Article: Twins Outfield Of The Future Begins

[Ted Schwerzler]

Last night former first-round draft pick Aaron Hicks got the call from the Minnesota Twins. While it isn't his first rodeo in the big leagues, there's no doubt this time is what might be the most important.After playing 27 games at the Triple-A level and batting .336/.415/.561, Minnesota saw fit to improve their outfield by bringing Hicks back into the fold. With more weighing on Hicks this time around, there's also plenty of reason to believe that this time things will click.

 

Although he was the 14th overall pick in the 2008 draft, Hicks took a more accelerated route to the big leagues than would have been expected. Despite playing five seasons in the minors, his best season at the plate saw him hit .318/.409/.491 in rookie ball immediately after being drafted. A strong 2013 spring training, combined with the Twins dealing both Denard Span and Ben Revere, had Hicks being promoted directly from Double-A. After 150 games of struggle at the big league level, it was apparent a new approach was needed with Hicks.

 

Last season, the Twins demoted Hicks from the major leagues to Double-A. Playing in 43 games for Double-A New Britain in 2014, Hicks batted .297/.404/.466 and once again looked the part of an exciting prospect. Although he didn't get a September call-up in 2014, Hicks was promoted to Triple-A Rochester, and for the first time in his career, played through Double- and Triple-A in succession.

 

Expected to come in to the 2015 season with the starting center field job his to lose once again, the Twins opted to go a different direction. With returns in spring training not being where the club wanted, Paul Molitor brought both Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson north. A confusing decision at the time, there's no doubt that Hicks made the most of his time in Triple-A. Abusing opposing pitchers while being the offensive catalyst for the Red Wings in 2015, Hicks has earned his most recent promotion back to the big leagues.

 

Now in line for the starting center field role for the foreseeable future, the Twins are hopeful they can begin to watch their outfield of the future unfold. Hicks will immediately bring not only an offensive boost but also defensive help to a lackluster outfield. He presents opportunity for a Twins team in a good spot to reach even new heights. The Twins hope is that Hicks will play his way into their future plans.

 

There's little doubt that Byron Buxton is eventually going to take over the center field role for the Twins. He's the number one prospect in all of baseball, and he's looked the part at every level. Buxton and Hicks are mutually exclusive however, in that the success of each of them would be huge for the Twins, though that would necessitate one of them changing position. Casting aside Hicks' previous struggles (remember, he's in uncharted territory now, having excelled at each level of the farm system in order), a solid start for Hicks makes him an ideal corner fit for the Twins. Hicks has a plus arm, and could profile nicely in right field down the line.

 

Minnesota is no doubt enjoying the early success that the 2015 season has brought them, but this team is being built to contend for years to come. The hope is no doubt that an outfield of Oswaldo Arcia, Byron Buxton and Aaron Hicks would be the configuration for many years to come. Adding Eddie Rosario as a fourth option would only further the talent that the Twins could employ out of the gate next season.

 

The Minnesota Twins, Aaron Hicks, and most everyone else sees this as a last shot for the former first-round pick, but smart money may be on the player. Hicks has shown plenty of reason to believe in him, and for the sake of an improved outfield going forward, the hope would be that it all comes full circle.

 

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[spinowner]

"The hope is no doubt that an outfield of Oswaldo Arcia, Byron Buxton and Aaron Hicks would be the configuration for many years to come. Adding Eddie Rosario as a fourth option would only further the talent that the Twins could employ out of the gate next season."

 

Hicks' cannon in RF will make runners think twice about trying to advance to third base. All he has to do is find a way to hit at least .250. Arcia's defensive deficiencies in LF are not a big issue if he can hit 30+ dingers a year. Rosario would be an excellent fourth OF and, we hope, a satisfactory back-up 2B. And I hear that the other guy is a natural-born CF. If this comes to fruition no team will have a better outfield.

[Vance_Christianson]

I think Arcia gets traded to be honest. He's injured too much, and defense is below average, and we already have 2 DH's then in Hunter and Vargas.

[spinowner]

 

I think Arcia gets traded to be honest. He's injured too much, and defense is below average, and we already have 2 DH's then in Hunter and Vargas.

He is barely 24 years old. David Ortiz can serve as an example of what can happen if you give up on someone too soon. Ortiz was 27 when the Twins and every other team except the Red Sox gave up on him. At this stage I'd have to get a very solid pitcher in return to give up Arcia in a trade.

[Gene Larkin]

Even in the minors Hicks has not shown he can hit with enough power to justify being a MLB corner outfielder. Once Buxton arrives Hicks is a fourth outfielder at best.

[TKGuy]

I doubt Arcia gets traded at this point.  But once again, Ortiz was hurt at all times and nobody signed him until the end of spring training for $1 million, and Ortiz blossomed, sure we had him, but he never produced for us

[dougkoebernick]

 

Even in the minors Hicks has not shown he can hit with enough power to justify being a MLB corner outfielder. Once Buxton arrives Hicks is a fourth outfielder at best.

 

While I hope Hicks hits like a corner outfielder I've been thinking the same as you and that he would be the 4th outfielder and Rosario would be in RF.

[dbminn]

Aaron Hicks is only 25 years old, young enough to learn to be a decent major league hitter. He has shown he can hit AAA pitching. Hicks now needs at-bats to prove his worth in the majors, for better or worse.

 

Where I disagree is the fielding ability of Hicks. He has been awful during his first to attempts at the major league level. On the other hand, Robinson has been excellent in the field. Hicks should not get at-bats if he can't field any better than his last two tries with the Twins.

 

Developing players at the major-league level has to be done in the context of the team. Our young pitchers (starters and relievers) are all affected by defense. Let's give them a chance to succeed as well.

 

With Arcia and Hunter at the corners, it's critical that the CF be able to field his position with range and consistency. If Hicks plays poor defense, DFA him and let Rosario have a spot on the roster. If his defense is solid the first few weeks, give him time to develop his offense.

 

 

 

 

[DJL44]

"The hope is no doubt that an outfield of Oswaldo Arcia, Byron Buxton and Aaron Hicks would be the configuration for many years to come"

 

I think the only sure thing for years to come is Byron Buxton. Rosario was mentioned but his upside is that of a starter. Kepler, Walker and Harrison are all performing rather well in AA this year and any one of them could be up as soon as 2017. They're going to end the drought of outfield talent with a flood.

[Physics Guy]

I disagree with both posts with regards to Hicks playing a corner OF position.  The average LF in MLB last year had a .702 OPS and the average RF was .768.  I think Hicks should be able to be somewhere in that range.  He would also bring an above average glove to the corner OF.  His OPS may be more heavily weighted towards OBP, but that is not necessarily a bad thing.  We have a number of potential power hitters who may not be great OBP guys.  Hopefully Hicks balances that. 

 

Here are the OPS for the primary LF/RF for each of the playoff teams in the AL:

Bal:  .694/.729

Det:  .912/.765

KC:  .783, .710

LAA:  .745/.776

Oak:  .767/.763

[Cap'n Piranha]

I'm so tired of the cliche "player x doesn't hit enough for y position". When it comes to defensive positions, as long as a guy can field it, and not be an offensive black hole, I'm fine with it. After all, if offensive production is what matters for defensive production, we can greenlight Vargas for right field.

[halfchest]

Before we start talking trades and returns lets give the guys a chance to sort things out first.  If all four young outfielders turn out to be above average players then we can start discussing trade scenarios. 

 

I'm a big fan of Hicks and hope he finally sticks.  I feel like his defense combined with patience is what can make him a valuable guy.  He doesn't have to tear the cover off the ball to have a high OBP, get steals, and play good defense.  Will he be an all star?  not likely but could he be a valuable corner guy that can be your backup CF? yes. 

 

He also brings value in a corner position in that he can be your backup CF allowing you to have more of an all bat/no defense 4th outfielder rather than a Jordan Schafer, mastroianni, etc. type.  Wouldn't take a lot for him to be a valuable guy, worst case he ends up as a better option for our 4th outfielder than picking up random AAAA players on waivers.   

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Even in the minors Hicks has not shown he can hit with enough power to justify being a MLB corner outfielder. Once Buxton arrives Hicks is a fourth outfielder at best.

I'm not sure where this idea comes from, that corner outfielders are all so powerful and a dominant offensive force.

 

In 2014, MLB RFers averaged a .142 ISO and a .715 OPS, and LFers .147 and .720.  Hicks has a career .172 ISO and .850 OPS at AA, and .159 and .814 at AAA, totaling over 1000 PAs at the two levels.

 

Will he be a star corner OF, offensively?  Likely not, but it is still well within the range of possibility that he could be at least close to an average one.

 

Fourth/platoon outfielder in a talented outfield is also not a bad thing.  The Twins teams from 2001-2004 usually had 4 outfielders with roughly league average or better OPS+ (not to mention 1987 and 1991 outside of Gladden -- including your namesake, Gene Larkin).

[Steve Lein]

 

Even in the minors Hicks has not shown he can hit with enough power to justify being a MLB corner outfielder. Once Buxton arrives Hicks is a fourth outfielder at best.

 

I understand this argument, but it's also one you can poke holes in.

 

You can get power in your lineup from wherever it shows up, it doesn't HAVE TO BE from a corner outfielder. It should depend on how your roster is constructed. Maximizing and utilizing what you have, not pigeon-holing positions into what is the "accepted/expected norm," is how you build a winner when you're a team like the Twins.

 

The future might have Sano at 3B/1B/DH, Vargas at 1B/DH, Dozier at 2B, Arcia in LF/DH, Buxton in CF, Plouffe at 3B/wherever... It strikes me as odd in this scenario that Hicks would be required or expected to have power.

 

 

[Steve Lein]

 

 

I think Arcia gets traded to be honest. He's injured too much, and defense is below average, and we already have 2 DH's then in Hunter and Vargas.

 

Been saying this over and over, but I've never thought Arcia was a logical fit for this roster, even though I love the potential in his bat. I'm likely in a large minority, but I was advocating to trade him two years ago because you could see this exact scenario of too many DH's looming, and he was peaking in value in my opinion.

 

The potential of HR power too often overshadows the deficiencies of a player in the eyes of fans if you ask me, and you point out his.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

Assuming all pans out with Hicks, Buxton, Rosario and Arcia - something has to give. It is way too early to write off any of these four as "fourth outfielders".  They all should be considered everyday players.  

 

One great advantage of having a stacked minor league system is their value as trade chips.   I expect that full rebuild will include a balanced team of experienced veterans and talented younger players. 

 

The Myers trade for Davis and Shields in Kansas City is a perfect example of what we should expect from the Twins.  

 

It seems to me that one of these outfielders will be playing elsewhere somewhere down the road.   What will be interesting is who the player will be and what it says about the type of team we construct.  

 

 

[Eephus]

 

"I think the only sure thing for years to come is Byron Buxton." 

Seems like guys rated this highly by almost everyone rarely flop. If Byron stays healthy, he will be a star. The rest might work out. Hope so.

[Shane Wahl]

It would be nice to see Rosario-Hicks-Robinson together to start tonight's game. Just. See. What. Defense. Can. Mean. For. A. Game. Please.

 

Please?

[Shane Wahl]

 

Assuming all pans out with Hicks, Buxton, Rosario and Arcia - something has to give. It is way too early to write off any of these four as "fourth outfielders".  They all should be considered everyday players.  

 

One great advantage of having a stacked minor league system is their value as trade chips.   I expect that full rebuild will include a balanced team of experienced veterans and talented younger players. 

 

The Myers trade for Davis and Shields in Kansas City is a perfect example of what we should expect from the Twins.  

 

It seems to me that one of these outfielders will be playing elsewhere somewhere down the road.   What will be interesting is who the player will be and what it says about the type of team we construct.  

 

Well, they can clear a DH spot for Arcia, if they want to do so. I don't know what is going to happen there. I get the impression that they like Vargas the best of Vargas-Arcia-Pinto, but each one has some pros and cons factoring in their favor or against it. I really thought 2015 was Arcia's time to go ape . . . but damn it hasn't starter that way at all. Meanwhile, Vargas is starting to hit.

[Shane Wahl]

 

It would be nice to see Rosario-Hicks-Robinson together to start tonight's game. Just. See. What. Defense. Can. Mean. For. A. Game. Please.

 

Please?

 

Oops, forgot about Robinson's situation.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Oops, forgot about Robinson's situation.

The sentiment is good, though.  It will be nice to at least have the pieces to field a solid defensive outfield (even if we chose to keep starting an infielder in LF).

[Mike Sixel]

The meme that Arcia and Vargas are future David Ortiz.....I'm tired of that meme. We just don't know that at all.

 

Hicks SHOULD be a good fielder, but he has not shown that at all in his first 2 stints. I don't know why people keep typing that he is/will be for sure.

[Vanimal46]

Much like others have mentioned, I am not sold on Arcia as an OF option in the future. Ideally I'd like to see Rosario-Buxton-Hicks for the future. Arcia seems to be too much of a head case this early in his career. The bat potential is there, but the guy shows no desire to be a serviceable OF. He could be a DH option, but we also have Vargas, Hunter, and Escobar who can fill that role. I don't know if Arcia just grew a big ego from hitting 20+ bombs in his rookie year, but he is certainly not consistent enough at the plate to forgive his bone headed mistakes in the field.

[Danchat]

 

Been saying this over and over, but I've never thought Arcia was a logical fit for this roster, even though I love the potential in his bat. I'm likely in a large minority, but I was advocating to trade him two years ago because you could see this exact scenario of too many DH's looming, and he was peaking in value in my opinion.

 

The potential of HR power too often overshadows the deficiencies of a player in the eyes of fans if you ask me, and you point out his.

Reminds me of a couple of guys named David Ortiz and Carlos Gomez. We need to develop Arcia and be patient, and he will keep hitting eventually. Unless we get a great trade offer for him, I keep Oswaldo.

 

Also, with the DH position getting clogged up, it's probably time to consider trading Josmil Pinto. The Twins aren't interested at him being on the major league roster and there's got to be a few MLB teams who would want a young and talented bat.

[Gene Larkin]

Not to belabor the point, but in all or parts of eight minor league seasons, Hicks has a total of 41 HRs with a .426 SLG and .806 OPS. In comparison, Rosario, who I don't consider a major power hitter, has 60 HRs with a .480 SLG and .820 OPS in all or parts of six minor league seasons. Like Hicks, Rosario is a plus defender in the corners.

[Rosterman]

Let's just say that the Twins may, again, have riches beyond compare (like when we had 84 centerfielders and traded two of them for three pitchers).

 

But they are all prospects. Have no idea if Buxton will be...ahem...another Hicks. Of Walker can not strikeout every other at bat. If Kepler doesn't run out of options before he runs out of minor league levels to play. If Arcia IS the next David Ortiz, and how much do the Twins spend to find out. Throw in the Sano issue (third base or outfield).

 

But we won't know until everyone has some time in the big leagues.

[Linus]

No worries, everybody.  This will all sort itself out as out of all the guys being mentioned, we will be lucky to find 4 good MLB players to man the three outfield spots and DH.  Its kind of naive to think few if any of these guys won't make it.  That's why you cultivate a deep farm system so you can throw a whole bunch against the wall.....

 

It might be an interesting thread to start the "Bust List" and people can lay odds on which of the "top" prospects flame out.  I won't start that thread because I am enjoying the positivity of winning baseball too much.

[spinowner]

 

The meme that Arcia and Vargas are future David Ortiz.....I'm tired of that meme. We just don't know that at all.

 

Hicks SHOULD be a good fielder, but he has not shown that at all in his first 2 stints. I don't know why people keep typing that he is/will be for sure.

Try to be more positive

[mickeymental]

 

I doubt Arcia gets traded at this point.  But once again, Ortiz was hurt at all times and nobody signed him until the end of spring training for $1 million, and Ortiz blossomed, sure we had him, but he never produced for us

ortiz had an .839 ops (120 ops+) in 466 plate appearances during his last year with the twins (2002), along with an .809 ops (108 ops+) for his entire time with the team (1693 plate appearances).

[jmlease1]

 

Been saying this over and over, but I've never thought Arcia was a logical fit for this roster, even though I love the potential in his bat. I'm likely in a large minority, but I was advocating to trade him two years ago because you could see this exact scenario of too many DH's looming, and he was peaking in value in my opinion.

 

The potential of HR power too often overshadows the deficiencies of a player in the eyes of fans if you ask me, and you point out his.

 

I'm absolutely baffled by the sudden desire to dump Arcia. He's got 30 HR potential, he's young, and he's cheap. Sure, he'd bring a big haul of prospects in return but that's not what the team needs right now.

 

Also, the idea that the team would choose to pay Hunter to DH over keeping Arcia would be a fireable offense. Hunter might have another year left in the tank after this one, but he's not in the long term plans of any team. Arcia certainly should be.

 

If Hicks can show effectiveness from the LH side of the plate, he's going to stick (even if he has a few brain farts in the field or on the basepaths). Arcia just needs to calm down at the plate again and he should be an effective LF. Hunter will get us through this season in RF and Robinson makes for a reasonable 4th OF this year.

 

But the future is an OF rotation of Buxton, Arcia, Hicks, and Rosario. That should be an exciting prospect for a lot of reasons: there should be plenty of offense, even if Arcia stays below average overall it should be a fine defensive alignment, and it's going to be cheap for some time. Rosario should be a great fit as a 4th OF.

 

Look, Arcia isn't great in LF, but he'll be able to get by out there. There's no need to look at moving him to DH any time soon. But frankly, it's a good thing that there are guys in the minors that are putting pressure on people in the majors. That means you have depth to guard against injury. That means you're not promoting guys too early any more out of desperation (Hicks). And it means you can trade assets from a position of strength to keep the minors strong.

 

Arcia isn't going anywhere unless he gets too expensive AND doesn't fit in the OF any longer.