season, and cheapening him a la Trevor May by patching him into the bullpen doesn't make sense.

 

Umm, you realize that his 2.8 UZR puts him 6th in the entire league for right fielders?  Torii hasn't been gold glove caliber or anything, but he is miles better than anyone could have thought he'd be in the field.  Arcia, by contrast, has amassed a negative 2.7 WAR this year in only 146 innings.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

It makes sense to me. Promoting Duffey or Rogers to the MLB pen could easily cost a lower price (a roster spot) for a better player (esp. if the alternative is another over the hill veteran rental from the Padres). It does not cement his career irreversibly as a reliever. Phil Hughes is proof of that, as is 4/5 of the Cardinals rotation, and other starters around baseball. Not to mention that the Twins seem to believe there is some kind of relief-to-starter inefficiency that they have been crafting their draft strategy around for a couple years.

 

IMO they have to try at least one of their own guys in the pen before they bungle another trade for a "proven"  or "veteran" guy a la Matt Capps. They have the roster space.

 

There's also some guy named Johan Santana who started in the bullpen before transitioning to starter.  That one turned out pretty ok.

[Tibs]

 

Torii stuggling in the outfield isn't understood by your eye test or by a fielding percentage. Errors and fielding percentage simply are a measure of the plays you do or don't make. Hunter is currently worth -5 DRS (defensive runs saved) and owns just a 2.8 UZR (ultimate zone rating). To put that in context for you, Hunter is on pace to be worth right around -10 DRS, or virtually equivalent to 2014 Oswaldo Arcia.

 

As far as Rogers and Duffey, both are currently starters. Rogers probably is a future bullpen arm, but Duffey was the AA Opening Day starter over a guy named Jose Berrios. He has put together a great season, and cheapening him a la Trevor May by patching him into the bullpen doesn't make sense.

I don't see how it is cheapening him when it is a short term thing. I would much rather try Duffey, Rogers, Meyer, or other AAA guys in the pen before going out and trading prospects for a reliever. Trading anyone of value at AA or AAA this year for a reliever just doesn't make sense, and what kind of reliever are you going to get trading prospects below that? Obviously it depends on the trade, but I'm not in favor of trading a prospect for a relief pitcher this year.

[laloesch]

 

Torii stuggling in the outfield isn't understood by your eye test or by a fielding percentage. Errors and fielding percentage simply are a measure of the plays you do or don't make. Hunter is currently worth -5 DRS (defensive runs saved) and owns just a 2.8 UZR (ultimate zone rating). To put that in context for you, Hunter is on pace to be worth right around -10 DRS, or virtually equivalent to 2014 Oswaldo Arcia.

 

As far as Rogers and Duffey, both are currently starters. Rogers probably is a future bullpen arm, but Duffey was the AA Opening Day starter over a guy named Jose Berrios. He has put together a great season, and cheapening him a la Trevor May by patching him into the bullpen doesn't make sense.

Plus Duffey is a southpaw and has decent stuff for a lefty.  Low to mid 90's.  The next two years will be very interesting to watch.  Lot of good arms at AAA waiting to a chance and a rotation clogged with overpriced, overhyped veterans (Nolasco, Santana & Pelfrey).

[SF Twins Fan]

 

As far as Rogers and Duffey, both are currently starters. Rogers probably is a future bullpen arm, but Duffey was the AA Opening Day starter over a guy named Jose Berrios. He has put together a great season, and cheapening him a la Trevor May by patching him into the bullpen doesn't make sense.

Putting them into the bullpen is a perfect way to get them experience in the SHOW. Next season they either stay in the bullpen, go back to AAA to start if the Twins have a full rotation or prove they belong in the Twins rotation.  Many good teams around the league do that.  As Cap'n Piranha pointed out the Twins did the exact same thing Johan Santana, and he turned out to have a pretty solid career.  Plus, as you pointed out Rogers is probably a future bullpen arm anyway.  

 

Next season the Twins rotation will have: Santana, Gibson, Hughes and Milone for sure.  May, Meyer, Berrios, Rogers and Duffy are all options for the 5th rotation spot.  You might as well get Rogers and Duffy some experience this season in the majors via the bullpen, because those are 3 good players those two are going to have to jump to be able to make the Twins rotation.

[spinowner]

 

First, the organization must make a trade for some bullpen help.

Keeping pace in the division with the Royals should no doubt be the goal...

The title of this article refers to being poised for the playoffs. But these two statements make me think that OTB has being poised to win the WS in mind when this was written.

I don't think the Twins should take any extraordinary steps to try to win the WS this year. Having the second best record in the league is a pleasant surprise, a happy accident. But the vision of building a perennial contender should not be derailed by trying to win it all this year. I'm in favor of trading surplus major league parts for needed major league parts but I'm not in favor of trading a promising prospect for anyone.

[stringer bell]

 

Plus Duffey is a southpaw and has decent stuff for a lefty.  Low to mid 90's.  The next two years will be very interesting to watch.  Lot of good arms at AAA waiting to a chance and a rotation clogged with overpriced, overhyped veterans (Nolasco, Santana & Pelfrey).

Duffey is a right hander. Rogers is a left hander with dramatic L/R splits.