Article: Twins Reduce Clarity With Roster Cuts

[Ted Schwerzler]

This morning, first year manager Paul Molitor announced the next handful of roster cuts for the Minnesota Twins. As the team whittles down its roster to 25 players prior to opening day a week from Monday, the group of Fort Myers is going to get smaller. With 31 players now left in camp, Molitor has six more players he must send packing. The latest round however may have caused more confusion than clarity.Among the roster moves this morning, the Minnesota Twins elected to send out position players Eddie Rosario and Aaron Hicks. Both outfielders will head to Triple-A Rochester to begin the 2015 season. Relief pitcher Mark Hamburger was also optioned, as well as starter Trevor May. Both pitchers will also head to the Red Wings. With the moves, it was also announced that Tommy Milone would open as the Twins fifth and final starter, with Mike Pelfrey transitioning to the bullpen.

No matter how you break it down, Saturday was by far the most integral day of roster shuffling the Twins have seen thus far. With the plethora of decisions made, the roster is taking shape. That being said, there's no doubt that a few of the moves made cause confusion.

 

Starting with the outfield, particularly center field, both Hicks and Rosario were sent packing. Thus far during the spring, we have heard that neither Hicks nor Rosario would stick with the club in a rotational capacity. Either one would be named the starter or both would be sent packing. The curious part of the equation is that those sentiments seemed to be in unison with one another. It was thought that either Rosario or Hicks would start, as it never appeared likely that Jordan Schafer or Shane Robinson were viable candidates.

 

That brings us to where we are now. The Twins are heading into 2015 with opportunity to outperform expectations. No one is banking on them being a playoff team, but if all things break right, they could squeak in. That being said, the upcoming season is about figuring out who you have to pair with the arrival of the talented youth on the way. Rosario still very much remains of that latter group, but the problem is Aaron Hicks.

 

Hicks, a former first-round pick for the Twins, has struggled mightily at the major league level. After an impressive 2013 spring training, he was promoted to the starting role from Double-A, despite being more of a tools prospect than in the refined category of a Byron Buxton. Last year, for the first time in his career, a demotion allowed him to progress through both the Double-A and Triple-A levels. He did so while hitting for average, getting on base, and playing solid centerfield defense. Today's move suggest the Twins aren't looking to substantiate that at the major league level and the big question is why? Figuring out what Hicks has to give you prior to turning Buxton and Rosario loose seems to be an integral thing to unlock. Doing so out of the gate with a strong end to the 2014 season made the most sense. Now it would appear the Twins have created more questions than answers.

 

In moving on from Hicks to start the season, Molitor is giving the center field job to Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson. He has said he will "play matchups" but that it won't be a straight platoon situation. While that's great in theory, by and large, that is what will take place. The problem there is that a platoon is designed to allow a batter to exploit his talents against a certain type of pitcher.

 

Neither Robinson nor Schafer possess any real ability at the plate. Schafer owns a .229 career average, and was under the Mendoza line last season before coming over from the Braves. Sure he hit .285 for the Twins, but there's no way the production is sustainable. As an outfielder owning a UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) of -8.4, he's not someone you ideally want starting in center, either.

 

On the other side of the equation, Robinson fooled no one with a breakout season at the plate. He spent much of 2014 in Triple-A for the Cardinals. His career UZR of 7.8 is indicative of his billing as a defensive outfielder, but his career average suggests he's virtually a guaranteed out as well. At the end of the day, Molitor and the Twins appear to have looked past Aaron Hicks at this juncture and that may result in them getting another opportunity to do so.

 

Looking at the mound, the rotation has been set. As Mike Pelfrey heads to the pen with Milone rounding out the rotation, the Twins know who will be in the rotation to start the year. Pelfrey voiced displeasure, suggesting he was told he would be given a chance to start, and that he didn't believe he'd be destined for the pen. This morning, he went as far as saying if there are clubs who believe in him as a starter, he would be open to moving on.

 

To be fair, the competition likely never included Pelfrey from the get go. While he posted a sub 2.00 ERA this spring, 13.2 innings were never going to be enough to provide any information that multiple years of bad starting pitching wouldn't overshadow. Trevor May pitched well, and despite his rough outing on Friday, he was always going to be in an uphill battle. Milone is a proven commodity and pitched well on a solid Oakland team. Minnesota should expect him to return to that form this season.

 

Despite being upset about his new role, Pelfrey actually could extend his career this way. With the ability to perhaps push the radar gun to around 97 in a less stamina-related role, he could overpower hitters to a greater extent. With Wade Davis as the prime example, if Pelfrey can follow that path and become even close to Davis' level, the Twins stand to gain a lot with this decision. Should Palfrey be focused on starting, the Twins could look to the Mets, Blue Jays, and maybe even the Red Sox as options as trade partners. The problem is that a bad starting pitcher is probably going to net them less value in a trade than the value of finding out what they have by having him relieve first.

 

At the end of Saturday, we know a lot more about how the Twins will look when they head north. Some of it is easy to agree with (sorry Pelf, the pen is home now), and some doesn't make sense (Hicks now becomes a bigger question mark than he was before). As the Twins embark on their last week in Florida, look for the backup catcher role to be determined and Eduardo Nunez to continue to be evaluated.

Let's hope we aren't having another frustrating discussion involving Kennys Vargas later this week. The Twins are at the mercy of injury when it comes to Josmil Pinto, and if they have to bring Chris Herrmann north because of it, so be it. That being said, lets shoot for a bit higher ceiling with the rest of the decisions, all right brain trust?

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[Twodogs]

I wonder how many games Santana will start in CF with Escobar at SS??

[Voltaire]

Palfrey and Malone are my favorite.

[DuluthFan]

The reason Hicks is at AAA is because Schafer is a better fielder and hitter than him right now. If Schafer hits anywhere between his career average of .229 and last year's Twins average of .285, he beats Hick's career average. Hicks can stay down at AAA and earn his way back on the team. If Buxton or Rosario skips ahead of him, so be it.

Not all prospects and young players can play at the major league level. He may be one of them.

 

 

On an unrelated topic, It's too bad spell check doesn't work on players' names. The article went from Milone to Malone and back and forth between Pelfrey and Palfrey several times. I wonder if that is something the site could arrange to take care of or if proof reading by the writer is recommended.

[Homer Hanky]

Why can't Hicks just be the 4th outfielder starting next year... and Rosario should learn to play right field unless they plan to move Arcia back there... Thoughts? 

 

[Paul Pleiss]

Why can't the Twins just be the Washington Nationals?

 

I don't agree with most of the moves the Twins made over the weekend. I will not say they are wrong (well, at least not in this comment), but I do not agree. I will not say they are idiots, because they have a considerable amount of data I don't have access to, and money invested in this team, but damn, it sure doesn't look like the best club they could have leaving Fort Myers.

 

Bah humbug.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

Welcome to TR/PM Twins. I think the moves show a great deal of clarity .

 

The decision to option Hicks/Rosario in favor of Robinson/Schaefer is a move to invest in reliable assets over potential. Robinson's defense and Schaefer's speed give something for Molitor to work with everyday. While Rosario/Hicks provide bigger upsides in the long run, Molitor has no idea what he will get from either of them on any given day.

 

For the past 2 springs the Twins have thrown Hicks out there everyday and hoped for the best. The new TR/PM Twins are abandoning that approach and instead are creating a lineup and game strategy based on what each player reliably brings to the lineup.

[Hrbowski]

 

Why can't the Twins just be the Washington Nationals?

 

Because if they did they would win.

[troyhobbs]

Neither Hicks/Rosario are a ton better than Schaefer/Robinson at the moment so maybe not the worst decision to start w/ the veterans and replace them with whitchever youngster starts rolling in AAA when the vets prove they don't have it...? Funny that Pelfrey thinks the twins owe him something. Man up and throw out of the pen.

[USAFChief]

Welcome to TR/PM Twins. I think the moves show a great deal of clarity .

The decision to option Hicks/Rosario in favor of Robinson/Schaefer is a move to invest in reliable assets over potential. Robinson's defense and Schaefer's speed give something for Molitor to work with everyday. While Rosario/Hicks provide bigger upsides in the long run, Molitor has no idea what he will get from either of them on any given day.

For the past 2 springs the Twins have thrown Hicks out there everyday and hoped for the best. The new TR/PM Twins are abandoning that approach and instead are creating a lineup and game strategy based on what each player reliably brings to the lineup.

Schafer reliably has brought .229/.311/.310. He's 28

 

Robinson reliably has brought .231/.303/.308. He's 30.

 

Hicks has reliably brought .201/.293/.313. He's 25.

 

The only thing much different about the three is age.

[TheLeviathan]

Thanks Chief, that was a depressing post.  Yowza.

[Danchat]

At this point I am praying for a half-decent waiver wire player to fall into the hands of the Twins. We were able to turn around Sam Fuld and Jordan Schafer this year, so maybe we can get another one instead of having a Schafer/Robinson CF.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The new TR/PM Twins are abandoning that approach and instead are creating a lineup and game strategy based on what each player reliably brings to the lineup.

Nunez?

 

Loser of the 5th starter sweepstakes to the pen?

 

I am glad they finally sent down Hicks too, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Hicks was demoted midseason twice under Gardy, and Gardy was never given another CF alternative in spring training except Mastroianni (and Presley, briefly).

 

If the Twins had signed Fuld before the 2013 season, maybe he wins the job out of ST.

[rghrbek]

Read another preview of the AL Central (grantland).  Twins last place.  Fan Graphs is the most positive of all predicting web sites and has the twins at 75 wins.  Even Vegas is lower.

We all know there is 0 chance of the twins making the playoffs.  Fine, it's a process.  Still, some of their moves are just perplexing.  Nunez, Dunesing, Schafer, Robinson, Milone, Staufer, Pelfrey, Boyer.  Too much Terry Ryan imprint on this team.  Also admitting to looking at trades for bullpen and center field.  Again, this is a 70-75 win team....My hope is during the year we are mixing in some of the young kids for the players above, who have no chance being with us in two years.

[ken]

 

Why can't Hicks just be the 4th outfielder starting next year... and Rosario should learn to play right field unless they plan to move Arcia back there... Thoughts? 

If you have any hope for Hicks, it's best for him to play everyday in AAA than being a 4th outfielder.  If he plays well in AAA, I don't see anything stopping the Twins from bring him up to be the full time centerfielder.  If he sticks it up in AAA, there was no reason to give him a position in the majors even as a 4th outfielder.

[Kwak]

Hicks playing everyday in Rochester? For perhaps three months--and then what? Hicks's Spring has washed him out of the everyday-OFer category as far as the Minnesota Twins. It's time to move him before the clash with Buxton for playing time--even for a bus token.

[jimmer]

 

Read another preview of the AL Central (grantland).  Twins last place.  Fan Graphs is the most positive of all predicting web sites and has the twins at 75 wins.  Even Vegas is lower.

We all know there is 0 chance of the twins making the playoffs.  Fine, it's a process.  Still, some of their moves are just perplexing.  Nunez, Dunesing, Schafer, Robinson, Milone, Staufer, Pelfrey, Boyer.  Too much Terry Ryan imprint on this team.  Also admitting to looking at trades for bullpen and center field.  Again, this is a 70-75 win team....My hope is during the year we are mixing in some of the young kids for the players above, who have no chance being with us in two years.

In fairness, I believe the Fangraphs 'predictions' you talk about are actually ZiPS PROJECTIONS posted there. Those are based on what players are expected to do, but they know players will do better or worse and they can't account for sequencing.  I've chatted with a few of the writers there and none of the ones I talked to actually expect them to win 75 games.

[uberfan]

I feel like this weird move means the Twins are going to seriously explore making a trade for a center fielder. But who they could get I have no idea.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Schafer reliably has brought .229/.311/.310. He's 28

Robinson reliably has brought .231/.303/.308. He's 30.

I think people are overlooking how potentially bad this CF combo is.  Together, they probably rank among the worst opening-day Twins starters of the TR era, in terms of age, track record, and lack of options.  Given that their former teams recently deemed them unfit for even a bench spot, this is Juan Castro territory...

 

And what worries me is that as a "platoon," the Twins might take longer to call upon a new player to take over the position.  They might simply shift playing time toward the "hot hand" (which may still only be an ~85 OPS+).

 

I still support Hicks to AAA, but they didn't really give themselves much of a fallback option, for the third year in a row...

[jimmer]

 

I think people are overlooking how potentially bad this CF combo is.  Together, they probably rank among the worst opening-day Twins starters of the TR era, in terms of age, track record, and lack of options.  Given that their former teams recently deemed them unfit for even a bench spot, this is Juan Castro territory...

 

And what worries me is that as a "platoon," the Twins might take longer to call upon a new player to take over the position.  They might simply shift playing time toward the "hot hand" (which may still only be an ~85 OPS+).

 

I still support Hicks to AAA, but they didn't really give themselves much of a fallback option, for the third year in a row...

Not that it matters, but Fangraphs lists our CF position as 29th out of 30.

 

Of course, they didn't see the Shane Robinson part coming and they envisioned Hicks as the guy starting out, but I'm not sure the ranking would change in the positive with the switch-up.

 

Only the Braves with Upton/Young Jr project worse.

Edited March 30, 2015 by jimmer

[IndyTwinsFan]

The sooner the Byron Buxton era starts, the better!    Hopefully before the summer gets too far along.

[jokin]

 

I think people are overlooking how potentially bad this CF combo is.  Together, they probably rank among the worst opening-day Twins starters of the TR era, in terms of age, track record, and lack of options.  Given that their former teams recently deemed them unfit for even a bench spot, this is Juan Castro territory...

 

And what worries me is that as a "platoon," the Twins might take longer to call upon a new player to take over the position.  They might simply shift playing time toward the "hot hand" (which may still only be an ~85 OPS+).

 

I still support Hicks to AAA, but they didn't really give themselves much of a fallback option, for the third year in a row...

 

I agree that this one comes down to the "cure being worse than the disease".  But isn't there possibly another aspect to this move that you didn't address- on the defensive side?  Could it be that the Twins, who were somewhat in denial on the dreadful OF defense situation on the day of the Hunter signing, came to realize in ST, that viewed in whole, that no net defensive upgrade from 2014 had been achieved-- and maybe resultantly, Hicks simply wasn't up to the task of the critical job of manning CF with major defensive red flags Arcia and Hunter flanking him?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree that this one comes down to the "cure being worse than the disease".  But isn't there possibly another aspect to this move that you didn't address- on the defensive side?  Could it be that the Twins, who were somewhat in denial on the dreadful OF defense situation on the day of the Hunter signing, came to realize in ST, that viewed in whole, that no net defensive upgrade from 2014 had been achieved-- and maybe resultantly, Hicks simply wasn't up to the task of the critical job of manning CF with major defensive red flags Arcia and Hunter flanking him?

I'd argue that Schafer is likewise not up to that task.  (Career -14 Rdrs/yr, -5.4 UZR/150 in CF.)

 

Also, at the same time they were penciling in Schafer/Robinson this winter, they signed one of those "defensive red flags" in Hunter and moved the other to the other side of the field.  (And presumably Hunter takes away DH opportunities from Arcia too.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Not that it matters, but Fangraphs lists our CF position as 29th out of 30.

 

Of course, they didn't see the Shane Robinson part coming and they envisioned Hicks as the guy starting out, but I'm not sure the ranking would change in the positive with the switch-up.

 

Only the Braves with Upton/Young Jr project worse.

Funny that the Braves should project worse, when they are the team that cut our primary CF (Schafer) a few months ago.

[jokin]

 

I'd argue that Schafer is likewise not up to that task.  (Career -14 Rdrs/yr, -5.4 UZR/150 in CF.)

 

Also, at the same time they were penciling in Schafer/Robinson this winter, they signed one of those "defensive red flags" in Hunter and moved the other to the other side of the field.  (And presumably Hunter takes away DH opportunities from Arcia too.)

 

I think you missed my point-  I'm in full agreement that the current status quo is not going to end well.  I was saying that the Twins talked themselves last fall into believing that signing Hunter would be both a defensive upgrade by placing him in RF w/ Arcia in LF, plus he would help upgrade Hicks in CF through his mentoring (and perhaps Arcia, as well), as he had been mentored by beloved Twins CF vets previously.  Only now in late March have they come to the conclusion that this plan was currently not viable.

Edited March 30, 2015 by jokin

[Loosey]

I'm not sure what the Twins are trying to prove/do here.  First off all do they really think this roster gives them the best chance to win?  Second, even if this roster does give them a better chance to win more games than other options, what good does winning 75 games do over winning 70 games with young guys?  I do not agree with TR/PM on most of these moves.  May has nothing left to prove in AAA.   Will he get hit hard in the majors?  Probably, but so will Milone and Stauffer and Pelfrey.  Why not groom the guys who will be on the roster when they are ready to compete.  It's almost as if TR is in denial about them not being a playoff team and thinks experience = better. 

[Dave T]

Last year Hicks hit well in Spring training and won the CF job.  This year he sucked in Spring training.  I doubt we'll see him again.  It seems pretty clear to me; I don't know why Ted thought the Twins FO reduced clarity.  Robinson and Schafer have been the best center fielders in camp.  Why would the Twins pick anyone else?

 

As for Pelfrey, his first relief appearance was a walk-over.  It turns out he can get ready in 10 pitches.  He is the guy Ryan thought he was getting in Stauffer.  I am a lot less worried about the bullpen than I was a week ago.

 

The AL Central is a tough division, and one of the reasons is the Twins.  This is a good ball club. 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think you missed my point-  I'm in full agreement that the current status quo is not going to end well.  I was saying that the Twins talked themselves last fall into believing that signing Hunter would be both a defensive upgrade by placing him in RF w/ Arcia in LF, plus he would help upgrade Hicks in CF through his mentoring (and perhaps Arcia, as well), as he had been mentored by beloved Twins CF vets previously.  Only now in late March have they come to the conclusion that this plan was currently not viable.

Sorry, that makes more sense.

 

But I still doubt they thought OF defense was that big of a problem, then or now.

[jimmer]

 

 

 

The AL Central is a tough division, and one of the reasons is the Twins.  This is a good ball club. 

I couldn't disagree more about the Twins being a good ball club.  They aren't as currently constructed at the MLB level.

[jokin]

 

Sorry, that makes more sense.

 

But I still doubt they thought OF defense was that big of a problem, then or now.

 

Yeah, me too.  In the spirit of the TD blog, I was trying to put a more hopeful, positive spin that the Twins braintrust's thinking could possibly be catching up to reality...