Article: Twins Wisely Taking Aggressive International Approach

[Nick Nelson]

When the Boston Red Sox signed Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada with a $31.5 million bonus last month, they were taking advantage of a flawed system that likely won't be in place much longer.

 

Although it's on a much smaller scale, the Twins appear to be preparing to make a similarly savvy move with 16-year-old Dominican shortstop Wander Javier when the international signing period opens on July 2nd.Depending on which reports you choose to believe, the Twins either have very serious interest in Javier (La Velle says they are "definitely in on this one"), or they already have a tentative agreement in place (Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs wrote that the shortstop is "widely believed to have a deal with the Twins").

 

If true, this signals that the Twins are not only on the verge of making their biggest financial splash ever on the international market, but also utilizing what may be one of their last opportunities to do so under the current favorable -- if somewhat ridiculous -- guidelines.

 

Boston's signing of Moncada stirred up some controversy around a subject that has been touchy for some time, with Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Drew Smyly summarizing the basic conundrum in a tweet: "It's not right that a Cuban 19yr old gets paid 30m and the best 19yr old in the entire USA gets prob 1/6th of that. Everyone should have to go through same process."

 

Unlike in the MLB amateur draft, there are no restrictions or limits on the bonuses that international players receive; it is an open bidding war among all 30 teams. Each club has a bonus pool that it is penalized for exceeding, but as the Red Sox showed, that tends to be a minor impediment.

 

This isn't exactly fair for special young baseball talents who happen to be cultivated here in the States and must go through a far more regimented process.

 

Last year, when the Twins selected 18-year-old shortstop Nick Gordon with the fifth overall pick, they signed him to a $3.85 million bonus, which was the slot-recommended amount. Meanwhile, reports suggest that the Twins are ready to hand Javier around $4 million.

 

One could argue that Javier (who can be seen in the video below courtesy of FanGraphs) has more upside than Gordon did, but he's two years younger and considerably less seasoned.

 

 

Clearly the Twins like this kid, and you certainly can't blame them for making aggressive moves to bring him aboard, especially since the same approach may not be possible after next year. Momentum is building toward the institution of an international draft. New commissioner Rob Manfred has expressed interest in taking this direction, and it might happen when the current collective bargaining agreement expires in 2016.

 

If indeed the Twins make an historical investment to bring Javier aboard, they might be trying to get out in front of this coming development. And while it's extremely difficult to say how the teenaged infielder might develop -- he's got a great athletic build, with the defensive skills to stick at short, but his offensive ability is basically all projection at this point -- the last time the Twins took an international prospect plunge on this level was when they spent $3.15 million in 2009 to bring aboard Miguel Sano, who has transformed into a potentially franchise-altering talent.

 

There's little doubt that Major League Baseball needs an international draft. But until then, the Twins are wise to take advantage of the open market and outbid all others to get the player they want. It appears that they are committed to doing just that.

 

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[Paul Pleiss]

I don't think Javier will have the same franchise impact as Sano has had/will have, but it's a fun idea. You can never have too many SS prospects in your system.

[highlander]

If the glove is solid and the work ethic is there you can build and develop the swing. It kind of reminds me of the Twins grabbing Tony Oliva just before the Cuban Embargo.  For the price of a reliever on the big club you have a chance to pluck one of the best players "Off The Island" I really don't see any negatives about gaming the system in place.

[Seth Stohs]

If the Twins do sign him for the rumored $4 million price tag, it will be a bit over their slot for international signing. They would need to make a trade or two to acquire more international slot value.

[Paul Pleiss]

The Twins had a total international bonus pool of $3,686,600. for 2014-2015 which runs until July 2nd. For 2015-2016 thier pool is up to $3,948,500, or right near the $4mil figure.

 

Someone please correct me if I am wrong, but I think the following is true concerning going over the international pool amounts

 

• 0-5 percent over pool: 75 percent tax on the pool overage.
• 5-10 percent over pool: 75 percent tax on the pool overage. Team won’t be allowed to sign a player for more than $500,000 during the next signing period.
• 10-15 percent over pool: 100 percent tax on the pool overage. Team won’t be allowed to sign a player for more than $500,000 during the next signing period.
• 15 percent or more over pool: 100 percent tax on the pool overage. Team won’t be allowed to sign a player for more than $250,000 during the next signing period.

 

So the Twins would have some wiggle room to get up and over that $4mil number without incuring signability issues for next year, but if they plan to make any other moves, then as Seth suggested, the Twins will need to get some international slot money from someone else.

[eLee612]

I've worked with a handful of kids from the IPl, six of which have now signed (Rockies, Cubs x2, Nationals, Tigers, and Dodgers) ... but have had my eye on Javier for the last year.

 

It's no question that he's woth an investment. Whether or now that investment is 4mil is up to debate, but it's pretty damn close to it. I have no doubt that SOMEONE will make him that offer, and I'd much rather have it be us.

[Paul Pleiss]

Also, side note, and maybe the moderators can help me, which is the correct forum to start a discussion about an international draft of the international slot value pools? MiLB forum? Other baseball?

[Paul Pleiss]

 

I've worked with a handful of kids from the IPl, six of which have now signed (Rockies, Cubs x2, Nationals, Tigers, and Dodgers) ... but have had my eye on Javier for the last year. It's no question that he's woth an investment. Whether or now that investment is 4mil is up to debate, but it's pretty damn close to it. I have no doubt that SOMEONE will make him that offer, and I'd much rather have it be us.

IPI?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I've worked with a handful of kids from the IPl, six of which have now signed (Rockies, Cubs x2, Nationals, Tigers, and Dodgers) ... but have had my eye on Javier for the last year. It's no question that he's woth an investment. Whether or now that investment is 4mil is up to debate, but it's pretty damn close to it. I have no doubt that SOMEONE will make him that offer, and I'd much rather have it be us.

You work as an international scout?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Also, side note, and maybe the moderators can help me, which is the correct forum to start a discussion about an international draft of the international slot value pools? MiLB forum? Other baseball?

usually ends up in either one... depends on context... it will be moved if the mods think it's in the wrong place. No big deal.

[nytwinsfan]

 

The Twins had a total international bonus pool of $3,686,600. for 2014-2015 which runs until July 2nd. For 2015-2016 thier pool is up to $3,948,500, or right near the $4mil figure.

 

Someone please correct me if I am wrong, but I think the following is true concerning going over the international pool amounts

 

• 0-5 percent over pool: 75 percent tax on the pool overage.
• 5-10 percent over pool: 75 percent tax on the pool overage. Team won’t be allowed to sign a player for more than $500,000 during the next signing period.
• 10-15 percent over pool: 100 percent tax on the pool overage. Team won’t be allowed to sign a player for more than $500,000 during the next signing period.
• 15 percent or more over pool: 100 percent tax on the pool overage. Team won’t be allowed to sign a player for more than $250,000 during the next signing period.

 

So the Twins would have some wiggle room to get up and over that $4mil number without incuring signability issues for next year, but if they plan to make any other moves, then as Seth suggested, the Twins will need to get some international slot money from someone else.

Yeah, pretty sure you are correct, they could make it to $4 million with just the 5% overage, not incurring any penalties but taxes. Someone pointed this out to Kiley on Fangraphs as well. That being said, it isn't like the Twins not to sign at least a few smaller bonus, less well known international prospects, so I would expect them to trade for more bonus. It shouldn't be too hard, especially this year where at least five teams cannot spend more than $300 K on anyone due to penalties from previous years, and thus may be more willing than usual to trade excess bonus.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

I've worked with a handful of kids from the IPl, six of which have now signed (Rockies, Cubs x2, Nationals, Tigers, and Dodgers) ... but have had my eye on Javier for the last year. It's no question that he's woth an investment. Whether or now that investment is 4mil is up to debate, but it's pretty damn close to it. I have no doubt that SOMEONE will make him that offer, and I'd much rather have it be us.

If you've seen Javier play, especially if you have experience as a scout, I think I can speak for everyone here in saying we would LOVE for you to elaborate more on your thoughts about his potential.

[hybridbear]

If right now this market is just a bidding war between the teams it seems the prices would be higher than once a draft is instituted. Perhaps I'm not understanding it correctly, but how is the current situation better for the Twins than having a draft?

[markos]

 

There's little doubt that Major League Baseball needs an international draft.

 

I disagree with this. There may be little doubt that MLB wants an international draft, but I don't think it needs one. I think an international draft will predominately hurt the overall development and compensation of international prospects, and primarily benefit the owners and MLB players. Personally, I think the Moncada situation just shows how underpaid players are in the amateur draft. It seems rather unfair that these systems are negotiated as part of the CBA where minor league players are not represented. 

[jay]

how is the current situation better for the Twins than having a draft?

It's probably not.

 

The signing bonus pools for each team are sized on their previous year performance, so hypothetically it was supposed to provide an advantage to teams that are struggling. In reality, some teams have blown past the bonus pools with little regard for the penalties due to the perceived value of these prospects even after the penalties.

 

I'd welcome a draft and increase in the eligibility age for these int'l kids. The challenge there is that individual teams wouldn't have much of an incentive to run academies like they do now. MLB would be wise to maintain that development system at a league-wide level.

[Nick Nelson]

If right now this market is just a bidding war between the teams it seems the prices would be higher than once a draft is instituted. Perhaps I'm not understanding it correctly, but how is the current situation better for the Twins than having a draft?

The idea isn't necessarily that players are cheaper now than they will be at that time, but that you can have access to any player you want as long as you're willing to pony up. That likely won't be the case after next year.

[markos]

 

If right now this market is just a bidding war between the teams it seems the prices would be higher than once a draft is instituted. Perhaps I'm not understanding it correctly, but how is the current situation better for the Twins than having a draft?

Prices would probably be higher, but I think the current situation (especially the previous iteration prior to the bonus pools) has definite advantages for the Twins.

 

First, many deals don't come down completely to just a straight bidding war, but often are influenced by relationships teams have developed with the players, trainers and their families. Many of the top players (like Javier) already have deals arranged with teams, which indicates they aren't necessarily going for top dollar. A team that has made significant investments internationally (like the Twins) will be at a major advantage to teams that haven't (like the Orioles). If there is a draft, then that advantage goes away almost completely.

 

Second, the current system allows teams to acquire top talent without having a terrible record. The Twins definitely took advantage of this in 2009 when they signed Sano, Polanco and Kepler. Had an international draft been in place at that point, the Twins would have had the #22 pick and definitely would not have been able to select Sano, and probably not Polanco either. This advantage has mostly disappeared with the new bonus pools, but since teams are willing to go over the limit (and acquire extra money via trades), it is still relevant. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

If the Twins do sign him for the rumored $4 million price tag, it will be a bit over their slot for international signing. They would need to make a trade or two to acquire more international slot value.

 

Of, they could stop sitting on piles of money and blow through their slot and sign a bunch of highly ranked prospects. That would be a real change. Spending in their slot? Not much of a change.

[Mike Sixel]

The draft, as it stands, is bad for everyone, frankly. If you had a hybrid draft/FA, where certain teams could make certain sized offers, and others could make smaller ones, or where the worst 10 teams were able to sign 3 players for x money, and everyone else could only sign one for that much.....that would be better for everyone. 

[beckmt]

Draft if not put in place with a full combined draft would start to favor the bad teams.  Relationships do influence, but if a major spending team offered enough money across the board, you probably could raise the hue and cry. 

System will almost certainly be addressed in the next CBA where the minor league and foreign player will not be represented.  Holes will need to be closed up front as system could still be gamed by super agents(senting players to Asia for some number of years to circumvent the draft). 

[nicksaviking]

Yeah, the current system isn't equal for US born players and the foriegn born ones.  Of course there are certain other benefits to growing up in the states compared to The Domincan Republic or Cuba.  I'm guessing that should they so chose, there would be nothing stopping Smyly or Brady Aiken from moving to Venezuala and applying for citizenship in an attempt to cash in on the international cash pool.  That is if they don't mind the constant threat of being kidnapped and ransomed.

 

 

I'm all for an international draft, but I tend to roll my eyes hearing a 1st world person complain about the handfull of 1-in-a-million lottory tickets that happen to be available to some of these impoverished kids.

Edited March 11, 2015 by nicksaviking

[eLee612]

 

IPI?

 

IPL is the International Prospect League. 

[eLee612]

 

You work as an international scout?

 

 

If you've seen Javier play, especially if you have experience as a scout, I think I can speak for everyone here in saying we would LOVE for you to elaborate more on your thoughts about his potential.

 

You two would make for a really fun game of phone tag.

 

If anyone wants to hook me up with Vern or whoever we have down in the DR right now with international scouting, let em' know he has a little bilingual energizer bunny with high heat tolerance ready to jump the next plane!! 

 

I am not a scout - just have been fortunate enough to work with and watch a bunch of dedicated and hard working kids as they develop and mature, see some of them sign, and then develop and mature some mo'. Wander is two years younger than the class of kids I know the best, but just like the few I've seen sign, has that same natural flow with the ball and on the field. The bat will come.

 

Just a PS if anyone else wants to get excited... a little bird told me the IPL will have another showcase in Florida this summer, dates to be released. 

[kab21]

I think we are headed towards an international draft but I'm not sure it's the best idea because the global pool of players is so much larger and spread out.  It's not like in the US where teams have personally scouted most of the players (to some extent) in the first 5-10 rounds.  Just like the MLB didn't expect (or did they) the consequences of the current penalties as being enough to discourage teams from spending over their cap I think there could be really big consequences of an int'l draft.

 

The only thing that is need to make the current system work is to put a hard cap on the bonus pools that teams simply can't exceed or find a really significant penalty.  Nothing wrong with the current system other than the slap on the wrist penalty that they thought would be enough.

 

Really excited if the Twins sign Javier.