Article: On Danny Santana And Regression

[Parker Hageman]

Paul Molitor recently shared the characteristics he is looking for in an ideal leadoff hitter: They enjoy long walks on the beach and an on-base percentage that is .370 or higher.

 

While Molitor might have difficulty finding that type of player within the Twins’ roster -- just 19 players managed to produce OBP .370 or above last year -- his rationale behind that statement is a welcomed bit of logic in Twins Territory. After all, his predecessor fell in love with batting Jacque Jones first because “he can make it 1-0”, inferring the solo home run would put the Twins up quickly (to his credit, Jones did hit 20 career home runs as the first batter of the game). The former manager also had a penchant for placing speed above all when it came to filling out his lineup at the top. Hearing Molitor's preference for on-base abilities over speed was a breath of fresh air.Of course, Molitor also indicated that he is counting on Danny Santana to play a vital role at the top of the order. "I see Danny at the top for the most part to be honest with you,” the new manager told Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson recently. “Because I like the dimension he brings to that spot."

 

Based on Santana’s rookie season, it is not difficult to see the reason to want to put him at the top spot but if the actual desire is to have a hitter with a .370+ OBP batting leadoff, Santana is probably not the right candidate.

 

 

The Twins organization obviously expects regression.

 

"Historically my gut tells me that it's not sustainable because he didn't put up those kinds of numbers in the minor leagues," general manager Terry Ryan said last fall regarding Santana's future. "If you're going to be true to yourself and what you know has happened with historically 95 percent of the players, you've got to expect a little bit of a back-off of those numbers, but that would be plenty good enough."

 

Dating back to 1961* Santana has had the third highest batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Read that again: Dating back to the John F. Kennedy administration, Santana has been able to reach safely when putting the bat on the ball more frequently than all but two people. Given the amount of scouting, video, and data available in this era to figure out how to pitch to and defend against hitters, it is somewhat remarkable that there are hitters now who can put the ball in play and it winds up a hit 40% of the time.

 

What is even more remarkable is that there were two last year who managed to do that:

 

Download attachment: Danny Santana_BABIP.png

 

Santana, of course, and Colorado’s Drew Stubbs were the two players joining Cincinnati’s Joey Votto (2012), Jose Hernandez (2002) and Manny Ramirez (2000) to achieve a batting average on balls in play over .400 since the turn of the last century.

 

To contextualize: Since the 1961 season, there have been 33 occasions when a hitter with a minimum of 400 plate appearances has managed to produce/get blessed with a BABIP over .390 in a season. That is a small pool of players. The pool grows even smaller when you consider that four players managed to reach that milestone twice in their careers (Bobby Abreu, Derek Jeter, Roberto Clemente, and Rod Carew). Only Abreu managed to perform the feat in consecutive seasons (1998 and 1999).

 

While there are legendary hitters on that list like the aforementioned Jeter, Carew and Clemente, there are plenty of other one-hit wonders that managed to catch lightning in a bottle. There’s Reggie Jefferson who had a breakout year with Boston in 1996. Milwaukee’s Hernandez reached the list by limiting the number of balls he put into play (he struck out 188 times that season). Shane Mack, Mariano Duncan, BJ Upton, Phil Bradley -- there’s no rhyme or reason to this list.

 

The takeaway is that batting average on balls in play is comprised of some element of luck. You can be a great hitter with amazing speed like Ichiro Suzuki and manage to obtain a .390 BABIP just once in a 14 year career. Or you could be like Jefferson who, in 1996, figured out that if you can bang it off the Monster it won’t get caught and it will stay in play.

 

This is all to say that repeating the numbers Santana posted 2014 feels virtually impossible -- like finding a place that serves decent unicorn burgers. (So hard to find in the western suburbs.) It takes an uniquely talented hitter with a special level of luck to repeat that sort of action. So the question is: Is Danny Santana a uniquely talented hitter?

 

Ryan said his evaluators like Santana’s surprising power potential. “I think the one thing that people didn’t realize up here that hadn’t seen him, he’s got strength,” Ryan said after last season. “He can drive the ball. He’s not a banjo hitter, he’s not a singles guy. He can drive the ball from both sides. He can reach the fences so he’s going to keep the defenses honest.”

 

Santana’s power is an interesting facet of his game. When you look over his spray chart, a high percentage of his extra base hits go down the lines rather than in the gaps. If outfielders/corner infielders hug the lines, this opens up the gaps and middle of the field more for the base hits. However, Santana has not demonstrated the consistent ability to reach the fences, which would entice the outfield to play back and give him more real estate just outside of the infield.

 

His speed is clearly one of the biggest assets of his arsenal. This has given him the ability to take an extra base as well as get to first when others might not. According to Fangraphs.com, 12.7% of his hits did not leave the infield, meaning he had to turn on the afterburners and kick chalk in a hurry to reach safely. Like this:

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/WmGjMV1.gif

 

Both he and Stubbs excelled at having grounders find their way through the infield (or as mentioned above, beating the throw down the line). This trait correlates well with overall BABIP success and when you break it down, it makes sense. The ground ball is the most common method the ball is put into play (compared to line drive and fly ball) so having a high percentage that go for hits will bolster the overall BABIP:

Download attachment: Santana_Chart.png

Via ESPN/TruMedia.

 

But counting on getting hits via ground ball is volatile -- since 2009 hitters have posted a batting average in play of .257 on wormburners. That being said, those with wheels have been able to produce consistently above average in that category. Danny Santana certainly fits that mold but his otherworldly ground ball BABIP is due for regression to the mean.

 

In addition to being able to beat out grounders, Santana is a fairly skilled bunter when it comes to bunting for a hit. More likely to bunt from the left-side of the plate (17 of 18 attempts in 2014), Santana has both been able to deaden the ball in the third base-pitcher-catcher no-man’s land or take it with him like this:

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/UaZIfqM.gif

These are the finer points in Santana’s game that will help him gain hits within the margins but when it comes to his on-base percentage, with his above-average strikeout rate in conjunction with his below-average walk rate, he has little wiggle room to avoid regression. Without a robust walk rate, he lacks the stability that free passes provide.

 

In summary, this was a lot of energy spent to say, yes, expect Danny Santana to regress at the plate in 2015. He still has a strong skill set that should help him continue to gather plenty of hits.

 

*Arbitrary? Sure. Whatever. Finish your taco.

 

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[shs_59]

yeah  Parker , Nice Article.

 

Regression is coming, 100% its coming for Danny Santana

the young man is not Rod Carew.

 

There is a small chance he hits . 300 or greater over a full season this year.

 

He's going to be worse, much worse.   The Question is ...Will he be good enough to be the everyday Short-Stop for a .~.475-.500 ballclub?

 

I think he can be, particularly if Escobar is getting at bats at 3B/ DH and 2B and ocasionally SS on a semi-regular basis.

 

Santana will make errors, and thats fine, its part of the growing cycle.  He needs to be a .265-.275 hitter for a whole season , that will be tough very tough and he needs to increase his BB% rate to keep a respectible OB %.

 

I have some doubts , but ultimately i'm confident in the young player.....his athleticsm alone can get him hits that otherwise might not have been.

 

" the strenght"  Aspect of his game - I don't really see what TR is talking about there

ALL his homers he extened way out on made contact with the ball way out in front of the plate, He used his lower half and his athleticsm to hit those balls out last year.  I don't think he gets anymore than 6 or 7 HR's this year.   IF he gets to 12 or 15 its b/c he's taking chances or seeing the ball like a beachball, again, much like most of last year.

 

I hope he can do it, but don't see the power from him really being there.

 

if Santana has a ~ .268/334/390 line with aprrx.   7 or 8 HR's i'd be happy with that.

 

His biggest weapon should probably be his Stolen Base Marks.

[ken]

I think regression is unavoidable for Santana, but with his speed he should still have a better than average BABIP.  If he can reduce the strike rate and get more balls in play, he still can contribute at the top of the lineup.

[Dantes929]

Carew was one of the best bunters of all time which is one of the reasons his name is high on that list.    I think also that Santana is probably .270 range but bunting more and well can maybe boost it by quite a bit.    Did he bunt much in the minors?  I would like to see him try nearly every game.   Please no fake bunting though.   Get your hits bunting and they will play in anyway.   Huge value in bunting, little value in fake bunting, imo.

[Thrylos]

Unlike for the pitchers, hitter's BABIP is more of a skill.  Players tend to regress to their skill's average and BABIP can vary as one hitter develops.

 

.273/.317/.391 - Danny Santana's Minor League slash line.

 

Early in his career his BABIP was in the low .300s.  The last couple seasons in the minors it has been .353 (2013) and .371 (2014) with .405 in the majors last season.   His BB/K ratio last season was .20 (this means that if that BABIP goes down to .330-.340 (Ben Revere or Rickey Henderson territory), his OBP will approach about his career minor league average (.310s-.320s.)    Agree that a .405 BABIP is not sustainable for Santana.  And Molitor should know it...

[Sam Morley]

Here are some thoughts I had back in November about Santana and regression:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/428/entry-6230-danny-santana-projecting-regression-and-estimating-value/

[glunn]

 

Here are some thoughts I had back in November about Santana and regression:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/428/entry-6230-danny-santana-projecting-regression-and-estimating-value/

 

Nice link.  Thanks for sharing it.

[Willihammer]

I watched Colabello collect an RBI on every weak ground ball through May it was clear that he was on a hot streak and that it would end as soon as he stopped hitting em where they ain't. Ie. when his luck ran out. Kubel had a similar stretch where he just couldn't get out but it was plain to everyone who watched that it wasn't going to last.. I'd even wager that a lot of Escobar's hits were the result of that and if you want to go back further, the 2009 season where Mauer hit about a dozen HR's into the first row of the student section in left field. The power wasn't that prodigious, not really. But Santana made so much crisp contact and displayed such an economy with his movements - his swing and his footwork, most all the hits seemed legit. .405 isn't going to keep up but someone mentioned a ~.360 BABIP in 2013. We know BABIP tends to be stable for players year to year so I fully expect this year's to split the difference and wind up around the .380 range.

Edited March 20, 2015 by Willihammer

[jimmer]

 

We know BABIP tends to be stable for players year to year so I fully expect this year's to split the difference and wind up around the .380 range.

Can we quote you on that 'around 380' BABIP? Plus or minus how many points?

 

Due to his speed, I believe he'll have a better than average BABIP, but .380?  Mauer has been a top notch hitting machine, and his career BABIP is under .350.  Mauer has also only had ONE season in the majors where  BABIP was at .380 or higher. Next closest was his MVP season where it was .373.

Edited March 20, 2015 by jimmer

[Willihammer]

 

Can we quote you on that 'around 380' BABIP? Plus or minus how many points?

 

Due to his speed, I believe he'll have a better than average BABIP, but .380?  Mauer has been a top notch hitting machine, and his career BABIP is under .350.  Mauer has also only had ONE season in the majors where  BABIP was at .380 or higher. Next closest was his MVP season where it was .373.

If we're comparing HoF/probable HoFers to Santana, I like the Carew comp better. 4 seasons with a BABIP over .380. I never watched the man play but I understand he was more the rabbit type, like Santana, instead of the stand and hit guy that Mauer is.

 

edit: and yes feel free to necro that when Santana takes home the batting title this year!

Edited March 20, 2015 by Willihammer

[Paul Pleiss]

I spent the entire second half of last season waiting for Danny Santana to come back down to earth. As we all know, that never really happened.

 

I think if SanDana can get hot to start the season, he may be able to recapture some of that magic and make liars of us all. Of course... I think the likely hood of that happening is pretty low, but it's spring training, and at least for now, everyone has a shot at dominance.

[highlander]

 

If we're comparing HoF/probable HoFers to Santana, I like the Carew comp better. 4 seasons with a BABIP over .380. I never watched the man play but I understand he was more the rabbit type,

Carew's eyes and hands were so incredible the only real comparison would be Teddy "ballgame" Williams. If Santana is half the hitter Carew was he will be a perennial borderline All-Star. And that would be a fine career!

[jimmer]

 

If we're comparing HoF/probable HoFers to Santana, I like the Carew comp better. 4 seasons with a BABIP over .380. I never watched the man play but I understand he was more the rabbit type, like Santana, instead of the stand and hit guy that Mauer is.

 

edit: and yes feel free to necro that when Santana takes home the batting title this year!

In any given season only a very small handful of players end up with a BABIP of .380 or higher, if any do. No qualifying hitter in the majors did it last year.  

 

But I like your confidence, both in your prediction and him. GO SANTANA!

Edited March 20, 2015 by jimmer

[markos]

I did some fairly simple scaling of Santana's 2014 stats based on various BABIP regressions, and even with a .330 BABIP (which is completely reasonable for him) he ends up as a .700 OPS hitter, which is average production for a shortstop. Even with all the expected regression, his floor isn't terrible. 

[iTwins]

I'm usually the first one to caution regression when a player is playing 'out of their mind' and a little voice in the back of my head has been calling for Danny to regress since he broke onto the scene in a flash.

 

Yet, he never did.

 

I can't shake the notion that he's not going to come crashing down to earth like we're all expecting. There's elements to his game that are sustainable (at least in the near future). He has a clean, almost effortless swing and seems to generate solid contact. He's not jumping pitches and trying to pull the ball - he's slapping it all over the field.

 

Then of course, there's his speed. When you're that fast, (as Parker states) you're bound to get a few more infield hits just by beating out some groundballs.

 

While expecting his .400 BABIP to continue would be foolish - I do think Danny's speed and ability to make solid contact will keep him from crashing as hard as some are predicting.

[jimmer]

 

I did some fairly simple scaling of Santana's 2014 stats based on various BABIP regressions, and even with a .330 BABIP (which is completely reasonable for him) he ends up as a .700 OPS hitter, which is average production for a shortstop. Even with all the expected regression, his floor isn't terrible. 

Yeah, even if he comes back down to Earth, doesn't mean he'll be horrible. The best player in baseball only had a BABIP of .349 last year.  Saying Santana may crash to a .330 BABIP isn't actually saying he'll be bad at all.  Only 35 qualifying hitters did that well or better last year, two of them former speedy Twins OFs.

Edited March 20, 2015 by jimmer

[Cap'n Piranha]

Why are we burying the lead here? Unicorn burgers? Why is Voldemort online, and writing Twins Daily articles?

[DaveTMpls]

I think Santana's ceiling is Carew, not Mauer. Santana is a lot faster than Mauer, and relies on bunts for some of his hits. The key question in my mind is whether Santana's OBP is sustainable. As he learns to stop swinging at balls, his walk rate will go up.

[jimmer]

 

I think Santana's ceiling is Carew, not Mauer. Santana is a lot faster than Mauer, and relies on bunts for some of his hits. The key question in my mind is whether Santana's OBP is sustainable. As he learns to stop swinging at balls, his walk rate will go up.

Well,  he did have 7 more bunt hits than Mauer last year. Or, put another way, about 6% of his hits were bunts.

 

It's nice to think Santana has a HOF ceiling though.

[Mike Frasier Law]

I have been called a Santana hater because I don't think its remotely possible he will repeat last year.

 

That being said, I think there's another reason to believe his BABIP will not regress quite as much as people expect in addition to his speed. Parker points to his speed and hints at his ability to control the bat through bunting. In addition, Santana's line drive rate last year was 26%. That's pretty amazing. The league leader (among qualified batters) was Freddie Freeman at 26.7%. He had a BABIP of .338.

 

Here's why that is awesome. In 2014, here are the results of balls put in play by batted ball type:

 

Type       Average           ISO

GB         .239                  .020

LD          .685                 .190

FB          .207                 .378

 

 

2014 Stats:          LD%           GB%           FB%

League                 20.8%          44.8%           34.4%

Santana               26%             45.9%           28.1%

 

Because of his speed, he's turning the ground balls into singles. And because he's hitting more line drives than nearly anyone else, his batting average (and BABIP) should not regress to league average.

[Parker Hageman]

In addition, Santana's line drive rate last year was 26%. That's pretty amazing. The league leader (among qualified batters) was Freddie Freeman at 26.7%. He had a BABIP of .338.

 

 

Interestingly enough, since 2009 line drive BABIP has the lowest correlation between the overall BABIP -- i.e. high line drive BABIP did not necessary equal a high overall BABIP -- and that ground ball BABIP was a stronger correlation. Liners obvious become hits at a higher percentage but it makes sense considering there are much more grounders vs liners in play. Just found that interesting when looking over the data. 

 

Going back to Santana's line drive%, I'm not certain it will remain that much higher than league average going forward. Since 2011, he's minor league line drive% was 13%. I would anticipate that his 2015 season has a line drive rate somewhere closer to 20%.

 

There's an element of opponents adjusting to him. He struggled with breaking pitches but he didn't see a lot of them (pitchers tend not to throw switch-hitters a high percentage of breaking balls that go into the swing). Likewise for fastballs up-and-in when he is batting left-handed. I would expect him to see a few more of those in 2015.

[Thrylos]

 

I think Santana's ceiling is Carew, not Mauer.

 

I think that we have seen Santana's ceiling...

[jimmer]

 

I think that we have seen Santana's ceiling...

Offensively yeah, very likely, but hopefully not defensively.

[Willihammer]

I think that we have seen Santana's ceiling...

Heh, even when Santana has a .405 BABIP season, his 130 OPS+ still doesn't quite equal Carew's CAREER OPS+ of 131. How good was that guy?

[jimmer]

 

Heh, even when Santana has a .405 BABIP season, his 130 OPS+ still doesn't quite equal Carew's CAREER OPS+ of 131. How good was that guy?

Danny Santana wRC+ was better than Carew's career wRC+ though :-)

[dxpavelka]

Of course he's likely to regress in some areas.  Any player who performs for a season at an almost unheard of pace in a certain area is likely to regress in that area.  Almost every player in the game will regress in one part of his game or another.  Many will also progress in some parts of their games as well.  Ulitmately the better players will be those that progress more than they regress.  It's not rocket science kids.  We can debate it all we want.  But in the end all we can really do is let the  games be played and see what happens.  Enjoy the season.

[jimmer]

'Ulitmately the better players will be those that progress more than they regress.It's not rocket science kids'

 

Regression isn't a negative term. It's a mathematical term relative to a mean.

 

If a player, like 2014 Mauer, has an unusually bad season relative to how he normally does (or would be expected to do), he is likely to regress to having a better season. Because regression is to the mean and Mauer's mean is higher than what he did in 2014.  Better players have a better mean.

Edited March 21, 2015 by jimmer

[jimmer]

As we know, the regression expected of Santana is because of his BABIP over .400.  Historically, that's impossible to sustain.  But people with his skill set are likely to have a BABIP over league average.

 

ZiPS projects his BABIP this year at .341, which is still very good. Mauer is a fantastic hitter and his career BABIP is about 10 points below that.  So it's not like saying he'll regress is such a bad thing, it's just saying a .405 BABIP is through the roof amazing and not sustainable.  His .353 OBP was hugely affected by that.  As his BABIP drops down, he's going to need to walk more to keep his OBP up.  

 

Hall of Famer Rod Carew had a career BABIP a hair under .360.  Still 45 points lower than Santana's 2014 BABIP.  Yet his career OBP was in the .390s (40 points higher than Santana's).

 

 

Edited March 21, 2015 by jimmer