Article: One Stat to Watch: Brian Dozier's Batting Average

[Seth Stohs]

Batting average has become an almost controversial statistic in the past several years. It used to be pretty much the only statistic that some people looked at (along with homers), and now there are some who seem to find it almost meaningless. The reality is that it is somewhere in between. When some fans talk about Brian Dozier, they would like to see his batting average increase. But what does Dozier think? And what do his manager and the general manager think about it?If one believes that the minor league track record is useful in determining future success, most believe that Dozier can increase his batting average beyond the .240s that he’s hit the last two seasons.

 

Obviously rookie league stats mean little, but Dozier hit .349 in 58 games there. He began his first full season at Beloit and in 39 games he hit .278. He was promoted to Ft. Myers where he finished the 2010 season and started the 2011 season. In 142 games, he hit .291. He finished that 2011 season in New Britain here he hit .318 in 78 games. He didn’t have much success in his 48 games in Rochester (early and then late in the season) in the 2012 season, hitting just .232.

 

As we recall, Dozier struggled in his initial taste in big league ball. In 84 games, he hit just .232 and got on base just 27% of the time. He took over second base in 2013 and in 147 games, he hit .244/.312/.414 (.726) with 33 doubles, four triples and 18 home runs. The overall numbers don’t jump out at you, but a closer look shows that he made some adjustments right before June and took off after that, especially in the power department.

 

2014 was his best season. He hit just .242, but he got on base at a .345 clip and slugged .416 with 33 doubles and 23 home runs. He became an instigator at the top of the lineup.

 

He was terrific in terms of getting on base, and he hit for as much power as any second baseman in the game. However, the question remains, can he increase his batting average without it affecting his on-base skills or his power production?

 

Isolated Discipline (IsoD) is an interesting statistic for me, especially for a top of the order type of hitter. It is simply on-base percentage minus batting average. It shows how often a batter walks or gets hit by pitches. In other words, how often can he get on base when he doesn’t get a hit. His 2014 IsoD jumped to an impressive .103 which is tremendous. I always figure anything over .080 is pretty good.

 

Isolated Power (IsoP) is a very similar statistic. It doesn’t take advanced mathematical capabilities to compute either. It is simply the slugging percentage minus the batting average. It is a rough number to show how much extra-base power a guy has. Dozier’s 2014 IsoP of .174 is very good for a middle infielder and a top of the order guy. That’s no surprise since he has hit so many doubles and home runs.

 

Dozier hit .242/345/.416 in 2014. Let’s just say that he increased his batting average to .275, something his minor league statistics indicate isn’t out of the realm of possibility, and maintains his 2014 levels. That would give a season stat line of .275/.378/.449, and give him an OPS of .827. That would be a very strong statistical season.

 

So there is the background for this article, but I go back to my initial question. Can Brian Dozier increase his batting average without it affecting his on-base skills or his power production.

 

The general manager, Terry Ryan, is certain that he can. “I’m sure he can. There’s no reason he isn’t going to hit for a higher batting average, in our opinion. I don’t think it’s going to affect his power or his on-base. He’s had two decent years, but he can be better.”

 

Dozier seems to believe that he can as well. He said, “Absolutely. That’s what I go back to. At the end of the year, me and Bruno sat down and talk about that. One way, if you look at the minor leagues, I averaged probably 15-20 base hit bunts. The past two years (it) is probably about three or four, total. I’ve got to start implementing that more. You look at that, it’s a way to kind of increase it.”

 

But in addition to being able to increase his batting average, when asked about his approach or strategy, Dozier said that it really shouldn’t change too significantly. “As far as approach, I don’t really think if you hit for high average the power needs to come down. I’m going to keep my aggressiveness. There are certain thinks that I’ve been working on, in situations, and I think that’s come with being my fourth year in now.”

 

Experience can and usually does help with the development of overall game. Terry Ryan believed that Brian Dozier is pretty good now, but that there is no reason that he can’t and won’t continue to get better. “He’s shown the power. He’s shown the base stealing ability. He’s been one of those guys that has those streaks, and his consistency can increase. There’s no question that he can become a better player.”

 

One way for Dozier to do that is to do what he did on Wednesday when he went 3-3. Not so much the results, though anyone would happily take three hits no matter how they come, but with his approach.

 

Ryan said, “He took at-bats and he squared up balls (Wednesday). He didn’t do the dead pull stuff. We know he can do it. Now, whether or not you want to trade off with the power. But on base percentage and his ability to drive the baseball and his strength, I would say that’s conducive to him raising the average somewhere along the line.”

 

Using the whole field and getting on base is a terrific thing, but Dozier thinks that the situation in the game will always dictate what he can or should do, and what his approach at the plate will be. With his increased power production, third basemen aren’t playing him in as much anymore. He could probably get more bunt hits and want to do that, but not every day. Not in every circumstance.

 

“It’s a good thing that they aren’t playing me in because I’m a “pull” hitter. I get a lot of hits down the line and in the hole. A lot of times last year, I had a lot of situations where I could drop one down if he was playing me back. The game dictates the game itself. For instance, a runner at first base, we’re down by a couple runs and you’ve got a chance to tie it up. You know you can walk into first for a single (if you bunt it), but I think my job was kind of different last year, trying to be that RBI guy, and trying to hit the two-run homer, or have second and third with Joe coming up.”

 

Paul Molitor really likes Dozier’s approach at the plate. Following Dozier’s three-hit game the manager was asked about it. “He stayed on a couple of pitches back up the middle. He’s a guy that most of his power is pull, but obviously when we can use more of the field especially deeper in the count, it’s going to be advantageous for him to increase opportunities to get on base. It was good to see. And even in his last at-bat, taking the ball out to right center. Yeah, we all know he can hit a fastball. We all know he’s got real good pop. Just looking for ways to find ways to get to the next level. He’s learned the strike zone much better. Now he’s just going to figure out how to be a little better deep in the count, cut down on the strikeouts and give himself a chance.”

 

Speaking of his power, after his home run on Thursday, he was asked if he was going to start showing off his power to right centerfield. Dozier chuckled and said, “I had a smart guy once tell me, Josh Willingham, the shortest distance usually is always to left field. Why would I try to hit them to right?”

 

It’s strange at this stage in baseball’s statistical evolution to talk about batting average being "One Stat To Watch" for a player, but it sems that increasing his batting average is something that will show that Brian Dozier is taking that next step as a ballplayer. I thought Molitor summed it up the best when he said that he needs to use the whole field and find a way to cut down on the strikeouts. Yes, it’s a fine line and the next sentence will sound funny. As Dozier says, he doesn’t want to lose his aggressiveness while at the same time continuing to show the patience that has allowed him to walk so much.

 

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[Halsey Hall]

I love this article.  It's like you picked my brain!  And as he says, situations dictate the approach.  Take yesterday leading off, why not jack one if you can.  But the day before he gets two hits to center and another to right center.  If he can do that, and has confidence doing it, laying off trying to pull the ball all the time, his average has to climb.  I can see a raise of .025 in his average this year, while not falling back in other areas.  He does that and I might get on the extension train. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think it will come up. His minor league career certainly indicates that it can. It's all about adjustments. Even a .020 increase in BA without losing his other stats would be pretty significant.

[GMinTraining]

It shows me that despite having a poor BA at AAA, players can make adjustments at the MLB level if they are just afforded Reps/ABs. I would ride some of these young guys this season and let them make that second year (2016) leap as Dozier did in his 2nd year.. 2016 would then be a special year. Especially if they have a special tool (5 tool) that adds to the team.

[stringer bell]

I am a Brian Dozier fan. There is a lot to like about his game, not the least of which is the way that he has improved. I've said before that while their personalities were polar opposites, Dozier reminds me of Chuck Knoblauch. Knobby kept improving facets of his game until he was a legitimate All-Star, and Dozier appears to be doing the same. In 2013, Dozier added power to his "toolbox" clubbing all of his homers from mid-May on. In 2014, as Seth noted, he added OBP by being in the top five in walks in the AL. I expect that Dozier will try to be a better two-strike hitter, raising his average while reducing his strikeouts.

 

There is room to improve on defense, as well. I thought BD was terrific in 2013, and something less than that last year. Finally, there is clutch hitting. I know it is supposed to be random and no one is truly "clutch", but Dozier's numbers in close and late etc. were quite a bit worse than his overall stats. I think he overthought his ABs and got himself out quite often.

[Thrylos]

Seth, really agree with your train of thought here.  But you got to go one more level deep: there is another stat that drives BA, and pretty much tells what kind of hitter one is.  This is BABIP.  Unlike, pitchers' BABIPs (that indicate how lucky a pitcher is, since BABIPs should approximate the league average of around .290), hitters' BABIPs indicate performance.  And the higher the batting average in balls in play, the higher the batting average.  Hitters with high BABIPs are slap hitters. Ben Revere's and Denard Span's career BABIP is .320 or so.   Gary Gaetti's career BABIP (who I think might be a good comparable for Dozier's power ceiling) is .270.  I  spent some time graphing Dozier's BABIP and IsoP thought out the years.  Here:

 

 

So it looks like when Dozier used to hit for a high average with a High BABIP, he hit like Span and Revere. And as his IsoP increased, his BABIP decreased to the point that his BA was suppressed.  Gaetti had a career .179 IsoP, a career .270 BABIP and a career .255 Batting Average.  I think that this is where Dozier might be heading or towards the career numbers of his current hitting coach, .188 IsoP, .259 BABIP, .245 BA, if you want another example

Edited March 14, 2015 by Thrylos

[Wookiee of the Year]

This was a good read. I'm glad the emphasis is on Dozier increasing his batting average without it affecting his OBP or his power. Honestly, I'm not too worried about getting Dozier to the next level or seeing him break out; I think he's broken out, and I'd take his 2014 season again in 2015 and 2016 and as long as he can deliver it.

 

In some ways, hearing he's striving to make adjustments to increase his batting average makes me nervous, because I don't want to see him give anything back in order to do that. But I also know that the kind of player who's satisfied with the player he is is unlikely to remain as that kind of player. So on that count, it's good to hear Dozier's one who seeks continual improvement.

 

Excited (with some trepidation) to see what his 2015 looks like.

[Paul Pleiss]

Las year Dozier had just over 700 plat appearances, and 598 at bats. Let's call it 600 for simplification.

 

Dozier hit .242/.345/.416 last season and had a 145 hits.

 

For a 600 AB sample, you need 180 hits to reach the all mighty .300 batting average. For a 250 average, you have to scrape together just 150 hits. That's a 30 hit difference over the course of an entire season. The difference between .250 and .300 is a hit every 5.4 games, or just over a hit a week. That's a pretty small difference over the course of a season.

 

If Dozier continues to post a slash line in the ballpark of .250/.350/.450 I'll be more than happy with his production.  I think that's a reasonable hope for Dozier. He doesn't need to hit .270 or better if he can continue to get on base at a good rate and drive the ball for power. I'd rather see him increase his SLG% than his batting average.

 

 

[stringer bell]

To Thrylos points above, two things:  1)  Dozier, more than most, made adjustments in 2013 which changed his hitting.  The change is more dramatic than most and seems to sacrifice BABIP for slugging.  Your graph shows this.  2)  The thing that Dozier needs to do which would increase his BA (and OPS) without changing his BABIP much is put the ball in play more.  Dozier led the club in Ks last year, if he could reduce that number to 90 or so, he could add 10-12 hits and still carry that low BABIP to an average of .260 or so.  It's not as easy as saying it and it will happen, but there is room for considerable improvement without wrecking what Dozier is good at.

[tobi0040]

You have to be careful. Most mlb hitters with power could hit for a higher average if they wanted to

 

Adam Dunn could have shortened his swing and went the other way more and hit for a higher average, but his .250 was different than Lexi Casilla's

[Richie the Rally Goat]

To Thrylos' point - I'm much more worried about Mauer's batting average than Dozier's. It's all based on BABIP. If Dozier can continue his power stroke combined with high OBP, I'm ok with a bit lower BA because so many of Dozier's hits aren't in play relative to Mauer. On the other hand, Mauer's hitting is so predicated on singles and doubles, he's going to be challenged more, especially against teams like the Royals who are built for defense. Mauer needs a high batting average to maintain productivity.

[Paul Pleiss]

 

To Thrylos' point - I'm much more worried about Mauer's batting average than Dozier's. It's all based on BABIP. If Dozier can continue his power stroke combined with high OBP, I'm ok with a bit lower BA because so many of Dozier's hits aren't in play relative to Mauer. On the other hand, Mauer's hitting is so predicated on singles and doubles, he's going to be challenged more, especially against teams like the Royals who are built for defense. Mauer needs a high batting average to maintain productivity.

Mauer being productive is more about OBP than BA. And being preidcated on singles and doubles? So you have a player who hits a lot of singles and doubles, that sounds like a good player to me. Joe Mauer has power, just not home run power. I'm much less worried about Mauer than Dozier. But I think there's reason to worry for both. Both need to do better in 2015, but in different ways.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Mauer being productive is more about OBP than BA. And being preidcated on singles and doubles? So you have a player who hits a lot of singles and doubles, that sounds like a good player to me. Joe Mauer has power, just not home run power. I'm much less worried about Mauer than Dozier. But I think there's reason to worry for both. Both need to do better in 2015, but in different ways.

agreed, Mauer's productivity is based on OBP, it's just obp based more on hitting than walks, hence the BABIP statement. Mauer for the first time since Morneau pre concussion, has good power hitters batting behind him. No pitcher will give him as many free passes as he previously received.

 

Mauer is a good player, even after his worst season as a pro, he's still one of the best players on the team, just more of a Wade Boggs than a Paul Konerko.

 

As for Dozier, he does need to improve, BA is one of the areas, power comes and goes, but BA for a high strikeout guy can help bridge power gaps. I am just less worried about it because Dozier has shown more home run ability.

 

Ask me again in September when Dozier has come back down to earth? I'll be calling for Polanco to take over at 2nd and call TR to question why he didn't sell Dozier high. I'm ok with being a hypocrite.

[Thrylos]

 

agreed, Mauer's productivity is based on OBP, it's just obp based more on hitting than walks, hence the BABIP statement. Mauer for the first time since Morneau pre concussion, has good power hitters batting behind him. No pitcher will give him as many free passes as he previously received.

Mauer is a good player, even after his worst season as a pro, he's still one of the best players on the team, just more of a Wade Boggs than a Paul Konerko.

As for Dozier, he does need to improve, BA is one of the areas, power comes and goes, but BA for a high strikeout guy can help bridge power gaps. I am just less worried about it because Dozier has shown more home run ability.

Ask me again in September when Dozier has come back down to earth? I'll be calling for Polanco to take over at 2nd and call TR to question why he didn't sell Dozier high. I'm ok with being a hypocrite.

 

.289/.397/.408, 135 OPS+, .356 BABIP (career average .348) 0.81 BB/K,  second half of 2015.  I am really not worried about Joe Mauer

 

Edited March 15, 2015 by Thrylos

[stringer bell]

Slightly off topic, but where does Dozier and his .241 lifetime average hit in the Twins' lineup?

Edited March 15, 2015 by stringer bell